Dublin Coffman Rocks 2020

KramericaIndustries said:
Yeah Harry, that would have to be a dramatic Coffman drop-off if Jerome is able to flip things that dramatically with Jerome. I saw very little last night in terms of superlative athleticism or size, and they are also graduating a senior QB. It's interesting to hear that this is a pinnacle year in the Dublin schools as well, because that is ABSOLUTELY the case at most of the OLSD schools, especially Olentangy. This has been a special senior class for many schools it sounds like, and a real shame it is going to be cut short for so many of them.

Berlin/Jerome 1st half was much different than the score indicated, as is the case quite often Berlin's problems were much more about what they did to themselves as opposed to what the other team was doing. Berlin had like 280 yards in the first half and only 9 points to show for it. All 3 of their FG drives got inside the 5, on 2 of them a TD pass was dropped, and the other one saw back-to-back penalties that moved them off the goal line.

Berlin had 32 first downs in this game, let that sink in. Anyway, I know nobody is worried in D1 about Jerome this year, and I haven't seen JV the past couple years and obviously wont this year, but yeah that will be a dramatic reversal if they suddenly become a team capable of competing with Coffman. Their coach is very smart and coaches a great game with in-game decisions. But Nori and his staff made excellent halftime adjustments last night and put it together. The same defensive problems are still there, but they did do a little better in the 2nd half and only gave up one TD on a trick play.

One thing that is clear to me 4 games in now with some more play in context is that both Olentangy and Liberty are very good football teams. I still have zero idea what to make of Marysville, as their loss to Darby is rapidly becoming a larger black eye and they 3 teams they beat in Bradley, Jerome, TW are looking worse each week. We will find out more about them in the next 2 weeks.

This was my first chance to really look at the regions in depth this morning, and it seems like the Rocks should have smooth sailing into the final 4, although it is tough to know what to make of the Northmont/Springfield/Wayne trio because they haven't played anyone out of region and the quality of ball there can be questionable at times. Wayne is certainly down relative to recent years. You are also catching Whitmer on a total rebuild and they are a zero factor and usually either Centerville or Beavercreek are good, but this year it seems not. If anything, a rematch with Liberty may be a sneaky challenge. This is a region the Rocks should win.

The D2 schools got a little unlucky with the Canton/Massillon area pairing, I would much rather have seen them either in with the Toledo or Cincinnati schools. There's a lot of dead weight at the bottom of R7, but some potential challenging matchups as early as week 2 in the playoffs and that spells trouble and some good teams are going to be cut to 8 game seasons, unfortunately. The seeding process should be interesting.
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Yes Liberty gong back to R-2 wasn't a welcome sight for Coffman fans. Beating really solid programs who are well coached and have a strong Senior class as Liberty has TWICE is never an easy chore to be sure . The good news is the game was very competitive and the Rocks know this team can play . The worst loss in Rocks play-off history { Last year's loss to Springfield was most excruciating because of the way the defense played and the way Coffman moved the ball at times and still only scored three points because of some weird stuff that went into just not getting into the end zone} was 2012 when Rocks had a really good team who suddenly just started playing sloppy starting in week 8 in the second half of the Liberty game { a closer than should have been sloppy rain soaked win } then had six turnovers and a muffed kickoff giving the Bears another possession losing by 9 . Davidson rematch was next in round one and they again lost the turnover battle big and Davidson only scored when they had short fields in a brutal 17-14 loss . First game Coffman dominated 33-10 and were up 33-3 early third quarter , but this was before the stupid 30 point deficit running clock, so Davidson scored late in the game after the Rocks had called off the dogs .

PN won the region . Coffman used to scrimmage PN annually at that time and they were very evenly matched . PN lost a razor close decision to eventual champ Big Moe . Like Coffman in 2007 vs, St X they also ended the game inside the Moe 10 late but the clock ran out on them . Coffman's was more excruciating because they only needed a FG to send it to OT but tackled in bounds .

