The Official 2024 Reds season thread

Gh0st said:
Everyone knows spending money foolishly is just that foolish. The Reds need to do their homework and spend on a worthwhile investment.

You don't seem as bothered by the much higher unpredictability of drafting and developing. Teams go years without having multiple prospects hit pay dirt. Now that the Reds have multiple MLB ready prospects and a good young core of a team, the answer isn't to dump and re-draft. It's to sign veteran talent to shore up the holes.
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From everything he’s said here in recent years, I can only assume 14Red would much rather support the current-day Kansas City Royals or Oakland A’s — totally buried, irrelevant poverty franchises completely dependent on developing young players — than a team like the Cubs that pays to fill holes and was close to a playoff spot. Or a team like the Phillies that made the World Series last year and is back in the NLCS now — he has already admitted to disliking them and how they were built.
 
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14Red said:
Or your the Mets and you over pay and land on your face. Many fans just say spend money. It's not that easy. We have countless examples where free agents STUNK! My contention is in baseball, the gap between the superstar and the regular player isn't that big. And especially with young guys. You can buy some time before you have to decide who you're going to pay. And it's real, not all of these guys now with the Reds will be with us 3-4 years from now. You keep drafting and developing so you don't overpay.
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There’s no trophy given out for winning with the lowest payroll or winning with the highest degree of self-made difficulty.

The Reds have clear needs on this roster and the best way to fill them right now is to spend money. It can be argued that failure to spend money on starting pitching last year ultimately ended up costing the Reds a playoff spot.
 
14Red said:
Or your the Mets and you over pay and land on your face. Many fans just say spend money. It's not that easy. We have countless examples where free agents STUNK! My contention is in baseball, the gap between the superstar and the regular player isn't that big. And especially with young guys. You can buy some time before you have to decide who you're going to pay. And it's real, not all of these guys now with the Reds will be with us 3-4 years from now. You keep drafting and developing so you don't overpay.
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No one posting here is saying "go sign superstars". We all realize that the Reds cannot and will not.

There are now 16 players making 30 million per year or more - these are the superstars you speak of. There are 51 players making 20 million per year or more. The Reds will not have any of those guys, after the Votto option goes away. We are not asking for that.

Here is the message. I will use small words and explain clearly for you.

- After Votto contract option goes away, the Reds have a total of $7M in 2024 salary commitments.
- This is far and away the lowest 2024 salary in the MLB. A ridiculously low number.
- After all the young guys contracts are adjusted and signed the Reds will still be among the lowest payrolls in the MLB.
- The young guys are really good and the Reds can play .500 ball, as shown this past season.
- Since the payroll is very low, profits will be extremely high.
- Now is the time to go find some reasonably priced veteran players who can help the team.
- Go find maybe 2-3 bullpen guys, a starting pitcher, and a RH OF bat.
- The Reds can do this and still have a far below average MLB payroll
- Miser Bob and stupid Phil can still rake in the profits, while giving the team an improved chance of winning.

Clear enough?
 
wolves82 said:
No one posting here is saying "go sign superstars". We all realize that the Reds cannot and will not.

There are now 16 players making 30 million per year or more - these are the superstars you speak of. There are 51 players making 20 million per year or more. The Reds will not have any of those guys, after the Votto option goes away. We are not asking for that.

Here is the message. I will use small words and explain clearly for you.

- After Votto contract option goes away, the Reds have a total of $7M in 2024 salary commitments.
- This is far and away the lowest 2024 salary in the MLB. A ridiculously low number.
- After all the young guys contracts are adjusted and signed the Reds will still be among the lowest payrolls in the MLB.
- The young guys are really good and the Reds can play .500 ball, as shown this past season.
- Since the payroll is very low, profits will be extremely high.
- Now is the time to go find some reasonably priced veteran players who can help the team.
- Go find maybe 2-3 bullpen guys, a starting pitcher, and a RH OF bat.
- The Reds can do this and still have a far below average MLB payroll
- Miser Bob and stupid Phil can still rake in the profits, while giving the team an improved chance of winning.

Clear enough?
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I 100% agree. They could even go pretty big on an upper-tier starting pitcher and still have a pretty low payroll that results in massive profits — of course, profiting shouldn’t necessarily be the goal, but that seems to be 14Red’s chief concern.
 
