Ohio In Play?

The Dock said:
I presume you have an HOA, then?
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Yes. Nice old lady is the president. She lives next door. She sees anyone outside with a shovel, paintbrush, or chainsaw and she comes running. I've asked her every possible variation of sign exceptions. She's had a few violations of it in her own yard - not political - drain people, painters, etc. She has an unwritten one week rule on those, but will yank the sign out of your yard if she's the mowing guy over there. Working from home, we caught her this summer, lol. The landscape control committee is one guy. We have a good system. I yell out my car window, and he files all the paperwork for me, ha ha. She caught onto our tricks this year, and made him come by and take photos for the new trees out front.
 
Let me put the importance of winning OHIO in a better perspective. Ohio has picked the Presidential winner in 14 straight elections, and in 35 of the last 40 elections, that is what I would call a very good indicator of who will win the election.
 
Holy run on sentences, Batman.

4GX said:
Yeah— dumb to say that somebody who demands that his post (on Trump winning by 4 in Ohio) be “written down” will be reminded of his post, when Nov. 3 rolls around... and dumb to retort to all those claiming that Biden would NOT come to Ohio (they were speaking both retrospectively AND prospectively— if you know what those words mean), when Biden then comes to Ohio— or more like dumb to comment on something that you don’t seem to begin to understand...
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Yeah, I didn't say that. But since you brought it up, yes both of those things are pretty dumb, especially in the manner of which you responded lol.

I did not say that Trump would win by 8 this time— the “carbon” comment refers to all of the Trump supporters that think that Trump will (somehow) emerge the national victor again, this time, by virtue of some “hidden” voter support that is going to emerge again to belie all the polls showing him losing by significant margins— that is the carbon that will NOT be matched— not Trump’s margin in OH... and really, I expect that Trump NOT ONLY won’t win Ohio by 8% this time— I think it is quite likely that he won’t win Ohio at all— which would doubly put the lie to the original poster’s claim— if Trump wins Ohio at all, I think it is likely to be a skin-of-his-teeth win, not a comfortable 4% win.
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Okay, you don't know the definition of carbon copy. What a long winded way to say that. Another dumb post. Can't wait for your 2am response tomorrow morning!
 
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Stirred not Shaken said:
Let me put the importance of winning OHIO in a better perspective. Ohio has picked the Presidential winner in 14 straight elections, and in 35 of the last 40 elections, that is what I would call a very good indicator of who will win the election.
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I agree that Ohio is usually extremely important. And it is this year for Trump. But if there’s any year other than 2008 where the Democrat can win without it, it’s this year
 
My wife who is a Trump supporter but much less active in the political debate for our future than I am, told me when I keep reporting that all I see are Trump signs that maybe it is because the colors etc. draw my eyes to Trump. So on our road trip to see the colors we spent time counting signs once again two lane state routes We counted every yard with a sign, yards with more than one sign counted one. So the person with 10 Biden's signs in his small front yard only counted as a 1. Just like the Trump people. Did notice that out in the county we might travel long distances without any signs so we could only guess which we did not. We decided after a short time that we would stop counting when one of the two hit one hundred as the counting was taking way from our viewing the fall colors. So final count was Trump 102 ( went over because several yards had signs in a row at the end.) Biden 19 . Did not seem like we saw that many Biden signs but almost one out of every five was Biden. Another thing I read somewhere that more people are flying the American flag each and every day as a somewhat secret sign of Trump support . Of the 19 Biden only one had a American flag on display. Of the Trump yards there were a lot of yards with the American flag flying and then we noticed a lot of yards with just the American flag flying and no political signs. I said maybe we should stop and as them who they support My wife told me that was not a good idea, dogs, guns and if people wanted us to know they would put signs in their yards. Great day! Beautiful weather! The ice cream we stop and got was wonderful! Sandwiches we had we just run of the mill OK.
 
