The Official 2024 Reds season thread

Ok let's recap the Reds weekend. Friday we lose big, Carson Spires is overmatched by the Brewers and we just run a mid May lineup out there like we lead the division by 4 games.
Saturday, we get the start of a lifetime from Nick Martinez, and yet we get shutout, once again and lose 1-0.
Today we get down 2-0 with Lodolo on the mound and scramble back to win 4-3. If Santiago Espinal played like this the first 3 months of the season, he'd been in the all star game. Not a good series from Elly at all. Steer starting to show some signs. Big HR today for Tyler Stephenson as he continues to play well.
I think we won today in spite of David Bell. So the Reds grab the lead back at 3-2, 6th inning the Brewers put men on 2nd and 3rd, Lodolo is taken out after 80 pitches and 5 1/3 innings for ....class.... Buck Farmer of course? Immediately gives up a hit and ties the game. Then in a pair of miracles, Espinal takes a high chooper over the mound and on the run throws home to get the runner out. Then Marte makes a very difficult play to keep the game tied. I have no idea why Farmer was chosen there. Sam Moll has a quick 7th inning and I'd certainly considered running him back out for the 8th, but Bell puts in Emillo Pagan, who's not pitched in months. Somehow, someway we get the last 6 outs and win.
Now our good friends from St. Louis come in, we have Abbott, Greene and Spires going. Incredibly, we are somehow still in this wild card race.
 
Reds getting continually owned by Milwaukee is getting old. Reds are 12-29 the last 3 seasons against them. This is a similarly sized market team that just beats our brains in. You'd think ownership and management would want to do something about that. Nah. Just keep that profit margin up.
 
Tonight's lineup vs. the Cards and Sonny Gray.
I guess we're just not paying attention to Santigo Espinal's recent numbers.

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wolves82 said:
Reds getting continually owned by Milwaukee is getting old. Reds are 12-29 the last 3 seasons against them. This is a similarly sized market team that just beats our brains in. You'd think ownership and management would want to do something about that. Nah. Just keep that profit margin up.
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I don't know if it's as simple as that. Milwaukee just seems to be able to fill their gaps and play good baseball. Kind of like the Guardians, they have a farm system that brings up guys who are ready to play. I thought they may drop off a bit losing Counsell as the manager and this guy hasn't missed a beat, and they've had more injuries than most teams. That said we were a bloop and a blast from winning the series. The 1-0 loss Saturday was a killer.
 
Not pushing this week's games aside, but next Monday-Wednesday, the Reds go to Toronto. What do you wan to bet that Joey Votto is activated by the Blue Jays for that series??? For those of you who haven't followed, Votto was signed by the Blue Jays and hit a home run in his only at bat in spring training. He then stepped on a bat in the dugout and injured his ankle and was out of action for nearly 3 months. He then played briefly for the Dunedin Florida affiliate before being called up to triple A Buffalo. It's been less than good for him there. Currently in 9 games he's hitting .211, one home run, 3 RBI, 5 walks and 10 k's.
Selfishly I hope he does not get called up and retires at the end of the season. He just can't do it anymore and he really needs to retire. I'd like to see him only have played for the Reds at the major league level.
 
Take this with a grain of salt, but an advice article on the fantasy baseball site we use (CBS) listed 16 pitchers that are candidates for early shutdown or "innings management". Greene and Lodolo are on that list.

Greene is at 136 innings now, and his previous high was 132. Article says:
"Hunter Greene has taken a turn for the studly in a year when the Reds aren't looking like serious contenders. They'll probably slow him down as the season draws to a close, putting his innings in the 165-170 range."

Lodolo is at 116 innings and that matches his high. Article says:
"Nick Lodolo is at a point in his career where he should be able to throw 150 innings with ease, but after he lost so much of last season to injury, it would be a stretch to get him there. If the Reds slip further out of the playoff picture, they probably won't push it."
 
wolves82 said:
Take this with a grain of salt, but an advice article on the fantasy baseball site we use (CBS) listed 16 pitchers that are candidates for early shutdown or "innings management". Greene and Lodolo are on that list.

Greene is at 136 innings now, and his previous high was 132. Article says:
"Hunter Greene has taken a turn for the studly in a year when the Reds aren't looking like serious contenders. They'll probably slow him down as the season draws to a close, putting his innings in the 165-170 range."

