USC, UCLA looking to leave Pac-12 for Big Ten in 2024, though deal not yet finalized

[nwwarrior09]

I for one hope the big 10 thinks like this. Would allow FSU Clemson etc to go to the sec with better sports overall. Football I wouldn't mind in the big 10 for FSU but sports like baseball would be awful.

FSU could very well be aau within 10 years though. And I have heard theyve been in contact with the big 10 recently. The academics would be mid tier compared to current big 10 schools. Only a few spots below OSU and Purdue right now for example

I would almost guarantee this is how the Big 10 thinks because everything has been monetary with them. The R&D dollars dwarf the athletic media rights payouts. A school like Washington currently generates over 14x as much R&D value per year as the $100 million threshold these schools are hoping to top in yearly media rights payouts on their next contract.

There's an enormous R&D value gap between Florida State, Miami and Clemson and the bottom half of the Big Ten. Ohio State generates as much R&D value as all three of those schools combined. As long as the media money is right, the academic side would much rather have Stanford, Washington, UNC, Georgia Tech, etc.

 

[MentorGrad2002]

I would almost guarantee this is how the Big 10 thinks because everything has been monetary with them. The R&D dollars dwarf the athletic media rights payouts. A school like Washington currently generates over 14x as much R&D value per year as the $100 million threshold these schools are hoping to top in yearly media rights payouts on their next contract.

There's an enormous R&D value gap between Florida State, Miami and Clemson and the bottom half of the Big Ten. Ohio State generates as much R&D value as all three of those schools combined. As long as the media money is right, the academic side would much rather have Stanford, Washington, UNC, Georgia Tech, etc.

Good for them then. Doesn't help you or other posters on here that colleges are pumping more money into research and such. Until they televise school, I really don't care about a conference as a whole and how they bring in money for a college.

If Fsu , Clemson , Miami etc types go to the sec and the big 10 picks up north Carolina , Virginia and Georgia tech types , I'm all for it

 

[Omar]

Do Notre Dame fans want the Irish to join the Big Ten? Does Notre Dame even want to have their football program in a league?

I’d prefer they stay independent as long as possible, but I don’t think they have much choice at this point

 

[nwwarrior09]

Good for them then. Doesn't help you or other posters on here that colleges are pumping more money into research and such. Until they televise school, I really don't care about a conference as a whole and how they bring in money for a college.

If Fsu , Clemson , Miami etc types go to the sec and the big 10 picks up north Carolina , Virginia and Georgia tech types , I'm all for it

It doesn't help the fans, but it meets what the actual schools want. The "academic alliance" part is a huge deal to the schools between the R&D and graduate/PHD level programs. Between this expansion and the last one, they added California and New Jersey which respectively export the most and the 3rd most students to colleges in other states...which also checks off a major item for a league that has a stagnant to declining student age population in it's core footprint.

Both the Big Ten and the SEC are going to end up with what they want at the end. The only question is who all gets in and who gets left out.

 

[Auggie]

Source: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson in Talks to Join SEC

A source told SwimSwam that Virginia, UNC, FSU, and Clemson are negotiating to join the SEC as ESPN attempts to void their 20-year TV deal with the ACC.

swimswam.com

This is basically THE source for NCAA swimming & diving news so it isn't some guy behind a smart phone with an idea. I get all but UVA unless the SEC is trying to get a little academic legitimacy but then again that is not what the SEC is about, my guess is they want to try and muscle into the Northern Va/DC market.

 

[MentorGrad2002]

Source: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson in Talks to Join SEC

A source told SwimSwam that Virginia, UNC, FSU, and Clemson are negotiating to join the SEC as ESPN attempts to void their 20-year TV deal with the ACC.

swimswam.com

This is basically THE source for NCAA swimming & diving news so it isn't some guy behind a smart phone with an idea. I get all but UVA unless the SEC is trying to get a little academic legitimacy but then again that is not what the SEC is about, my guess is they want to try and muscle into the Northern Va/DC market.

I've seen that and glad to see you say he's a good source for that sport. I still don't quite buy that he's the one to bring this to light and it's legit. The school targets make sense though

I've heard rumors for awhile that the big 10 has had convos with FSU and Miami btw too

 

[Orin Swift]

Good for them then. Doesn't help you or other posters on here that colleges are pumping more money into research and such. Until they televise school, I really don't care about a conference as a whole and how they bring in money for a college.

No one claimed otherwise. We’ve just pointed out what is driving the Big 10’s expansion.

