The Official 2021 Cincinnati Reds Thread

zeeman

Well-known member
This team doesnt deserve the playoffs, seems my early assessment of blowing it all up and starting over was correct
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
My opinion is that of the four teams vying for the last wild card position, the Reds have the least talent. It's hard to see/say that because they are our team. They have gone 2-5 since I said that may be done including 1-3 against the Tigers/Cubs thus far and have been behind early in each game. They have gotten career years out of Farmer, Castellanos, Barnhart, Miley and to a lesser degree Mahle. Superb seasons from two rookies(Stephenson/India) that no one expected plus a resurgent Votto. Castilo has been a disappointment and I have yet to figure out Sonny Gray. At some point over the course of 162 you become what you are and we have seen it the past 13 games. I'm not saying we are 4-9 bad but the water is leveling off. Still hopeful with the remaining schedule to right the ship but 3 days in St. Louis this coming weekend could prove fatal. One can't expect Winker to roll off the DL and start banging. So we dance with who we brought and its time for veterans to be veterans. Simple
 

14Red

Well-known member
This team doesnt deserve the playoffs, seems my early assessment of blowing it all up and starting over was correct
I'll agree with the first statement, I'm not sure what you mean by blowing it all up. Unless you have most of your team's contracts expiring about the same time, this is nearly impossible.

This team seems like it's been behind in nearly every game the past 3 weeks. Ian Happ has been awful the entire season, they Cubs get rid of all their good players and Happ was left standing. The last series against us, he got hot. So in my mind, he's the one guy I don't let beat me and Sonny put himself in a spot yesterday where he had to pitch to him and we paid for it. Castillo stunk the first two months of the season, but he's pitched really well the last few months, yet we can't score when he pitches. I wonder how many of his 15 losses we scored 3 runs or less?

I agree, if we don't make the playoffs, we have no one to blame but ourselves. We were 4 games back of the Brewers at the all star break, let them sweep us and the division was over. We have a steady diet of the Marlins, Pirates, Cubs, Tigers the last month and we are under .500. If the Padres weren't awful in August we'd be 5-6 games back in the wild card.

At this point I have no idea if we can turn this around. The last two days we've seen two really good young prospects for the Tigers and Cubs, BUT they are young prospect. Heck the Tigers only threw their kid 3 innings on Sunday.
It's nice to be resilient like this team has been most of the season, but you don't need to be resilient if you just go out and take care of business. Beyond frustrated with this team.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
I'll agree with the first statement, I'm not sure what you mean by blowing it all up. Unless you have most of your team's contracts expiring about the same time, this is nearly impossible.

This team seems like it's been behind in nearly every game the past 3 weeks. Ian Happ has been awful the entire season, they Cubs get rid of all their good players and Happ was left standing. The last series against us, he got hot. So in my mind, he's the one guy I don't let beat me and Sonny put himself in a spot yesterday where he had to pitch to him and we paid for it. Castillo stunk the first two months of the season, but he's pitched really well the last few months, yet we can't score when he pitches. I wonder how many of his 15 losses we scored 3 runs or less?

I agree, if we don't make the playoffs, we have no one to blame but ourselves. We were 4 games back of the Brewers at the all star break, let them sweep us and the division was over. We have a steady diet of the Marlins, Pirates, Cubs, Tigers the last month and we are under .500. If the Padres weren't awful in August we'd be 5-6 games back in the wild card.

At this point I have no idea if we can turn this around. The last two days we've seen two really good young prospects for the Tigers and Cubs, BUT they are young prospect. Heck the Tigers only threw their kid 3 innings on Sunday.
It's nice to be resilient like this team has been most of the season, but you don't need to be resilient if you just go out and take care of business. Beyond frustrated with this team.
Blow it up means blow it up. Outright cut Suarez, Moose, Garrett, Shogo, Senzel, Aquino, Gray and Miley I know the Reds lose a lot of guaranteed money but this is the same team that’s paying Blotto 25 million at 37 years old. Money obviously not a big deal to them, plus they will recoup most of that with Castellanos bolting

Next years rotation:
Greene
Lodolo
Castillo
Mahle
Guiterez

1B Blotto
2B India
SS Barrero
3B Farmer
C Stevenson
LF Winker
CF Naquin
RF Friedl
 

