PantherProud
Well-known member
yea that's odd to be negotiating when you're not in a position of power, but maybe they feel like they need a new TV deal in place to recruit new schools and keep the ones they have...
USC, UCLA looking to leave Pac-12 for Big Ten in 2024, though deal not yet finalized
- Thread starter Yappi
- Start date
yea that's odd to be negotiating when you're not in a position of power, but maybe they feel like they need a new TV deal in place to recruit new schools and keep the ones they have...
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
If the Big 12 pulls off a raid, I wonder if we see those schools bend the knee to try to get into the Big Ten without Notre Dame by offering to take lesser revenue portions that tier over several years before becoming full revenue shares.
Keep going and take ND, UNC, UVA and GT.
Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland
UNC
Virginia
GT
USC
UCLA
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Notre Dame
Nebraska
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
Northwestern
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
I agree this is where they eventually end up when the goose is finished being carved up.
The only other schools I could see getting in are Duke, Colorado, Arizona, and Utah as schools 25-28, and that would be further down the road as emerging markets like Phoenix and Denver continue to grow and perhaps gain tangible value to the whole. The Big Ten will be either a 24 or a 28 school conference, but Notre Dame and North Carolina are required lynchpins to expand that far.
Auggie
Well-known member
A lot of chatter that all the other PAC 12 schools are using any available front/side/back door to get into the B1G. It appears the B1G will have their pick and I would not be surprised if FOX has a say or maybe Apple as they have jumped back into the negotiations for media rights.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
CBS reporting the Big 12 is negotiating to add up to six PAC schools, i.e. Oregon and Washington are trying to leverage the Big 10.
I get the "adding value to the pie" argument, but in terms of logistics the Big 10 has to have a few more west coast schools with Nebraska being the closest school geographically to USC and UCLA. In terms of the arms race aspect of college football, Oregon has real tangible value and a national brand due to Nike, and I would argue due to Nike has the biggest brand in the Bay Area market even if it isn't a great college football market. Stanford, Cal and Washington bring roughly $3.5 BILLION research dollars per year to the table.
This should be a dunk with all four starting at the same time as USC and UCLA, even if there's an unequal revenue sharing split for the duration of the next Big Ten media rights deal. An unequal split of that deal will still trump any other deal they could get whether it's PAC or Big 12 by miles.
I get the "adding value to the pie" argument, but in terms of logistics the Big 10 has to have a few more west coast schools with Nebraska being the closest school geographically to USC and UCLA. In terms of the arms race aspect of college football, Oregon has real tangible value and a national brand due to Nike, and I would argue due to Nike has the biggest brand in the Bay Area market even if it isn't a great college football market. Stanford, Cal and Washington bring roughly $3.5 BILLION research dollars per year to the table.
This should be a dunk with all four starting at the same time as USC and UCLA, even if there's an unequal revenue sharing split for the duration of the next Big Ten media rights deal. An unequal split of that deal will still trump any other deal they could get whether it's PAC or Big 12 by miles.
Auggie
Well-known member
Top 25 media markets and primary power 5 NCAA Conference they bring to the table post USC/UCLA move:
1 New York, NY B1G
2 Los Angeles, CA B1G
3 Chicago, IL B1G
4 Philadelphia, PA B1G
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX SEC (while TCU is located in the market it really is mostly about the Longhorns)
6 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose PAC12
7 Atlanta SEC
8 Houston, TX SEC
9 Washington (Hagerstown), DC-MD B1G
10 Boston (Manchester) ACC
11 Phoenix (Prescott) PAC12
12 Seattle-Tacoma PAC12
13 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) SEC
14 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN B1G
15 Detroit, MI B1G
16 Denver, CO PAC12
17 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL SEC (Some FSU influence but still mostly about Florida)
18 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL ACC (Probably could make a case for SEC too)
19 Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH B1G
20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA PAC12
21 Portland, OR PAC12
22 Charlotte, NC ACC
23 St. Louis, MO SEC
24 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville), NC ACC
25 Indianapolis, IN B1G
B1G: 9
SEC: 6
PAC12: 6
ACC: 4
Big 12: 0
Of note is the fact that the PAC12, even with losing USC/UCLA, has untapped potential in those 6 markets. Folks in the Bay area probably are not big on the sport but you would think that Phoenix and all of those grads from AZ State could translate to some kind of potential.
