The Official 2021 Cincinnati Reds Thread

zeeman

Well-known member
Realistic?

The team has the 4th best record in the NL. Do they have some flaws? Absolutely. Bullpen; injuries to Winker, Senzel and Antone; lack of expected production from Suarez, Moose, Aquino, Shogo. But they have the 4th best record in the NL.

Saying they are finished is not being realistic. It is being a typical fan who panics at the smallest sign of a team slump.
I believe his quote was close to being finished and you went on a tirade
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
Who expected production from Aquino? He had one crazy month in which the Reds were playing out the string of the season. Has not done squat when it matters. Maybe that's Geno's problem as well. Great offensive production when you're 12 games out in May. I did not check his stats from 2014-19 in case I'm called out on it, was just an observation.
That's why the 70's Reds were so beloved. Big game dudes 1-8.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Who expected production from Aquino? He had one crazy month in which the Reds were playing out the string of the season. Has not done squat when it matters. Maybe that's Geno's problem as well. Great offensive production when you're 12 games out in May. I did not check his stats from 2014-19 in case I'm called out on it, was just an observation.
That's why the 70's Reds were so beloved. Big game dudes 1-8.
Not to get into a dissertation of era's of baseball, but the 1970's was a long time ago, the game was much different back then. No shift, little analytics, good or bad, you saw maybe 2-3 pitchers per game, not 5-6 like now. Defenses were much more athletic and better than back then. I think that has as much to do with declining batting averages than anything else. Sure you would "shade" someone a step or two one side, but baseball players cover so much more ground now. Watch an episide of the MLB network's plays of the week and it will blow your mind. A weeks worth of plays was a years' worth in the 70's.

I've chronicled Geno's issues before on here. He has an incredibly long swing. He has to start his swing so early that he can't adjust to the breaking ball, and he basically has to guess on fastball's and hope its in the plate area. Now, "most" major league pitchers are around the plate enough he's been able to get away with it for a long time. Jay Bruce was the same way, long swing. Maybe, like a football DB, you lose a half step and it's over. Maybe Geno just can't start the bat soon enough anymore?
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
Not to get into a dissertation of era's of baseball, but the 1970's was a long time ago, the game was much different back then. No shift, little analytics, good or bad, you saw maybe 2-3 pitchers per game, not 5-6 like now. Defenses were much more athletic and better than back then. I think that has as much to do with declining batting averages than anything else. Sure you would "shade" someone a step or two one side, but baseball players cover so much more ground now. Watch an episide of the MLB network's plays of the week and it will blow your mind. A weeks worth of plays was a years' worth in the 70's.

I've chronicled Geno's issues before on here. He has an incredibly long swing. He has to start his swing so early that he can't adjust to the breaking ball, and he basically has to guess on fastball's and hope its in the plate area. Now, "most" major league pitchers are around the plate enough he's been able to get away with it for a long time. Jay Bruce was the same way, long swing. Maybe, like a football DB, you lose a half step and it's over. Maybe Geno just can't start the bat soon enough anymore?
You may be right, I may be crazy-Billy Joel. IDK-just offering up observations. I cannot stand called third strikes especially in the middle of the zone. I was taught many moons ago to not be a "guess" hitter. Think fastball and adjust. It's not just Geno as well, plenty of them up and down every lineup. Nick C. always swinging at breaking pitches that don't even start in the zone.
I will let you all figure it out. Like our starting arms a lot. More than likely wouldn't be in this position if we had an average bullpen from day one. Cincy is a great town when the Reds are in the hunt.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Big day Reds fans. In April very few thought the Reds would be contending. Most of us said this was about a .500 team. Well, its Sept 1 and here we are, tied for a wild card spot and 2.5 up on the Cardinals.

Hope the hitters re-charged their batteries on the night off. Getting swept today would be damaging mentally and let the Cards right back in the race. Sweeping them would boost confidence and hold the Cards at bay for a while.

Nice thing about the 7 inning DH games is we have less bullpen exposure. It is fun to have big games in Sept. Mikolas vs. Miley and Happ vs. Gray. Big day. Let's go!!
 

