Best team likely not going to make the playoffs?

pjm said:
If a team cannot find a way to be in the top 16 in their region, then they do not deserve a spot in the playoffs. I do not care what their record is.
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You need to look at region 9 ever since they went to 7 divisions and (4 regions for D-I) or the corresponding region(s) for NEO for mid-size schools such as region 5 & 7 if you go back in time a bit.
 
scbuckeye99 said:
I think it's more to do with the geography than the record. I agree though, if 5 wins can't get ya in these days then ya probably should schedule some stiffer competition.
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Many times a team will beat another team that is very good but has a very difficult schedule and as such does not win as many games but the Harbin system does not account for the strength of opponents very well especially in this scenario.
 
simkon said:
Many times a team will beat another team that is very good but has a very difficult schedule and as such does not win as many games but the Harbin system does not account for the strength of opponents very well especially in this scenario.
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I agree, just don't think this fits Chaney, at least not this season. Their wins are unimpressive to me. Marlington is their best win, and that isn't impressive.
 
Benchboss1 said:
I agree, just don't think this fits Chaney, at least not this season. Their wins are unimpressive to me. Marlington is their best win, and that isn't impressive.
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Chaney lost to the East Orientals by 1 point, who are 8-1, they beat Mooney who is probably in the 15-20 range for D-IV teams, to expect them to be beat teams like Ursuline would make them one of the top 10 teams in the whole state. Chaney is better than at least half the playoff teams in the other 3 regions in D-III.
 
After acknowledging that record is not the end-all-be-all of what makes a "good team"...

Region 26 has a log jam of 5 teams currently at 6-3, but only 4 spots available according to Joe Eitel. If they all win, Montpelier is out with a 7-3 record.
Similarly, in Region 19, Piketon is currently 6-3. They are ranked 19th in that region and will need help to get in on Friday.

That said, both Piketon and Montpelier have not beaten a team with a winning record this year.
 
Spencer said:
None this crap is watered down enough. If you still aren't making the playoffs you are a BAD team,period!
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Either that or your season schedule is playing up a few Divisions and they are playoff teams. I've seen that before. A DVII team that is in a conference of DV or DIV and it's tough to get wins.
 
LELL said:
Either that or your season schedule is playing up a few Divisions and they are playoff teams. I've seen that before. A DVII team that is in a conference of DV or DIV and it's tough to get wins.
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Or how about in years past Ursuline or Mooney in D-IV or D-V playing all the big D-I state powers...
It doesn't even have to be due to a conference/league affilation.
 
According to Drew Pasteur Big Walnut is the #6 team in D2 R7 and they are going to miss the playoffs unless they pull an improbable upset of Canal in week 10. Not saying they are great or anything but they had a number of games against decent teams this year that were tossups and they came up short in all of them.
 
Chip Whitley said:
According to Drew Pasteur Big Walnut is the #6 team in D2 R7 and they are going to miss the playoffs unless they pull an improbable upset of Canal in week 10. Not saying they are great or anything but they had a number of games against decent teams this year that were tossups and they came up short in all of them.
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Yes I listed them way back in my first or second post on this thread.
 
Chip Whitley said:
According to Drew Pasteur Big Walnut is the #6 team in D2 R7 and they are going to miss the playoffs unless they pull an improbable upset of Canal in week 10. Not saying they are great or anything but they had a number of games against decent teams this year that were tossups and they came up short in all of them.
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Which is why they aren’t going to be a playoff team
 
LICKING COUNTY FAN said:
16 teams from each region make it so IMO there is no best team not to make it.
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You can't generalize like that, there are a few exceptions, have you looked at region 9 the past 10 years or so? It is always stacked and the cutoff to get in is almost always higher for region 9 compared to every other region. Teams that miss the playoffs in region 9 would get a home game in some other regions (#8 seed).
 
Some of the teams in region 12 that made the play-offs are just awful. Goshen, New Richmond, and Western Brown are just a few. This is just a money grab for the OHSAA. Talk about the safety and well-being of student/athletes is totally hypocrisy.
 
Chip Whitley said:
According to Drew Pasteur Big Walnut is the #6 team in D2 R7 and they are going to miss the playoffs unless they pull an improbable upset of Canal in week 10. Not saying they are great or anything but they had a number of games against decent teams this year that were tossups and they came up short in all of them.
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Big Walnut not making the playoffs is crazy. They have big time talent. Generational talent and not going to be playing a week 11. Ouch.
 
Brave_Victor said:
Big Walnut not making the playoffs is crazy. They have big time talent. Generational talent and not going to be playing a week 11. Ouch.
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Generational talent? Not to be a jerk or anything, but wouldn't generational talent be able to win more than 4 games? They have beaten three teams that have 2 wins and one team that is winless. Seems to me that they have no one to blame but themselves if they do not make it in.
 
Brave_Victor said:
Big Walnut not making the playoffs is crazy. They have big time talent. Generational talent and not going to be playing a week 11. Ouch.
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Benchboss1 said:
Generational talent? Not to be a jerk or anything, but wouldn't generational talent be able to win more than 4 games? They have beaten three teams that have 2 wins and one team that is winless. Seems to me that they have no one to blame but themselves if they do not make it in.
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Yes, what I am saying is, total mess in Sunbury. Went from a very good team/program to not even making the field of 16 with some of the best talent the school has had. So, talent is important, but culture, execution, and putting everything together is much more important.
 