AEW Champion said:
I 100% agree. They could even go pretty big on an upper-tier starting pitcher and still have a pretty low payroll that results in massive profits — of course, profiting shouldn’t necessarily be the goal, but that seems to be 14Red’s chief concern.
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Just playing devils advocate here. “Profiting shouldn’t necessarily be the goal” 😂
 
Give me Sonny Gray, Adam Duvall and a good lefty bullpenner and I would be content.
Greene
Gray
Abbott
Ashcraft
Williamson
 
You could likely get Sonny Gray for 2 years $32M and Chapman for 2 years $15M. Sign Votto for $3M on top of his buyout to be a DH and then make a trade for an arb2 rising stud of an outfielder.

This would keep the payroll low yet appease the MLBPA by spending some money. All the while putting this team in a position to win next year and beyond.
 
RazorRamon said:
Just playing devils advocate here. “Profiting shouldn’t necessarily be the goal” 😂
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I think what he means is that if you are just focused on +/- numbers as far as payroll (profit), having the lowest payroll doesn't guarantee profit or at least not the greatest profit. Having eyes on your product (in-game attendance and TV viewership) generates far more profit than operating on the cheap.
 
RazorRamon said:
Just playing devils advocate here. “Profiting shouldn’t necessarily be the goal” 😂
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Recognizing correctly that winning at least half the games keeps fans spending their money and boosting their viewership leads to increase revenue and possibly profits.

I hope the Reds learned that lesson this season. They don’t need to spend 100M this year on payroll. $50-$60M should make them a legit contender next season and extremely profitable.
 
wolves82 said:
Good observations.

I cannot imagine the Reds will chase a super expensive FA like Snell or Nola. But I agree that a more moderately priced guy would be great.

The big RH bat I keep seeing mentioned is Soler. He hit .251 with 36 HR with his home games in Miami; he'd be nice in GABP.
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Soler made $15M this year and has a player option for at least $9M (an additional $4M based on PA which he likely surpassed). The bidding will need to exceed $13M for next year or an offer of multiple years. Soler is 31.

What is he worth to the Reds?
 
wolves82 said:
- Now is the time to go find some reasonably priced veteran players who can help the team.
- Go find maybe 2-3 bullpen guys, a starting pitcher, and a RH OF bat.

- Miser Bob and stupid Phil can still rake in the profits, while giving the team an improved chance of winning.

Clear enough?
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Yes, clear. But....reasonably priced veteran players...reasonable to who? Anyone you pinpoint as reasonable, the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers now, Padres, Phillies will likely double your bid. If they miss, they survive. If we miss, it's crushing.

Go find 2-3 bullpen guys, starting pitcher and OF bat.... AGAIN, I'll use small words, you're bidding against 20+ teams in baseball for that talent. Good luck.
 
AEW Champion said:
From everything he’s said here in recent years, I can only assume 14Red would much rather support the current-day Kansas City Royals or Oakland A’s — totally buried, irrelevant poverty franchises completely dependent on developing young players — than a team like the Cubs that pays to fill holes and was close to a playoff spot. Or a team like the Phillies that made the World Series last year and is back in the NLCS now — he has already admitted to disliking them and how they were built.
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It's really nice that you pinpoint the few teams it works for and fail to mention the teams that fail - Cubs, Yankees, Mets, Padres. The Padres and Mets were unquestionably the teams to beat in the NL. Neither made the playoffs.
 
14Red said:
Have you followed Chapman at all this year?
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Yes.
Chapman had a comparable year to his 2021 All Star year.

He would be an excellent addition to next year's team.

At age 35 he won't command more than a two year contract and may struggle to get that. The Reds can certainly afford to offer him that.
 
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14Red said:
Yes, clear. But....reasonably priced veteran players...reasonable to who? Anyone you pinpoint as reasonable, the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers now, Padres, Phillies will likely double your bid. If they miss, they survive. If we miss, it's crushing.

Go find 2-3 bullpen guys, starting pitcher and OF bat.... AGAIN, I'll use small words, you're bidding against 20+ teams in baseball for that talent. Good luck.
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Of course. You have to compete for the talent, no kidding. As I said, set a budget, stick to it, roll up your sleeves, and make it happen. Small business people do this all the time.

This is two posts where you seem to be suggesting that the Reds just give up because others will be trying also? What a wimpy way to think...
 
Indiandad said:
Soler made $15M this year and has a player option for at least $9M (an additional $4M based on PA which he likely surpassed). The bidding will need to exceed $13M for next year or an offer of multiple years. Soler is 31.

What is he worth to the Reds?
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I'd much prefer Soler to Duvall (age 35). Not sure if he is worth $15M + though. I'd go 12-13.