14Red

Well-known member
Blow it up means blow it up. Outright cut Suarez, Moose, Garrett, Shogo, Senzel, Aquino, Gray and Miley I know the Reds lose a lot of guaranteed money but this is the same team that’s paying Blotto 25 million at 37 years old. Money obviously not a big deal to them, plus they will recoup most of that with Castellanos bolting

Next years rotation:
Greene
Lodolo
Castillo
Mahle
Guiterez

1B Blotto
2B India
SS Barrero
3B Farmer
C Stevenson
LF Winker
CF Naquin
RF Friedl
I can guarantee you this will not happen. Why do you say money isn't a big deal to them? Why would you think that? I think money is a HUGE deal in this an most smaller market teams.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
I can guarantee you this will not happen. Why do you say money isn't a big deal to them? Why would you think that? I think money is a HUGE deal in this an most smaller market teams.
I didn’t so it would I said it should. The Reds rank 20th out of 30 MLB teams in value at 1.4 billion with an estimated 300 million in revenue each year. The 100 million they would owe to the vastly overpaid players I listed is a drop in the bucket to the 1 billion in revenue over the next three years. By 2024 they should be in good shape to contend again. They will never win with a five hole hitter hitting .175 and no bullpen to speak of
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
I didn’t so it would I said it should. The Reds rank 20th out of 30 MLB teams in value at 1.4 billion with an estimated 300 million in revenue each year. The 100 million they would owe to the vastly overpaid players I listed is a drop in the bucket to the 1 billion in revenue over the next three years. By 2024 they should be in good shape to contend again. They will never win with a five hole hitter hitting .175 and no bullpen to speak of
I would say you keep all of the pitching minus Garrett. Gray can be a stud and Miley is a darn good end of the rotation guy and both are under contract for next year. Don't want to mention Saurez but he he's going no where. Senzel is also under contract for I believe three more years. I read a story on him from back in 2019 regarding how badly the Reds had handled him and its only gotten worse. Not sure if its the GM, owner or Bell but I think he has a bad case of the goo, as Marty would say.
Moose, Aquino and Shogo good riddance but I feel with their contracts all will be back.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
I would say you keep all of the pitching minus Garrett. Gray can be a stud and Miley is a darn good end of the rotation guy and both are under contract for next year. Don't want to mention Saurez but he he's going no where. Senzel is also under contract for I believe three more years. I read a story on him from back in 2019 regarding how badly the Reds had handled him and its only gotten worse. Not sure if its the GM, owner or Bell but I think he has a bad case of the goo, as Marty would say.
Moose, Aquino and Shogo good riddance but I feel with their contracts all will be back.
Then the Reds are stuck in mediocrity and the no championship streak will continue, sits at 31 years
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
Then the Reds are stuck in mediocrity and the no championship streak will continue, sits at 31 years
Not sure that was gonna change any way. They had a nice club from last year heading into this year and blew up the bullpen. Hindsight being 20/20 it would be a different story with that crew.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I didn’t so it would I said it should. The Reds rank 20th out of 30 MLB teams in value at 1.4 billion with an estimated 300 million in revenue each year. The 100 million they would owe to the vastly overpaid players I listed is a drop in the bucket to the 1 billion in revenue over the next three years. By 2024 they should be in good shape to contend again. They will never win with a five hole hitter hitting .175 and no bullpen to speak of
And they can blow it up, revamp everything in 2024 and still not win. It's simply not that easy. Remember, everyone else is trying to win too.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Not sure that was gonna change any way. They had a nice club from last year heading into this year and blew up the bullpen. Hindsight being 20/20 it would be a different story with that crew.
Actually I really feel just a couple of health arms ( Lorenzen specifically) would had made all the difference this season. And I'm not one to think that Rafael Iglesias would had made a difference. The Reds, as a team, just wasn't very good the first two months of the season, it wasn't just the bullpen.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
I didn’t so it would I said it should. The Reds rank 20th out of 30 MLB teams in value at 1.4 billion with an estimated 300 million in revenue each year. The 100 million they would owe to the vastly overpaid players I listed is a drop in the bucket to the 1 billion in revenue over the next three years. By 2024 they should be in good shape to contend again. They will never win with a five hole hitter hitting .175 and no bullpen to speak of
You have hit on the reason that salaries do matter. 300 million in revenue sounds great, but with 125 million in payroll just for the players, I would bet there is very little profit, and possibly a loss.