1 New York, NY B1G
2 Los Angeles, CA B1G
3 Chicago, IL B1G
4 Philadelphia, PA B1G
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX SEC (while TCU is located in the market it really is mostly about the Longhorns)
6 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose PAC12
7 Atlanta SEC
8 Houston, TX SEC
9 Washington (Hagerstown), DC-MD B1G
10 Boston (Manchester) ACC
11 Phoenix (Prescott) PAC12
12 Seattle-Tacoma PAC12
13 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) SEC
14 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN B1G
15 Detroit, MI B1G
16 Denver, CO PAC12
17 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL SEC (Some FSU influence but still mostly about Florida)
18 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL ACC (Probably could make a case for SEC too)
19 Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH B1G
20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA PAC12
21 Portland, OR PAC12
22 Charlotte, NC ACC
23 St. Louis, MO SEC
24 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville), NC ACC
25 Indianapolis, IN B1G
B1G: 9
SEC: 6
PAC12: 6
ACC: 4
Big 12: 0
Of note is the fact that the PAC12, even with losing USC/UCLA, has untapped potential in those 6 markets. Folks in the Bay area probably are not big on the sport but you would think that Phoenix and all of those grads from AZ State could translate to some kind of potential.
Marcus Aurelius
Member
I would guess Utah and AZ ST to Big XII, ORST and Wazzu Indy or MWC, and the rest B1G
PantherProud
Well-known member
This wouldn't shock me, but I still don't know if conferences will get quite that big, at least anytime soon.
I still think we are headed for 4 mega conferences, with an 8 team playoff. Top 2 teams from each conference. Or at least that would make the most sense IMO.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
From the guy that broke the USC/UCLA news.
Why is the news the Big 12 is looking to add Pac 12 schools? Why isn't he Pac 12 looking raid the Big 12?. To me it makes a lot more sense that Kansas, Oklahoma State, K-State, Baylor, TCU, and TTech move west than it would be to have Washington, Oregon, etc. Move to a conference with UC, WV, and UCF. Houston, and BYU can join the MWC. UC and UCF move to the ACC. Iowa State?????
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The Dock
Persona Non Grata
K-State, Baylor, TCU and TTech wouldn’t be candidates for the PAC-10. Kansas and OKState, however, would be.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
The Big 12 is a lot more stable than the PAC 12 because there's limited risk of any of their schools getting raided by the Big Ten and the SEC. If you leave for the PAC 12, there's real risk of being destabilized in the near to not too distant future by the Big Ten raiding the obvious targets like Stanford, Oregon and Washington.
Beggers can't be choosers, but the west coast schools would not accept a big chunk of the Big 12 on academic and/or cultural grounds. Cal, Stanford, Washington, etc. aren't going to welcome Baylor, TCU, BYU, etc. into their door. A second problem is I imagine that the west coast schools aren't exactly looking to get into any new legitimately binding GOR deal because their sights are on the Big Ten. They'll want an easy out when opportunity knocks.
Beggers can't be choosers, but the west coast schools would not accept a big chunk of the Big 12 on academic and/or cultural grounds. Cal, Stanford, Washington, etc. aren't going to welcome Baylor, TCU, BYU, etc. into their door. A second problem is I imagine that the west coast schools aren't exactly looking to get into any new legitimately binding GOR deal because their sights are on the Big Ten. They'll want an easy out when opportunity knocks.
On the other hand. If Washington, etc. would not want to add Baylor, etc. on academic/cultural/whatever grounds why would they consider moving to the Big 12 to join schools that are "beneath" them? Also, if the Pac 12 is raided, what happens to the Rose Bowl? The Big 10+ and the Pac 12 have vigorously protected the history and the tradition of the granddaddy of all bowls.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
I'll believe it when it happens...Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah I can find to be believable. The others, only if they can't get into the Big Ten. Stanford and Cal IMO would just go independent for the time being.
The future of the Rose Bowl is a good question. The Rose Bowl is already secondary to the playoff and for the last several years frequently gets a #2 team from either league or the occasional playoff rotation semifinal with opponents from neither league. Any remaining luster to it just went out the window with the Big 10 adding two PAC schools that have made a combined 46 appearances in the game. USC has appeared in the Rose Bowl more than any team.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Might have an alliance, part 2 in the works between the ACC/PAC that would include some type of championship/showcase in Vegas between league champs.
Marcus Aurelius
Member
Band-aid on a compound fracture that’s severed an artery
I heard this as well. I guess the announcement also made note of the fact that Fox was noncommittal to televise. Outside of Clemson vs Oregon, and even then, I can't see this being that big of a deal if it actually occurs.