Lodolo is at 116 innings and that matches his high. Article says:
"Nick Lodolo is at a point in his career where he should be able to throw 150 innings with ease, but after he lost so much of last season to injury, it would be a stretch to get him there. If the Reds slip further out of the playoff picture, they probably won't push it."
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I didn't read the article, nor any regarding him, I just figured they would shut him down. Kid has had a great season, there is no need to push him. He's 25 and three years removed from surgery, why push it.
 
Based on how he's performing, and how he feels, I'd say full steam ahead. Remember, the goal is not the 2024 season. Greene and Lodolo will need to LEAD this team for the next several years. I want them to pitch to as much of a full season as possible. Hopefully in the future, they will be stepping it up come playoff time as well. If you push it all the way out to the world series, your ace pitchers could likely get 6-7 starts.
The thing I do not want is to get to 2025, mid - late September and our studs to be faltering because they've never pitched 150+ innings.
We need to have them pitch as much as possible this season.
 
Stop me if you've heard this before....team has some momentum, a two game win streak, have the pitching matchup favorable for tonight....

Just a few comments on the lineup. I don't know about you, but if I'm Bell, after last night Steer is my leadoff hitter until he cools off ( India's leading off). On the days Espinal plays, I'd hit him further up in the lineup. It has to be extremely frustrating for him. He's only hitting .400 over the last month and yet he's still a spot player, and generally hits near the bottom.

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14Red said:
Stop me if you've heard this before....team has some momentum, a two game win streak, have the pitching matchup favorable for tonight....

Just a few comments on the lineup. I don't know about you, but if I'm Bell, after last night Steer is my leadoff hitter until he cools off ( India's leading off). On the days Espinal plays, I'd hit him further up in the lineup. It has to be extremely frustrating for him. He's only hitting .400 over the last month and yet he's still a spot player, and generally hits near the bottom.

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Agreed - Steer hits 2 HR, gets a walk and steal. Why tinker with that?
 
Going into the season, there were some question marks on Hunter Greene, and rightfully so. Through his brief young career, there had been some ups and downs, we'd see flashes here and there. Pitch counts were a problem as it seemed like every start he'd have an inning or two where he'd have 20-25 pitches and before you knew it, he'd be pushing 80+ pitches in the 4th or 5th inning. This season however, after some of the same for the first few months, he's really blossomed right before our eyes. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past 2 months and is now in the conversation for the NL Cy Young. The extension he signed a few years ago is now looking like it may be one of the best bargains in baseball. It's an escalating contract, this season he's making only $3.3 mill and by it goes up annually, topping out at $21 mill in 2029, but the club has an option on that.
To put this in some perspective, the top pitchers in baseball in terms of salary for 2024 is:
Max Scherzer $43.3 mill
Justin Verlander $43.3
Jacob deGrom $40
Garritt Cole $35.4
Patrick Corbin $35.4
Stephen Strasberg $35
Carlos Rondon $27.8
Jordan Montgomery $25
Aaron Nola $25
I excluded Ohtani because he's a two way player

So with Hunter's $3.3 mill per year, he's ranked 102nd in all of baseball in starting pitchers by salary.
 
So we've been here before right? The Reds sit 59-61 as of this morning, two games under .500, in 3rd place in the NL Central, 8.5 games back of Milwaukee and only a game back of the Cardinals. They also sit, a game back of both San Fran and St. Lois in the wild card, and 2.5 behind the Mets. Atlanta has the last wild card spot, and the Reds are 4.5 behind them. One of the issues with catching up in the wild card standings is going to be needing to get past multiple teams. If this team can get to .500, and then start climbing from there, only needing to get past one or two teams, they have a shot.
I'd say one plus for this team is to me, it seems like our pitching is holding up well, specifically the starters whereas it seems like other teams are fading. Hopefully that's a good sign for us.
 
