Excess Deaths

lotr10

Well-known member
Interesting take on excess deaths by the EthicalSkeptic:


https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321512633200218113


I ran a scenario: added in 17/18 flu season & then grew the anticipated deaths to 2020, using the ann growth rate in deaths-US (higher than population growth because of age dist) = Same result. These people in the media running death rates are lying to you about excess deaths.

Check out the graph at the link.
 

lc5397

Well-known member
Interesting take on excess deaths by the EthicalSkeptic:


https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1321512633200218113


I ran a scenario: added in 17/18 flu season & then grew the anticipated deaths to 2020, using the ann growth rate in deaths-US (higher than population growth because of age dist) = Same result. These people in the media running death rates are lying to you about excess deaths.

Check out the graph at the link.
I have no idea what this guy is trying to claim.
 

lc5397

Well-known member
Just providing a public service. A lot of people here were making the argument for months that the overall death numbers this year were not only NOT going up but where actually going down compared to last year. Just last week ITRW, I had somebody going on about how COVID was all made up and deaths were down 300,000 from last year.
 

Crusaders

Moderator
1/3 of which are already acknowledged as not attributable to COVID. The age-group demographic with the most deaths are 26-54, meaning of 2/3, even still a large portion is not COVID.
 

Gulliotine

Well-known member
A lot of people here were making the argument for months that the overall death numbers this year were not only NOT going up but where actually going down compared to last year.
It's not compared to last year.

It's compared to a 3 year average of a steadily increasing 10 year trend, massaged for your pleasure.

It's fuzzy math.
 
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Stirred not Shaken

Well-known member
Interesting how cases have gone up drastically yet deaths have gone down.

Is the virus more contagious yet less lethal now than last spring? Or is the treatment better?
Their is no doubt doctors on the local level are figuring out how to treat the virus better, while at the national level the " experts "just keep pontificating their political agenda and don't have a clue on how to treat the virus.
 

zeeman

Well-known member
Interesting how cases have gone up drastically yet deaths have gone down.

Is the virus more contagious yet less lethal now than last spring? Or is the treatment better?
Haven’t had ANY deaths since May where I work, have not even had any bad symptoms for the infected we have been treating 🤷🏿
 

I enjoy wrestling

Well-known member
Interesting how cases have gone up drastically yet deaths have gone down.

Is the virus more contagious yet less lethal now than last spring? Or is the treatment better?
The last graph I looked at was interesting. The Hospital admittance, ICU and death lines didn’t follow the Positive rate for virus. We are testing so many more, so positivity rate will out pace the other data points. But, why aren't the news conferences educating with numbers? Why?
 

psycho_dad

Well-known member
This has all been a moving target, but what is the acceptable number of deaths? If this was affecting children at the rate it does people over 50, those of you pooh poohing this would be irate. Back when Trump was still getting out there and hogging the spotlight, 100k was a stupid high number. Luck for everyone that he was in charge, or it could be as high as 250k by the end of the year.

In El Paso Tx, they have had over 750 Covid deaths. They also had 22 deaths where the person had Covid, but it was determined that something else killed the person. (Something that so many of you have said is absolutely not true. "they are counting anyone with Covid as a covid death..." That is false. There are more than 400 more deaths that they have not made a final determination because in the past few weeks they have been hit so hard they haven't had the time or manpower to get to them. They have had to stack the bodies in refrigerated trailers because they have exceeded capacity. (I'm sure that since it happens all the time that the hospitals are over run and the deaths are so many that the bodies are stacked in trailers, that it has nothing to do with Covid. )

Since every other time there have been excess deaths reported, there has been a flu outbreak of some sort, why all of a sudden this time, that's not the case? Why have 313k more people died than anticipated? Do you think some or most of the 97k not yet listed as covid might be from covid? Looks like Covid is being undercounted not over counted.

This has not aged well.
President Trump on Sunday radically revised upward his estimate of how many Americans would die from the novel coronavirus, saying that anywhere between 80,000 and 100,000 people could die—after he cited a death toll of 50,000 to 60,000 roughly two weeks ago. “That’s one of the reasons we’re successful, if you call losing 80 or 90 thousand people successful,” Trump said in a Fox News town hall at the Lincoln Memorial.

“I used to say 65,000,” the president added, “and now I’m saying 80 or 90 and it goes up and it goes up rapidly, but it’s still going to be, no matter how you look at it, at the lower end of the plane if we did the shutdown.” He later added: “We’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people. That’s a horrible thing.” Trump, who declared in February that the country would see no more than 15 cases in total, has steadily increased his prediction of how many Americans would die from the virus.
 

lc5397

Well-known member
Where are you getting these numbers? Does it breakdown numbers by expected suicides, expected heart attacks, etc?

Thanks.
The numbers are from the CDC website.

I'm not sure if what you're asking for is available at this time.

Here's an article that touches on other causes of death relative to COVID.

 

multisportdad

Active member
The numbers are from the CDC website.

I'm not sure if what you're asking for is available at this time.

Here's an article that touches on other causes of death relative to COVID.

Thanks.

Also from the CDC website:

1605640269386.png

This might explain the 90K+ difference between covid deaths and excess deaths.
 

Yappi

Go Buckeyes
Thanks.