14Red

Well-known member
You may be right, I may be crazy-Billy Joel. IDK-just offering up observations. I cannot stand called third strikes especially in the middle of the zone. I was taught many moons ago to not be a "guess" hitter. Think fastball and adjust. It's not just Geno as well, plenty of them up and down every lineup. Nick C. always swinging at breaking pitches that don't even start in the zone.
I will let you all figure it out. Like our starting arms a lot. More than likely wouldn't be in this position if we had an average bullpen from day one. Cincy is a great town when the Reds are in the hunt.
And no doubt, we are criticizing highly skilled athletes who are the best at what they do. I feel hitting a baseball (at the major league level) may be one of the most difficult things to do in sports.
I know for me, I wasn't a very good hitter and I only played up to small college baseball. I'm guessing I may have seen a few 80+ mph fastballs, but nothing like what major league batters see. You really have split seconds to:

A. See the pitch
B. Read the spin - backward rotation - fastball, side or top to bottom - breaking ball, and then judging the speed also - change up.
C. Is the ball in the strike zone?

You are correct, the starting rotation has been kind of under appreciated this season. Now they haven't pitched great all the time, but Castillo, Gray, Mahle and Miley have started mostly the whole season, and Gutierrez was added in June and hasn't missed a beat.

The biggest fallacy I see with this team is their lack of ability to manufacture runs. The lack of team speed, coupled with Bell's insistence that they don't steal bases or even start runners makes it very a very station to station, stagnant team. In 2014-17, Todd Frazier, who was slow, stole 20-15-13 bases those years just when pitchers wouldn't pay attention to him. Now his percentage wasn't great as he was thrown out a few times, but I just think when you're in an offensive funk like the Reds are now, starting the runner occasionally puts pressure on the defense. Also, if the pitcher knows 100% you are not stealing, he's completely focused on the batter. You put that notion that you may run, all the sudden he's more worried about holding the runner close and can't focus on pitching.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
The biggest fallacy I see with this team is their lack of ability to manufacture runs. The lack of team speed, coupled with Bell's insistence that they don't steal bases or even start runners makes it very a very station to station, stagnant team. In 2014-17, Todd Frazier, who was slow, stole 20-15-13 bases those years just when pitchers wouldn't pay attention to him. Now his percentage wasn't great as he was thrown out a few times, but I just think when you're in an offensive funk like the Reds are now, starting the runner occasionally puts pressure on the defense. Also, if the pitcher knows 100% you are not stealing, he's completely focused on the batter. You put that notion that you may run, all the sudden he's more worried about holding the runner close and can't focus on pitching.
I agree with you that occasionally running puts pressure on pitchers. Biggest problem the Reds have is that the guys who could steal haven't been healthy / played much (Shogo and Senzel).

But this really comes down to the sabermetrics approach and mentality, which Bell has bought into. You do not sacrifice bunt because outs are gold, and you don't give away outs. And OBP is king in sabermetrics - being on base is gold, and getting thrown out is a cardinal sin, so very few SB attempts. As Billy Beane said in Moneyball: "I don't pay you to get thrown out at second. I pay you to get on first."

PS. "fallacy" means a misleading or incorrect idea. So I think you meant to choose another word there. It is no fallacy - the Reds clearly do not manufacture runs, I agree with your point.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I agree with you that occasionally running puts pressure on pitchers. Biggest problem the Reds have is that the guys who could steal haven't been healthy / played much (Shogo and Senzel).

But this really comes down to the sabermetrics approach and mentality, which Bell has bought into. You do not sacrifice bunt because outs are gold, and you don't give away outs. And OBP is king in sabermetrics - being on base is gold, and getting thrown out is a cardinal sin, so very few SB attempts. As Billy Beane said in Moneyball: "I don't pay you to get thrown out at second. I pay you to get on first."

PS. "fallacy" means a misleading or incorrect idea. So I think you meant to choose another word there. It is no fallacy - the Reds clearly do not manufacture runs, I agree with your point.
Thanks for the work correction, how about the biggest "downfall" I see with this team. And we can debate the sabermetrics until the cows come home, but to not even be a threat of a running team, if feel, puts us at a disadvantage. Even people who believe in the analytics still have to deviate from time to time. I feel a player with mediocre speed can still steal bases based on lead, timing and pitch selection. Getting thrown out isn't a cardinal sin if the percentages are in your favor.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Not a good day for Wade Miley, at least on the mound. 3 runs in 3 innings. 8 HITS for the Cardinals already! He did help himself with a 2 run double. I certainly hope this isn't the end of Miley for 2021. A guy who's not pitched alot the last few years, has been taking the ball regularly all season. He may have hit his wall.
 