19AL63 said:
My wife who is a Trump supporter but much less active in the political debate for our future than I am, told me when I keep reporting that all I see are Trump signs that maybe it is because the colors etc. draw my eyes to Trump. So on our road trip to see the colors we spent time counting signs once again two lane state routes We counted every yard with a sign, yards with more than one sign counted one. So the person with 10 Biden's signs in his small front yard only counted as a 1. Just like the Trump people. Did notice that out in the county we might travel long distances without any signs so we could only guess which we did not. We decided after a short time that we would stop counting when one of the two hit one hundred as the counting was taking way from our viewing the fall colors. So final count was Trump 102 ( went over because several yards had signs in a row at the end.) Biden 19 . Did not seem like we saw that many Biden signs but almost one out of every five was Biden. Another thing I read somewhere that more people are flying the American flag each and every day as a somewhat secret sign of Trump support . Of the 19 Biden only one had a American flag on display. Of the Trump yards there were a lot of yards with the American flag flying and then we noticed a lot of yards with just the American flag flying and no political signs. I said maybe we should stop and as them who they support My wife told me that was not a good idea, dogs, guns and if people wanted us to know they would put signs in their yards. Great day! Beautiful weather! The ice cream we stop and got was wonderful! Sandwiches we had we just run of the mill OK.
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I don't think the individual signing counting exercises tell us much beyond the political leanings of that particular area/street. Rural areas will lean Trump and more densely populated areas will lean Biden. Not exactly shocking. I also think if you're a Biden supporter in a heavily signed Trump area, you might not put out a Biden sign given the contentious nature of things right now (I think the inverse is probably also true) so the "imbalances" in certain areas get magnified.

FWIW, my community is about 10-1 Biden to Trump signs from my observations in a city that went 51-49 Hillary in 2016. Don't know if that means anything or not. We'll see come the morning of November 4.
 
19AL63 said:
My wife who is a Trump supporter but much less active in the political debate for our future than I am, told me when I keep reporting that all I see are Trump signs that maybe it is because the colors etc. draw my eyes to Trump. So on our road trip to see the colors we spent time counting signs once again two lane state routes We counted every yard with a sign, yards with more than one sign counted one. So the person with 10 Biden's signs in his small front yard only counted as a 1. Just like the Trump people. Did notice that out in the county we might travel long distances without any signs so we could only guess which we did not. We decided after a short time that we would stop counting when one of the two hit one hundred as the counting was taking way from our viewing the fall colors. So final count was Trump 102 ( went over because several yards had signs in a row at the end.) Biden 19 . Did not seem like we saw that many Biden signs but almost one out of every five was Biden. Another thing I read somewhere that more people are flying the American flag each and every day as a somewhat secret sign of Trump support . Of the 19 Biden only one had a American flag on display. Of the Trump yards there were a lot of yards with the American flag flying and then we noticed a lot of yards with just the American flag flying and no political signs. I said maybe we should stop and as them who they support My wife told me that was not a good idea, dogs, guns and if people wanted us to know they would put signs in their yards. Great day! Beautiful weather! The ice cream we stop and got was wonderful! Sandwiches we had we just run of the mill OK.
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And then everybody clapped
 
BlueJayFan said:
I agree that Ohio is usually extremely important. And it is this year for Trump. But if there’s any year other than 2008 where the Democrat can win without it, it’s this year
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Ohio has moved steadily right/red. We're not really a swing state anymore.
 
