Ohio In Play?

NewOldBlood said:
I am not a Trump supporter per say, but I will be a Trump voter again in 2020.
This will only be the second time in my life I have voted Republican, but I refuse to get on board with the current direction of the Democratic party specifically my fear that Biden won't be able to complete his term and his too far-left running mate will take over in his absence.
I personally think polls can be manipulated and I think regardless of what side of the aisle you sit on, we can agree that in the last several years a lot of manipulation of facts/news/statements has taken place in an attempt to slander both sides and steer people's opinions in certain directions.
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Mutual Feelings Abound Here !!!!

Makes me wonder How much could have been accomplished if "Russia Hoax" was never started !
 
I live in an affluent community. We don't allow yard signs unless they say "For Sale." Everyone I know is voting the same as my family. Hold our nose, pick Trump. Actually, "has voted" is the proper verb tense. Upper middle class is no different than anyone else. Vote self-interest. And we know that taxes is essentially a math problem. Joe might say "$400K," but to hit his revenue target he'll have to drop to half or a quarter of that. Top 10% lands around $100K taxable income. That's who is getting hit by Biden.
 
lotr10 said:
What, are you a child? All of us are guessing at this and a lot of us will be wrong. It's the nature of the beast. Predicting political outcomes is a lot like predicting sports outcomes - it's fun but none of us are all that good at it.

Hell the key events that will drive this election may not have happened yet.

It's certainly reasonable to conclude that so far and in spite of massive differences in whats going on in the world the 2020 election has many similarities to the 2016 election.

BTW were you one of those who thought Trump would win in 2016? If not then shut the hell about other peoples predictions.
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I am predicting a Biden win , but Lottys right , last time out Janes Comey announced he was still investigating Weiner and Clinton emails right before the election . Something like that could happen again. Who knows . I do think that Biden is in a bit better shape and will win because he’s significantly less un-likeable than Hillary and Trump isn’t a wild card to undecideds . He is known as a leader now . That’s not a positive . National lead means nothing but Trump is going to lose at least. 2 states that he won last time and may be he loses a state where it’s considered an upset :

Right now ? I would predict 8 points nationally and Biden wins Mich Wisc and PA which cuts off the path for Trump and the “ upset “ state Florida or Arizona ?
 
Ohio is not going blue. Trump will win by 2-4 points.

Biden’s team should be focusing on 6 states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I believe MI & WI will be pretty solid blue. The others I am not sure.
 
BlueJayFan said:
Ohio is not going blue. Trump will win by 2-4 points.

Biden’s team should be focusing on 6 states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I believe MI & WI will be pretty solid blue. The others I am not sure.
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I don't know about Michigan but the unnecessary and ultra harsh democrat shutdown of the state could bite Biden in the .

As for Wisconsin, I'm thinking the rioting and burning cities will generate a lot of Trump votes. I predict he carries this state by a greater margin then he did in 2016.
 
sapientia et veritas said:
I live in an affluent community. We don't allow yard signs unless they say "For Sale."
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I presume you have an HOA, then?

Finally had my sign swiped last night. That’s OK— I can buy a couple more. It’s karma against me for laughing out loud at the shoddy sign display at Pickerington & Refugee.
 
4GX said:
It is NOT voting against your own interest to vote in favor of protecting/retaining our Constitution, and respecting both the rule of law, and the separation of powers, and the system of checks and balances, contained within that document. Some people view that as more important— and more in their own interest— than simply voting on economic/pocketbook issues. Clearly, Wolves82 is one of these people.
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You obviously didn’t read or understand the post I was responding to. He quite clearly stated he was voting against his own interests. Thanks for the response from a 18-day old post regarding another poster, unless that is another user name you use.
 
lotr10 said:
I don't know about Michigan but the unnecessary and ultra harsh democrat shutdown of the state could bite Biden in the .

As for Wisconsin, I'm thinking the rioting and burning cities will generate a lot of Trump votes. I predict he carries this state by a greater margin then he did in 2016.
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The plot to kidnap and kill Whitmer may not bode well for Trump in Michigan. Michiganders were not fond of his implied support for the storming of the state house in the spring.

I’m actually most confident in Wisconsin of the Great Lakes states. Trump’s spent a lot of time pounding the table for law and order but there isn’t any polling data to suggest that it’s working anywhere. Ultimately it’s hard to make that argument when it’s happening under your watch.
 
