Excess Deaths

said_aouita

Well-known member
South Carolina has no statewide mask requirements, leaving 11 jurisdictions with mask mandates and 61 without. The South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control’s latest findings, from mid-August, report that communities with mask mandates saw a drop of 34 cases per 100,000 people for the four weeks after the requirements were implemented, compared to before the orders took effect. In the same period, jurisdictions without mask requirements saw a rise of 24 cases per 100,000 people.
Meanwhile, look at North Dakota without any mask requirements.
 

winbypin

Well-known member
South Carolina has no statewide mask requirements, leaving 11 jurisdictions with mask mandates and 61 without. The South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control’s latest findings, from mid-August, report that communities with mask mandates saw a drop of 34 cases per 100,000 people for the four weeks after the requirements were implemented, compared to before the orders took effect. In the same period, jurisdictions without mask requirements saw a rise of 24 cases per 100,000 people.
Meanwhile, look at North Dakota without any mask requirements.
So the state we live in is an anomaly? We are defying gravity?
 

Gulliotine

Well-known member
There is no scientific reason for healthy people to wear a mask.

Sick people should stay home.

It's hilarious how self-righteous Moonbats are after just discovering personal hygiene.

lmao
 

SWMCinci

Well-known member
There’s a whole raft of silly comments in here— but a couple stand out:
1) Biden hasn’t (and doesn’t plan to) outlaw anything— so how does that parallel your “outlaw cigarettes and cigars” silly comment.
2) In fact, Democrats, if given free reign, would probably actually very much LIKE to ban cigarettes and cigars— but, we learned (with Prohibition) that banning something people like and are addicted to doesn’t work—and fosters crime syndicates that also commit other crimes— something we should have learned (and reacted to) with all other controlled substance drugs.
3) Your math is wrong— with Covid-19 deaths at 282,000 (or even your 215,000 quote), that is right around 0.07% of the US’s 330 million population—already ~45 times higher than you cite— and then, households are not composed of one person— if we put the average household size at 2.5 people, then you are talking about the incidence of a household having a Covid-19 death being over 100 times more likely than you have claimed.
4) Covid-19 is about 6-7X more lethal than the average seasonal flu; so it would take ~7 years for the flu to kill as many people as Covid-19 will kill this year— not 3-4 years... and many employers (my wife’s being one of them) DO require them to get an annual flu vaccone as a condition of continuing employment— there is NO choice in the matter, if she wants to keep working there.
5). We ARE going after heart disease even harder than we go after Covid-19– we spend thousands of times more each year (in health care research) on heart disease than we do on COVID, and yet, heart disease does not upend our entire economy the way this epidemic has.
1. Why not? He wants to force the country to wear masks for the next 3 years and that doesn't prevent the spread of the virus. It just delays the inevitable. They really could eliminate most lung cancer by eliminating tobacco and cigarettes. If 1 allegedly preventable Covid death is too many, why isn't the same standard used for lung cancer which kills many more people?
2. So you think banning tobacco would lead to crime but forcing rational people to wear a mask won't?
3. 215K Covid deaths into 330M households - .0016 households affected, I did throw a % notation in there without dividing by 100, the real number is 0.16%. Math was correct, symbol was incorrect.
4. 2020 we will have somewhere between 250-300K deaths, Over the last 20 years the number of dead from flu has ranged between 12K and 80K, if we had 4 bad years of the flu that would be 320K deaths. So, there's that. My wife's employer (a major hospital) also requires flu shots to remain employed, but that is not the case for 320M+ Americans. It's a very different proposition for a private employer to require certain choices vs every citizen to be required as has been demonstrated many times over the years. The Constitution does actually protect citizens from government edicts just to be a member of society.
5. Covid has upended the economy because we allowed it to, the number of people hospitalized did not exceed our capacity to treat people, the number of dead has not wiped out segments of society or been stacked up like cordwood. As has been demonstrated more than 80% of the people infected have no reported symptoms, fewer than 10% even seek medical attention, around 2.6% die. Startling numbers, but nothing compared to the 1919 flu or Bubonic Plague. If we treated Covid like heart disease, cancer, AIDS, the flu - it wouldn't have upended our economy at all.
 

SWMCinci

Well-known member
Without more people wearing masks and following social distancing, our case counts would be significantly higher.
Maybe. Maybe not. Put a parade of people walking through a few retirement centers with masks on and appropriately socially distanced as they do so and see if we don't start seeing a spike in elderly deaths. If masks and social distancing works you would NOT see an increase in elderly deaths. But you would because they don't prevent anything, they reduce the chances, they don't eliminate them. That's what was discovered in New York and many other states, the single most susceptible factor was advanced age.