I haven't seen the books, but they have a great many other salaries (front office, stadium crew, broadcasters, marketing/sales, coaches, minor league salaries, etc. Plus buildings and facilities, including the AZ training center and staff there. Equipment, travel expenses (flights / buses / hotels / food) for the team, etc. I'm guessing Castellini does not make make much...
 

zeeman

Well-known member
You have hit on the reason that salaries do matter. 300 million in revenue sounds great, but with 125 million in payroll just for the players, I would bet there is very little profit, and possibly a loss.

I haven't seen the books, but they have a great many other salaries (front office, stadium crew, broadcasters, marketing/sales, coaches, minor league salaries, etc. Plus buildings and facilities, including the AZ training center and staff there. Equipment, travel expenses (flights / buses / hotels / food) for the team, etc. I'm guessing Castellini does not make make much...
You would be very wrong as usual, the 300 million does NOT include their deal with FSO. The Reds nearly doubled in value from 600 million to 1.1 billion from 2015 to 2018. Bob Castellini is worth 400 million. Annual profits are 30-50 million not including whatever they get from Fox. Chump change in your and 14reds book I'm sure
 

14Red

Well-known member
You would be very wrong as usual, the 300 million does NOT include their deal with FSO. The Reds nearly doubled in value from 600 million to 1.1 billion from 2015 to 2018. Bob Castellini is worth 400 million. Annual profits are 30-50 million not including whatever they get from Fox. Chump change in your and 14reds book I'm sure
I couldn't give a hoot what the owner makes, or is worth, or what players make. Back in the 80's or 90's, Sports Illustrated for some reason put out there what every player made. I think that's when sports changed drastically. Look, the players make what they make, I really don't care. But you have to know that teams decisions are largely based on who's getting paid. Mike Moustakas would not be playing at all if he made the major league minimum with his current performance (his big hit last night withstanding). But he's on the hook with the Reds for $38 mill the next 3 seasons. He's currently the second highest paid Red behind Votto.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
You would be very wrong as usual, the 300 million does NOT include their deal with FSO. The Reds nearly doubled in value from 600 million to 1.1 billion from 2015 to 2018. Bob Castellini is worth 400 million. Annual profits are 30-50 million not including whatever they get from Fox. Chump change in your and 14reds book I'm sure
OK, my mistake was taking your number of 300 million in revenue that you quoted and assuming it was accurate. My fault. Like I said, I haven't seen the books / numbers. And your "whatever they get from Fox" does not instill confidence in your other numbers.

But I'm also not interested enough to spend tons of time on it. Here is some quick info from Forbes, which is slightly more reliable than your numbers.

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall -- Reds are 4th from the bottom in valuation. 1.085 Billion

https://www.forbes.com/teams/cincinnati-reds/?sh=491c5aa23003 -- Reds show a 24M profit for 2020 and a 47M dollar loss in 2021, which is still in progress, obviously. Revenue numbers below 300 million per year.

Not sure what body cavity you pulled your numbers out of, but please provide sources.
 
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14Red

Well-known member
The worst part is in a month, we won't be talking Reds baseball anymore. I love the day to day grind of pro baseball. I don't understand why there is so much attention to the NFL. I do like the NFL, but it's only 17 games, and the time spent agonizing over football just isn't worth it to me.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Watching a part of the game last night I wanted to comment on. And it really just shows the lack of making any changes for David Bell. In the 8th inning when the Reds scored 2, India started the inning with a double. So 2nd base, 0 out in a 1 run game. Naquin is up, I don't know if it ever was even a consideration to bunt with Castellenos in the on deck circle and Votto behind him. If you're not going to bunt in that situation, then you're never bunting. I like Naquin, he's had a great year for us, but is he a "non-bunt" guy??? So he strikes out, Castellenos grounds out to 3rd. Votto intentionally walked. Moustakas bails out Bell with a clutch single.

