USC, UCLA looking to leave Pac-12 for Big Ten in 2024, though deal not yet finalized

MentorGrad2002 said:
I'm on anyone's side who thinks it could speed up. Would be torture to have to wait 15 years and could be damaged with there revenue gap

But do you really think the wake Forrest and bc types who could get left out would be dumb enough to renegotiate exit terms when a team like wvu or Cincy is added via expansion?

Theyd be starting their own demise. Hopefully the people in charge of those types are dumber than I think
Click to expand...
Probably depends on what the league's rules state in regards to expansion, i.e. does it have to be a unanimous vote or just a majority to admit a new member.

Secondly, and the red herring in the room if you're the ACC, Notre Dame. Not a full member, but for media rights purposes an important part of the finances of the whole. I don't see them going anywhere unless they have to, but I bet they could "break the wheel" so to speak if they wanted because they aren't a full ACC football member...and that might be enough to force everyone else back to the table with their media partners.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
Probably depends on what the league's rules state in regards to expansion, i.e. does it have to be a unanimous vote or just a majority to admit a new member.

Secondly, and the red herring in the room if you're the ACC, Notre Dame. Not a full member, but for media rights purposes an important part of the finances of the whole. I don't see them going anywhere unless they have to, but I bet they could "break the wheel" so to speak if they wanted because they aren't a full ACC football member...and that might be enough to force everyone else back to the table with their media partners.
Click to expand...
Notre Dame can leave earlier if they want. They gotta pay the GOR not including football. So it's less and they have tons of money

I just don't know if they'll lose independence yet as they don't need to until chaos occurs. Not like Notre Dame would get left behind
 
Hazardous Whippet said:
Someone else brought up the point that AAU status and Football are big driving points in these mergers but the bigger component that may be driving this financially is Research money. USC and UCLA are 2 of the biggest institutions of research money in the country at $1.6 and $1.4 billion dollars.

In comparison Ohio State is at $968 Million, Penn State $1.57 billion, Michigan $1.67 billion, and Wisconsin $1.36 billion.

If we're looking at those numbers some of the other schools who could be in play in my opinion could be Stanford $1.2 billion and Washington $1.23 billion

Rankings by total R&D expenditures
Click to expand...
This is a very good point that I would not overlook.

UNC and Duke aren't far behind Washington and Stanford, and from the academic/research angle would make a lot of Big Ten academics and administrators very happy.
 
The Dock said:
The thing that I can’t wrap my head around is to what extent the schools in Pullman, Corvallis and Tempe could handicap the departure of U-Dub, Oregon and ‘Zona. Are these schools with similar board of regents politics that supposedly have Lawrence and KSU joined at the hip?
Click to expand...
Might be getting to the point where the money is too big to anchor down the other state school.

At least for the time being on paper, UCLA just left Berkeley high and dry. I'd expect the same elsewhere.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
This is a very good point that I would not overlook.

UNC and Duke aren't far behind Washington and Stanford, and from the academic/research angle would make a lot of Big Ten academics and administrators very happy.
Click to expand...
I could easily see those 2 joining as well which rounds out to the 20 teams that many believe it will ultimately go to.
 
MentorGrad2002 said:
Going to be bigger than 20 if the sec and the big 10 house all the playoff eligible teams. 24 would probably be the low mark and 28-30 more probable
Click to expand...
Will still need to factor in the AAU and Research dollar equations. The B1G will not just accept a program because of playoff eligibility alone.
 
Big Ten especially, I don't think I'd put a number on where they're expanding towards. It all depends on the brands/brand potential, markets, and as Whippet noted, who brings big research dollars/academic prestige. I think it's very inexact.

Just about the only thing I feel for sure about is they would expand for Notre Dame and North Carolina. Others that I think would jump through hoops to get in like Oregon, Washington, Stanford, UVA, Duke/Georgia Tech, etc. may be in a holding pattern until a bigger domino falls.
 
If Notre Dame actually wanted in I think there'd be enough value added between them and the LA schools that they'd go straight to 20 with Oregon, Washington and Stanford.

Just going to 18 with 2/3rds of the other three might be at best revenue neutral. I think everything else would be a holding pattern between the ACC GOR and seeing how brand/market potential for schools like Colorado, Arizona and Utah progresses over the rest of the decade.
 
Hazardous Whippet said:
Will still need to factor in the AAU and Research dollar equations. The B1G will not just accept a program because of playoff eligibility alone.
Click to expand...
Got bored this afternoon and looked...there are 13 remaining AAU schools in the PAC 12, Big 12, and ACC.

Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, UNC, UVA, Duke, Georgia Tech, and Pitt. Those schools plus Notre Dame are the "menu" so to speak for any further Big Ten expansion unless the AAU and research dollar aspects are reduced in importance.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
Got bored this afternoon and looked...there are 13 remaining AAU schools in the PAC 12, Big 12, and ACC.

Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, UNC, UVA, Duke, Georgia Tech, and Pitt. Those schools plus Notre Dame are the "menu" so to speak for any further Big Ten expansion unless the AAU and research dollar aspects are reduced in importance.
Click to expand...