 

[Yappi]

The Purdues, Indianas, Minny, get a windfall while providing very little to the BIG in football. While some schools like Okie St, Iowa St, and others who have actual football teams are left in the dust.

College football needs the "have-nots" to make the "haves" look even better.

It is like the Yankees in MLB. They are a perennial power because they can spend so much money. They can continue spending so much money because they are a perennial power.

 

[Auggie]

I've seen that and glad to see you say he's a good source for that sport. I still don't quite buy that he's the one to bring this to light and it's legit. The school targets make sense though

I've heard rumors for awhile that the big 10 has had convos with FSU and Miami btw too

Kind of surprised that with the insular nature of many Olympic Sports more leaks have not come from these types of sources.

 

[MentorGrad2002]

Kind of surprised that with the insular nature of many Olympic Sports more leaks have not come from these types of sources.

You are a good source for Ohio and I've seen a few Alabama people say this guy is a great swimming source.

That makes me think he isn't just making stuff up. I just have doubts on a swim guy getting the scoop on this.

Again the schools make a lot of sense and I hope it's true.

I won't even believe it til the conference makes a statement. ESPN ran stories with graphics on FSU and Clemson going to the sec along the time Missouri and a&m joined.

 

[Auggie]

You are a good source for Ohio and I've seen a few Alabama people say this guy is a great swimming source.

That makes me think he isn't just making stuff up. I just have doubts on a swim guy getting the scoop on this.

Again the schools make a lot of sense and I hope it's true.

I won't even believe it til the conference makes a statement. ESPN ran stories with graphics on FSU and Clemson going to the sec along the time Missouri and a&m joined.

If you read the article it mentions that UVA is the past two women's national champs and while far from a revenue sport a national champ of any sort gets the attention of the admin so I am sure they are looped into the preliminary discussions. All it takes is for someone on staff to catch wind of a big meeting with the President and then he/she is talking to this guy from SwimSwam about a recruit and mentions it and this guy gets confirmation from his contact at UNC about a big meeting w/ the admin that nobody is talking about. This is how a story like this grows legs to the point where a reputable source with nothing to gain and a lot to lose puts his name on it.

 

[MentorGrad2002]

If you read the article it mentions that UVA is the past two women's national champs and while far from a revenue sport a national champ of any sort gets the attention of the admin so I am sure they are looped into the preliminary discussions. All it takes is for someone on staff to catch wind of a big meeting with the President and then he/she is talking to this guy from SwimSwam about a recruit and mentions it and this guy gets confirmation from his contact at UNC about a big meeting w/ the admin that nobody is talking about. This is how a story like this grows legs to the point where a reputable source with nothing to gain and a lot to lose puts his name on it.

Again I hope you're right. Barrett sallee and Dennis dodd from cbs sports are calling it ridiculous but they get stuff wrong too.

Also I'll add that I post on warchant and one guy who is trusted and has been plugged in on scoops over the years has said he heard similar things on talks with those schools and the sec

 

[MentorGrad2002]

SOURCES: Florida State exploring leaving ACC for new conference

There are two options on the table for the Seminoles.

www.si.com

 

[nwwarrior09]

Perhaps a bad assumption, but I would have assumed that if the SEC wanted into Virginia they'd prefer VA Tech over UVA.

 

[MentorGrad2002]

Perhaps a bad assumption, but I would have assumed that if the SEC wanted into Virginia they'd prefer VA Tech over UVA.

If these 4 were added by the sec, the big 10 would lose a couple of aau options. If it went up to 24 teams each , you'd be looking at needing 4 of Kansas , Arizona , cal, Colorado, Utah or Pitt along with your ND exception. And that's if Stanford , Oregon and Washington are in.

I'd bet on Duke and Georgia tech and Miami being in the sec. Oklahoma state , Virginia tech, NC state, Louisville and a Texas school possible too.

I will say this on Miami. I've heard FSU and Miami have both talked to both the sec and big 10. And the Florida Gators don't exactly play up out of conference over the years and have often avoided Miami. I've heard Florida wouldn't want Miami. Maybe the big 10 makes a Miami exception if that happens to get into Florida

 

[Bless Em All]

Aren't UNC and Duke a combo? FSU and Miami?

 

[MentorGrad2002]

Aren't UNC and Duke a combo? FSU and Miami?