I simply do not understand the lack of bunting there. In this case it worked out, thank goodness, but this again is an issue especially with this team and their inability to manufacture runs.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
OK, my mistake was taking your number of 300 million in revenue that you quoted and assuming it was accurate. My fault. Like I said, I haven't seen the books / numbers. And your "whatever they get from Fox" does not instill confidence in your other numbers.

But I'm also not interested enough to spend tons of time on it. Here is some quick info from Forbes, which is slightly more reliable than your numbers.

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall -- Reds are 4th from the bottom in valuation. 1.085 Billion

https://www.forbes.com/teams/cincinnati-reds/?sh=491c5aa23003 -- Reds show a 24M profit for 2020 and a 47M dollar loss in 2021, which is still in progress, obviously. Revenue numbers below 300 million per year.

Not sure what body cavity you pulled your numbers out of, but please provide sources.
Don’t care if you don’t like my numbers 😂 they come directly from a Forbes article. Just go on and keep tracking those hard hit balls
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Don’t care if you don’t like my numbers 😂 they come directly from a Forbes article. Just go on and keep tracking those hard hit balls
I provided links to Forbes numbers, you did not? 🤷‍♂️

But enough of that, I care more about the Reds being alive in the playoff race. Somehow after a terrible stretch we are still alive and it is fun.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Watching a part of the game last night I wanted to comment on. And it really just shows the lack of making any changes for David Bell. In the 8th inning when the Reds scored 2, India started the inning with a double. So 2nd base, 0 out in a 1 run game. Naquin is up, I don't know if it ever was even a consideration to bunt with Castellenos in the on deck circle and Votto behind him. If you're not going to bunt in that situation, then you're never bunting. I like Naquin, he's had a great year for us, but is he a "non-bunt" guy??? So he strikes out, Castellenos grounds out to 3rd. Votto intentionally walked. Moustakas bails out Bell with a clutch single.

I simply do not understand the lack of bunting there. In this case it worked out, thank goodness, but this again is an issue especially with this team and their inability to manufacture runs.
I've explained the sabermetrics thinking before; they do not believe in intentionally giving away an out (unless it is the pitcher batting).

Naquin is a lefty who pulls a lot and hits for power. You don't take the bat out of his hands. He normally should be able to get the ball to the right side and advance the runner. It didn't work out that time, but that is why Bell didn't bunt.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I've explained the sabermetrics thinking before; they do not believe in intentionally giving away an out (unless it is the pitcher batting).

Naquin is a lefty who pulls a lot and hits for power. You don't take the bat out of his hands. He normally should be able to get the ball to the right side and advance the runner. It didn't work out that time, but that is why Bell didn't bunt.
He took the bat out of his own hands. I don't believe you're intentionally giving away an out. You are trading an out to move the runner to 3rd base. Then the next hitter's job becomes much easier because there are LOTS of ways to score from 3rd, even without a hit. I don't think in any of Naquin's swings he was even trying to put the ball on the right side on the ground. Early in the game, ok I get it, swing away, who cares. But at some point you HAVE to get that runner to 3rd. If you can't intentionally hit a ground ball on the right side, then bunt the stinkin ball.

I understand the though process behind sabermetrics, I just dont' believe them.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I provided links to Forbes numbers, you did not? 🤷‍♂️

But enough of that, I care more about the Reds being alive in the playoff race. Somehow after a terrible stretch we are still alive and it is fun.
Thank goodness the Padres have been horrible since Aug. 1. Now the Phillies and Cardinals are back in the mix.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Thinking about Wade Miley from last night, it seems like he's been right in the middle of stopping alot of our losing streaks this season. So this brings up a question for next season. I could argue that Miley may have been our most important/ productive pitcher this season. Coming into the season, I'll admit I was very skeptical of the $8 mill we were spending on him. He's been hurt most of the time with us and just hasn't been effective.
But he really picked up the team, especially in April and May when we were sputtering. He's been consistent, he's been good in the clubhouse. The Reds have a $1 mill buyout on him next season, or they pay him $10 mill for the season. Gray is on board for next season, Castillo and Mahle is arbitration eligible, due for big raises I would guess. Vlad Gutierrez is at the major league minimum.
I'll speculate that Hunter Green is on the opening day rotation for 2022, I think Lodolo is a 1/2 year or more away. I just don't know that the team can spend $10 mill on Miley next season, with all the other bumps they are doing. He'll be 35 years old and we may have held off father time with him this season and we may need to let him go. Thoughts?
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
He took the bat out of his own hands. I don't believe you're intentionally giving away an out. You are trading an out to move the runner to 3rd base. Then the next hitter's job becomes much easier because there are LOTS of ways to score from 3rd, even without a hit. I don't think in any of Naquin's swings he was even trying to put the ball on the right side on the ground. Early in the game, ok I get it, swing away, who cares. But at some point you HAVE to get that runner to 3rd. If you can't intentionally hit a ground ball on the right side, then bunt the stinkin ball.