I am hearing that Washington and Oregon have already asked to jump ship but are on hold until Notre Dame makes their decision (at one time they were considering jumping to the Big 10 and then backed out but I think this time it may be to tempting this time).

We'll have to see where this unfolds but I think this is far from over.
 
Hazardous Whippet said:
I am hearing that Washington and Oregon have already asked to jump ship but are on hold until Notre Dame makes their decision (at one time they were considering jumping to the Big 10 and then backed out but I think this time it may be to tempting this time).

We'll have to see where this unfolds but I think this is far from over.
Click to expand...
May be waiting for a long time as who ever knows with Notre Dame. I tend to think they'll cling to the independent model for as long as possible in football, even if financially their media rights would explode in value going to the Big Ten. If they did join, I think the league would go straight to 20 with those two and another PAC school.

Individually, Notre Dame's deal with NBC ($15 million per year) runs out in 2025. They in theory are on the clock to figure out what they'll be doing when that time comes. At least in terms of secondary rights after Fox, it seems there is legitimate interest from NBC and CBS to get in on the Big Ten inventory and probably moreso if Notre Dame were in the fold. The dream scenario for the league would be having at least one brand name team every week in the "Big Noon" slot on Fox, on CBS at 3:30 in the current "SEC game of the week" window, and a 7:30/8 primetime game on NBC, with a bunch of filler on the Big Ten Network and streaming on Amazon and/or Apple.
 
Info about schools size:

UCLA: It has a total undergraduate enrollment of 31,636 (fall 2020), its setting is urban, and the campus size is 419 acres. It utilizes a quarter-based academic calendar. University of California—Los Angeles' ranking in the 2022 edition of Best Colleges is National Universities, #20.


USC: Undergraduates: 21,000 ; Graduate and professional 28,500 ; Total 49,500

 
Last edited:
You look at ND two ways…one would be that they might come in the B1G and try to strong-arm everyone, and two, they might come in and heighten the overall value with their alum and TV viewership. I can’t see Clemson, UNC, Miami, Florida State just sitting by and allowing the SEC and B1G expand without answering with the addition of ND and possibly another big time program. I don’t think ND is completely out of the equation for the B1G.
 
nwwarrior09 said:
May be waiting for a long time as who ever knows with Notre Dame. I tend to think they'll cling to the independent model for as long as possible in football, even if financially their media rights would explode in value going to the Big Ten. If they did join, I think the league would go straight to 20 with those two and another PAC school.

Individually, Notre Dame's deal with NBC ($15 million per year) runs out in 2025. They in theory are on the clock to figure out what they'll be doing when that time comes. At least in terms of secondary rights after Fox, it seems there is legitimate interest from NBC and CBS to get in on the Big Ten inventory and probably moreso if Notre Dame were in the fold. The dream scenario for the league would be having at least one brand name team every week in the "Big Noon" slot on Fox, on CBS at 3:30 in the current "SEC game of the week" window, and a 7:30/8 primetime game on NBC, with a bunch of filler on the Big Ten Network and streaming on Amazon and/or Apple.
Click to expand...

I’d be in favor of a Big Ten move to NBC if it gets Gus Johnson off my airwaves.
 
MentorGrad2002 said:
Notre Dame won't feel the need to move until absolute chaos happens eventually
Click to expand...
Money talks. Notre Dame may feel the need to move.
"Notre Dame makes $15 million annually from its NBC contract to televise its home games, and an estimated $10-11 million annually from the ACC (the Irish received a full $35 million share in the 2020 COVID season), depending on the number of games it plays. That’s $55 million reasons annually Notre Dame will soon have a conference membership."
 
I stayed away from this thread for a few days because the older I get, the more I become what I said I wouldn't be - impulsive, get off my lawn guy.

When I first heard it, it was half "Wow, thats intriguing" and half "I hate this. Makes no geographic or historical sense. They are ruining my favorite sport."

I gotta let go of what major CFB used to be, because it isn't that anymore, and isn't going to be that again. This makes great sense in terms of TV market and the SEC's move to bring in Okla and Texas.

So, since this is the way it is going to be, I'm trying to be hopeful that I am going to like the end product, once the reorganization of the sport settles. What I hope it looks like is two, possibly three, conferences of the "majors" that comes under the banner of one strong and effective governing body with a commissioner whose job is to protect the best interest of the sport, a re-regionalization, and a 16 team playoff.

But it could go in a lot of bad directions. One gets the feeling that the the SEC wants to run CFB not just be a part in the whole. The B1G is saying, I think, "You need to cooperate with us" and force them to join with the rest of the country. But the coercion, both ways, is frought with peril and a lot of potential bad directions. Regardless, I don't want Ohio St to have to call Tuscaloosa for permission to do something. FWIW
 
One more point - and maybe I'm somewhat out on a limb here. I need to make a political point in the most apolitical way I can, given the thread.

California, along with a few other states, but especially Cali, form the farthest from political center over on that side of the political spectrum. Given that UCLA is a state school, it comes under all of the mandates and directives that state delivers. That has included boycotts on travel to certain states and a prohibition of playing games during COVID-19. One can only imagine the kinds of trouble the government of CA could create for sports at state schools by creating mandates derived from, say, DEI principles, and the kinds of conflicts that could arise with what the legislature in Columbus, Ohio cranks out.

