The Official 2023 Cincinnati Reds Thread
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wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Yes, I think Krall and the Castellinis wanted to get rid of Castillo, that's why they did. It's not about "favorite" players. It is about keeping your great players at under market cost. Which they did not do. The contract that he signed in Seattle was very fair to the team and the player, based on the market, and I'm sure the Reds could have kept him for even less than that.
P.S> I would definitely keep Greene and Lodolo for $200,000. But I suspect you meant $200 million. Why that number? Castillo just signed 6 years for $133M. Greene and Lodolo are a long way away from being as good as Luis. If you think that they are going to become so good that they can command $200M contracts, wouldn't it be smart to see how they do next year, and then offer them a contract extension like Castillo's if they do well?
Again, It is about keeping your great players at under market cost. Smart teams do that. Krall and the Castellinis will not.
14Red
Well-known member
And if it's fair for one team, it's not necessarily fair for all teams. Look I liked Castillo as much as anyone, but I think you're looking at him through rose colored glasses. He pitched his best baseball with the Reds about 6 weeks before he was traded. His ceiling was very high, but as we've had alot the last few years, the consistency hasn't been there for Castillo. I wish him all the best.
Meanwhile, the track Greene is on, he's can be a dominant starter in 2023. If this kid stays healthy, the sky's the limit. I said $200 million for them because they are not due for a few years to even talk next contract.
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1. How would the contract Castillo ended up signing be unfair for the Reds, since that seems to be what you’re implying?
2. Where are you getting this Castillo inconsistency stuff? His worst year was 2018 when he had a mediocre 4.30 ERA. He started off 2021 rough the first several weeks. Other than that, he was pretty much dynamite the entire rest of his Reds tenure. Stats are shown above bearing this out.
3. Smart teams would try to lock up guys like India, Stephenson, Greene and Lodolo to team-friendly deals now, which take on a certain amount of risk to the team but not crazy risk, while also giving the player the security of life-changing money early in their career in exchange for giving up a couple years of free agency. This keeps the Reds from having to lose their best players as soon as their arbitration years are over because they can’t or won’t pay the $200 million contract you’re referencing.
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Gh0st
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This is 100%, complete nonsense. The Reds wait for a window when multiple minor league prospects pan out, sign one or two veterans to fill a hole, make a push, sell those players at the highest value (the rebuild) and wait for the next window.
14Red
Well-known member
I've watched Luis his whole Reds career, he was inconsistent. Now you do factor in that he was on mostly not great teams, but it was what it was.
I love the notion that many fans have that we have to "lock up" young players. They are young players on first contracts, the CBA is set up so teams don't have to pay big bucks for young talent until their times up. Why in the heck would you sink a bunch of money in India and Stephenson, two guys who simply can't stay healthy. Remember Eugenio Suarez?? Now he was a little older but the Reds stuck their neck out a few years ago, sighed him to a big contract and he was one of the worst hitters in baseball last season, and with a few more years, it made all the sense in the world to move on from him. To his credit he bounced back nicely this season. Also Devin Mesoraco, same thing. Signed to a decent contract and injuries derailed him.
Let's worry about paying guys when it's time and after we find out if they are going to truly be worth it or not. As much as I like Hunter Greene, he's under Reds control until 2027. I'm fine with waiting a few years to see how this story plays out.
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So how do you feel about the Braves locking up all kinds of young players?
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wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Sigh. So you and Krall/Castellini think the same, which is "Let's not pay someone until we have to." At which point he is too good and therefore too expensive, so we have to trade him.
The whole point that AEW and I keep making is that the smarter teams will take a little risk while the player is still young and proving himself. The young guys are happy to take the deal, and if you evaluate the players correctly, you end up with above average players at below average prices.
Example: Eugenio Suarez. The Reds were actually smart enough to extend him. Then he had a bad year in 2021, and they got scared and traded him. This year he is the 14th most expensive 3rd basemen, yet he was 3rd in HR and 7th in RBI among 3B. That's called having an above average player at a better-than-market price. Reds rarely do it, and the one time they did, they still crapped the bed.
14Red
Well-known member
We'll see how it works for them. Now I will say they hit home runs with their drafting and developing of Ronald Acuna Jr, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley. Now they did go buy Marcel Ozuna and Matt Olson to plug some holes. I do hope the Reds do go look to plug holes with proven vets. The Cardinals do this with Goldschimdt and Arenado.
Don't get me wrong, alot of you guys want black and white, I'm not saying the Reds should never sign guys to long term deals or go get high priced free agents. I think today, you have to do that do a certain degree. Just don't go nuts and give Jonathan India a 7-8 year contract for $15 mill a season until we find out if he can be an everyday major league baseball player.
14Red
Well-known member
But with Suarez, the Reds were rebuilding, and he was due, including this season, $35 million over the next 3 seasons including a buyout in 2025. They saw a opportunity to move him, include Winker and get some high end prospects in return. Not good for now, but possibly in the future.