Chip Whitley said:
According to Drew Pasteur Big Walnut is the #6 team in D2 R7 and they are going to miss the playoffs unless they pull an improbable upset of Canal in week 10. Not saying they are great or anything but they had a number of games against decent teams this year that were tossups and they came up short in all of them.
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They lost the first game to BH (DIV), really put them behind the 8 ball. As well as losing to Westerville South.
 
Best, not perfect solution is play 8 teams in your own region, like a previous post suggested. Or do away with the regions, and just go with top 32 in points per division. OHSAA obviously doesn’t give a crap travel distances.
 
Agree with the points above. If your team doesn't make the playoffs with 16 per region, you weren't very good and weren't going to win a playoff game. I say that as a guy cheering for a team on the bubble this year. In or out, doesn't matter, they lost 2-3 winnable games against teams they compete with. That shows they are just an ordinary team.
 
raising4daughters said:
Agree with the points above. If your team doesn't make the playoffs with 16 per region, you weren't very good and weren't going to win a playoff game. I say that as a guy cheering for a team on the bubble this year. In or out, doesn't matter, they lost 2-3 winnable games against teams they compete with. That shows they are just an ordinary team.
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Last year, Cradinal Mooney was a #14 or #15 seed and nearly missed the playoffs altogether while playing the most difficult schedule in D-V besides South Range. The only team in D-V that could defeat and that actually defeated Mooney was South Range, Mooney went on to slaughter their opponent in the 1st round and played South Range the closest of everyone in D-V all year and was likely the 2nd or 3rd best team in all of D-V despite the losing record. A few years back SV-SM was the #15 or #16 seed and barely made the playoffs, and was beating their 1st round opponent and only barely lost in the last minute of the game by 2 or 3 points and was likely one of the top 10 teams in D-III that year.
 
simkon said:
Last year, Cradinal Mooney was a #14 or #15 seed and nearly missed the playoffs altogether while playing the most difficult schedule in D-V besides South Range. The only team in D-V that could defeat and that actually defeated Mooney was South Range, Mooney went on to slaughter their opponent in the 1st round and played South Range the closest of everyone in D-V all year and was likely the 2nd or 3rd best team in all of D-V despite the losing record. A few years back SV-SM was the #15 or #16 seed and barely made the playoffs, and was beating their 1st round opponent and only barely lost in the last minute of the game by 2 or 3 points and was likely one of the top 10 teams in D-III that year.
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I understand. This year, according to Drew Pasteur, Padua has the #6 most difficult schedule in D3. They're 4-5 and likely to move to 4-6 since they play D2 Walsh on Friday. Still, Drew Pasteur has Padua ranked #8 in D3/R10. Similar to last year when Padua had a tough schedule, squeaked into the playoffs as the #12 seed at 5-5, and put a running clock on Buckeye in the first round and Norton in the 3rd round of the playoffs.

Records and Harbin points aren't perfect rating systems. Harbins do a poor job of picking the top 8 since the data shows that 9-12 seeds have a 50/50 split with 5-8 seeds. But the data also shows that the Region winners are almost always from among the Top 8, usually the Top 4, so arguing about #12 - #20 is a fool's errand. I'm sure Cardinal Mooney was a fine team. Same for SVSM, same for Padua this season. In the end, Harbins get the Top 4 pretty damn accurate.

Note the common thread here. Parochial schools have a hard time getting public school teams in their Region, let alone Division, to play them in OOC games. That's increasing the chances for public schools in weak conferences (like Westlake, for example, in D2/R6) to get playoff berths and it hurts parochial schools with better programs because they beat each other up.

I've seen it from the public school side as 3 of my kids attended public school. Did well in the regular season only to get slaughtered by St. Ignatius. So, I have limited sympathy for the parochial schools given their advantages despite being a Padua fan today.

Bitter pill, but mid-tier parochial schools will get squeezed out of the playoffs even when they're better than, say, seeds 12-16, due to their schedule difficulties. No complaints though; had Padua held on in the 2nd half in just one of three of its losses, they'd be 5-4 and a virtual lock for a playoff berth. Either way, they're not going to beat Tiffin or TCC, so it's a lost of meaningless speculation.
 
@raising4daughters Padua is not a top 10 team in their division, Mooney was last year and SV-SM was a few years back. I am not necessarily making any argument as it pertains to public/private, it is just coincidental. The same year SV-SM was a #15 seed, East was the #16 seed and also in the top 10 in D-III that year and barely made the playoffs. All I am saying is that even with the playoffs expanded to 16 teams, there have almost been and in the future some of the best teams could potentially get left out of the playoffs still especially in region 9 with how competitive it always is compared to every other region 1 through 28.

Something else to consider is that had Canfield not defeated West Branch in week 1, the defending state champions and probably around the 7th to10th best team in D-III (when healthy, which they haven't been most of the year) would have missed the playoffs despite still having a winning record. (Mainly because all of their defeated opponents except West Branch played difficult schedules and don't provide many L2 points as a result).
 
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