I understand the though process behind sabermetrics, I just dont' believe them.
I totally agree with the thought yet understand its about the numbers for the players. I thought it was about winning. I'm also the guy that can't understand why any hitter can't push a ball via bunt/slap through the opposite side of a shift. It would seem to me if you try it 10-15 times over the course of the season you reward yourself and your team not to mention maybe they would be less inclined to put it on.
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
Thinking about Wade Miley from last night, it seems like he's been right in the middle of stopping alot of our losing streaks this season. So this brings up a question for next season. I could argue that Miley may have been our most important/ productive pitcher this season. Coming into the season, I'll admit I was very skeptical of the $8 mill we were spending on him. He's been hurt most of the time with us and just hasn't been effective.
But he really picked up the team, especially in April and May when we were sputtering. He's been consistent, he's been good in the clubhouse. The Reds have a $1 mill buyout on him next season, or they pay him $10 mill for the season. Gray is on board for next season, Castillo and Mahle is arbitration eligible, due for big raises I would guess. Vlad Gutierrez is at the major league minimum.
I'll speculate that Hunter Green is on the opening day rotation for 2022, I think Lodolo is a 1/2 year or more away. I just don't know that the team can spend $10 mill on Miley next season, with all the other bumps they are doing. He'll be 35 years old and we may have held off father time with him this season and we may need to let him go. Thoughts?
As i said a couple of days ago I like all of the starters to stay. 10mil is not alot for what he brings to the team. He's also a bulldog on the mound and a good influence on the younger guys, showing them you don't have to try to overpower hitters If Mahle could get more pitch efficient he could stay in games longer. The Reds staying in the playoff probably hurt Greene's chances of getting some big league time this Sept.
 

JUSTGOPLAY

Well-known member
.....Winker being out of the lineup is a big factor, but watching this Reds team you can tell that "The games have just got too big for em"..... Votto and Moustakus are about the only guys on this roster that have ever been in a pennant race, and Moose has let himself get so fat that his skills have deteriorated. We got 21 games left. The only shot we've got is maybe Winker gets back in the next couple of days, and maybe injects a little spark and they could relax and play. As it stands now "This bunch needs a group Heimlich Maneuver".
 

wolves82

Well-known member
As i said a couple of days ago I like all of the starters to stay. 10mil is not alot for what he brings to the team. He's also a bulldog on the mound and a good influence on the younger guys, showing them you don't have to try to overpower hitters If Mahle could get more pitch efficient he could stay in games longer. The Reds staying in the playoff probably hurt Greene's chances of getting some big league time this Sept.
Agreed. I was critical of Miley before the season, but he has been very valuable in many ways. If the team wants to try to compete next year, he is a keeper. If they are going to start over, he will be gone.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
.....Winker being out of the lineup is a big factor, but watching this Reds team you can tell that "The games have just got too big for em"..... Votto and Moustakus are about the only guys on this roster that have ever been in a pennant race, and Moose has let himself get so fat that his skills have deteriorated. We got 21 games left. The only shot we've got is maybe Winker gets back in the next couple of days, and maybe injects a little spark and they could relax and play. As it stands now "This bunch needs a group Heimlich Maneuver".
Mostly agreed, but India has continued to play well / loose. Several other guys seem to have choked up when the calendar turned to September...

Winker returning could provide a spark to the team for sure. This offense looks dead.
 
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