Doctors in hospitals treating Covid patients didn't just wear a mask and socially distance themselves, they wore actual hazmat gear operating in HEPA filtered environments with the most real world anti-viral measures and even then it wasn't sufficient.
 

winbypin

Well-known member
How do you think the virus got here?
Same way it got to New Zealand. But New Zealand has a population of about 4.8 million and a land mass the size of roughly colorado. And it's an island. Which means travel to and from is easier to control.

Once it arrived in the US there was a much larger population to spread to as well as a much larger geographic area that people could travel amongst freely and potentially spread the virus.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
This must look awfully familiar-- since you see it in the mirror every morning, when you are shaving— anyone who can claim to have read the commercial airline virus distribution study, and somehow concluded that:
A) Masks don’t work;
B) Masks don’t reduce the spread of the virus as aerosol particles;
C) Masks are not recommended by the study‘s authors;
...is either a science ignoramus, or a complete liar and shameless political hack.
[/QUOTE]

Liar
 

lotr10

Well-known member
This is for 4GX in response to his claim that no one is showing evidence for the lock down deaths:


This guy has been estimating lock down deaths for several months now. He uses sound statistical analysis and reasonable asumptions to support his claims. Dispute his methodology and conclusions. And there are others out there getting similar rsults but let's see if you can refute his work first.

And remember calling this guy names is not refuting his work.

 

lotr10

Well-known member
Clueless describes you perfectly— you just made my point for me again— you ended up with your standard BS refrain “school shutdowns are child abuse”— I did NOT say that “school shutdowns won’t hurt kids”— but there is a HUGE difference between saying that ”school shutdowns hurt kids” and “school shutdowns are child abuse”— you like to use that phrase like a pro-abortionist talking about limits on abortion “killing women and hurting women’s health”— it’s an absurd, jingoistic refrain, designed to illicit an extreme reaction— but it has no basis in reality-- Child abuse is NOT keeping a kid home from school— it is physically or mentally assaulting a child, and the like— keeping a kid home from school (and home schooling them) is NOT child abuse— many people do it for their kids’ entire childhood— and produce some of the highest achieving children in our society.

As for ignorant people NOT listening to their elected officials (and their public health officials) and electing not to get care— you can’t stop people from making stupid personal health decisions— that happens all the time (it’s why we have smokers and alcoholics and hugely obese people, despite incredible efforts to dissuade them from those destructive behaviors)— but people are going to do stupid things, no matter what good advice they get from their elected officials and health care advisors— we’ve had ALL too much of that during this epidemic.... I don‘t feel any empathy for people who won’t listen to widely promulgated good advice— and HAVE NOT BEEN TOLD that they should NOT go to the doctor with health emergencies or even for regular preventative care.
Shutting down schools today, given what we know about the risk of covid to kids, is CHILD ABUSE.
 

eastisbest

Well-known member
1. Why not? He wants to force the country to wear masks for the next 3 years and that doesn't prevent the spread of the virus.
2. So you think banning tobacco would lead to crime but forcing rational people to wear a mask won't?
3. 215K Covid deaths into 330M households - .0016 households affected, I did throw a % notation in there without dividing by 100, the real number is 0.16%. Math was correct, symbol was incorrect.
4. 2020 we will have somewhere between 250-300K deaths, Over the last 20 years the number of dead from flu has ranged between 12K and 80K, if we had 4 bad years of the flu that would be 320K deaths. So, there's that. My wife's employer (a major hospital) also requires flu shots to remain employed, but that is not the case for 320M+ Americans. It's a very different proposition for a private employer to require certain choices vs every citizen to be required as has been demonstrated many times over the years. The Constitution does actually protect citizens from government edicts just to be a member of society.
5. Covid has upended the economy because we allowed it to, the number of people hospitalized did not exceed our capacity to treat people, the number of dead has not wiped out segments of society or been stacked up like cordwood. As has been demonstrated more than 80% of the people infected have no reported symptoms, fewer than 10% even seek medical attention, around 2.6% die. Startling numbers, but nothing compared to the 1919 flu or Bubonic Plague. If we treated Covid like heart disease, cancer, AIDS, the flu - it wouldn't have upended our economy at all.
1) "prevent" SMH Tilting an argument.
2) Good manners are good manners. It's not a difficult thing to do buttercup.
3) Under a quarantine condition,not an open society condition. You are more than welcome to commune in your personal environment as thick as you want. I'm sure you hae just to make your point the virus is only here to remove a President.
4 Under quarantine conditions. Is this how you engineered? Ignoring data? You were in marketing, weren't you?
5. On this we agree, You were free to spend, spend, spend. Not one person stopped you.
 