The point being like beating a Brian White coached team is really tough , so is beating the Liberty program of this latest 5-7 year era . 2014 Rocks who lost that great offensive explosion game vs Wayne who eventually went to and lost in the finals to Ed's , the Rocks controlled the action in the regular season game vs Davidson winning 24-9 . Another rematch in week 11 had most of us reliving 2012 all over again . Rocks trailed at the half , were down in the 4th before Gunnar Hoak hit Kyle Marcinick with a skinny post pattern dart and Kyle out ran the safety to the pylon with about 3 and a half minutes left . Davidson then got a 4th down conversion and then a long pass down the middle a prayer answered in tight coverage. Had a 4th down play with 10 seconds left just outside the 10 with the pass broken up in the end zone . It wasn't a warm night in early November but a ton of Rocks fans were sweating that night .

Olentangy is kicking azzz in football right now . Different styles and personality's but all really solid in what they do . " IF " The Rocks can get by Liberty again, and or Northmont and S-Field or whoever, I think they have a good even shot vs either the R-1 champ or the R-4 champ , and not having to play PC until a final game is preferable no question . I know they switched it up a bit last year and had the R-3 Champ play the R-1 champ last year for the first time , but I don't see them having the R-2 and R-3 winners playing this having the Cincy area R-4 winner playing the Northeast Ohio R-1 winner with that type of travel involved .
 
Dont get me wrong, I'm not saying that Northmont and Springfield aren't capable, I just dont know nearly as much about them or Dayton football in general, other than ever since Wayne dropped off you don't seem to hear much about them, minus Springfields run last year (where they drew some pretty easy teams before that 7-3 game with DC). Northmont's recent teams have had really bad showings in the playoffs recently with their only win being over a Darby team a few years ago that never belonged to begin with.

If Springfield didn't have big graduation losses then they could be a problem again this year. But in general they have not been a productive program this decade other than the 1 good team last year, which is normally the indication of a special class as opposed to a consistent program.

I would be shocked if they make 2 Columbus final 4 teams play each other and put cincy vs cleveland. It's hard to get a feel for whether Cincy or Cleve D1 is down more because their big programs are playing so many out of state teams still. This is one year where that isn't going to hurt them with the P.O.S. Harbin computer thrown out.
 
And that's what I'm questioning, I don't know if that result is really just the same game they played last year, maybe Northmont has gotten a little better, maybe Springfield has gotten a little worse. It seems all these Dayton teams when you throw in Wayne, Centerville, and even Springboro and Fairmont are just taking turns giving each other close games.

While that speaks to a good amount of depth, that doesn't necessarily mean any of them are ready for regional finals level of play. There's an old saying in horse racing, when you have a giant cluster of horses that all hit the wire at a similar time, there are no standout talents in there. Its indicative of a field with lots of depth but no exceptional talent.

I do know that Northmont needs to have made significant improvements to compete at the regional finals level, and will need to rise to a level they haven't been at this decade quite frankly. They lost to a Whitmer team last year by 2TDs who was not good at all (got clobbered by Coffman next week). Not going to hold a close overtime game vs either team, however, need to see something vs. a team outside the Dayton area before making any kind of assessment where these teams are.
 
Coffman didn’t exactly destroy northmont last year. But coffmans Defense played lights out they were outstanding but their offense wasn’t very impressed with again that was last year I think Coffman is probably the second best team possibly at division one With that being said I think Northmont would at least give them a fairly good test but would come up short I’d say Coffman would end up pulling away pretty good in the fourth quarter I could see a 35. To 21 type game
 
Pawpaw53 said:
Coffman didn’t exactly destroy northmont last year. But coffmans Defense played lights out they were outstanding but their offense wasn’t very impressed with again that was last year I think Coffman is probably the second best team possibly at division one With that being said I think Northmont would at least give them a fairly good test but would come up short I’d say Coffman would end up pulling away pretty good in the fourth quarter I could see a 35. To 21 type game
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Let me clarify myself that was only the Northmont gave last year I was referring to
 
