Southwest District/State Predictions

So it looks like St. Francis has once again given the runner up trophy to UA by false starting in the 200 free relay. St. Francis could have had 3 swimmers in the championship heat of the 50 free if Connor Trimble did not have to have surgery. I know it is a lot of ifs and buts; however, it would have been really exciting to see how low they could have gone in the relay-probably close to 1:22.2 or so. Looking forward to exciting swims. Congrats to St. X and all of the swimmers who have reached this level.
 
With or without their 200 free relay and Connor Trimble, St. Francis wasn't going to top UA. UA will pick up at least 30 points in the 200 & 500 alone. Don't be fooled by swimmeet.com's projected score. UA will outscore that projection by 100 points. So even if the "if onlys" had happened, St. Francis would be swimming for third place.
 
With or without their 200 free relay and Connor Trimble, St. Francis wasn't going to top UA. UA will pick up at least 30 points in the 200 & 500 alone. Don't be fooled by swimmeet.com's projected score. UA will outscore that projection by 100 points. So even if the "if onlys" had happened, St. Francis would be swimming for third place.

100 points? Not a chance, I'm sure UA will swim great but there is just no way they can pick up those kinds of points.
 
Based on prelim times the top scores are:
X, 264
UA, 208
Iggy, 188
Cville, 105
St.F, 102
Hoover, 101
Mayfield, 98
Hudson, 95
Hoover, 101

Only Cville & St.F have divers of the top teams. Looks like the dogfight is for 4th
 
Title to St. X

St. X 270
UA 187.5
St. I 186

X performed as predicted and added 5, but Ignatius came through fast to close that gap for second.
 
With or without their 200 relay the best St. Francis could hope for is third. We will swim the meet to show that UA has returned to the top. Look out X the Bears have arrived!!! And this week they'll be fully rested.

Hey rjones, what happened to the Bears? Despite your claims, UA never came close to StX and barely held on to second place. In reality, like last year the Bears backed into the runner up position on the strength of a StF mistake. Now with the graduation of their senior class they will have their hands full just winning the Central District next year. In the finals X performed as predicted, Iggy was impressive and UA came back to the pack.
 
how exactly did the bears back into 2nd place, st francis was 60 plus points behind that relay had no influence on the outcome, in fact you are coming across much like rjones does, instead of giving a public school with 20 total kids on their team credit for back to back runner up finishes you attack what they accomplished, in fact along with ignatius on friday ua swam as outstanding as anyone giving themselves a little room to work with, if not for their anchors goggles falling off in the 4 free relay they would have ended up with 200 points...next year will be very close though with sc, with sc actually being a slight favorite at this point, although they haven't swam very well the last few years not going much faster at states then they did at ne classic :)
 
Congrats to X on another dominant performance, as the state of Ohio and observers nationwide have come to expect..

Interesting to see Moeller break the top 10. With the lack of talent, questionable coaching, and seemingly lazy kids, I think they really placed ahead of where most predicted they would fall.

It's interesting to note that for having so little talent, and no swimmers that would be considered very talented, Moeller made the scoreboard.

Perhaps next year if the kids but in a bit of effort, and the general incompetence in the program subsides, they may crack the scoreboard again...
 
Congrats to X on another dominant performance, as the state of Ohio and observers nationwide have come to expect..

Interesting to see Moeller break the top 10. With the lack of talent, questionable coaching, and seemingly lazy kids, I think they really placed ahead of where most predicted they would fall.

It's interesting to note that for having so little talent, and no swimmers that would be considered very talented, Moeller made the scoreboard.

Perhaps next year if the kids but in a bit of effort, and the general incompetence in the program subsides, they may crack the scoreboard again...

Moeller has a chance to be top 3 next year, don't count them out after not losing anyone.
 