Do Notre Dame fans want the Irish to join the Big Ten? Does Notre Dame even want to have their football program in a league?
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Probably not unless a day comes where increasing conference consolidation threatens their ability to schedule and their access to whatever form of a playoff exists after the current CFP contract.
Orin Swift
Well-known member
I don’t understand the ACCs fascination with the Alliance especially with the rumor some Pac 12 members might bolt to the Big12. I don’t think it helps Clemson getting into the playoff anymore than an ACC championship would and all it does is possibly leave the ACC without a playoff team if they lose.
Marcus Aurelius
Member
It can’t be long before Clemson jumps to the B1G as well.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
I think we're getting a lot of idealized fascination at the moment...the Big XII with thinking they can get Oregon and Washington, and the newer Alliance concept getting kicked around is probably more of a PAC (read: Oregon and Washington) hope to keep the band together and viable a little longer with something that's better than what the Big XII has to offer.
I doubt it would be beneficial to Clemson in terms of playoffs, but one guaranteed regular season game (Oregon/Utah/Washington v. Clemson/Florida State/Miami) plus a combined championship/showcase at the end of the season definitely improves the content inventory for both, moreso for the PAC. For the lesser ACC schools this is probably the best you can do to try to increase the conference's revenue without risking opening up the GOR that on paper is probably the only anchor keeping those better brands attached to you for the time being.
Orin Swift
Well-known member
I’d be surprised if Clemson jumps to the big 10. Offers nothing academically, if I remember right no PhD programs, offers peanuts on the research side of things, not an AAU member and is only recently good in football but provides little else in other sports, culturally fits the SEC better. But also never would have guessed any of the conference jumping since 2014 so ??
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
From the football side of things I'd love to see Clemson, Florida State, and Miami in the Big Ten...but there's no chance in hell of it happening.
From the research/development side of things, the worst Big Ten school, Nebraska, brings over $500 million between main campus and their medical center/campus (being counted separately is probably the biggest factor in them no longer being AAU). Everyone else in the Big Ten is around $700 million or better, with several pumping over $1 billion a year. Those institutions aren't going to welcome in a bunch of schools that only pump out $250-400 million a year in R&D just to improve their football product. Notre Dame is the only institution that could get away with a lower R&D yearly dollar value.
From the research/development side of things, the worst Big Ten school, Nebraska, brings over $500 million between main campus and their medical center/campus (being counted separately is probably the biggest factor in them no longer being AAU). Everyone else in the Big Ten is around $700 million or better, with several pumping over $1 billion a year. Those institutions aren't going to welcome in a bunch of schools that only pump out $250-400 million a year in R&D just to improve their football product. Notre Dame is the only institution that could get away with a lower R&D yearly dollar value.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
R&D dollars...UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech are in the billion dollar club. UVA is in the $650-700 million range.
I know who I'm putting my money on if/when there is a Big Ten raid on the ACC.
I know who I'm putting my money on if/when there is a Big Ten raid on the ACC.
Auggie
Well-known member
I talked to a recent grad that played a sport at ND and she indicated there is a generational divide when it comes to independence. Old school folks want them to remain independent for football more for nostalgia and elitist reasons while the recent grads are more receptive to this to be part of the current NCAA football landscape, in particular going to the B1G. Remember most of their alums are from the Midwest and the Northeast so the ACC isn't down the street to take in an Irish football game. Also those games against Navy & BC don't have the same draw that potential annual game against Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, etc...
MentorGrad2002
Well-known member
I for one hope the big 10 thinks like this. Would allow FSU Clemson etc to go to the sec with better sports overall. Football I wouldn't mind in the big 10 for FSU but sports like baseball would be awful.
FSU could very well be aau within 10 years though. And I have heard theyve been in contact with the big 10 recently. The academics would be mid tier compared to current big 10 schools. Only a few spots below OSU and Purdue right now for example
Marcus Aurelius
Member
On Clemson, while they do not match the conference academically, they’re a sports powerhouse lacking leverage. They either stick in a conference quickly falling behind, get pounded in the SEC, or take what they can get from the B1G. The conference could semi-conceivably ask Clemson show commitment to a path to becoming AAU to join.
MentorGrad2002
Well-known member
Correction. Clemson is a recent football powerhouse. They aren't a sports powerhouse overall.