Best team likely not going to make the playoffs?

Yappi

Yappi

Go Buckeyes
I know that with 16 teams per region making the playoffs, a strong team is not going to be left out of the playoffs anymore. Who is the best team that is likely not going to make the playoffs.
 
 
Spread All Day said:
Youngstown Chaney. Pretty solid team. Loaded Region 9. Won’t make it.
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Also in region 9, if Dover loses to New Philadelphia which is very possible, they will miss the playoffs and Dover is better than Chaney.
In D-I Lakota East and Colerain
In D-II Big Walnut and Mayfield
In D-III ND-CL, West Geauga, Tallmadge, Marlington, Bedford, in addition to the afore mentioned Dover and Chaney. Padua Franciscan is 50/50.
In D-IV Bishop Fenwick, Carrollton, Kenton, Fairfield Union, and with a 33% chance Holy Name and Hubbard
In D-V Ottawa-Glandorf, Port Clinton, Coshocton
In D-VI Newark Catholic, Evergreen, Waynedale, and Paulding with a 25% chance
In D-VII St. John's, Fort Recovery, Mohawk, Ada and Gibsonburg with a 25% chance
 
Carrolton not making it in D4 is rough. The Warriors, after a 1-3 start in non-conference play, are going to finish 5-1 in league play with upset wins over both Alliance and Marlington, who are both in D3 and who both have a better chance of making it to week 11 than Carrolton does. Right now, Carrolton has just an 18% chance to make it, and the Week 10 win over Minerva isn't going to do anything for them.
 
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Bull GreenDog said:
Carrolton not making it in D4 is rough. The Warriors, after a 1-3 start in non-conference play, are going to finish 5-1 in league play with upset wins over both Alliance and Marlington, who are both in D3 and who both have a better chance of making it to week 11 than Carrolton does. Right now, Carrolton has just an 18% chance to make it, and the Week 10 win over Minerva isn't going to do anything for them.
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Time to start weighting the wins higher as the season goes on? 😜
 
Kigiin said:
A good team missing the playoffs is mutually exclusive of 16 teams per region making the playoffs.
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I strongly disagree, there are always more than 16 good teams in region 9. But for most other regions this is the case.
 
simkon said:
I strongly disagree, there are always more than 16 good teams in region 9. But for most other regions this is the case.
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Exactly. Region 9 will likely end up with 17 teams with winning records (if Alliance and Dover beat Marlington and Phila this week). Pretty crazy.
 
I want to add one more thing about Region 9. Looking at Fantastic 50, Region 9 has 8 teams in the top 100, and 14 in the top 200. Not only is this more than the other D3 regions:
- Region 9: 8 top 100, 14 top 200
- Region 10: 3 top 100, 10 top 200
- Region 11: 3 top 100, 8 top 200
- Region 12: 3 top 100, 9 top 200
It’s more than the D2 regions also:
- Region 5: 6 top 100, 13 top 200
- Region 6: 4 top 100, 10 top 200
- Region 7: 4 top 100, 9 top 200
- Region 8: 6 top 100, 10 top 200

Also more than all other smaller (D4-D7) regions, and actually more than D1 region 3. Only regions 1, 2, and 4 have more “good” teams, and they’re similar to region 9’s numbers. So definitely a decent team or two from region 9 will be left out.
 
simkon said:
Also in region 9, if Dover loses to New Philadelphia which is very possible, they will miss the playoffs and Dover is better than Chaney.
In D-I Lakota East and Colerain
In D-II Big Walnut and Mayfield
In D-III ND-CL, West Geauga, Tallmadge, Marlington, Bedford, in addition to the afore mentioned Dover and Chaney. Padua Franciscan is 50/50.
In D-IV Bishop Fenwick, Carrollton, Kenton, Fairfield Union, and with a 33% chance Holy Name and Hubbard
In D-V Ottawa-Glandorf, Port Clinton, Coshocton
In D-VI Newark Catholic, Evergreen, Waynedale, and Paulding with a 25% chance
In D-VII St. John's, Fort Recovery, Mohawk, Ada and Gibsonburg with a 25% chance
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Ottawa-Glandorf needed a miracle to finish their season at 1-9. That is in no way a "good" team that should be mentioned here
 
BirdDog10 said:
Ottawa-Glandorf needed a miracle to finish their season at 1-9. That is in no way a "good" team that should be mentioned here
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They don't have a very good record, I just listed the best teams irrespective of records that would miss the playoffs in each division.
 
