Ohio In Play?

4GX said:
I’m well aware of the Electoral College machinations that you cite above — and Yes, it’s true that Ohio hardly mattered, either the last time OR this time— it’s one of reasons that (initially) no one was even talking about it as the “bellwether“ that it has historically been (at least for Republicans)— it was assumed to be so far into Trump’s column, that it wasn’t even worth debating (or contesting, if you are Biden)— the attention swung to MI, WI (there is no WS), and PA—THOSE are the states where Billary blew it— and where Trump cannot afford to lose, and still hope to win THIS time...

BUT— ironically (as you duly note), that (initial) conventional wisdom on Ohio has turned out NOT to be true— NOT that Ohio is going to decide the election— but that Ohio is far into Trump’s column— THAT is most definitely NO LONGER true—and Trump is going to struggle to win Ohio this time... as for the state’s overall tenor— I think you can see (with Cincinnati’s gradual shift into the Democratic camp) that Ohio is becoming an uniformly Democratic state in ALL of the major cities, and then only solidly Republican in the rural areas— with the suburbs of the major cities now becoming the swing vote that determines whether a Trump or a Sherrod Brown wins a state-wide election— and I don’t think those suburban voters (especially the women) are as predictably Republican as your post above would suggest...

The bottom line for me: Trump has so mismanaged his campaign and his messaging (and SO MANY OTHER THINGS) that he has managed to push away many people in his natural constituencies: among older Americans, affluent suburban women, military, and “rule-of-law” focused Republicans— to the point that Trump is NOW having to desperately contest states that were previously thought to be VERY safely in his column (e.g.- TX, GA, OH, NC, IA) as well as some “swing” states that he was previously thought to have an advantage in (e.g.- FL, PA, AZ)— he is now fighting losing rear guard actions in states that he thought he had locked up months (even years) ago.
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I hope you’re right. I have a tough time trusting the polls after 2016, even though they weren’t as wrong as folks like to think. Being a lifelong Browns fan, I never take a predicted win for granted.
 
4GX said:
You’re REALLY NOT very swift, are you; here is your original reply to my post, when you first brought the word ”dumb” into the discussion:


As for the rest of your lack of logical comprehension, regarding what the phrase “carbon copy” referred to: When I said that “Anyone who thinks this election is a carbon copy of the last one Is going to be in for a rude surprise on Nov. 4”, I was broadly referring to the NUMEROUS postings of Trump supporters on this forum, which have been saying (paraphrasing here) that “the polls are not accurate” and “the polls were totally wrong last time” and “it doesn’t matter what the polls say, because the polls said Trump was losing big last time, and he still won anyway”.

I was NOT referring to the specific numeric prediction that “Trump will win Ohio by 4” by Gulliotine [sic] (It doesn’t take a lot to recognize that 4 does not equal 8– but, I commend you on IMMEDIATELY coming to THAT insightful conclusion)—I merely used his post on that topic, to make the larger counter-claim that this election is NOT going to be a carbon copy of the 2016 election. And, I did that, in part because Lotr10 and Crusader, in other earlier posts on this same thread (Right after Gulliotine [sic] asserted how much Trump would win by) had asserted opinions the essence of which were that “Ohio is not in play— Trump is winning Ohio— same as he did last time.”— a sentiment which exemplifies this all-too-common Trump supporter worldview that this election (at the national level) is going to turn out just like it did last time.

I didn’t think I would need to spell it out for you in such elementary granularity, but It seems one is forced to explain at the level of comprehension of the audience.
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Don't care, didn't read. Sorry you don't know what a carbon copy is, sorry your ego was hurt this bad because I said you had a dumb post.
 
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wolves82 said:
I'm a man, college grad, fairly bright, small software business owner. I'd prefer to vote for republicans because I am a capitalist, believe in small government, and generally agree with republican policy. I'm willing to set aside my preferred policy for 4 years in order to get a dictator-wanna-be out of power. Biden would do less damage in the next 4 years than this guy. This is a vote for America's soul, and it troubles me that so many people can't see that. Trump is basically urinating on the constitution and a bunch of people are cheering him on. I don't get it.

Can you explain, Mr. Troll?
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You're lying. Biden won't be president for even 12 months, Harris will be president before the ball drops on 2021 - that gives Pelosi and Schumer (should the Dems take the Senate) 365 days to remake America into their "progressive" utopia. It won't be a series of executive orders that can be undone (although why the DACA EO can't be undone by another escapes me), it will be a packed SCOTUS, a remake of environmental laws, remake of our tax laws, higher taxes to pay for "free" college, the green new deal, "free" healthcare, government interventions in wages, increased regulations, decreased law enforcement, subservience to federal mandates........
 