19AL63 said:
My wife who is a Trump supporter but much less active in the political debate for our future than I am, told me when I keep reporting that all I see are Trump signs that maybe it is because the colors etc. draw my eyes to Trump. So on our road trip to see the colors we spent time counting signs once again two lane state routes We counted every yard with a sign, yards with more than one sign counted one. So the person with 10 Biden's signs in his small front yard only counted as a 1. Just like the Trump people. Did notice that out in the county we might travel long distances without any signs so we could only guess which we did not. We decided after a short time that we would stop counting when one of the two hit one hundred as the counting was taking way from our viewing the fall colors. So final count was Trump 102 ( went over because several yards had signs in a row at the end.) Biden 19 . Did not seem like we saw that many Biden signs but almost one out of every five was Biden. Another thing I read somewhere that more people are flying the American flag each and every day as a somewhat secret sign of Trump support . Of the 19 Biden only one had a American flag on display. Of the Trump yards there were a lot of yards with the American flag flying and then we noticed a lot of yards with just the American flag flying and no political signs. I said maybe we should stop and as them who they support My wife told me that was not a good idea, dogs, guns and if people wanted us to know they would put signs in their yards. Great day! Beautiful weather! The ice cream we stop and got was wonderful! Sandwiches we had we just run of the mill OK.
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Our bike ride of 5 miles produced 32 Trump and 12 Biden. I thought that about the flags but didn't count. Many homes with flags didn't have Trumps signs. Suburb of Columbus
 
lc5397 said:
I don't think the individual signing counting exercises tell us much beyond the political leanings of that particular area/street. Rural areas will lean Trump and more densely populated areas will lean Biden. Not exactly shocking. I also think if you're a Biden supporter in a heavily signed Trump area, you might not put out a Biden sign given the contentious nature of things right now (I think the inverse is probably also true) so the "imbalances" in certain areas get magnified.

FWIW, my community is about 10-1 Biden to Trump signs from my observations in a city that went 51-49 Hillary in 2016. Don't know if that means anything or not. We'll see come the morning of November 4.
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You need to get out and really count I'll bet your eye sight was like my and can only see one side of the picture. Not saying there are not more Biden but I looked at the total count not just one side and got surprised.
 
Obi-Wan said:
The plot to kidnap and kill Whitmer may not bode well for Trump in Michigan. Michiganders were not fond of his implied support for the storming of the state house in the spring.

I’m actually most confident in Wisconsin of the Great Lakes states. Trump’s spent a lot of time pounding the table for law and order but there isn’t any polling data to suggest that it’s working anywhere. Ultimately it’s hard to make that argument when it’s happening under your watch.
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We'll see.

I am confident that Wisconsin AND Minnesota voters can distinguish between Presidential powers in fighting LOCAL crime and the powers/role of democrat governors, mayors and DA's.

As for Michigan, this is a black box state in terms of how the vote will turn out. Though it's hard for me to believe that those people will blame Trump for the actions of crazies who have more in common with Antifa then anyone else.

In Minnesota, Michigan & Wisconsin the local news, which will be a bit less biased, as well as local social media and talk radio will provide the voters with an accurate read on the state of things. What these voters are seeing is the senseless violence and mayhem in democrat run cities. They will also see that Trump has offered help but been rebuffed.

It's hard not to see the rioting as a democrat law & order problem given that it is occurring under the supportive eyes of local & state democrat administrations.

It will also be interesting to see how Michigan voters react to one of the toughest lock downs in the country. A lock down that has not reduced covid deaths by all that much as Michigan has one of the highest death rates.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Let me put the importance of winning OHIO in a better perspective. Ohio has picked the Presidential winner in 14 straight elections, and in 35 of the last 40 elections, that is what I would call a very good indicator of who will win the election.
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Well, everyone knows that history, and I hope you're right, because President Trump has Ohio in the bag. Ohio is not in play, and Democrats are wasting their time voting. They should find something else productive to do on Nov. 3rd.

I fear there are a couple scenarios where Trump wins Ohio, and loses the election. One is that he loses Pennsylvania.

It's this cycle's canary in the coal mine.
 
19AL63 said:
You need to get out and really count I'll bet your eye sight was like my and can only see one side of the picture. Not saying there are not more Biden but I looked at the total count not just one side and got surprised.
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It was an accurate count.
 
lc5397 said:
Meh. I'm not voting for either idiot, but if your position is that Biden is "corrupt," the Trump Organization is not exactly a different option.
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If voting was for a Person ..... then No one Wins

Last I Checked ...... the President Doesn't make any Laws - the Legislative Branches Do

Let me ask

Can Biden Survive a "Mueller" style investigation ?

or even a "Impeachment" Style investigation ?

