D-1 Region 4

[Doublehelix]

Blame the need to put 90% of the region in the postseason. Top eight seeds have no problem winning at least a couple games so the strength of schedule math can actually math.

This is a tournament to determine who wins the state championship. You win the state championship by winning games. Prove you belong by winning games.

Western Hills is playing one D1 opponent this year. Colerain and Sycamore each are playing nine. Little Miami has a mix of D1 and D2. If the loser of the GMC matchup goes winless and Western Hills and LM also go winless, there's nothing to prove that any team is better than the others. Saying Colerain could pick up a couple wins against Woodward and Aiken, etc. is an assumption at best. And that's the fault of insisting that 16 teams in a region get in. I realize huge upsets happen and love it when they do, but that does not justify that a 16 team region is correct.

That's not to say that a computer system that evaluates SOS of teams you lost to are bad. College basketball uses the NET rankings which does this and while I have some issues with it, by nature of there being 360+ teams and 30+ regular season and conference tournament games, it produces far more sophisticated data than the Harbin system can.

16 definitely too many.

8-12 seems most appropriate (give the top 8 seeds byes and have the 9-12 seeds play each other to bleed into the Final 8 bracket). Or give the top 4 seeds byes, and let 5-12 duke it out in the first round. That's probably the best way to go.

 

[Doublehelix]

Elder loses their two best LBs, one of which is probably their best defensive players - could argue 1 and 2. Feel bad for the kids for sure, that absolutely sucks.

But what is your best defensive player doing on punt team? I know anyone can get hurt at any time, but is that risk worth it for punts?

 

[ElDuderino]

Blame the need to put 90% of the region in the postseason. Top eight seeds have no problem winning at least a couple games so the strength of schedule math can actually math.

This is a tournament to determine who wins the state championship. You win the state championship by winning games. Prove you belong by winning games.

Western Hills is playing one D1 opponent this year. Colerain and Sycamore each are playing nine. Little Miami has a mix of D1 and D2. If the loser of the GMC matchup goes winless and Western Hills and LM also go winless, there's nothing to prove that any team is better than the others. Saying Colerain could pick up a couple wins against Woodward and Aiken, etc. is an assumption at best. And that's the fault of insisting that 16 teams in a region get in. I realize huge upsets happen and love it when they do, but that does not justify that a 16 team region is correct.

That's not to say that a computer system that evaluates SOS of teams you lost to are bad. College basketball uses the NET rankings which does this and while I have some issues with it, by nature of there being 360+ teams and 30+ regular season and conference tournament games, it produces far more sophisticated data than the Harbin system can.

The need to have more than 8 teams is directly necessitated by the fact that the logic is so dumb in Harbin that it does an absolutely terrible job of assigning seeds, and has historically left out very good teams who can compete for a title.

Most notable ones readers here will recognize are Springfields 12 seed last year reaching the state final and a few years back when there were still only 8 teams a Miyan Williams Winton Woods team missing the playoffs due to tough out-of-state games they scheduled.

Let's put aside the highly debatable nature statement that the ONLY purpose of a post-season football tournament is to determine a champion and pretend that's true. (it isn't, kids play high school sports for life experiences and memories, among other things, and having full participation brackets is common in most all high school sports).

If we are trying to determine a champion, then the teams most likely to compete for a championship need to be invited to the tournament and that is absolutely not about wins and losses with no context about who they were against.

Though the problem exists more at lower divisions, there are plenty of cases where a team playing goat-herders can post a 9-1 record, but would actually be 1-9 playing a GCL schedule. Or a GMC for that matter. Quite possible for a team like West hills to come out with a (relative to their prior teams and league) above avg team and post a big record like 8-2, despite the fact that they would be 2-8 in the GMC or winless in the GCL.

Wins are not wins. Winning a meaningless game against a 500-ranked team in Ohio doesn't mean you are more likely to be a candidate for state championship or more deserving of being in the tournament than a St X team who lost 14-13 to Moeller (for example). Yet this is exactly how Harbin evaluates team.

It's time to put aside these meat-headed "winners win" arguments that use no context at all and stop punishing kids and teams that challenge themselves. This isn't the NFL where the teams are closely enough related that a win and loss means something (there is still context there, but the difference in team ability isn't nearly as drastic as it can be at the HS level). There are plenty of computer models out there that do an infinitely better job of determining this, have been for decades now.