Pawpaw53 said:
Coffman didn’t exactly destroy northmont last year. But coffmans Defense played lights out they were outstanding but their offense wasn’t very impressed with again that was last year I think Coffman is probably the second best team possibly at division one With that being said I think Northmont would at least give them a fairly good test but would come up short I’d say Coffman would end up pulling away pretty good in the fourth quarter I could see a 35. To 21 type game
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Week one last year Coffman offense was very vanilla , no Drennan { at Kentucky } No Threats playing running back , QB in his first start , O line wasn't set yet , so that game wasn't a great indication . But I think Northmont will be a tough out for the Rocks if they play each other. I like their transfer at QB , some high end talent and speed in some areas . Good solid team who is dangerous . Rocks are an impressive club and that's not bias speaking, BUT if they don't keep improving and working in certain areas to get better and improve their conditioning ? They won't win the region. Certainly capable of it like they were last year but some work to be done If they want to win it this year instead of coming up short.
 
No need to give a real recap of the game on a somewhat series for series basis in the Rocks -Cats game . Score tells the exact story of what happened which isn't always the case . For instance I wasn't surprised at all and picked them to win , that Tangy got a comfortable win , BUT 37-6 was a nice surprise to be sure. The disparity wasn't 31 points in terms of the teams strength though. + 3 turnover margin and kick-off return for a TD pushed the margins. In the DC-HD game the score told us everything very accurately .

Coffman never punted . They gained 542 yards . They had 30 first downs. They were balanced with 317 passing yards and 225 yards on the ground. They had the ball for 9 more minutes. They ran 30 more plays than Davidson.

Davidson had 2 first downs and one was by penalty . They were 0-8 on third down and 0-2 on fourth down . They punted 7 times . They had 64 yards of offense which was about 2 yards a carry. They had no passing yards. The only stat Davidson won was penalty's . Coffman had 80 yards of infractions and Davidson had one penalty for 5 yards . Turnovers were even . Coffman had no defensive or special teams scores and only had one short field off of a turnover . Nixon took some shots and got buried a time or two and went out in the second quarter, that didn't help matters and I hope he is OK he had the one first down and the one chunk gain .

Nixon and Weir could play and start somewhere for the Rocks {not as the lead back though} as could DE-Leo/ TE Roberts. Other than that I didn't see anyone else that could definitely start for Coffman this year .. Just one of those years , game will be very competitive next year and if Davidson can develop a better O-Line they have two very good running backs who will be mature experienced Seniors they will be favored .


Biggest mail it in and it was admitted by coach Ward was Gahanna who simply didn't show up from the beginning and then when they got punched in the mouth , walked away from the fray and packed up their tent and slinked away. 250 yard difference and they scored no points . 8 first downs . They scored 40 the week before against a good program { New Albany } albeit not in Westy C's class . WC has a good Senior class no question. Size speed some skill and experience .They have the QB . They can be a tough out for anyone without the initials PC in region 3 .

How bad is R-Burg defense ? { Young growing pains} pounded by GPM , Gahanna put up some yards but couldn't finish drives . Heck Nerk got 250 yards of offense . Loved grabbing the 15 with the Gaels in this one and they you have to be happy for them that they got over the hump and won a close game 41-40. They gained 530 yards and while they only completed 3 passes ? They went for a total of 173 yards. They gained 366 yards themselves, were just under 60 percent on third down , scored 40 points and still LOST?. Good for the Gaels to get that first win out of the way with PC on deck.

Obviously this is a season like no other , and as I have said as opposed to other years a big dynamic is how teams navigated the uneven off-season terrain and were able to get prepared and train effectively for the season. Some had more restrictions, some were more able to train in a more normal way. It has been trying for all . The other thing when you look at match-ups and try to figure things out is the everyone makes the play-offs reality.

This plays into the coaches thinking I would guess in a few ways. Now you want to have as good a record as you can I suppose for seeding purposes , especially the top tier teams , but you really lose the urgency in some of these match-ups. Do teams fight as hard as they might have if a loss means you may miss the play-offs? Do coaches not sweat as much and feel more comfortable playing more kids than they normally would ? I think it's a good thing in a year such as this to play as many kids for as many snaps as you can . Coaches may think, is that big a difference if we are a 12 seed as opposed to a 7 or 8?


