As someone with no dog in this fight, here's the deal, folks.
Every person in NWO north of Van Wert County thinks Liberty Center is UNTOUCHABLE. They're looking at last year's 34-0 result and saying easy-peasy because this LC team is better. They saw that Marion Local-Coldwater score on October 20th and have Sharpie'd in the Tigers as the R18 winners. After hearing earlier this week that the winner of this game gets the Region 20 winner instead of South Range or Perry, LC fans started purchasing their State Championship Game tickets. They're embracing the "No One Likes Us, We Don't Care" & "We Hit Hard!" mantras. They're not sold on the MAC.
NOT.
SO.
FAST.
If you had to pick a weakness for Liberty Center, it's their pass game (which they haven't needed) and their secondary. LC is going to need both of those this week in order to win. Here's why:
-Baylen. Blockberger. This dude's the real deal, Holyfield. Only 2 other players in the MAC (that I've seen in my lifetime) have thrown a prettier ball than Blockberger. That would be Nathan Bruns from ML & Keith Wenning from Coldwater. He had a TD pass last week where he dropped a ball from the 30yd line into the bucket that is Aaron Harlamert's arms in the back of the endzone between 3 defenders--and it wasn't even his best throw of the night. That one came in the 2nd quarter, again on a connection to Harlamert. Blockberger took one step back after catching the shotgun snap, and launched the ball from CW's own 25-yd line. #6 didn't even break a stride as the ball once again landed perfectly in his arms down the right sideline at the Edison 25-yd line. Liberty Center hasn't seen a QB that can throw it like that this season.
-Aside from the QB, Coldwater's strength of their team is their Run Defense, led by MAC DPOY Cody Depweg. Who do you think has a better run game between Marion Local or Liberty Center? Cavs sold out to stop the run against ML and held the Flyers (who average 6.6 ypc) to just 80 yards on 25 carries. They're going to attempt to do the same this week. They've allowed just 3.2 ypc in the regular season, 2nd in the MAC to just Marion Local's 2.4 ypc allowed.
-Line play. LC has dominated the trenches against everyone they've played the last 2 years aside from South Range. But they don't play in the MAC. They HAVE to get as much pressure on Blockberger as they can. If there's any DLine in D5 that can do it, it's Bockelman and crew at LC. But Coldwater likes their quick pass game, too, which may make it a big tougher to get to Blockberger. LC may have the size advantage on the line across the board, but CW's line is the usual for a tough MAC team. Have 1 or 2 bigger guys, but the rest of them have about 0.1% body fat with a good combo of strength and quickness to counteract any size disadvantage.
-On the flip side of Coldwater's defense, their pass defense is 8th/10 in the MAC, allowing 150.5 ypg. They're going to have the same game plan against LC this week as they had against ML. Stop the run. So how did ML win 35-14, you ask? The answer--PLAY. ACTION. If LC wins this game, it'll be because they threw for 150-200 yards minimum. The rushing yards won't come as easy as they're used to. ML QB Justin Knouff back in Week 10 had just 11 completions for 237 yards against Coldwater. Their big plays via play action doomed the Cavs. LC QB Landon Amstutz through their first 12 games averaged 62 ypg throwing the ball. Again, they haven't needed to throw it much. Last week he threw a bit more and was 10/16 for 194 yds. He'll need a similar statline this week to get the W.
That's what LC has to do. Will they? I don't think so.
Cavs 28
LC 24
thanks 