On that topic, while the Drew50 computer still needs more data and will have things better sorted by the end of the year, here is how it ranks the teams right now, as an example:

EDIT - for the record, I would be OK with moving to 12 teams, or maybe even 8, if a modern computer evaluation were used for the purpose of seeds. Like how Drew50 would have given state-finalist Springfield a 3 seed last year instead of the 12 they got from Harbin.

 

[oxat622]

The need to have more than 8 teams is directly necessitated by the fact that the logic is so dumb in Harbin that it does an absolutely terrible job of assigning seeds, and has historically left out very good teams who can compete for a title.

Most notable ones readers here will recognize are Springfields 12 seed last year reaching the state final and a few years back when there were still only 8 teams a Miyan Williams Winton Woods team missing the playoffs due to tough out-of-state games they scheduled.

Let's put aside the highly debatable nature statement that the ONLY purpose of a post-season football tournament is to determine a champion and pretend that's true. (it isn't, kids play high school sports for life experiences and memories, among other things, and having full participation brackets is common in most all high school sports).

If we are trying to determine a champion, then the teams most likely to compete for a championship need to be invited to the tournament and that is absolutely not about wins and losses with no context about who they were against.

Though the problem exists more at lower divisions, there are plenty of cases where a team playing goat-herders can post a 9-1 record, but would actually be 1-9 playing a GCL schedule. Or a GMC for that matter. Quite possible for a team like West hills to come out with a (relative to their prior teams and league) above avg team and post a big record like 8-2, despite the fact that they would be 2-8 in the GMC or winless in the GCL.

Wins are not wins. Winning a meaningless game against a 500-ranked team in Ohio doesn't mean you are more likely to be a candidate for state championship or more deserving of being in the tournament than a St X team who lost 14-13 to Moeller (for example). Yet this is exactly how Harbin evaluates team.

It's time to put aside these meat-headed "winners win" arguments that use no context at all and stop punishing kids and teams that challenge themselves. This isn't the NFL where the teams are closely enough related that a win and loss means something (there is still context there, but the difference in team ability isn't nearly as drastic as it can be at the HS level). There are plenty of computer models out there that do an infinitely better job of determining this, have been for decades now.

On that topic, while the Drew50 computer still needs more data and will have things better sorted by the end of the year, here is how it ranks the teams right now, as an example:
View attachment 64882
EDIT - for the record, I would be OK with moving to 12 teams, or maybe even 8, if a modern computer evaluation were used for the purpose of seeds. Like how Drew50 would have given state-finalist Springfield a 3 seed last year instead of the 12 they got from Harbin.

Is this the Winton Woods team that played only nine games, for whatever reason it was?

I'm not discrediting that Springfield last year was a good team. They rallied within the system and won games. But if it were an eight team region, they would be out and someone else deserving would be the state runner up, and life would move on. To say they deserve to be in the field if it were eight teams means one of the teams who was actually in the top eight does not deserve to be there.

You can make memories playing a 10-game schedule. The tournament is structured to determine a state champion. The Harbin system is structured to qualify teams for the tournament. Yes, there are qualitative benefits to playing sports and yes it's fun to play in week 11 and beyond, but ultimately teams disqualify themselves from the championship at some point. A "worse" team that feasts on weaklings will disqualify itself in the tournament. A "better" team that can't manage enough wins against a tough schedule will disqualify itself in the regular season.

Keep in mind we're talking about potentially winless teams and not 5-5 Springfield. At some point, wins need to count above all else. The Drew50 introduces subjectiveness by putting Colerain, Sycamore, and Little Miami above Walnut Hills. It is assuming that Walnut is better than those teams even though they have not done anything to earn that assumption.

Does the Drew50 account for scores, points scored vs allowed, average differential, etc?

 

[EHS 2001]

EDIT - for the record, I would be OK with moving to 12 teams

A few years ago (before Covid) the state coaches association approved going to 12 teams per region, but the OHSAA got greedy.

 

[ElDuderino]

I'm not discrediting that Springfield last year was a good team. They rallied within the system and won games. But if it were an eight team region, they would be out and someone else deserving would be the state runner up, and life would move on. To say they deserve to be in the field if it were eight teams means one of the teams who was actually in the top eight does not deserve to be there.