If I'm overthinking this or being too paranoid, just say so. I have no problem with getting into bed with UCLA as an institution, but I have a fear of waking up naked next to Gavin Newsome. :)
 
IVCguy said:
I stayed away from this thread for a few days because the older I get, the more I become what I said I wouldn't be - impulsive, get off my lawn guy.

When I first heard it, it was half "Wow, thats intriguing" and half "I hate this. Makes no geographic or historical sense. They are ruining my favorite sport."

I gotta let go of what major CFB used to be, because it isn't that anymore, and isn't going to be that again. This makes great sense in terms of TV market and the SEC's move to bring in Okla and Texas.

So, since this is the way it is going to be, I'm trying to be hopeful that I am going to like the end product, once the reorganization of the sport settles. What I hope it looks like is two, possibly three, conferences of the "majors" that comes under the banner of one strong and effective governing body with a commissioner whose job is to protect the best interest of the sport, a re-regionalization, and a 16 team playoff.

But it could go in a lot of bad directions. One gets the feeling that the the SEC wants to run CFB not just be a part in the whole. The B1G is saying, I think, "You need to cooperate with us" and force them to join with the rest of the country. But the coercion, both ways, is frought with peril and a lot of potential bad directions. Regardless, I don't want Ohio St to have to call Tuscaloosa for permission to do something. FWIW
Click to expand...
If i had my druthers, I would rather OSU be in with the SEC rednecks than the ultralaiberal elistist from the East and West coast. Politically the Midwest affiliates more with the SEC than Cali., Nj, or MD.
 
The actual academic institutions in the Big Ten including Ohio State fit in a lot more with the schools on the coasts than with the schools in the south, whether talking academics or research/research grants which seems to be a prerequisite for entry into the Big Ten. There's a reason the Big Ten probably won't ever expand further south than North Carolina unless Georgia Tech somehow wiggles in down the road.

As a university, the only SEC schools that the Big Ten would fit with are Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and A&M...ACC it's all schools further up the coast except for UVA, UNC, Duke and Georgia Tech.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
If i had my druthers, I would rather OSU be in with the SEC rednecks than the ultralaiberal elistist from the East and West coast. Politically the Midwest affiliates more with the SEC than Cali., Nj, or MD.
Click to expand...
those SEC rednecks would not welcome OSU -- or any Big 10 brand worth a bucket of warm piss -- with open arms. Politics be damned, the south sees places like the Great Lakes region as cultural pariahs.

In any case, you're just mistaken on the topic of politics/culture with regards to OSU. Ohio State's brand power is interlinked with it being a large, high-academic public research university that attracts students from all over with a similarly massive alumni population that spans coast-to-coast. NJ, VA, NY, MD? Ohio State is a top-2 college sports brand in those states. In California they're a top-5 brand without question. That alone is enough to make them and their fans unwelcome in the SEC.
 
Last edited:
The only school that I could see there being a stones throw in hell of flipping sides in the Big Ten/SEC dynamic would be Missouri.
 
The Dock said:
those SEC rednecks would not welcome OSU -- or any Big 10 brand worth a bucket of warm piss -- with open arms. Politics be damned, the south sees places like the Great Lakes region as cultural pariahs.
Click to expand...
A place like Ann Arbor or Madison wouldn't be viewed much differently by a stereotypical southerner than how they view California.
 
IVCguy said:
So, since this is the way it is going to be, I'm trying to be hopeful that I am going to like the end product, once the reorganization of the sport settles. What I hope it looks like is two, possibly three, conferences of the "majors" that comes under the banner of one strong and effective governing body with a commissioner whose job is to protect the best interest of the sport, a re-regionalization, and a 16 team playoff.
Click to expand...
At some point I think it's inevitable that there are only two "major" conferences and it vaguely looks like a major sports league but with a lot more teams. The Big Ten and SEC already raided the most valuable brands from the Big XII and the PAC and won't value any combination of the remaining schools in those leagues as being equal, because they can't possibly come close to matching their viewership.

Only the ACC could be a viable 3rd major conference due to on paper being safe for a time from being raided due to their crappy TV deal, but longer-term I think they are only viable if they can suck Notre Dame in full time. If they can't, the time will eventually come when they too are carved up and the Big Ten raids UNC, UVA, etc. and the SEC raids Clemson, Florida State, Miami, etc. UNC is probably the only serious point of contention between the two sides that both would badly want.
 
Last edited:
nwwarrior09 said:
A place like Ann Arbor or Madison wouldn't be viewed much differently by a stereotypical southerner than how they view California.
Click to expand...
Not to mention that places like rural Iowa, Wisconsin and even a good chunk of Indiana are pretty linked culturally to Chicago -- especially in the context of sports and entertainment. They really do not have anything in common with places like Mississippi, Arkansas or Alabama aside from the fact people in both parts of the country will occasionally eat at a diner along the nearest interstate.

People get the wrong impression that the south is unconditionally friendly, too. It's not.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top