BlueJayFan said:
Ohio is not going blue. Trump will win by 2-4 points.

Biden’s team should be focusing on 6 states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I believe MI & WI will be pretty solid blue. The others I am not sure.
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Good call on Ohio. I said that 8 months ago.

Babbles ain't winning Florida. Trump takes it by at least 3 points. Same for North Carolina.

Pennsylvania is the prize. Babbles must have it, and Trump's path is narrow if he doesn't get it. It's a throw-up at this point.
 
Gulliotine said:
Good call on Ohio. I said that 8 months ago.

Babbles ain't winning Florida. Trump takes it by at least 3 points. Same for North Carolina.

Pennsylvania is the prize. Babbles must have it, and Trump's path is narrow if he doesn't get it. It's a throw-up at this point.
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Trump is going to have to perform significantly better with senior voters if he’s going to win in Florida.

Whoever wins these states will do so by no more than two points imo. The idea that one of them is going to run away with the states is not based in history or data.
 
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Gulliotine said:
Good call on Ohio. I said that 8 months ago.

Babbles ain't winning Florida. Trump takes it by at least 3 points. Same for North Carolina.

Pennsylvania is the prize. Babbles must have it, and Trump's path is narrow if he doesn't get it. It's a throw-up at this point.
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If Trump wins Florida, it will not be by “at least” 3 points. It will be extremely close like last election
 
Obi-Wan said:
Trump is going to have to perform significantly better with senior voters if he’s going to win in Florida.

Whoever wins these states will do so by no more than two points imo. The idea that one of them is going to run away with the states is not based in history or data.
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He needs to perform better with seniors so he tweets a meme making fun of seniors. ?
 
Orin Swift said:
Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, winning by 4 is hardly a carbon copy. Dumb post, but not surprising it came from someone who had 14 consecutive posts and is responding to people from 3 weeks ago about Biden being in Ohio.
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Yeah— dumb to say that somebody who demands that his post (on Trump winning by 4 in Ohio) be “written down” will be reminded of his post, when Nov. 3 rolls around... and dumb to retort to all those claiming that Biden would NOT come to Ohio (they were speaking both retrospectively AND prospectively— if you know what those words mean), when Biden then comes to Ohio— or more like dumb to comment on something that you don’t seem to begin to understand...

I did not say that Trump would win by 8 this time— the “carbon” comment refers to all of the Trump supporters that think that Trump will (somehow) emerge the national victor again, this time, by virtue of some “hidden” voter support that is going to emerge again to belie all the polls showing him losing by significant margins— that is the carbon that will NOT be matched— not Trump’s margin in OH... and really, I expect that Trump NOT ONLY won’t win Ohio by 8% this time— I think it is quite likely that he won’t win Ohio at all— which would doubly put the lie to the original poster’s claim— if Trump wins Ohio at all, I think it is likely to be a skin-of-his-teeth win, not a comfortable 4% win.
 
Gulliotine said:
I didn't say it was a carbon copy of 2016 where he won by 8 points.

I said he'll win by at least 4 points. I'm predicting his margin of victory will be cut in half.
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You‘re still very likely going to be wrong— if Trump wins Ohio at all, it will likely be a very narrow win (e.g.- ~1%)... he is struggling to put together the voting coalition that he had last time... his support has gradually receded back to the ~40% (nationally) that will support him, no matter what he does or says— that group is probably closer to 48-50% of the Ohio electorate— but, if the remainder of Ohio bands together behind Biden, that die-hard supporter group may STILL not be enough to give Trump the win in Ohio.
 
Gulliotine said:
What?

Review Bush V. Gore from 2000

Do you think states should just keep counting until Babbles wins?
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You totally misunderstood my post— this election SHOULD not have to resort to the courts for a decision— this election will be decided at the ballot box, with a decisive victory, that SHOULD require no substantive point of contention to be resolved by the Supreme Court—unlike 2000.

Better Babbles than Goebbels.
 
lotr10 said:
What, are you a child? All of us are guessing at this and a lot of us will be wrong. It's the nature of the beast. Predicting political outcomes is a lot like predicting sports outcomes - it's fun but none of us are all that good at it.

Hell the key events that will drive this election may not have happened yet.

It's certainly reasonable to conclude that so far and in spite of massive differences in whats going on in the world the 2020 election has many similarities to the 2016 election.