I think if UNC went to the sec, it's possible that NC state would follow. Also Virginia in this scenario goes with UNC and it's the oldest rivalry in the south

If Fsu was going to the sec, I'm sure theyd want Clemson and Miami to go with them. Those are their rivals along with Florida. Georgia would definitely become a rivalry quick if Fsu turned it around

As I said , Florida has avoided Miami a lot over the years. Especially when Miami is good. They might not want both in the sec.

I don't think FSU would turn down the sec now no matter who goes with them. Clemson and FSU have often worked together in the acc to try to fight the UNC Duke and uva demons

 

[nwwarrior09]

Aren't UNC and Duke a combo? FSU and Miami?

This would make sense conventionally...but if trying to maximize media rights revenue, not necessarily. There's a lot of redundancy in market territory, especially Florida considering the SEC already has UF. Unless a brand is really valuable, I'd imagine the better play is adding a school that adds a different state to the conference footprint.

Does it really make sense for the SEC to have 3 schools in the state of Florida?

 

[MentorGrad2002]

This would make sense conventionally...but if trying to maximize media rights revenue, not necessarily. There's a lot of redundancy in market territory, especially Florida considering the SEC already has UF. Unless a brand is really valuable, I'd imagine the better play is adding a school that adds a different state to the conference footprint.

Does it really make sense for the SEC to have 3 schools in the state of Florida?

Think we are past the market stage now. It's on brands. The big 10 just added two schools from the same city albeit a big city. Florida State is a brand. If the sec adds 4 schools I'd bet on them being one of them. Clemson too

 

[nwwarrior09]

Think we are past the market stage now. It's on brands. The big 10 just added two schools from the same city albeit a big city. Florida State is a brand. If the sec adds 4 schools I'd bet on them being one of them. Clemson too

I don't know how much brand value Miami has at this point, although the brand potential in theory is stronger than other potential choices. It's been 20 years since they've been elite, and they've had a lot mediocre teams since then. Smaller private school with a small alumni base in a destination/event city (i.e. no one cares unless the team is really good) in a state where you already have a big brand with Florida and assumedly a second in Florida State if you expand.

Without doubt IMO the SEC's top three choices would be Clemson, Florida State, and North Carolina.

 

[WJ-OSU-STEELERS]

I like the idea of the B10 going to 24 teams. B10 adds:
* Norte Dame, Washington, Oregon, Stanford
* Miami, Florida St, North Carolina, Duke

Football wise it gets the conference into California & Florida for recruiting purposes.

For education/research purposes all but Miami & FSU are good/top notch.

For travel purposes - love LA, SF, Seattle & South Florida. This is great for tv ratings and NIL endorsement $$$.

Back to football you could go to 4 six team divisions with the 4 division champs making a 4 team B10 championship:
* Div 1 - Miami, Florida St, Penn St, Duke, North Carolina & Maryland
* Div 2 - Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Rutgers, Indiana & Purdue
* Div 3 - Norte Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois & Minnesota
* Div 4 - USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington & Nebraska

You play everyone in your division and 2 games vs teams from the other 3 divisions. Total is 11 conference games plus 2 non-conference games for a 13 game regular season. The problem is your conference champion would have 13 regular season games, 2 B10 championship games and possibly 3 national title games (assuming a 8 team National Championship playoff) for a total of 18 games.

 

[PantherProud]

I like the idea of the B10 going to 24 teams. B10 adds:
* Norte Dame, Washington, Oregon, Stanford
* Miami, Florida St, North Carolina, Duke

Football wise it gets the conference into California & Florida for recruiting purposes.

For education/research purposes all but Miami & FSU are good/top notch.

For travel purposes - love LA, SF, Seattle & South Florida. This is great for tv ratings and NIL endorsement $$$.

Back to football you could go to 4 six team divisions with the 4 division champs making a 4 team B10 championship:
* Div 1 - Miami, Florida St, Penn St, Duke, North Carolina & Maryland
* Div 2 - Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Rutgers, Indiana & Purdue
* Div 3 - Norte Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois & Minnesota
* Div 4 - USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington & Nebraska

You play everyone in your division and 2 games vs teams from the other 3 divisions. Total is 11 conference games plus 2 non-conference games for a 13 game regular season. The problem is your conference champion would have 13 regular season games, 2 B10 championship games and possibly 3 national title games (assuming a 8 team National Championship playoff) for a total of 18 games.

Would non conference games go by the wayside under mega conferences?

 

[Auggie]

Would non conference games go by the wayside under mega conferences?

Actually many are saying they will get better as there will be Divisions to help sort out the bids and a big W or close L against high level OOC will help in seeding. Now what will go by the wayside are the cupcake games and it will really hurt the FCS teams and probably the lower levels of the FBS, in some instances it could be a killer for their budgets.