You're right swimmer24 "backed in" was inappropriate. It is wrong to demean an outstanding effort by the UA swimmers. Although they did come back some in the finals from their prelim placing, their effort was outstanding and they exceeded the seed score by nearly 40 points. I guess I was surprised that Iggy made it competitive and I find it so delightful when rjones is so wrong. My apologies to the Bears. My thought about StF was not that they would have contended for second, but that having their 200 relay in the mix may have shuffled the scoring in Iggy's favor. Of course then Reardon may not have had difficulties with his goggles and StF relay line up would have differed, all factors that could have changed things. Anyway, congratulations to all. A wonderful meet with outstanding performances by many.
 
JoeMontana,
Cant tell if you are displaying some sarcasm or just dislike of Moeller. I've known Coach Bill for years, he is a great guy that cares for his swimmers.

Not sure where you are coming from saying there is a lack of talent. They dont appear to be deep however getting 3 relays to score and having 2 individuals get top 3 seems like some talent.

The Nymberg kid may have been a slight surprise getting 3rd in fly however he was seeded well after districts.

The sophmore George didnt exactly come out of nowhere. He was top 16 in the 200 and 500 as a freshman and top 5 in both this year. You may not think that is talent however there is not a coach in the state that wouldnt want that talent back for 2 more years. We'd love to have at UA to replace JLong.
 
next year will be very close though with sc, with sc actually being a slight favorite at this point, although they haven't swam very well the last few years not going much faster at states then they did at ne classic :)

I agree that SC & UA will battle for the district title next year. It may be as close as 2010. However, I think your comment about the SC taper is unfair. SC tapered for the district meet not the state meet. There, they dropped time across the board i.e. 3 seconds in the medley; 7.5 in the 400 free; 2 in the 200 free. In the individual events they dropped across the board, then for the most part held their time the next week at the state meet. Ultimately the medley even went faster. For now the days of SC unstacking their relays at the district and tapering for the state meet are gone. Unless there is some major talent coming in (and that doesn't appear the case) the team that prevails will be the team that improves the most between now and December.
 
JoeMontana,
Cant tell if you are displaying some sarcasm or just dislike of Moeller. I've known Coach Bill for years, he is a great guy that cares for his swimmers.

Not sure where you are coming from saying there is a lack of talent. They dont appear to be deep however getting 3 relays to score and having 2 individuals get top 3 seems like some talent.

The Nymberg kid may have been a slight surprise getting 3rd in fly however he was seeded well after districts.

The sophmore George didnt exactly come out of nowhere. He was top 16 in the 200 and 500 as a freshman and top 5 in both this year. You may not think that is talent however there is not a coach in the state that wouldnt want that talent back for 2 more years. We'd love to have at UA to replace JLong.

Not correct.

The talent at Moeller is lacking.

They may have the occasional surge of low times in various meets, but, the program is unable to sustain any real advancement (ie--STX).

I attribute this to many factors.

First, I don't think, quite frankly, that the kids are particularly strong swimmers.

Second, i do not believe they train as hard as they can. I believe there is some loafing, per se.

Third, I think the overall attitude could be a part of the problem.
 
JoeMontana, so your saying since Moeller is unable to sustain any real advancement that they are lacking talent? No team can sustain things like StX. When you have 80-90 guys on the team every year its much easier to do. Even UA, SC and StF will have off years. Your first point is some what valid. Looking at their roster they dont have many swimmers on the team. However they do have several swimmers with talent otherwise they would not have finished where they did. Not sure how you can say the 2nd point. Moeller does not have their own pool so the swimmers would have to train with their club teams. Unless you are going to watch practices at all the represented club teams you have no clue as to what you are talking about saying they dont train as hard as they can. Sounds to me like you have an axe to grind.
 
JoeMontana, so your saying since Moeller is unable to sustain any real advancement that they are lacking talent? No team can sustain things like StX. When you have 80-90 guys on the team every year its much easier to do. Even UA, SC and StF will have off years. Your first point is some what valid. Looking at their roster they dont have many swimmers on the team. However they do have several swimmers with talent otherwise they would not have finished where they did. Not sure how you can say the 2nd point. Moeller does not have their own pool so the swimmers would have to train with their club teams. Unless you are going to watch practices at all the represented club teams you have no clue as to what you are talking about saying they dont train as hard as they can. Sounds to me like you have an axe to grind.