14Red said:
Going into the season, there were some question marks on Hunter Greene, and rightfully so. Through his brief young career, there had been some ups and downs, we'd see flashes here and there. Pitch counts were a problem as it seemed like every start he'd have an inning or two where he'd have 20-25 pitches and before you knew it, he'd be pushing 80+ pitches in the 4th or 5th inning. This season however, after some of the same for the first few months, he's really blossomed right before our eyes. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past 2 months and is now in the conversation for the NL Cy Young. The extension he signed a few years ago is now looking like it may be one of the best bargains in baseball. It's an escalating contract, this season he's making only $3.3 mill and by it goes up annually, topping out at $21 mill in 2029, but the club has an option on that.
To put this in some perspective, the top pitchers in baseball in terms of salary for 2024 is:
Max Scherzer $43.3 mill
Justin Verlander $43.3
Jacob deGrom $40
Garritt Cole $35.4
Patrick Corbin $35.4
Stephen Strasberg $35
Carlos Rondon $27.8
Jordan Montgomery $25
Aaron Nola $25
I excluded Ohtani because he's a two way player

So with Hunter's $3.3 mill per year, he's ranked 102nd in all of baseball in starting pitchers by salary.
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Yes. That is a lot of typing, the short summary is: "The Reds wisely gave their young potential star a team-friendly contract extension years before they had to, so now they have an ace at well below the market value." We established that a page or two back in this thread.

We also established that the Reds need to be talking with Elly about a deal structured the same way, but probably higher $$.
 
14Red said:
So we've been here before right? The Reds sit 59-61 as of this morning, two games under .500, in 3rd place in the NL Central, 8.5 games back of Milwaukee and only a game back of the Cardinals. They also sit, a game back of both San Fran and St. Lois in the wild card, and 2.5 behind the Mets. Atlanta has the last wild card spot, and the Reds are 4.5 behind them. One of the issues with catching up in the wild card standings is going to be needing to get past multiple teams. If this team can get to .500, and then start climbing from there, only needing to get past one or two teams, they have a shot.
I'd say one plus for this team is to me, it seems like our pitching is holding up well, specifically the starters whereas it seems like other teams are fading. Hopefully that's a good sign for us.
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Yes, the best way back in the race is to beat the teams ahead of you in the standings. A sweep today would be terrific, and might get a few people back on the bandwagon. More importantly, the players would start to have the belief that they can do it.

On the downside, looks like Pagan is the opener today. I assume Spiers will come in long relief? Hopefully...
 
wolves82 said:
Yes. That is a lot of typing, the short summary is: "The Reds wisely gave their young potential star a team-friendly contract extension years before they had to, so now they have an ace at well below the market value." We established that a page or two back in this thread.

We also established that the Reds need to be talking with Elly about a deal structured the same way, but probably higher $$.
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All of these kinds of contracts have their risks. The Reds certainly look in great shape on this one. One caller into Lance's extra innings show last night actually criticized the contract, say the Reds have overpaid Greene to this point. And I don't think he was drunk.

Not every person on here is fully versed by the Reds and follow daily like you and I. So a little explanation isn't a bad thing.

There also seems to be some reluctance by many Reds fans to embrace Hunter Greene, and I don't know why? Sure, it's been a little slow, but he just turned 25 last week, he's under contract until 2029 at an incredibly team friendly deal.
 
Today's lineup. Birthday boy TJ hitting cleanup again. I honestly don't get it. How can they put Will Benson in the lineup?

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The oddities of baseball - Since July 24, India is 7 for 68, Since July 8, Espinal is 24-51.

Espinal is a better defender and is hitting better now, why would you not only start India, but lead him off?
 
14Red said:
The oddities of baseball - Since July 24, India is 7 for 68, Since July 8, Espinal is 24-51.

Espinal is a better defender and is hitting better now, why would you not only start India, but lead him off?
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3 hits and 4 rbi why. Just kidding. It’s baseball.
 
It is always nice to beat the Cards. First sweep of the Cards at home since 2017, I heard. Wow.

However, while the Reds have climbed the standings in the Central, we are still 4.5 games back in the Wild Card chase. First two wild card spots are the Dbacks and Padres. Both are 9-1 their last 10 games, and both are 16 games over .500. Reds are 8.5 back of them and cannot catch them without a miracle and/or a collapse by those teams.

So that means the Reds have to catch the Braves, and bypass the Mets and Giants. Attainable, but it will be tough running down the Braves. Just keep winning and see what happens.
 