I think this is where you need to start weighing the losses against the wins to see who is really winning games they should win and losing against good competition and who is just losing and winning against bad teams almost at random. Because there's a big difference in ability in those two groups.
 
Sykotyk said:
I think this is where you need to start weighing the losses against the wins to see who is really winning games they should win and losing against good competition and who is just losing and winning against bad teams almost at random. Because there's a big difference in ability in those two groups.
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Very easy tweak to the Harbin System could mostly resolve that.
 
I think it would help if schools had to play at least one if not all of their OOC games within their Region. In fact, I'm wondering if we'd see better competition if conferences were abandoned and schools were forced to play at least 7-8 games within their Region instead. That'd certainly help sort of the top 8. Until then, I think allowing 16 per Region is the best way to offset "weak conference" bias.

Of course, the challenge there is that schedules are made in advance of division move ups and downs.
 
simkon said:
I strongly disagree, there are always more than 16 good teams in region 9. But for most other regions this is the case.
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On one hand, seeds below #8 rarely win their Region even in notoriously strong Region like 9. That gives credence to the view of just taking 8 using the current Harbin system. At the same time, we do see a lot of "upsets" from #9 - #12 over #8 - #5, so we also know Harbins aren't perfect at picking the best 8. Some say that doesn't matter since #9 - #16 rarely go very far.

As long as we have conferences, I like playoff expansions since some conferences are better than others, and Harbins don't really sort this out.
 
raising4daughters said:
I think it would help if schools had to play at least one if not all of their OOC games within their Region. In fact, I'm wondering if we'd see better competition if conferences were abandoned and schools were forced to play at least 7-8 games within their Region instead. That'd certainly help sort of the top 8.
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That’s how Texas does it. More regions with fewer in the region. Most regions have 8 to 10 teams each region, top 4 make playoffs every region. Play every team in region each year.
 
scbuckeye99 said:
If Chaney were in any other region in the state they'd be an 11 or 12 seed come playoffs. Heck, there's a D1 region where they'd be a 10 seed.
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I need someone to explain why Chaney is getting all of this love. Looking at their resume, I personally don't see anything that pops out to me, or screams "this team needs to make the playoffs". I am not trying to troll Chaney whatsoever.
 
Benchboss1 said:
I need someone to explain why Chaney is getting all of this love. Looking at their resume, I personally don't see anything that pops out to me, or screams "this team needs to make the playoffs". I am not trying to troll Chaney whatsoever.
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I don't think they're saying the deserve to get in or they're having a great year. Chaney is just a solid football team and would be in the playoffs if they weren't in region 9.
 
Benchboss1 said:
I need someone to explain why Chaney is getting all of this love. Looking at their resume, I personally don't see anything that pops out to me, or screams "this team needs to make the playoffs". I am not trying to troll Chaney whatsoever.
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Just saying Chaney and Dover are likely the two best teams that will or may miss the playoffs and both teams would make the playoffs in every other region.
 
Benchboss1 said:
I need someone to explain why Chaney is getting all of this love. Looking at their resume, I personally don't see anything that pops out to me, or screams "this team needs to make the playoffs". I am not trying to troll Chaney whatsoever.
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No eye test here for me. Just looking at their Harbins indicates they'd have a much better shot in any other region but the one they're in.

To be honest with ya though there are 4-5 teams in region 9 that would be better off playoff chance wise in a different region.
 
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