Correct, if you limit it to 8 teams, this would happen. Which is one of the big reasons we shouldn’t, under the current seeding system. If we switch to a computer that actually attempts to measure team ability, then a team with more wins over far worse teams might get pushed out relative to their current Harbin placing, even though they never had a chance to do much in the playoffs anyway.

If ppl find this potentially as offensive as I find leaving a team like last year’s Springfield team out of the post-season tournament, then we need to keep with what’s currently happening where more than 8 teams qualify.

You can make memories playing a 10-game schedule. The tournament is structured to determine a state champion. The Harbin system is structured to qualify teams for the tournament. Yes, there are qualitative benefits to playing sports and yes it's fun to play in week 11 and beyond, but ultimately teams disqualify themselves from the championship at some point. A "worse" team that feasts on weaklings will disqualify itself in the tournament. A "better" team that can't manage enough wins against a tough schedule will disqualify itself in the regular season.

Ridiculous. If these points were even remotely coherent, then other sports would also operate this way. Kids deserve the opportunity for post-season play. Especially in football, kids can show massive improvement over the course of a season. A team can be different in Nov than they were in Sept, and that’s before getting into the countless other reasons a better team can potentially lose a game, from weather, to injuries, to crooked/incompetent refs, fluke kick returns, could go on and on.

Lower seeds win games in this tournament much more frequently than mathematical averages would allow for (in part because the current seeding system is bad, but still). Teams playing for the second time often have the other team winning. Losing a regular season game doesn’t disqualify you from post-season play in other sports, it shouldn’t here either. Kids deserve a chance.

Keep in mind we're talking about potentially winless teams and not 5-5 Springfield. At some point, wins need to count above all else. The Drew50 introduces subjectiveness by putting Colerain, Sycamore, and Little Miami above Walnut Hills. It is assuming that Walnut is better than those teams even though they have not done anything to earn that assumption.

Does the Drew50 account for scores, points scored vs allowed, average differential, etc?

Computers lack the ability to be subjective, so no idea what you are getting at here. Unless you are suggesting someone alters the results of the computer manually? A computer is only able to provide fact-based analysis relative to the data it’s provided.

In the specific case of Drew50, while I don’t think he’s shared the exact programming, anyone who has studied it over time understands that yes scores and differential play into it, with a diminishing effect the larger the differential gets, but the most important part of it is that weight is applied to the performance score based on the strength of the opponent, and your team can have a high performance score despite “losing” a game when they play a close game against a good opponent.

Taking the specific case you raised, Drew50 produces a result (most would call common-sense) that a win over the 500+ ranked team is meaningless when we are talking about playing teams in the top 200. Colerain lost a 16-10 game to a team it sees ranked 83, where Walnut Hills lost 30-7 to a team it sees as ranked 160. Colerain lost 20-7 to #44 LaSalle where WH had a 38-0 running clock put on by #55 Milford.

When you start putting these data points together, it’s not surprising that an analytical view would project that Colerain would beat Walnut Hills if they played, despite the fact that they are winless and Walnut Hills as “won a game”. There’s nothing subjective about that at all. Colerain could have a win on their record too if they played the 500 ranked team. But they dont. They shouldn't be punished for that fact anymore than WH should be rewarded.

The one thing I can tell you for sure is that despite the fact that it is far from perfect relative to how human beings might rank the teams, if you look at results from prior years the Drew50 computer very consistently produces much higher quality, common-sense seedings for all regions relative to the garbage that Harbin throws out there.

 

[ElDuderino]

And in an ironic update, modern computers make tons more sense than AP voters as well. This stuff is comical

 

[Joshua Niemann]

How does WW offense look? Last I saw I thought their quarterback play was below par, and they have been putting around 20 PPG up which isn't the highest (also allowed below 5 PPG), but can they really continue to B1G Ten it? I would assume the best game is week 9 versus Anderson, but that seems to be the highest power offense they will face in the regular season.

 

[oxat622]

I'm not discrediting that Springfield last year was a good team. They rallied within the system and won games. But if it were an eight team region, they would be out and someone else deserving would be the state runner up, and life would move on. To say they deserve to be in the field if it were eight teams means one of the teams who was actually in the top eight does not deserve to be there.

Correct, if you limit it to 8 teams, this would happen. Which is one of the big reasons we shouldn’t, under the current seeding system. If we switch to a computer that actually attempts to measure team ability, then a team with more wins over far worse teams might get pushed out relative to their current Harbin placing, even though they never had a chance to do much in the playoffs anyway.