14Red

Well-known member
The Cardinals have 12 hits in 3 1/3 innings, not sure why we have so many guys in the bullpen if you're not going to use them.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I don't understand the fascination with David Bell as the manager. He's adequate at best. Wade Miley didn't have it today, you'd were fortunate to get the lead back and you send him out for another inning. 12 hits in 4 innings, 5 runs and we're going to have to come back to win this one.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
I'd agree Bell stuck with Miley too long. And then he absolutely panicked in the 4th inning. We smacked Mikolas pretty good, they brought in a lefty reliever, and Bell used 4 pinch hitters in the 4th inning!! Stephenson for Barny, Asdrubal for Schrock, Aquino for Miley, Lopez for Naquin. Ridiculous.

Cardinals best 2 or 3 relievers are righties, but the Cards manager suckered Bell into getting our left handed bats out of the game, and Bell fell for it hook line and sinker. Not smart. If Naquin is good enough to bat 2nd in your lineup, don't pinch hit for him in the 4th f-ing inning. Guess what, Lopez got more ABs than Naquin, including a feeble out in our last inning. Would have been nice having Naquin at bat in the last inning against Gallegos.
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
I'd agree Bell stuck with Miley too long. And then he absolutely panicked in the 4th inning. We smacked Mikolas pretty good, they brought in a lefty reliever, and Bell used 4 pinch hitters in the 4th inning!! Stephenson for Barny, Asdrubal for Schrock, Aquino for Miley, Lopez for Naquin. Ridiculous.

Cardinals best 2 or 3 relievers are righties, but the Cards manager suckered Bell into getting our left handed bats out of the game, and Bell fell for it hook line and sinker. Not smart. If Naquin is good enough to bat 2nd in your lineup, don't pinch hit for him in the 4th f-ing inning. Guess what, Lopez got more ABs than Naquin, including a feeble out in our last inning. Would have been nice having Naquin at bat in the last inning against Gallegos.
Bell realizes as I said a few days ago the season may be/is slipping away. The Cards are like the Steelers. A winning organization that understands what it takes to win.
On the bright side Geno hit a double but hardly a hard hit ball. Not sure what that means. We need Sonny Gray to be Sonny Gray.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
I agree with you that occasionally running puts pressure on pitchers. Biggest problem the Reds have is that the guys who could steal haven't been healthy / played much (Shogo and Senzel).

But this really comes down to the sabermetrics approach and mentality, which Bell has bought into. You do not sacrifice bunt because outs are gold, and you don't give away outs. And OBP is king in sabermetrics - being on base is gold, and getting thrown out is a cardinal sin, so very few SB attempts. As Billy Beane said in Moneyball: "I don't pay you to get thrown out at second. I pay you to get on first."

PS. "fallacy" means a misleading or incorrect idea. So I think you meant to choose another word there. It is no fallacy - the Reds clearly do not manufacture runs, I agree with your point.
Does Suarez get on base a lot?
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
Wolves seems angry today. I was hopeful the reds were more than a .500 ball club. They had a nice little 6 week run where they played good ball and things fell into place. It now seems they are heading back to what they are. We all do! I hope I’m wrong but I thought after the three straight one run losses this may be what we are. Miley has had a great season but he’s the kind of guy that gets beat up when it matters. Lance McAllister said he thought he was the guy to throw in the wild card game. Against scherzer buehler or Kershaw. Lol
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Wolves seems angry today. I was hopeful the reds were more than a .500 ball club. They had a nice little 6 week run where they played good ball and things fell into place. It now seems they are heading back to what they are. We all do! I hope I’m wrong but I thought after the three straight one run losses this may be what we are. Miley has had a great season but he’s the kind of guy that gets beat up when it matters. Lance McAllister said he thought he was the guy to throw in the wild card game. Against scherzer buehler or Kershaw. Lol
Certainly I was frustrated with Bell game 1. Sorry for caring about the team.

This team's offense is top 8 in the MLB for runs scored. With good starting pitching it should be a playoff team. That is where we are and what this team can be. The starting pitching has been the pleasant surprise this year. Miley carried the Reds early, but he clearly is back to being #4 or #5 right now.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Geno hit a long fly up 11-2. Under pressure
Certainly Moose going 0-3 with 2 Ks is not better than Suarez. Moose hits .210 with little power threat. You picked the wrong day to rag on Geno, he was 3-5 with 2 runs and an RBI. Why complain about that?