You guys are so ticked at the ownership group you can't see straight. The Reds WENT FOR IT last season, 2021. They were 83-79 and missed the playoffs. Castellenos had a career year. They squeezed everything they could out of Votto, Sonny, Miley. There was no way you could bring that group back, add more and deveop Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
So you are opposed to idea of taking a little risk to have above average players at below market prices? Got it.
14Red
Well-known member
I"m not signing guys to long term deals who are barley into their rookie contracts if that's what you're saying. I suppose you wanted to sign Nick Senzel to big deal in 2019? Got it.
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It’s disingenuous to say the Reds went for it in 2021. They reduced payroll after 2020 by getting rid of two of their best relievers, Raisel Iglesias (traded to save money, per Nick Krall) and Archie Bradley (not tendered an arbitration offer). They also made zero effort to re-sign free agent starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani.
They were essentially shamed into making a couple modest bullpen additions at the trade deadline but made no deadline big splash. I suspect the ownership was prepared for a bad year and would have sold a couple big players at the 2021 deadline if the team didn’t outperform its expectations.
I hardly consider the actions of the Reds’ ownership and front office as “WENT FOR IT.”
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AEW Champion
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Nick Senzel has never been good at the pro level and no one here has ever suggested giving him a contract, to my knowledge.
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AEW Champion
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You’re seriously not sure whether Jonathan India can be an everyday player? Wow. I know he didn’t have a very good 2022 season, but I chalk all of that up to two reasons:
1. Pressing too much to try to make up some slack from 2021’s departed offensive stars. India himself admitted this late in the season.
2. Playing through injury nearly all season. He hurt his hamstring early and the idiot training staff allowed him to play again too soon, and then he re-injured it and missed more time. Between that and the compartment-syndrome-like shin issue from the Field of Dreams Game hit by pitch, it was clear he was often playing through injury in 2022.
Keep in mind he was the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year. I have faith he will be a good player as well as a clubhouse leader moving forward.
No one is saying to pay him $15 million a year. Only six second basemen in MLB are making that kind of average annual value, and two of those are established star players who converted from SS (Trevor Story and Marcus Semien). The others are Jose Altuve, D.J. LeMahieu, Ketel Marte and Jean Segura.
There’s a happy medium below that average annual value that would work. Something like a 6-year, $54 million to $60 million deal would probably get it done. That gives the Reds two years (27-28) of India’s free agent years.
Now, I think India is a Scott Boras client, so a deal might not get done, but why not try? It’s ultimately the player’s decision, not Scott’s.
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14Red
Well-known member
yea right, like it was Castellenos decision. He had us all snowed in Cincy that he loved it here and wanted to stay. If that's the case, don't get an agent. I've always said, how many millions do you guys need? Castellenos, through Boros got his big payday.
Jury is out on India. I hope he pans out, but he's been largely injured his first two full seasons in baseball. He's an adequate 2nd baseman, not great, I don't project him being a 3rd baseman or corner outfielder. He's not a bopper. He's a good solid player. We will see.
According to baseball-reference, India is arbitration eligible in 2024 and hits free agency in 2027. We got him for a long time. There no need to pay him any more at this time.
14Red
Well-known member
But according you you guys, you want to "lock up" your young talent???? That's the thing, you guys just pick and choose - AFTER the fact of what should be done. It doesn't work that way.
14Red
Well-known member
There was NO WAY they were going to sign Bauer, c'mon man. And I really don't understand the facination with Archie Bradley. he was in cincy 1 year, pitched 7 innings and was hurt the rest of the time. Iglesias was expensive for what he gave us. Disco, he was a victim of the salary structure of major league baseball where guys just automatically get bigger contracts even if their performance doesn't warrant it. DeSclafani is making $12 million a year!!! He's not that kind of pitcher and he's got two more years with the Giants...Incredibly terrible contract. BTW, Disco in 2022 - 19 innings pitched. 19 INNINGS PITCHED!!! Could you image if the Reds signed him to the same $12 mill a year and he pitched 5 games??? You think Mike Minor got raked over the coals...
And yet the Reds are cheap?????? What am I missing here????
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
No one ever said that. Especially not me.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
If you can find any posts in any of the old threads where someone said to sign Senzel long term, please share. Otherwise .
I wanted them to extend Castillo last year. He was a proven commodity and lights-out good June-September after a poor start. We could have had a true ace for 5-6 years at below market cost.
Earlier this year I suggested that the team watch India and Stephenson this year, and if they progress as expected, offer them reasonable extensions also. That did not happen due to injuries. I say the same thing for next year. If these two guys progress, the Reds need to try to hang on to them with an extension.
The earlier you offer the extension, the lower the annual price that it will take for the young player to sign. Witness KeBryan Hayes in Pittsburgh. They did it right. Are they taking a risk? Yes, a little bit. But if their player evaluations and scouts are worth a darn, they should trust them. It is the only way teams can survive on smaller budgets - GET ABOVE AVERAGE PLAYER FOR BELOW MARKET PRICE.
I've said it a dozen times today - hoping it sinks in.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Wait a minute. You accused us of using hindsight after the fact. Then you used hindsight after the fact. Allow me to summarize the discussion:
--------------
14Red: The Reds went for it in 2021, trying to win it all.