BTW were you one of those who thought Trump would win in 2016? If not then shut the hell about other peoples predictions.
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I’m not the one who told everyone else to “write down” his (very likely to be wrong) prediction— I simply agreed with his demand. This is a political debate forum— what the hell else do you expect to find here, except people voicing their opinions— YOU seem to be the child, throwing tantrums, telling somebody else that they need to “shut the hell [sic] about other peoples [sic] predictions”— if you don’t like what you read here, either don’t read it, or put it on ignore, or offer a rational, civil rebuttal— but stop acting like a baby throwing his toys out of the pram, at posts you don’t like.

As for the “reasonable”-ness of concluding that the 2020 election has many similarities to the 2016 election, I have tried, in a number of posts, in a number of different threads, to show exactly why I think the facts directly contradict that conclusion— it may be reasonable to you— but it is far from reasonable to me, when you consider all of the facts that are quite different from 2016.
 
Summa said:
You obviously didn’t read or understand the post I was responding to. He quite clearly stated he was voting against his own interests. Thanks for the response from a 18-day old post regarding another poster, unless that is another user name you use.
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I read his post quite clearly and understood it better than you did— he acknowledged that he is voting against his “economic” Interests— but he then pointed out that he has other, more important, over-riding interests that he IS voting to preserve— as he well-documented in a follow-on post...not sure why it matters whether the post was 18 days ago or 18 minutes ago— his principles— and his reason for voting in accordance with them— are timeless and apply just as strongly today as they did 18 days ago (or 18 years ago)...
 
Gulliotine said:
Good call on Ohio. I said that 8 months ago.

Babbles ain't winning Florida. Trump takes it by at least 3 points. Same for North Carolina.

Pennsylvania is the prize. Babbles must have it, and Trump's path is narrow if he doesn't get it. It's a throw-up at this point.
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Should we “write these down” too? Because I think you will end up being wrong on both of them— I highly doubt that Trump wins Florida, and if he wins NC at all, it is likely to be a nailbiter.

Better Babbles than Goebbels.
 
4GX said:
Should we “write these down” too? Because I think you will end up being wrong on both of them— I highly doubt that Trump wins Florida, and if he wins NC at all, it is likely to be a nailbiter.

Better Babbles than Goebbels.
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I know it probably gets real lonely working the midnight to 6AM desk there at the Motel 6 on RT.42, but do you really believe that binge posting your disjointed Leftist views is a productive use of your time? Shouldn't you be auditing the towels or toilet paper or something?
 
4GX said:
Should we “write these down” too? Because I think you will end up being wrong on both of them— I highly doubt that Trump wins Florida, and if he wins NC at all, it is likely to be a nailbiter.

Better Babbles than Goebbels.
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Yeah, write it down.

Trump wins Ohio EASILY...4 points at least. Your vote does not matter! Trump wins Florida and North Carolina as well, you people are wasting your time mining and divining votes there.
 
Gulliotine said:
Yeah, write it down.

Trump wins Ohio EASILY...4 points at least. Your vote does not matter! Trump wins Florida and North Carolina as well, you people are wasting your time mining and divining votes there.
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He should win those states. If he loses even one, he’s probably getting boat raced in the EC.
 
BlueJayFan said:
Ohio is not going blue. Trump will win by 2-4 points.

Biden’s team should be focusing on 6 states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I believe MI & WI will be pretty solid blue. The others I am not sure.
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So goes Ohio goes the nation. Ohio has picked the winner every year since 64, I doubt if this year will be any different.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
So goes Ohio goes the nation. Ohio has picked the winner every year since 64, I doubt if this year will be any different.
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Ohio isn’t really the bell weather state this year — it’s PA. Trump cannot win without Ohio (though, if he loses Ohio, he’s probably losing in a landslide). Biden can.
 
BlueJayFan said:
Ohio isn’t really the bell weather state this year — it’s PA. Trump cannot win without Ohio (though, if he loses Ohio, he’s probably losing in a landslide). Biden can.
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That's what Hillary thought too. I believe in historical facts and until proven otherwise Ohio is the state to win. If Trump wins Ohio by more than 4 pts. he wins big, if by less than 4 pts. Trump wins a close election, if Biden wins Ohio ( which I think he will narrowly ) Slow Joe wins big.
 
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