Then he Doesn't Get my Vote - remember I was a Democrat
 
2manyBats said:
Can Biden Survive a "Mueller" style investigation ?

or even a "Impeachment" Style investigation ?

Then he Doesn't Get my Vote - remember I was a Democrat
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I'm not sure what you're asking here, but my answer would be yes.

If the Trump Administration thought they had anything of significance on him, they'd already be filing the charges.
 
Orin Swift said:
Holy run on sentences, Batman.



Yeah, I didn't say that. But since you brought it up, yes both of those things are pretty dumb, especially in the manner of which you responded lol.



Okay, you don't know the definition of carbon copy. What a long winded way to say that. Another dumb post. Can't wait for your 2am response tomorrow morning!
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Actually, YOU DID SAY THAT—I didn’t bring up the word dumb— I never used it in my original post— I simply repeated it, from your response to mine— to underline the lack of coherency or logic in your post; since your limited powers of recall are on display here, I should make that explicit for you. Clearly, you‘re quite familiar with “playing dumb”, as it seems to be your primary response mode; your Inability to comprehend even a simple string of logical inferences, let alone a slightly complex one, is evidence of your limits. I suggest you remove “Swift” from your screen posting name, as that HARDLY describes you. If you had made clear, right up front, that you find simple logic so challenging, I wouldn’t have tried to explain the original posts to you— I certainly won’t try to explain the “carbon” reference to you (again), since it is clearly beyond your ken... getting down in the mud with pigs, and all...
 
4GX said:
Actually, YOU DID SAY THAT
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Well, I didn't but if continually repeating it makes you feel better, go for it lol.

—I didn’t bring up the word dumb— I never used it in my original post— I simply repeated it, from your response to mine— to underline the lack of coherency or logic in your post; since your limited powers of recall are on display here, I should make that explicit for you. Clearly, you‘re quite familiar with “playing dumb”, as it seems to be your primary response mode; your Inability to comprehend even a simple string of logical inferences, let alone a slightly complex one, is evidence of your limits. I suggest you remove “Swift” from your screen posting name, as that HARDLY describes you. If you had made clear, right up front, that you find simple logic so challenging, I wouldn’t have tried to explain the original posts to you— I certainly won’t try to explain the “carbon” reference to you (again), since it is clearly beyond your ken... getting down in the mud with pigs, and all...
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Not my fault you responded to a post talking about Trump winning Ohio by 4% and called it a carbon copy of 2016. Another really long winded, dumb post just to say you don't know what a carbon copy is lol. I couldn't imagine being this big of an insufferable try hard for an internet message board, let alone taking it serious, but you do you.
 
Orin Swift said:
Well, I didn't but if continually repeating it makes you feel better, go for it lol.

Not my fault you responded to a post talking about Trump winning Ohio by 4% and called it a carbon copy of 2016. Another really long winded, dumb post just to say you don't know what a carbon copy is lol. I couldn't imagine being this big of an insufferable try hard for an internet message board, let alone taking it serious, but you do you.
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You’re REALLY NOT very swift, are you; here is your original reply to my post, when you first brought the word ”dumb” into the discussion:
Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, winning by 4 is hardly a carbon copy. Dumb post, but not surprising it came from someone who had 14 consecutive posts and is responding to people from 3 weeks ago about Biden being in Ohio.
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As for the rest of your lack of logical comprehension, regarding what the phrase “carbon copy” referred to: When I said that “Anyone who thinks this election is a carbon copy of the last one Is going to be in for a rude surprise on Nov. 4”, I was broadly referring to the NUMEROUS postings of Trump supporters on this forum, which have been saying (paraphrasing here) that “the polls are not accurate” and “the polls were totally wrong last time” and “it doesn’t matter what the polls say, because the polls said Trump was losing big last time, and he still won anyway”.