 

[Bless Em All]

I think the B1G is trying to invade the SE. Maybe they go after tht ACC? Read about this and it was interesting to think of the B1G having a presence in SEC country. That would be a huge win. You can bet the SEC will look West at some point.
Recruiting is taking a backseat to TV $$$$

 

[Orin Swift]

It’ll be harder for the Big 10 to raid the ACC then it will the SEC, given ESPN has tv rights for the ACC and SEC.

 

[Auggie]

It’ll be harder for the Big 10 to raid the ACC then it will the SEC, given ESPN has tv rights for the ACC and SEC.

On the business side ESPN is desperate to keep the ACC together, that media rights deal is so one-sided in ESPN's favor that it is needed to help offset the $s they will lose when the B1G separates their inventory from ESPN. ESPN is trying to keep the SEC away from the ACC. ESPN is also trying to fold the remaining PAC12 schools into the ACC rights deal and calling it an official alliance, it offers the PAC12 "protection" from future raiding; kind of sounds like a mafia type arrangement to me. If any raiding happens it will be the B1G/FOX raiding the better brands in the ACC or PAC12 but it could be costly unless the lawyers can work something out.

Another business move to come will be playoff expansion talks. The SEC wants to keep ND away from the B1G and they basically want to give them an annual pathway to the playoffs to keep ND happy and independent. The problem is the other power 5 conferences now want auto bids for conference champs as that may keep their current structures together yet that limits the opportunity for ND and somewhat the SEC as they expect multiple bids in any future expansion. My guess is Greg Sankey blows by the 12 team model right away to a 16 team model.

 

[Marcus Aurelius]

I like the idea of the B10 going to 24 teams. B10 adds:
* Norte Dame, Washington, Oregon, Stanford
* Miami, Florida St, North Carolina, Duke

Football wise it gets the conference into California & Florida for recruiting purposes.

For education/research purposes all but Miami & FSU are good/top notch.

For travel purposes - love LA, SF, Seattle & South Florida. This is great for tv ratings and NIL endorsement $$$.

Back to football you could go to 4 six team divisions with the 4 division champs making a 4 team B10 championship:
* Div 1 - Miami, Florida St, Penn St, Duke, North Carolina & Maryland
* Div 2 - Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Rutgers, Indiana & Purdue
* Div 3 - Norte Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois & Minnesota
* Div 4 - USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington & Nebraska

You play everyone in your division and 2 games vs teams from the other 3 divisions. Total is 11 conference games plus 2 non-conference games for a 13 game regular season. The problem is your conference champion would have 13 regular season games, 2 B10 championship games and possibly 3 national title games (assuming a 8 team National Championship playoff) for a total of 18 games.

Nebraska in such a division is looney tunes. The B1G would add another western school for balance.

 

[nwwarrior09]

Nebraska in such a division is looney tunes. The B1G would add another western school for balance.

Yeah, I think that's a non-starter being two time zones away.

Assuming there are 20-24 schools eventually, a western pod/division has to be filled entirely with pacific and mountain time zone schools. If there's 24 schools they have to let in one of Cal, Arizona/Arizona State, Utah and Colorado.

 

[nwwarrior09]

ESPN has a lot of expensive inventory between the SEC, NFL, NBA, etc., and simultaneously while making some huge deals over the last decade, they also lost 25% of their subscribers due to cord cutting which has resulted in multiple rounds of layoffs of employees including on-air talent.

At some point by the end of the decade IMO their business model is going to have to dramatically change with the good stuff becoming available on streaming packages. I don't think it makes any sense at all for them to bust open a very favorable ACC deal, and a lot of sense for them to fold PAC content into the ACC Network via an "alliance" to increase their inventory.

 

[WJ-OSU-STEELERS]

Marcus - Then what do you do with Nebraska? From a football standpoint, I think it gives them a recruiting lifeline to Cali recruits. Since Nebraska left the B12 they have been no better than Purdue. Why? Because the state of Nebraska produces maybe 4 or 5 guys a year that can play B19 level football. Most of their recruits use to come from Texas but they have lost their presence there.

* Lincoln, Nebraska to LA is 1,500 miles
* Lincoln, Nebraska to Austin, Texas is 821 miles

It’s far and yea, a time zone or two away but based on the teams I proposed Nebraska draws the short straw. Hey, if you were Nebraska where would you rather play an away game: @Maryland or @Rutgers or go to LA?