14Red said:
There also seems to be some reluctance by many Reds fans to embrace Hunter Greene, and I don't know why? Sure, it's been a little slow, but he just turned 25 last week, he's under contract until 2029 at an incredibly team friendly deal.
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Anyone not embracing Greene is not worth talking to. He has always been a quality kid, does a lot for the community with his charitable foundation, and he is a terrific young pitcher to boot.

If someone does not like Hunter, that says more about them than Hunter.
 
GCPRO said:
3 hits and 4 rbi why. Just kidding. It’s baseball.
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I knew this was coming. Actually this is great opportunity for you guys who like to bet. ANY player that I criticize is your cue to bet the ranch on them that night to have a big game. More often then not they have a good night. Crazy stuff!!!
 
wolves82 said:
It is always nice to beat the Cards. First sweep of the Cards at home since 2017, I heard. Wow.

However, while the Reds have climbed the standings in the Central, we are still 4.5 games back in the Wild Card chase. First two wild card spots are the Dbacks and Padres. Both are 9-1 their last 10 games, and both are 16 games over .500. Reds are 8.5 back of them and cannot catch them without a miracle and/or a collapse by those teams.

So that means the Reds have to catch the Braves, and bypass the Mets and Giants. Attainable, but it will be tough running down the Braves. Just keep winning and see what happens.
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Jim Carrey Chance GIF
 
wolves82 said:
Anyone not embracing Greene is not worth talking to. He has always been a quality kid, does a lot for the community with his charitable foundation, and he is a terrific young pitcher to boot.

If someone does not like Hunter, that says more about them than Hunter.
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I agree, I've been impressed with Greene since his first interview when the Reds drafted him. Even at 18, he had such a mature sense about him.

As far as the resistance of the Reds fan base, we could certainly go back in time and list the countless numbers of Reds drafted pitchers who were supposed to be great, but turned out less than that. Known names like Gary Nolan, Wayne Simpson, Don Gullett, Ron Robinson, Pat Pacillo, Scott Scudder, Jack Armstrong, CJ Nitkowski, Ryan Wagner, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Brad Boxberger, Robert Stephenson, and Michael Lorenzen have all had limited to moderate success. You'd probably, Nolan, Gullett and Bailey as having the most success out of those guys.
But it doesn't stop there, here are the other top Reds picks who were pitchers who most of us never heard from again. Timothy Grant, Larry Paine, Steve Reed, Mark King, Mike Sullivan, Scott Jones, Bill Hawley, Matt McClendon, Ty Howington, Dustin Moseley, Jeremy Sowers, Chris Grueler, Ryan Lotzkar and Nick Howard. These are all first round draft picks of the Reds who were pitchers who never made an impact at all.

I think with pitchers, we are all very guarded on just how much these guys can accomplish because we've been conditioned over time that very few of these guys really make it big. Just in a few seasons, Greene has moved to the top handful on this list.
 
So making the rounds the last few days was some comments Barry Larkin made during one of the games this week. Of course it's taken a life of it's own. For some context, Larkin is the baseball analyst on the TV broadcasts of the Bally's Reds games, and he only does the home games. So Sadak was mentioning the other day the Reds were a couple games under the .500 mark. It's pretty typical for announcers to tell us these things, and this season it's been pretty steady because the team has been consistently between 1-5 games under .500. Well Larkin pipes in and says that's fine, the but organization shouldn't be satisfied with being a .500 team. He then goes back of course to the history of the Big Red Machine and the 1990 team, etc.
I don't think anyone was disputing this, of course the goal is to win and win big. It just seemed odd for Larkin to make a lingering point of this. And of course the crowd that's anti front office, anti-manager, anti- ownership group jumps on board, and even some of the sportstalk folks in the Cincy media market.
I like Larkin, like him as a player. First of all he's not pining to be the manager. Again he does broadcasting part time and only home games, so for him to sign up for 162 and road trips, I don't see it happening, if he wanted to be the manager, he would had been a long time ago. Secondly, and maybe more to his point, in Larkin's 18 year playing career, the teams he played on was over .500 9 times, and under .500 9 times. My estimate is in the years he played, his record was probably right around .500.
 
14Red said:
There also seems to be some reluctance by many Reds fans to embrace Hunter Greene, and I don't know why? Sure, it's been a little slow, but he just turned 25 last week, he's under contract until 2029 at an incredibly team friendly deal.
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1. Just 12 months ago, you were accusing Greene of faking a hip injury as some sort of surreptitious ruse to throw off the public from an undefined innings limit. You seemed to be among those reluctant to embrace him while wolves and I defended him.