Soler has seemingly fixed his plate discipline issue; he walked more and raised his OBP this past year, and actually batted lead off for Marlins a lot this year. Power is undeniable, he hit 48 HR in KC one year, 36 in Miami last year. He is a 40+ guy in GABP.
 
One thing to consider with the outfielder spot is that the Reds probably will want someone who is capable of playing centerfield. In the event that TJ Friedl gets injured or significantly regresses next year, the Reds don’t seem to have a ton of good CF options behind him.

Senzel seems likely to be headed out the door. The front office seems to have little use for Barrero. Steer can’t play CF (or at least not well). You don’t want to be depending on unproven minor leaguers who might not be ready for the big leagues when you’re trying to contend. Benson and Fraley could play CF in a pinch, but that’s probably not a solution you’d want for any considerable length of time.
 
14Red said:
It's really nice that you pinpoint the few teams it works for and fail to mention the teams that fail - Cubs, Yankees, Mets, Padres. The Padres and Mets were unquestionably the teams to beat in the NL. Neither made the playoffs.
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Spending money isn’t always going to work. But it sure helps an awful lot.

We’ve been over this before, but since their 2009 World Series title, the Yankees have made 10 playoff appearances and 5 trips to the ALCS. Even though they haven’t gotten back to the World Series, the vast majority of the league would consider that amount of postseason and LCS appearances to be a big success.

The Padres were just in the NLCS last year. Yeah, they underperformed this year, but they could come back and turn it around next year.

Wanna talk about the Cubs? Remember when they had a very young, promising core of Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Baez and Addison Russell, along with Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks? Does that sound like where the Reds are right now? The Cubs didn’t rest on their laurels. They signed Jon Lester to a mega-deal before 2015, then signed John Lackey and Ben Zobrist to significant deals before 2016. The results were several playoff appearances and a World Series title in 2016. That’s what the Reds should essentially be looking to do. Use free agency to fill the key holes on the roster now that you’re ready to win.
 
Indiandad said:
Yes.
Chapman had a comparable year to his 2021 All Star year.

He would be an excellent addition to next year's team.

At age 35 he won't command more than a two year contract and may struggle to get that. The Reds can certainly afford to offer him that.
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I think I'd pass on him.
 
wolves82 said:
Of course. You have to compete for the talent, no kidding. As I said, set a budget, stick to it, roll up your sleeves, and make it happen. Small business people do this all the time.

This is two posts where you seem to be suggesting that the Reds just give up because others will be trying also? What a wimpy way to think...
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I never said give up. I just think you have to be realistic on who you can get. First of all most pitchers will likely not come simply because of the ball park, even if money is the same, which likely will not be.
 
AEW Champion said:
One thing to consider with the outfielder spot is that the Reds probably will want someone who is capable of playing centerfield. In the event that TJ Friedl gets injured or significantly regresses next year, the Reds don’t seem to have a ton of good CF options behind him.

Senzel seems likely to be headed out the door. The front office seems to have little use for Barrero. Steer can’t play CF (or at least not well). You don’t want to be depending on unproven minor leaguers who might not be ready for the big leagues when you’re trying to contend. Benson and Fraley could play CF in a pinch, but that’s probably not a solution you’d want for any considerable length of time.
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I'm not sure Fraley returns, but we'll see, I think Benson could play center, he's just never had the opportunity. He's one of the Reds most athletic players on a team full of athletes. I remember last season we kicked the tires on Albert Almora and he flamed out. That's what I mean. We've not had great track record of bringing in free agents who actually work out. If you can't get a considerable upgrade, then we may have guys in the minors who can do the job. Also remember the Tommy Pham experiment. I think most of our starting spots are set for 24, unless you can really get a bopper for a corner outfield spot, I don't see or catcher, I don't see a major change next season. I think you can easily bring in a middle of the road starter and some bullpen arms, it's just that's what everyone is looking for. Buyer beware. Our starting staff just needs to stay healthy, that will probably tell the story next season as much as anything.
 
14Red said:
I never said give up. I just think you have to be realistic on who you can get. First of all most pitchers will likely not come simply because of the ball park, even if money is the same, which likely will not be.
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Nothing I said in my posts was unrealistic. I'm not asking for Ohtani and specifically said we can't chase guys like Snell.

Also, if a pitcher is afraid to pitch in a certain ballpark, we don't need him. He has a defeatist attitude.
 