If ppl find this potentially as offensive as I find leaving a team like last year’s Springfield team out of the post-season tournament, then we need to keep with what’s currently happening where more than 8 teams qualify.

You can make memories playing a 10-game schedule. The tournament is structured to determine a state champion. The Harbin system is structured to qualify teams for the tournament. Yes, there are qualitative benefits to playing sports and yes it's fun to play in week 11 and beyond, but ultimately teams disqualify themselves from the championship at some point. A "worse" team that feasts on weaklings will disqualify itself in the tournament. A "better" team that can't manage enough wins against a tough schedule will disqualify itself in the regular season.

Ridiculous. If these points were even remotely coherent, then other sports would also operate this way. Kids deserve the opportunity for post-season play. Especially in football, kids can show massive improvement over the course of a season. A team can be different in Nov than they were in Sept, and that’s before getting into the countless other reasons a better team can potentially lose a game, from weather, to injuries, to crooked/incompetent refs, fluke kick returns, could go on and on.

Lower seeds win games in this tournament much more frequently than mathematical averages would allow for (in part because the current seeding system is bad, but still). Teams playing for the second time often have the other team winning. Losing a regular season game doesn’t disqualify you from post-season play in other sports, it shouldn’t here either. Kids deserve a chance.

Keep in mind we're talking about potentially winless teams and not 5-5 Springfield. At some point, wins need to count above all else. The Drew50 introduces subjectiveness by putting Colerain, Sycamore, and Little Miami above Walnut Hills. It is assuming that Walnut is better than those teams even though they have not done anything to earn that assumption.

Does the Drew50 account for scores, points scored vs allowed, average differential, etc?

Computers lack the ability to be subjective, so no idea what you are getting at here. Unless you are suggesting someone alters the results of the computer manually? A computer is only able to provide fact-based analysis relative to the data it’s provided.

In the specific case of Drew50, while I don’t think he’s shared the exact programming, anyone who has studied it over time understands that yes scores and differential play into it, with a diminishing effect the larger the differential gets, but the most important part of it is that weight is applied to the performance score based on the strength of the opponent, and your team can have a high performance score despite “losing” a game when they play a close game against a good opponent.

Taking the specific case you raised, Drew50 produces a result (most would call common-sense) that a win over the 500+ ranked team is meaningless when we are talking about playing teams in the top 200. Colerain lost a 16-10 game to a team it sees ranked 83, where Walnut Hills lost 30-7 to a team it sees as ranked 160. Colerain lost 20-7 to #44 LaSalle where WH had a 38-0 running clock put on by #55 Milford.

When you start putting these data points together, it’s not surprising that an analytical view would project that Colerain would beat Walnut Hills if they played, despite the fact that they are winless and Walnut Hills as “won a game”. There’s nothing subjective about that at all. Colerain could have a win on their record too if they played the 500 ranked team. But they dont. They shouldn't be punished for that fact anymore than WH should be rewarded.

The one thing I can tell you for sure is that despite the fact that it is far from perfect relative to how human beings might rank the teams, if you look at results from prior years the Drew50 computer very consistently produces much higher quality, common-sense seedings for all regions relative to the garbage that Harbin throws out there.

The subjectivity is in ranking a 0-win team over another 0-win team, or a 0-win team over a 1-win team. It's implying that one is better than the other, or more deserving than the other, but that's an assumption. And introducing scoring margins cannot account for a team's style of play, pace of play, at what point was running clock implemented, or whether a team decided to "call off the dogs".

I've come around to expanding the playoffs so long as the teams who get in have actually won a game. Cry me a river if winless Colerain gets left out because Western Hills pulled out a win against Woodward. The solution would be to either let everyone in, which would be congruent with all other sports, or reduce the number of teams who qualify. But a system that lends itself to the possibility of a blind draw where one winless team gets in over another? No, I can't get behind that at all.

Going back to the Springfield example, you know, I'm sure there have been teams that did not make the playoffs in the eight team model who had it in them to rally and go on a deep run. But every year, someone has to go to the state finals, and that someone will have won a string of single elimination playoff games. I don't care who you are, you do that, you have earned your place.

And now that we've added a division 7, it's not a herculean effort to qualify for an eight team region. When I was in high school, R4 had 31 teams. Freaking Hughes Center was in the region. Now there are only 18.