AEW: Nope, before 2021 they made the bullpen worse by not keeping Bradley and Iglesias, and made the rotation worse by not keeping Bauer and DeScalafani. Moves were made to save money, not to win.
14Red: The Reds were smart because Disco got hurt. (Hindsight - and a deflection of the truth).
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Bottom line, the Reds did not go for it in 2021. Giving away 4 of your better pitchers from 2020 does not strengthen the team in order to go for it. It was just to save money. It is irrelevant that Disco got hurt or that Bauer is a brutal pervert. It is fortunate that the Reds did not sign them, but it does not support your initial statement, which was dead wrong.
14Red
Well-known member
You can say it two dozen, we just have a different philosophy. and you know what, IT DOESN'T MATTER!!!!
14Red
Well-known member
Yep, Archie Bradley was the lynchpin to our bullpen success....give me a break. All you guys said is they should have run it back this year. Good heavens you guys are dense.
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I’ve been on the record on this forum as saying that if the Reds planned on having a fire sale after 2021, they should have started around the end of June 2021 when the team was slightly below .500 and not looking like anything special.
Instead, they got nothing for Castellanos, ended up getting less for Mahle than if they would have traded him a year sooner, and, even worse, gave away Wade Miley for nothing when they easily could have picked up his team option and then traded him for something of value.
On the same token, if they cared to try to win in 2022, they could have traded Wade Miley to save the $10M from his contract, elevated Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to the rotation, re-signed Nick Castellanos or a suitable cheaper replacement like Joc Pederson, signed a mid-tier SS, and spent a little more to upgrade the bullpen.
They could have went into 2022 with Castillo, Gray, Mahle, Greene and Lodolo as their rotation. Moved Gutierrez and Sanmartin to the bullpen from the get-go. And could have had a decent lineup led by Castellanos/Pederson, Winker, India and Stephenson while hoping for a pulse from Suarez or Moustakas.
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AEW Champion
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Yeah, but by the looks of it, your philosophy is to have the Reds truly act as nothing but a glorified farm system for richer MLB teams by blooding a player for 4 or 5 years, then getting rid of them and likely missing out on at least the back half of that player’s peak prime years if the player is any good.
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wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Right.
My philosophy is that a sports franchise should be trying to win. If the budget is tight, as it is for the Reds, it makes sense to sign your better players for salaries that are less than market price.
Your philosophy seems to be that winning is less important than the owners making a profit, and whatever they do is just fine by you.
14Red
Well-known member
Thanks for making my decisions for me, that's very liberal of you.
I think the Reds and most small market teams have to be REALLY careful how they spend. The Yankees probably have more money tied up in guys NOT on the playoff roster than the Reds regular team. Big market teams have less worreis, they can overspend and get away with it. The Red Sox and Angels are the exact opposite of the Reds in they spend alot of money and yet they don't win.
I could care less if the owners make a profit. I really could care less who owns the teams. It's amazing that many of you guys are so bitter towards big business that it just clouds any enjoyment of being a fan. Is it really that bad?? I mean do you want the Reds to sell and go to another city? The Reds are a historic, long standing franchise in major league baseball. It's an institution for the city.
As fans we can only decide to support the team or not. I like baseball, I like the Reds. I know that with 30 teams in major league baseball that not every team wins. Lance McCallister put up on his Twitter that 12 of the 30 teams have not won a world series since the Reds in 1990. That's more than a third. The tired phrase that they NEVER win is simply not true.
I choose to support the team and be positive. It makes being a fan much better. You should try it.
14Red
Well-known member
Man, you should be a MLB general manager? You have all the answers after the season is over.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
I did not make any decisions for you, I said "Your philosophy seems to be...", which means that based on your comments, that's how I interpret it. READ ALL THE WORDS.Thanks for making my decisions for me, that's very liberal of you.
I think the Reds and most small market teams have to be REALLY careful how they spend. The Yankees probably have more money tied up in guys NOT on the playoff roster than the Reds regular team. Big market teams have less worreis, they can overspend and get away with it. The Red Sox and Angels are the exact opposite of the Reds in they spend alot of money and yet they don't win.
I could care less if the owners make a profit. I really could care less who owns the teams. It's amazing that many of you guys are so bitter towards big business that it just clouds any enjoyment of being a fan. Is it really that bad?? I mean do you want the Reds to sell and go to another city? The Reds are a historic, long standing franchise in major league baseball. It's an institution for the city.
As fans we can only decide to support the team or not. I like baseball, I like the Reds. I know that with 30 teams in major league baseball that not every team wins. Lance McCallister put up on his Twitter that 12 of the 30 teams have not won a world series since the Reds in 1990. That's more than a third. The tired phrase that they NEVER win is simply not true.
I choose to support the team and be positive. It makes being a fan much better. You should try it.
As for Big Business, I love big business. I'm part owner of a small software service provider, and all of our customers are big businesses. When they do well and are profitable, our business does better.
I realize that not every MLB team can win. I just want my team to try to win, and to do so intelligently. Is that so wrong?
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
In his defense, he said this same thing before and during the season.
Again, read the words. Try very hard to understand them. If you can't be bothered to do that, then do not make comments in reply.