Just playing at all is something to be grateful for . The first four weeks have been pretty smooth , but we all know when things are going well , complacency and a lack of previous focus can take hold . Lets hope everyone stays vigilant , focused on the fundamentals of keeping everyone healthy and able to continue the season . Kramer had a good point. I some if not many regions there will be some really good teams who will have 8 game seasons . With only three games left that are certain, there will be some match-ups that will send very good teams and programs home for good two weeks before Halloween . The normal season would have us saying , " Wow" after this week we are at the halfway mark . time flies . Well where we are now is most teams are facing the reality that there is either 3 or may be 4 games tops left . The upper echelon may have a week or two after that , but it's a small number of programs. States out west can have a winter season without too much strain , BUT the top teams with the most good players will have to face the facts that their top guys may want to enroll early to College after the New year and they won't have their difference makers . Some high end kids especially QB's have already moved to play in other states and some are planning on leaving early .

It was great to attend the games the last two weeks no question. But it isn't quite the same . No traffic , no buzz , not as much energy? Players can't even com roaring out of the locker rooms. It was pretty cold this Friday for mid September especially where our blood is still Summer thin. One of the things that I can remember going back to MS through High school is being able to go inside at Halftime to either warm up, get out of the rain { Or snow which happened a couple times } and get ready for the second half . Players are now strewn on patches of grass spaced apart where they can't even get warmed by a teammates body heat . Fast forward to a key play-off game a month or so from now where it may be windy cold and or raining hard? You get to halftime and sit still for 15 minutes shivering and getting more wet? When playing or even standing on the sideline you could move around a bit , but sitting still listening to coaches and looking at boards while your cold sweat makes you more chilled and you can't do anything to warm yourself up?

Once again the Cal Preps numbers are large. Games I am looking at in Co

Coffman - 29 at Upper Arlington - This series is very competitive in terms of the scores . Coffman has won 7 in a row but very close games in many cases. This line is crazy , but then again I said that about HD + 31 vs. the Rocks last week and that line couldn't be kept in the ballpark .

Darby - 14 vs. YOTW - The Olde Colonials { Just made that up } have fallen back to earth since their easy win vs. Nerk and their first 3 quarters vs Jerome. outscored 74-7 the last two weeks { Tangy , M-Ville}

Liberty - 23 vs. Davidson - Hopefully the Cats get Nixon back at FB. It doesn't matter in terms of who wins but rather it would help them get a few more first downs and help the defense out a bit. White knew something here . Will he coach again ?
 
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Cont.

Orange - 17 at Bradley - Seems high , Orange not that much better than UA than the score showed. { Turnovers} Bradley doesn't win they finish 1-5 { Coffman next}

Olentangy - 18 vs. Jerome - Jerome faces a different test this week , but did Tangy find out that they can throw the ball effectively? They have the personnel outside.

Marysville - 3 at Berlin - Very interesting match-up . Battering ram vs the soaring eagle. Berlin has found a run game , but can't stop that battering ram themselves .

Pick Central - 46 vs Lenkuhster- If the 2020 PC Tigers were a TV show would it be called ' Name that score" ? Or an offshoot of a couple other shows , like say instead of Survivor , it's now called NO Survivor ? Instead of 'Big Brother " it's 'EVERYONE'S Big Brother?

PN -18 at New Albany - Nothing comes to mind really , why did I list this game again?

Gahanna - 6 vs. Grove City - Does Gahanna start this assignment at a B+ Max grade for not showing up for class at all last week?
 
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It will be interesting to see what some of these better teams do after losing on week 8 or week 9. Get on the horn and schedule a 1-off with another good team? I don't think it would make much sense to come back and play a week 10 game vs a tomato can, but if I could get a Berlin/Orange game or a South/Central game or something like that, might be a unique opportunity to setup a fun matchup that wasn't previously available due to contractual obligations.
 