Hammerdrill

Well-known member
A paper or cloth mask does not prevent a single death. There are serious questions whether Vietnam Taiwan or New Zealand are measuring deaths the same way we are. In fact, New Zealand has had problems of late. No epidemiologist would tell you that a paper or cloth mask is preventing transmissions, if that is your thinking, paper and cloth masks are the TSA of preventable measures. It reduces the chance, it prevents nothing. To prevent it, you would need a much more active filtration and containment system and even then it's not foolproof.

A paper/cloth mask reduces airflow, that is it. The Covid virus is smaller than the porous surfaces of paper/cloth masks., which means the virus itself passes through the material like it was not there. What the mask does is reduce the speed of the particles leaving a body so that they don't spread as far. That's it. Someone walking behind an infected person is walking through their exhalations like someone walking through the fog.
Liberals should wear shirts that say, "I'm holding my breath to protect you!".
 

fish82

Well-known member
This is for 4GX in response to his claim that no one is showing evidence for the lock down deaths:


This guy has been estimating lock down deaths for several months now. He uses sound statistical analysis and reasonable asumptions to support his claims. Dispute his methodology and conclusions. And there are others out there getting similar rsults but let's see if you can refute his work first.

And remember calling this guy names is not refuting his work.

Interesting that the CDC finally got around to quantifying their excess deaths numbers this week, and the percentages match ES' almost exactly.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
Interesting that the CDC finally got around to quantifying their excess deaths numbers this week, and the percentages match ES' almost exactly.
Not surprised as this guy seems pretty sharp.

When we get past the covid outbreak hard questions will have to be asked about the analysis, handling and dissemination of the data on the pandemic from the official public health agencies. They are either being deliberately obtuse through incompetence or by design.

I would turn all the data over to the insurance industry and let their people analyze the information and present the results to the public. In the future we have to do a better job here.
 

OldSoulon

Well-known member
Not surprised as this guy seems pretty sharp.

When we get past the covid outbreak hard questions will have to be asked about the analysis, handling and dissemination of the data on the pandemic from the official public health agencies. They are either being deliberately obtuse through incompetence or by design.

I would turn all the data over to the insurance industry and let their people analyze the information and present the results to the public. In the future we have to do a better job here.
Why bother looking into it?

Just cut more $5 trillion dollar checks.
 

ogealbhain

Well-known member
Not surprised as this guy seems pretty sharp.

When we get past the covid outbreak hard questions will have to be asked about the analysis, handling and dissemination of the data on the pandemic from the official public health agencies. They are either being deliberately obtuse through incompetence or by design.

I would turn all the data over to the insurance industry and let their people analyze the information and present the results to the public. In the future we have to do a better job here.
Bolded is understatement.
 

Crusaders

Moderator
If excess deaths were mostly from Covid, you wouldn't see the largest age group being under 50. We are likely grossly underestimating "lockdown deaths".
 

Stirred not Shaken

Well-known member
Europe has very strong masks mandates, continually shutting down, yet the virus is uncontrollable in lefty Europe. Once again until their is a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved, their is nothing that can be done to stop a virus unless you want to live in the PRC.
 

lc5397

Well-known member
Europe has very strong masks mandates, continually shutting down, yet the virus is uncontrollable in lefty Europe. Once again until their is a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved, their is nothing that can be done to stop a virus unless you want to live in the PRC.
They got it under control pretty quickly the first time. I have more confidence in them doing so again than I do of the US doing so.

FWIW, Europe's overall numbers are still far better the US.
 

winbypin

Well-known member
They got it under control pretty quickly the first time. I have more confidence in them doing so again than I do of the US doing so.

FWIW, Europe's overall numbers are still far better the US.

Looks like every country in these charts are experiencing new surges equal to or higher earlier in the year.

Kind of like canada.
 

lc5397

Well-known member

Looks like every country in these charts are experiencing new surges equal to or higher earlier in the year.

Kind of like canada.
Ok. They have also proven to have the ability to get it under control sooner than us. They're numbers are significantly better than ours. If the next two months follow the same pattern as the initial onset, our numbers were spike significantly higher than wherever Europe tops out at.
 
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