Also from the CDC website:

This might explain the 90K+ difference between covid deaths and excess deaths.
The 90K+ difference is explained by the CDC coming up with a fake expected deaths number. Add about 2000 deaths to each week they calculate to come up with a real expected death number. TEN years in a row the number of deaths went up in the United States. In 2020, the CDC made a ridiculous calculation that said deaths would go down this year. CDC's expected death numbers are a fraud.
 

lc5397

Well-known member
The 90K+ difference is explained by the CDC coming up with a fake expected deaths number. Add about 2000 deaths to each week they calculate to come up with a real expected death number. TEN years in a row the number of deaths went up in the United States. In 2020, the CDC made a ridiculous calculation that said deaths would go down this year. CDC's expected death numbers are a fraud.
We've gone over all of this before. You're quibbling about the numbers at the margins. Even at what you would consider a more realistic estimate for 2020, we're still going to blow past that number by about 400,000. And that's if we don't see another extended, elevated increase in COVID deaths the last two months.
 

Yappi

Go Buckeyes
We've gone over all of this before. You're quibbling about the numbers at the margins. Even at what you would consider a more realistic estimate for 2020, we're still going to blow past that number by about 400,000. And that's if we don't see another extended, elevated increase in COVID deaths the last two months.
It's not quibbling. You made the first post in this thread claiming that excess deaths equate to undercounting Covid-19 deaths. This was your post:

But here's the thing, even after you account for the 172,688 COVID-related deaths during that time period, that still leaves an additional 72,778 excess deaths versus expected. All of which points to the probability that COVID-related death numbers being reported are probably lower than the actual.

Excess deaths seems to be trending very closely to the number of Covid-19 deaths. Even with that, the most recent couple of months indicate that Covid-19 deaths are starting to exceed excess deaths.
 

lc5397

Well-known member
Even with that, the most recent couple of months indicate that Covid-19 deaths are starting to exceed excess deaths.
This isn't likely to be true when the numbers are all in. Death numbers lag up to a couple of months. I expect the excess deaths in every month will exceed the number of COVID deaths.
 

MoeDude

Roll Me Away!
I find it interesting that all the Lefties on here want to blame all deaths on COVID19. I have a sister-in-law that works in the medical field and she's seen the tables and reports and basically they are lumping flu, accidents and everything else into COVID19 deaths list. The numbers are a joke. You can put together all the tables you want but the bottom line this is political and financial. Hospitals are still getting "bonuses" by claiming a death is due to COVID19. COVID19 does exist but it is a huge experiment in how to control the masses and the masses are failing big time with how easily they are falling into the fear of COVID19.
 
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lc5397

Well-known member
I find it interesting that all the Lefties on here want to blame all deaths on COVID19. I have a sister-in-law that works in the medical field and she's seen the tables and reports and basically they are lumping flu, accidents and everything else into COVID19 deaths list. The numbers are a joke. You can put together all the tables you want but the bottom line this is political and financial. Hospitals are still getting "bonuses" by claiming a death is due to COVID19. COCVID19 does exist but it is a huge experiment in how to control the masses and the masses are failing big time with how easily they are falling into the fear of COVID19.
Pretty much false across the board.
 

Yappi

Go Buckeyes
This isn't likely to be true when the numbers are all in. Death numbers lag up to a couple of months. I expect the excess deaths in every month will exceed the number of COVID deaths.
Just looking at your September 12th data. Using a real expected deaths number, the excess deaths are 3653. Covid-19 deaths are listed at 4333. From that date forward, it looks like Covid-19 deaths may outperform excess deaths. Of course, the "experts" will continue to use the fraudulent CDC expected deaths to make their numbers look better.

The CDC trendline:

7th grade boy: 5'6"
8th grade boy: 5'8"
9th grade boy: 5'10"

Expected height in 10th grade: 5'8"

Congrats CDC on putting out fake numbers to "prove" your point.
 

SWMCinci

Well-known member
They got it under control pretty quickly the first time. I have more confidence in them doing so again than I do of the US doing so.

FWIW, Europe's overall numbers are still far better the US.
Depends on how you look at it. Continually yo-yoing between full lockdowns and partial lockdowns means nothing is getting resolved. New Zealand is a frickin' island and they are dealing with a yo-yo effect. If you're nervous, wear a mask and socially distance yourself. If you feel unsafe in a store or restaurant, don't go. If you are over 70 take care of yourself or don't. In 1918 they got to herd immunity at around 30%, it was another 15 years before there was a vaccine. We might need to get to 45-60% to get there, but it's what happens in pandemics.
 

Yappi

Go Buckeyes
Not going down this road with you again. Even with your "real" number, we're going to be about 400k above expected for the year.
Right now, we are at about 240,000 above real expectations using your data. The first 3+ weeks of the year that are excluded from this data was actually a negative number. You really think we are going to add 160,000+ excess deaths in the next 2 months?

I suspect we are going to be closer to 275,000 excess deaths for 2020. Right in line or a little less than the reported Covid-19 deaths.
 

SWMCinci

Well-known member
Not going down this road with you again. Even with your "real" number, we're going to be about 400k above expected for the year.
And that was going to happen no matter what we did if we expected to have a society and economy at the end of the year. Not sure what you are whining about. Remember when they said we'd have 500K-1M million dead by the end of the year without immediate action? The action was to flatten the curve, not prevent any deaths. Without a vaccine we are all 100% guaranteed to get this at some point, and either live or die from it. Even with the actions we've taken the number will eventually get to 500K-1M dead.
 
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