14Red said:
I'm not sure Fraley returns, but we'll see, I think Benson could play center, he's just never had the opportunity. He's one of the Reds most athletic players on a team full of athletes.
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He’s athletic, but it was an adventure watching him play corner outfield. His routes to balls weren’t the cleanest, to say the least. Because of that, he graded poorly in Baseball Savant’s range/Outs Above Average category. If you can’t read the ball well, that’s going to be magnified in CF where you have to cover more ground.
14Red said:
I remember last season we kicked the tires on Albert Almora and he flamed out. That's what I mean. We've not had great track record of bringing in free agents who actually work out.
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Almora was off the scrap heap, at best a defense-first bench player, more realistically a AAAA replacement player. That’s not the type of player the Reds have any business going after right now.
14Red said:
If you can't get a considerable upgrade, then we may have guys in the minors who can do the job.
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Who from the minors is ready to contribute as a major-league outfielder right now? Hope is not a strategy.
14Red said:
I think you can easily bring in a middle of the road starter and some bullpen arms, it's just that's what everyone is looking for. Buyer beware.
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“Buyer Beware”: Probably the most concise summary of 14Red’s entire attitude toward running a baseball team.

14Red:
Our starting staff just needs to stay healthy, that will probably tell the story next season as much as anything.

Again, hope is not a strategy. In case you haven’t noticed, pitching injuries are at an all-time high around the league. There will inevitably be injuries. Not bringing in a good starting pitcher would be a big mistake.
 
AEW Champion said:
He’s athletic, but it was an adventure watching him play corner outfield. His routes to balls weren’t the cleanest, to say the least. Because of that, he graded poorly in Baseball Savant’s range/Outs Above Average category. If you can’t read the ball well, that’s going to be magnified in CF where you have to cover more ground.

Almora was off the scrap heap, at best a defense-first bench player, more realistically a AAAA replacement player. That’s not the type of player the Reds have any business going after right now.

Who from the minors is ready to contribute as a major-league outfielder right now? Hope is not a strategy.

“Buyer Beware”: Probably the most concise summary of 14Red’s entire attitude toward running a baseball team.

14Red:
Our starting staff just needs to stay healthy, that will probably tell the story next season as much as anything.

Again, hope is not a strategy. In case you haven’t noticed, pitching injuries are at an all-time high around the league. There will inevitably be injuries. Not bringing in a good starting pitcher would be a big mistake.
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Isn’t “hope” a strategy when signing free agents? Just saying
 
wolves82 said:
Nothing I said in my posts was unrealistic. I'm not asking for Ohtani and specifically said we can't chase guys like Snell.

Also, if a pitcher is afraid to pitch in a certain ballpark, we don't need him. He has a defeatist attitude.
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But if a pitcher has choices, they may opt out of Cincy because of the ballpark. I mean you have to admit there are alot of routine fly balls that make it to the seats in GABP.
 
AEW Champion said:
Who from the minors is ready to contribute as a major-league outfielder right now? Hope is not a strategy.
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Looking at the Reds prospect list, Reece Hines is listed as 2024 ETA, As is Blake Dunn, Hector Rodriguez and Jay Allen are listed as 2025. Also many of the other top prospects are listed as infielders, so we may seem some guys, both current and prospects may be changing positions.
 
wolves82 said:
I'd much prefer Soler to Duvall (age 35). Not sure if he is worth $15M + though. I'd go 12-13.

Soler has seemingly fixed his plate discipline issue; he walked more and raised his OBP this past year, and actually batted lead off for Marlins a lot this year. Power is undeniable, he hit 48 HR in KC one year, 36
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14Red said:
I'm not sure Fraley returns, but we'll see, I think Benson could play center, he's just never had the opportunity. He's one of the Reds most athletic players on a team full of athletes. I remember last season we kicked the tires on Albert Almora and he flamed out. That's what I mean. We've not had great track record of bringing in free agents who actually work out. If you can't get a considerable upgrade, then we may have guys in the minors who can do the job. Also remember the Tommy Pham experiment. I think most of our starting spots are set for 24, unless you can really get a bopper for a corner outfield spot, I don't see or catcher, I don't see a major change next season. I think you can easily bring in a middle of the road starter and some bullpen arms, it's just that's what everyone is looking for. Buyer beware. Our starting staff just needs to stay healthy, that will probably tell the story next season as much as anything.
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The track record on proven quality FA has been good.

The track record on washed up cheap FA is not.
RazorRamon said:
Isn’t “hope” a strategy when signing free agents? Just saying
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No. You look at past performance, age, current trajectory of performance and salary demands.

Hope is nowhere in there.
 
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