I was NOT referring to the specific numeric prediction that “Trump will win Ohio by 4” by Gulliotine [sic] (It doesn’t take a lot to recognize that 4 does not equal 8– but, I commend you on IMMEDIATELY coming to THAT insightful conclusion)—I merely used his post on that topic, to make the larger counter-claim that this election is NOT going to be a carbon copy of the 2016 election. And, I did that, in part because Lotr10 and Crusader, in other earlier posts on this same thread (Right after Gulliotine [sic] asserted how much Trump would win by) had asserted opinions the essence of which were that “Ohio is not in play— Trump is winning Ohio— same as he did last time.”— a sentiment which exemplifies this all-too-common Trump supporter worldview that this election (at the national level) is going to turn out just like it did last time.

I didn’t think I would need to spell it out for you in such elementary granularity, but It seems one is forced to explain at the level of comprehension of the audience.
 
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I hate to break it to you, but Biden can lose PA, OH, FL, IA, TX, FL, NC, GA and still come out with 270 in the ec. I don’t think that’s likely......if he takes MI, WS, and MN, then he’s taking PA. PA is the only state on that list that is leaning blue.,,the others are tossups with TX leaning red. Bottom line: Ohio no longer matters.

Im hopeful that Ohio goes blue, but I’m back and forth on this. My gut tells me Ohio has become so economically depressed in areas that the state is red. But we will see.
 
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FlierNut said:
I hate to break it to you, but Biden can lose PA, OH, FL, IA, TX, FL, NC, GA and still come out with 270 in the ec. I don’t think that’s likely......if he takes MI, WS, and MN, then he’s taking PA. PA is the only state on that list that is leaning blue.,,the others are tossups with TX leaning red. Bottom line: Ohio no longer matters.

Im hopeful that Ohio goes blue, but I’m back and forth on this. My gut tells me Ohio has become so economically depressed in areas that the state is red. But we will see.
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I’m well aware of the Electoral College machinations that you cite above — and Yes, it’s true that Ohio hardly mattered, either the last time OR this time— it’s one of reasons that (initially) no one was even talking about it as the “bellwether“ that it has historically been (at least for Republicans)— it was assumed to be so far into Trump’s column, that it wasn’t even worth debating (or contesting, if you are Biden)— the attention swung to MI, WI (there is no WS), and PA—THOSE are the states where Billary blew it— and where Trump cannot afford to lose, and still hope to win THIS time...

BUT— ironically (as you duly note), that (initial) conventional wisdom on Ohio has turned out NOT to be true— NOT that Ohio is going to decide the election— but that Ohio is far into Trump’s column— THAT is most definitely NO LONGER true—and Trump is going to struggle to win Ohio this time... as for the state’s overall tenor— I think you can see (with Cincinnati’s gradual shift into the Democratic camp) that Ohio is becoming an uniformly Democratic state in ALL of the major cities, and then only solidly Republican in the rural areas— with the suburbs of the major cities now becoming the swing vote that determines whether a Trump or a Sherrod Brown wins a state-wide election— and I don’t think those suburban voters (especially the women) are as predictably Republican as your post above would suggest...

The bottom line for me: Trump has so mismanaged his campaign and his messaging (and SO MANY OTHER THINGS) that he has managed to push away many people in his natural constituencies: among older Americans, affluent suburban women, military, and “rule-of-law” focused Republicans— to the point that Trump is NOW having to desperately contest states that were previously thought to be VERY safely in his column (e.g.- TX, GA, OH, NC, IA) as well as some “swing” states that he was previously thought to have an advantage in (e.g.- FL, PA, AZ)— he is now fighting losing rear guard actions in states that he thought he had locked up months (even years) ago.
 
Trump seems to be taking Ohio for granted ( cancelled tv spending, I know still spending on FB which may be more important ). Personally I think that is a mistake but we will see.
 
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