 

[JBaller]

The subjectivity is in ranking a 0-win team over another 0-win team, or a 0-win team over a 1-win team. It's implying that one is better than the other, or more deserving than the other, but that's an assumption. And introducing scoring margins cannot account for a team's style of play, pace of play, at what point was running clock implemented, or whether a team decided to "call off the dogs".

I've come around to expanding the playoffs so long as the teams who get in have actually won a game. Cry me a river if winless Colerain gets left out because Western Hills pulled out a win against Woodward. The solution would be to either let everyone in, which would be congruent with all other sports, or reduce the number of teams who qualify. But a system that lends itself to the possibility of a blind draw where one winless team gets in over another? No, I can't get behind that at all.

Going back to the Springfield example, you know, I'm sure there have been teams that did not make the playoffs in the eight team model who had it in them to rally and go on a deep run. But every year, someone has to go to the state finals, and that someone will have won a string of single elimination playoff games. I don't care who you are, you do that, you have earned your place.

And now that we've added a division 7, it's not a herculean effort to qualify for an eight team region. When I was in high school, R4 had 31 teams. Freaking Hughes Center was in the region. Now there are only 18.

They will almost assuredly put a running clock on Sycamore for a win.

 

[JBaller]

The need to have more than 8 teams is directly necessitated by the fact that the logic is so dumb in Harbin that it does an absolutely terrible job of assigning seeds, and has historically left out very good teams who can compete for a title.

Most notable ones readers here will recognize are Springfields 12 seed last year reaching the state final and a few years back when there were still only 8 teams a Miyan Williams Winton Woods team missing the playoffs due to tough out-of-state games they scheduled.

Let's put aside the highly debatable nature statement that the ONLY purpose of a post-season football tournament is to determine a champion and pretend that's true. (it isn't, kids play high school sports for life experiences and memories, among other things, and having full participation brackets is common in most all high school sports).

If we are trying to determine a champion, then the teams most likely to compete for a championship need to be invited to the tournament and that is absolutely not about wins and losses with no context about who they were against.

Though the problem exists more at lower divisions, there are plenty of cases where a team playing goat-herders can post a 9-1 record, but would actually be 1-9 playing a GCL schedule. Or a GMC for that matter. Quite possible for a team like West hills to come out with a (relative to their prior teams and league) above avg team and post a big record like 8-2, despite the fact that they would be 2-8 in the GMC or winless in the GCL.

Wins are not wins. Winning a meaningless game against a 500-ranked team in Ohio doesn't mean you are more likely to be a candidate for state championship or more deserving of being in the tournament than a St X team who lost 14-13 to Moeller (for example). Yet this is exactly how Harbin evaluates team.

It's time to put aside these meat-headed "winners win" arguments that use no context at all and stop punishing kids and teams that challenge themselves. This isn't the NFL where the teams are closely enough related that a win and loss means something (there is still context there, but the difference in team ability isn't nearly as drastic as it can be at the HS level). There are plenty of computer models out there that do an infinitely better job of determining this, have been for decades now.

On that topic, while the Drew50 computer still needs more data and will have things better sorted by the end of the year, here is how it ranks the teams right now, as an example:
View attachment 64882
EDIT - for the record, I would be OK with moving to 12 teams, or maybe even 8, if a modern computer evaluation were used for the purpose of seeds. Like how Drew50 would have given state-finalist Springfield a 3 seed last year instead of the 12 they got from Harbin.

Interesting question here: if Sycamore, Little Miami, and Western Hills all finish winless (it's actually very possible!), who is going to the playoffs? All would have 0.0 Harbins, so they couldn't even go to the Level 3 tiebreaker. From what I can tell, these are the tiebreakers:

1) 3rd level points (out of state opponents do NOT have additional levels): All would have 0
2) Head to head competition (it the teams played during the regular season
- then the team that won that game gets the bracket slot.: Nope
3) Team with the most regular season victories: All would have 0
4) Highest combined wins of team's opponents. This is where I think we could get separation. Little Miami would be above Sycamore because the ECC had a better Week 1 than the GMC. Western Hills' number could vary significantly.
5) Highest win percentile. Nope
6) Blind draw. God help us if we get to this.


Personally, I would be in favor of the #1 seed just getting a bye in the 1st round rather than see a game between them and one of these three teams.