I realize people get hung up on batting average, but Geno is 3rd on Reds with 24 HR, 4th in Runs scored with 58, and 5th in RBIs with 67. Not all star numbers, but certainly among the most productive 8 on the team. If Moose keeps not producing, it is an easy decision.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
Certainly Moose going 0-3 with 2 Ks is not better than Suarez. Moose hits .210 with little power threat. You picked the wrong day to rag on Geno, he was 3-5 with 2 runs and an RBI. Why complain about that?

I realize people get hung up on batting average, but Geno is 3rd on Reds with 24 HR, 4th in Runs scored with 58, and 5th in RBIs with 67. Not all star numbers, but certainly among the most productive 8 on the team. If Moose keeps not producing, it is an easy decision.
That’s only because he keeps running him out there and he has had so many chances, even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally 🤷🏿
 

zeeman

Well-known member
No, not enough. I've said that consistently all year.

However, yesterday Moose was 0-3 with 2 Ks. Suarez was 3-5 with an RBI and 2 runs scored. Which was better?
So he has a good game once a month, the guy is pathetic and your creepy bromance with him is weird. Is it racial?
 

14Red

Well-known member
I contend that we can wring our hands all we want about Geno's stats, but he's our best option at 3rd base in September. Moustakas was brought in to play 2nd base, and he's not getting that back.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
I contend that we can wring our hands all we want about Geno's stats, but he's our best option at 3rd base in September. Moustakas was brought in to play 2nd base, and he's not getting that back.
The Reds have two major holes in their lineup with Winker out. They have less odious choices at third, like anyone but Suarez. He is like having two pitchers hitting and so are Aquino and Shogo
 

14Red

Well-known member
The Reds have two major holes in their lineup with Winker out. They have less odious choices at third, like anyone but Suarez. He is like having two pitchers hitting and so are Aquino and Shogo
And other options??? This isn't fantasy football where you just add and drop players daily. You have contractual obligations for some players. I've said this before, Geno is under contract for another 3 years, the 4th is a club option. He's due $11 mill each of the next three seasons. He's 29 years old. There is a TON of upside to Geno. He's had a bad year - from an average standpoint. We've chronicled his shortcomings on here tirelessly. But he is this...
- he's a treat to go deep at any at bat
- when hot, he can carry a team
- he's above average defensively
- and this may be most important at this time- he's great in the clubhouse.
I've not once seen him lash out at fans, teammates, the manager or anyone. He fits in well with this team.

You can pick about any game and see there are holes. Heck on Monday we had 8 holes in the lineup other than Farmer.
 

GCPRO

Well-known member
I want Geno to prosper. As stated, he's under contract for 4 years. They need that bat in the lineup. Maybe he's the guy to carry the club this month. Yet his numbers are his numbers.
The last three series at 3-6 have let two other clubs back in the discussion unfortunately.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
The Reds have two major holes in their lineup with Winker out. They have less odious choices at third, like anyone but Suarez. He is like having two pitchers hitting and so are Aquino and Shogo

So he has a good game once a month, the guy is pathetic and your creepy bromance with him is weird. Is it racial?

Our pitchers have 24 HR, 67 RBI, 58 Runs? And rank in top 4 on the team in all categories? It is not a creepy bromance, it is me being able to see past the horrendous batting average and acknowledging that Suarez has produced more runs than most guys on the team. I want the most productive guys on the field. Why can't you acknowledge that?

Your hatred of him is what's creepy.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
We also have to watch out for the Phillies thanks to the Reds poor week and a half. Phillies and Cardinals are tied.

This weekend Reds vs. Tigers, Cardinals vs. Brewers, Padres vs. Astros, Phillies vs. Marlins. Reds could use a sweep.

Oh, and the Dodgers now lead the West, so the Giants are WC #1. They play each other this weekend.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
Our pitchers have 24 HR, 67 RBI, 58 Runs? And rank in top 4 on the team in all categories? It is not a creepy bromance, it is me being able to see past the horrendous batting average and acknowledging that Suarez has produced more runs than most guys on the team. I want the most productive guys on the field. Why can't you acknowledge that?

Your hatred of him is what's creepy.
He’s a terrible player and the Reds are stuck with him, why can’t you acknowledge that? You love stats, why is he a -2.5 WAR?
 
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