Look at JM's comments from last year following the state meet.
 
Not correct.

The talent at Moeller is lacking.

They may have the occasional surge of low times in various meets, but, the program is unable to sustain any real advancement (ie--STX).

I attribute this to many factors.

First, I don't think, quite frankly, that the kids are particularly strong swimmers.

Second, i do not believe they train as hard as they can. I believe there is some loafing, per se.

Third, I think the overall attitude could be a part of the problem.


The problem is that X will not have a usual X team for next year. They do not return anyone who was in the final heat from State except for Mitchell Frey. They might lose state to UA or even Moeller.
 
KG swam a 500 time at districts that placed him 9th in the USA for 15 year olds according to usaswimming.org. His 200 free time is 7th fastest in the country according to the same source. Are there a few other kids out there that don't show up on that list who are faster... sure, but not many.

To suggest that isn't "talent" by St. X standards is asinine on any level and for you to call out the kids at Moeller for being untalented, lazy, and poorly coached is probably embarrassing for the good folks at St. X who aren't judgemental tools.
 
Next year is wide open for a change. Those seniors are finally gone at X. I am sure they have swimmers waiting in the wings, but I doubt they will be the same quality as the graduating swimmers. All schools have a chance to get a title in 2014, but X will factor heavily into the equation. St. Francis only had 4 swimmers scoring points at the state meet this year and they finished fourth. They have 3 of those swimmers back and they have 3 sophomores who need to make a big jump as their juniors did this year. They also have two other current juniors who are on the cusp of scoring at the state meet. And, they will be practicing relay starts a little more this year so look out!!!!
 
Kevin George as well as a good number of the moeller kids swim for countryside YMCA, a club team who has produced a number of state champions as well as dozens of kids to the state meet year in and year out. To say the Moeller kids don't work hard or lack coaching and discipline is obsurd and lacks logic and reason.
 
Next year is wide open for a change. Those seniors are finally gone at X. I am sure they have swimmers waiting in the wings, but I doubt they will be the same quality as the graduating swimmers. All schools have a chance to get a title in 2014, but X will factor heavily into the equation. St. Francis only had 4 swimmers scoring points at the state meet this year and they finished fourth. They have 3 of those swimmers back and they have 3 sophomores who need to make a big jump as their juniors did this year. They also have two other current juniors who are on the cusp of scoring at the state meet. And, they will be practicing relay starts a little more this year so look out!!!!

Yep, never underestimate the Knights, Bears, etc. In the past the Knights have won a bunch of relays and quite a few individual races. Many close ones, yet the Bombers find a way a win the meet and it's in the number of swims. They get a bunch of guys to come back and score. I agree it will be open next year, and it will be very exciting to watch.
 
Next year is wide open for a change. Those seniors are finally gone at X. I am sure they have swimmers waiting in the wings, but I doubt they will be the same quality as the graduating swimmers.

STX doesn't "rebuild", they "reload"

It may be an overuse cliche...but it has definitely described STX for 30+ years...

When STX is "up", there's a 99% chance they win state...when they're "down", there's an 80% chance they win state...

Good problem to have...


Also, I have heard the incoming freshman may be the best class in 10+ years, and will make some noise!!
 
STX doesn't "rebuild", they "reload"

It may be an overuse cliche...but it has definitely described STX for 30+ years...

When STX is "up", there's a 99% chance they win state...when they're "down", there's an 80% chance they win state...

Good problem to have...


Also, I have heard the incoming freshman may be the best class in 10+ years, and will make some noise!!

You're wrong.
 
You are right about the freshman class. I know about a kid from Indiana that is coming to X next year named grant house who has put up a 1:41 in his 200 free and a 46 in his 100 free, if he is able to improve he will compete with George and Cope for a state title.
 
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