 

[oxat622]

Interesting question here: if Sycamore, Little Miami, and Western Hills all finish winless (it's actually very possible!), who is going to the playoffs? All would have 0.0 Harbins, so they couldn't even go to the Level 3 tiebreaker. From what I can tell, these are the tiebreakers:

1) 3rd level points (out of state opponents do NOT have additional levels): All would have 0
2) Head to head competition (it the teams played during the regular season
- then the team that won that game gets the bracket slot.: Nope
3) Team with the most regular season victories: All would have 0
4) Highest combined wins of team's opponents. This is where I think we could get separation. Little Miami would be above Sycamore because the ECC had a better Week 1 than the GMC. Western Hills' number could vary significantly.
5) Highest win percentile. Nope
6) Blind draw. God help us if we get to this.


Personally, I would be in favor of the #1 seed just getting a bye in the 1st round rather than see a game between them and one of these three teams.

The scenario officially routes to a blind draw.

Little Miami, take care of business tonight pls.

 

[JBaller]

The scenario officially routes to a blind draw.

Little Miami, take care of business tonight pls.

Little Miami did it! That probably secures their playoff spot.

 

[RoyDonk]

LM punches their 1-9 ticket to the playoffs with a 20-14 win over Walnut. Division 1 is the only division with this issue since every region has 17-18 teams, compared to the rest of the divisions where the regions have 25-28 teams.

 

[ElDuderino]

Some interesting games tonight!

 

[ElderHSfan02]

Some interesting games tonight!

Only interesting game was Lakota East almost knocking off Princeton.

Former State power Colerain loses a 15th straight regular season game and 16th straight game overall.

 

[mrorcadood]

Pasteur now projects both Colerain and Sycamore to miss the playoffs, with a 1-9 Western Hills sliding in as the 16 seed.

 

[ElDuderino]

Pasteur now projects both Colerain and Sycamore to miss the playoffs, with a 1-9 Western Hills sliding in as the 16 seed.

This is because it projects WH beating beating woodward in week 9 (who is ranked 646 in the computer) and Woodward actually has a game they are projected to win against North College Hill (ranked 670 in the computer). If Woodward wins that game, it gives WH the fractional point it needs to move ahead of Colerain (assuming they win no other games and Sycamore goes winless). In that scenario, WH has 1.0 Harbin point and Colerain has 0.65. If Woodward does not win the NCH game, then the best WH can do is 0.55 pts.

EDIT and a WH win gives Walnut 1.2 pts, keeping them ahead too.

 

[Doublehelix]

@Omar @1965 Panther and @PURPLE REIGN are going to freak out when they do their research on Riverdale Baptist, Elder's week 8 opponent.

RB has 15+ D1 transfers in, with several high level D1 players (Bama, ND, Maryland, Mich St, Oregon). They've destroyed their first two opponents and are getting comparisons to Good Counsel and St Frances. Apparently a neighboring program folded (Rock Creek Christian) and most of the players transferred to RB. Should be interesting...

Omar is going to lose it.

He's already whining about St Eds and that's still a week away.

Not only was Riverdale Baptist compared to Good Counsel, they just BEAT Good Counsel 28-18. This game is going to be extremely difficult for Elder.

I wonder if Elder will feed them a meal.

 

[Rush Limbaugh]

Not only was Riverdale Baptist compared to Good Counsel, they just BEAT Good Counsel 28-18. This game is going to be extremely difficult for Elder.

I wonder if Elder will feed them a meal.

Keep grinding that ax against Elder, clown

 

[Doublehelix]

Keep grinding that ax against Elder, clown

Again, it's a D1R4 thread. It seems you're the one that can't seem to let it go for some reason. It's funny watching you squirm when I post a realistic Elder post. You cannot help yourself but to respond because of the never-ending inferiority complex and it's hilarious.

It's one of the more interesting non-conference games yet to be played, especially as RB looks to be a national powerhouse.

I can't help that your homer 8-2 prediction won't hold up. E might only have 2 more wins with what they have left, and those will be tough as well.

Riverdale Baptist is absolutely LOADED. I know all of you Elder guys shun your noses and point the cheating finger at teams with talent. I can't believe they even let them through the gates. Thankfully, the players and coaches actually like competing. They leave the crying to the daddy ballers.

@Omar is going to steal all of the sandwiches!!!

 

[Rush Limbaugh]

Again, it's a D1R4 thread. It seems you're the one that can't seem to let it go for some reason. It's funny watching you squirm when I post a realistic Elder post. You cannot help yourself but to respond because of the never-ending inferiority complex and it's hilarious.