2. He has one of those team-friendly deals that you routinely argue against.
 
AEW Champion said:
1. Just 12 months ago, you were accusing Greene of faking a hip injury as some sort of surreptitious ruse to throw off the public from an undefined innings limit. You seemed to be among those reluctant to embrace him while wolves and I defended him.

2. He has one of those team-friendly deals that you routinely argue against.
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Oh AEW, you take the cake.

There is no debating that MLB clubs, not just the Reds, hold these kids back. I've always felt like Greene's been the guy who WANTS to pitch more, but he goes with the teams charade or injuries or reasons not to pitch.

I've never complained once about Greene's contract situation. Do I think we should do that with any prospect that shows promise? No. Heck many of you wanted to sign Aristedes Aquino to a multi year deal in August of '19 when in 56 games he hit 19 homers. Thank goodness the club didn't act on that.
 
14Red said:
Oh AEW, you take the cake.

There is no debating that MLB clubs, not just the Reds, hold these kids back. I've always felt like Greene's been the guy who WANTS to pitch more, but he goes with the teams charade or injuries or reasons not to pitch.

I've never complained once about Greene's contract situation. Do I think we should do that with any prospect that shows promise? No. Heck many of you wanted to sign Aristedes Aquino to a multi year deal in August of '19 when in 56 games he hit 19 homers. Thank goodness the club didn't act on that.
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Literally no one posted to sign Aquino long term. Find the proof of that, don't make stuff up.

A few of us called for extending Elly; I'd also be OK with doing Steer. Lodolo was on the maybe list, and is still there.
 
wolves82 said:
Literally no one posted to sign Aquino long term. Find the proof of that, don't make stuff up.

A few of us called for extending Elly; I'd also be OK with doing Steer. Lodolo was on the maybe list, and is still there.
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I'm actually amazed that people care so much what an athlete makes, and what his contract status is. We mostly cheer or jeer these guys month by month, sometimes week by week. Case in point Joey Votto. I recall in 2012 many people demanded the Reds sign and pay Votto to show they are committed to winning! Wasn't many years later that many fans loathed that contract, calling him overpaid and not worth it. I could honestly care less what players make. In the late 80's Sports Illustrated came out with an edition each year listing player salaries. I think that was the beginning of the end. These are contracted workers who belong to a union, who cares what they get paid?

Anyway, sure IF you could get Elly to sign off, but honestly why would he? At this point Hunter may be kicking himself signing the deal he signed.
 
14Red said:
I'm actually amazed that people care so much what an athlete makes, and what his contract status is. We mostly cheer or jeer these guys month by month, sometimes week by week. Case in point Joey Votto. I recall in 2012 many people demanded the Reds sign and pay Votto to show they are committed to winning! Wasn't many years later that many fans loathed that contract, calling him overpaid and not worth it. I could honestly care less what players make. In the late 80's Sports Illustrated came out with an edition each year listing player salaries. I think that was the beginning of the end. These are contracted workers who belong to a union, who cares what they get paid?

Anyway, sure IF you could get Elly to sign off, but honestly why would he? At this point Hunter may be kicking himself signing the deal he signed.
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You really are not comprehending this? One last try...

I do not care how much the athletes make. That has nothing to do with it. I care about my favorite team retaining their best players. That is the entire point.

We all know that that the Reds cannot offer massive free agent contracts like LA, NY, Philly, etc. The dollars are just not there. So in order to retain their best players (Elly, for example), they need to get them longer contract extensions that extend beyond their free agent start date.

The only reason a player might sign a contract like that is if you give them a nice salary increase in the years before arbitration and free agency. So you pay a few million more than you need to the first couple years, and ramp up their salary as the contract goes longer, but you keep the salary well below the huge FA contract dollars.

As to your question "IF you could get Elly to sign off, but honestly why would he?", I have answered this many times for you. It is because:
a) He could make 2-3 million extra per year RIGHT NOW
b) He knows he could get hurt and the contract is a tremendous safety net
c) Everyone with half a brain knows that guaranteed money now is way better than "maybe" money 5 years from now

These are the same reasons that Hunter Greene signed.

Is this sinking in yet?
 
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