It
SWMCinci said:
You're lying. Biden won't be president for even 12 months, Harris will be president before the ball drops on 2021 - that gives Pelosi and Schumer (should the Dems take the Senate) 365 days to remake America into their "progressive" utopia. It won't be a series of executive orders that can be undone (although why the DACA EO can't be undone by another escapes me), it will be a packed SCOTUS, a remake of environmental laws, remake of our tax laws, higher taxes to pay for "free" college, the green new deal, "free" healthcare, government interventions in wages, increased regulations, decreased law enforcement, subservience to federal mandates........
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It would almost be worth all those things just to watch you implode. That would be some funny .
 
Gulliotine said:
Ohio is not in play.

Trump wins by at least 4 points.

Please make a note of this.
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Did you read where 41 % of voters in Ohio have already voted, in 2016, 5.2 million people voted in Ohio That means over 2,100,000 Ohioans have voted already and Biden leads among this group 61 % to 34 % or in other words Biden leads 1,300,000 to 700,000 almost double over Trump with only 59 % of Buckeye voters still to vote. With approx.. 3.1 million votes left Trump is going to have to receive around 60 % of the remaining vote to win, which he might but Ohio is in play.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Did you read where 41 % of voters in Ohio have already voted, in 2016, 5.2 million people voted in Ohio That means over 2,100,000 Ohioans have voted already and Biden leads among this group 61 % to 34 % or in other words Biden leads 1,300,000 to 700,000 almost double over Trump with only 59 % of Buckeye voters still to vote. With approx.. 3.1 million votes left Trump is going to have to receive around 60 % of the remaining vote to win, which he might but Ohio is in play.
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You don't think any registered democrats are voting for Trump? I mean, you do know those votes haven't actually been counted?
 
Gulliotine said:
You don't think any registered democrats are voting for Trump? I mean, you do know those votes haven't actually been counted?
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Especially in Eastern Ohio.

And what about independents? Aren't they part of the early voting total? What % of Ohioans are registered as independent?
 
Gulliotine said:
You don't think any registered democrats are voting for Trump? I mean, you do know those votes haven't actually been counted?
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Very few, more likely more Republicans in Ohio vote for Biden at least % wise. But I am just posting what Rasmussen is saying ( quote : Forty-one percent (41%) of voters in the Buckeye State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads by a whopping 61% to 34%). After all you Trumpeteers think Rasmussen is Gospel.
 
Of course the "hide in the basement crew" will vote first and think they are winning...
Trump voters are waiting to see the white in their eyes before we vote.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Very few, more likely more Republicans in Ohio vote for Biden at least % wise. But I am just posting what Rasmussen is saying ( quote : Forty-one percent (41%) of voters in the Buckeye State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads by a whopping 61% to 34%). After all you Trumpeteers think Rasmussen is Gospel.
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Well, I don't think much of that.

I'm not sure how anyone could even come to those conclusions.
 
lotr10 said:
Especially in Eastern Ohio.

And what about independents? Aren't they part of the early voting total? What % of Ohioans are registered as independent?
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Your reading comprehension is not so good. The poll is saying among all people who have voted, Dems, independents and Republicans, Biden leads 61 % to 34 %.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Your reading comprehension is not so good. The poll is saying among all people who have voted, Dems, independents and Republicans, Biden leads 61 % to 34 %.
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So is this poll as accurate as the exit polls were in 2004? You know the ones that had Kerry up big time over GW Bush?
 
lotr10 said:
So is this poll as accurate as the exit polls were in 2004? You know the ones that had Kerry up big time over GW Bush?
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I am no expert just quoting numbers from a poll. A polling company that so many posters on here have quoted as well in the past. Plus didn't Rasmussen get the 2016 election correct as so many on here have been fond of saying.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Very few, more likely more Republicans in Ohio vote for Biden at least % wise. But I am just posting what Rasmussen is saying ( quote : Forty-one percent (41%) of voters in the Buckeye State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads by a whopping 61% to 34%). After all you Trumpeteers think Rasmussen is Gospel.
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They haven't released any vote totals.

What they are releasing is party registration.

25% of Dems in Ohio have voted while less than 14% of Republicans have voted.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Your reading comprehension is not so good. The poll is saying among all people who have voted, Dems, independents and Republicans, Biden leads 61 % to 34 %.
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They have no way of knowing who the votes are for. The only information released by the Board of Elections is party affiliation. Simply put, more Dems have voted than Republicans.
 
Our betting line as of this morning is Ohio Trump -210.

So bet 210 dollars on Don to win 100 dollars.

Even the odds makers don't believe Babbles can win here.
 
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