It's one of the more interesting non-conference games yet to be played, especially as RB looks to be a national powerhouse.

I can't help that your homer 8-2 prediction won't hold up. E might only have 2 more wins with what they have left, and those will be tough as well.

Riverdale Baptist is absolutely LOADED. I know all of you Elder guys shun your noses and point the cheating finger at teams with talent. I can't believe they even let them through the gates. Thankfully, the players and coaches actually like competing. @Omar is going to steal all of the sandwiches!!!

Again you edited your post due to typos because you type so angry with your little hands.

I never made a prediction, so you’re 100% wrong on that.

You were also the first to post (within minutes of it being on the Elder board) about starters being injured. You couldn’t wait.

You’re a joke and no one takes you seriously.

 

[Doublehelix]

Again you edited your post due to typos because you type so angry with your little hands.

I never made a prediction, so you’re 100% wrong on that.

You were also the first to post (within minutes of it being on the Elder board) about starters being injured. You couldn’t wait.

You’re a joke and no one takes you seriously.

You really think I care if people take me seriously lol??? It's a daily diversion to talk about kids football, let's keep that in perspective.

As much as you think I'm "serious", I realize what this all is. It makes me laugh daily, and has zero impact on my life. I love high school sports because the kids and coaches make it awesome. The adult homers are the worst.

At the same time, if people continue to tell lies about reality, I'm going to call them out. I love to watch people squirm when they're exposed. You are prime example #1, because your ego of inferiority won't allow you to just ignore it, because I hit the core of that inferiority with every new post.

I pick on Elder homers (not players, not coaches) because I know how to push the buttons, and you fall for it every time

At least @Omar tells the truth.

 

[Rush Limbaugh]

Nice try, you’re still sour that your nephew was cut from the Elder scout team and it shows.

 

[Doublehelix]

Nice try, you’re still sour that your nephew was cut from the Elder scout team and it shows.

Yeah, and he moved on and played in college.

Johnny Legacy and his son's preferred spot took opportunity away from better players. But that's the way they like it there, they'd rather appease the "legends" than take what's theirs. They give up alot of success doing it this way, but if that's what makes them happy, then that's what makes them happy. The Elder diehards should really stop whining about what everyone else is doing if this is how they choose to operate.

They could be St Eds south with their excellent coaches and access to urban talent. But that's too much for a narrow-minded culture to wrap their heads around. Those spots are reserved for those westside dreamers.

Remember the name Emmett Queen in the next couple years.

 

[Rush Limbaugh]

Yeah, and he moved on and played in college.

Johnny Legacy and his son's preferred spot took opportunity away from better players. But that's the way they like it there, they'd rather appease the "legends" than take what's theirs. They give up alot of success doing it this way, but if that's what makes them happy, then that's what makes them happy. The Elder diehards should really stop whining about what everyone else is doing if this is how they choose to operate.

They could be St Eds south with their excellent coaches and access to urban talent. But that's too much for a narrow-minded culture to wrap their heads around. Those spots are reserved for those westside dreamers.

Remember the name Emmett Queen in the next couple years.

Too bad you can’t move on… good for your nephew!

 

[ElDuderino]

Ah yes, Mr. "Elder is closer to Oak Hills than they are Moeller" is still making some of the most feeble troll attempts ever seen. Very strange dude.

The subjectivity is in ranking a 0-win team over another 0-win team, or a 0-win team over a 1-win team. It's implying that one is better than the other, or more deserving than the other, but that's an assumption. And introducing scoring margins cannot account for a team's style of play, pace of play, at what point was running clock implemented, or whether a team decided to "call off the dogs".

I've come around to expanding the playoffs so long as the teams who get in have actually won a game. Cry me a river if winless Colerain gets left out because Western Hills pulled out a win against Woodward. The solution would be to either let everyone in, which would be congruent with all other sports, or reduce the number of teams who qualify. But a system that lends itself to the possibility of a blind draw where one winless team gets in over another? No, I can't get behind that at all.

Going back to the Springfield example, you know, I'm sure there have been teams that did not make the playoffs in the eight team model who had it in them to rally and go on a deep run. But every year, someone has to go to the state finals, and that someone will have won a string of single elimination playoff games. I don't care who you are, you do that, you have earned your place.

And now that we've added a division 7, it's not a herculean effort to qualify for an eight team region. When I was in high school, R4 had 31 teams. Freaking Hughes Center was in the region. Now there are only 18.

I think you still don't understand how computer models work. There's nothing subjective about them, you are applying your own subjectivity in reading the results instead of understanding that they are 100% the result of logic (assuming we are talking about a computer model that accepts data and spits out a result, and the results are not manually manipulated afterwards) that the model is programmed to do.

Taking an extreme example, a winless team who lost game to the 100th ranked team by a TD will have a better result in the Drew 50 model than a winless team who played no one in the top 300 and not been closer than 20 points in any game. The computer will tell you the first team is better, as would any person who studies football at any level, and only a simpleton would say "you can't tell who is better because neither team won a game" and only look at their records.

You absolutely can program for scoring margins and apply different weights, for instance the gain of beating someone by 28 instead of 14 is much greater than the gain of beating someone by 42 instead of 28. And similarly, those score differences can have different weights based on whether or not your opponent was similar in the rankings going in, or badly overmatched. The model can be programmed to apply less weight to larger score margins.

And yes, no model is perfect, nor can they do things like SP+ does in college and actually analyze drive and play success data, since it is not universally reported. There are going to be flaws going off nothing but score and relative strength of opponent (which is constantly adjusted thru the year as each team wins or loses). But again, if you have spent any time with data from Drew50 over the period of several years, it simply can't be argued that what it does is a significant, and much needed improvement to common sense team ranking at the end of the season.

And yes, the teams that make the finals earn their place. Until seedings are improved, teams like a Springfield deserve a chance to go on that run, regardless of their regular season records. Teams and ADs shouldn't have to play games with their scheduling in order to make the playoffs, and teams that want to challenge themselves shouldn't be punished.

 

[Doublehelix]

Ah yes, Mr. "Elder is closer to Oak Hills than they are Moeller" is still making some of the most feeble troll attempts ever seen. Very strange dude.

Says the guy who puts Mason in with the real football programs...

Not alot of self awareness here. It's unbelievable actually.

And yes, Elder's talent is closer to OH than Moeller. It's their coaching, execution and hard-nosed and never say die players that keep them relevant with the top schools. The talent difference isn't that much different from Elder and OH - they literally all come from the same neighborhoods. They're literally the same type of kid. Elder just has better everything else.

Ask anyone else, they'll tell you the same thing.

 

[NEOfan]

You really think I care if people take me seriously lol??? It's a daily diversion to talk about kids football, let's keep that in perspective.

As much as you think I'm "serious", I realize what this all is. It makes me laugh daily, and has zero impact on my life. I love high school sports because the kids and coaches make it awesome. The adult homers are the worst.

At the same time, if people continue to tell lies about reality, I'm going to call them out. I love to watch people squirm when they're exposed. You are prime example #1, because your ego of inferiority won't allow you to just ignore it, because I hit the core of that inferiority with every new post.

I pick on Elder homers (not players, not coaches) because I know how to push the buttons, and you fall for it every time

At least @Omar tells the truth.

Normal daily diversions are playing video games, golfing, going to the bar for a drink, going on walks with your significant other, etc.....what you do on here is not normal for any adult lmao

 

[ElDuderino]

Says the guy who puts Mason in with the real football programs...

Not alot of self awareness here. It's unbelievable actually.

And yes, Elder's talent is closer to OH than Moeller. It's their coaching, execution and hard-nosed and never say die players that keep them relevant with the top schools. The talent difference isn't that much different from Elder and OH - they literally all come from the same neighborhoods. They're literally the same type of kid. Elder just has better everything else.

Ask anyone else, they'll tell you the same thing.

Relative to Oak Hills, Mason has a much better football program, capable of doing things that other teams respect, like beating a 1 seed and reaching the 3rd week of the playoffs. I've already acknowledged they are having a down year for them, that didn't stop them from beating Oak Hills by multiple scores. People respect Mason's football program, even if they aren't regional final contenders.

Ask anyone else, they'll tell you the same thing.

We all understand the mental gymnastics and revisionist history you are going thru to continue your ridiculous lines of discussion about Elder, which include outright lies about what you previously posted mixed with some laughably ignorant opinions. Literally no one has entered this thread to tell us the same thing, and in fact, several other people have said the opposite and told you what an incredibly weak and tired troll attempt this is.