KramericaIndustries said:
It will be interesting to see what some of these better teams do after losing on week 8 or week 9. Get on the horn and schedule a 1-off with another good team? I don't think it would make much sense to come back and play a week 10 game vs a tomato can, but if I could get a Berlin/Orange game or a South/Central game or something like that, might be a unique opportunity to setup a fun matchup that wasn't previously available due to contractual obligations.
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That would be great if teams that got eliminated scheduled some great match-ups like the ones you mentioned. I would love to see some of those match-ups.
 
Iroquois said:
That would be great if teams that got eliminated scheduled some great match-ups like the ones you mentioned. I would love to see some of those match-ups.
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If you can play until Mid November , why not take advantage of it ? Coaches of eliminated may use the younger guys and some Two's more I would suspect , which is fine and probably the way to go . As a Coffman fan I obviously hope they are playing for more than an interesting match-up in early November .
 
In " normal" times we would be approaching the mid way point of the season . Well in this abnormal" season we are pretty much still hitting the midpoint for many teams. It is about time to give a mid -season assessment . The strongest teams are pretty much going to be assured of 8 games . We have weeks 5 and 6 to play with probably an easy no heavy lifting win in week 7 and then may be a tricky game in week 8 ? Depends on the match-up of course.

Rocks are in a place where most figured they would be right now. Jerome would be game but not have quite enough athletically to hang for 48 . Liberty would be a game they could lose if they don't execute but on paper they are slightly better than , so the close win was apt. Orange was a predictable win and Davidson is rebuilding in a new era with a legendary coach stepping down . Didn't expect that result but a comfortable win was expected.

The real challenge now is continuing to improve and get your team to a level of execution and level of play that you just are going to be too tough for anyone except a very small number of teams to beat you . A coach I talked to a few years back said something interesting to me. He said 'I want the team and the program to develop the attitude that we will be willing to work so hard and prepare so well that it will be impossible for teams to match us. To hang with us . We will get so sound that we won't be beaten . I saw a you tube video that chronicled a season in Aledo Texas which has a program a few classifications from the top in Texas that has an absurd wining culture. I hear that same refrain from their program. Don't know if the coach I talked to got that from Aledo or not , but it is a good approach.

The crux is , some programs are just willing to do things that other more common programs don't do . Even with the strongest private Catholic programs in the country who travel al over the country looking to play each other , with players coming in from a 40-50 mile radius of their school , true all star AAU like HS football programs , ALWAYS separate themselves with the 'Work" that they put into it. Without exception .

So it is what happens in the next 3-4 weeks that will determine how long a run the Rocks and other programs have . Separate , sharpen your game and prepare yourself mentally and physically to a level that will be really hard to match by only the best of the best .

Week 5 presents a few issues for the Rocks. Two lights out defensive games and outscoring teams 77 - 7 the last two weeks can make overconfidence a real possibility. UA off of a loss and with a running back who as Orange coach Schroeder said 'runs angry". I agree Gresock does indeed run that way as we saw last year as a Sophomore and has continued this year . They lost their QB to a collarbone two weeks ago so they likely lean on the 200 pound angry runner.

UA has played Westy C and Liberty very well . Rocks certainly had issues with Liberty themselves before coming back to win . No reason to be overconfident at all . But the real danger is to be flat and complacent and not prepare and improve this week in practice . You get the sense that you can't be beaten by this opponent and you lose your focus , aren't quite as sharp . For many success is harder to deal with than failure . Kids from week to week can well be kids . There is a level beyond the one that the team is at right now that needs to reached in order to win multiple play-off games and be in a position to be able to play with any opponent .

That's the challenge . To get to a point where falling behind 14-0 to start the game vs. a team like Liberty is impossible , just can't or won't happen . Get stronger physically { conditioning and strength gains needs to be continued } and mentally which will come as a result of the strong preparation . A few tangible things to play for and stay focused for are the league title and homefield for what you hope is a longer run in the play-offs. I saw that higher seeded home teams are in place to be home until the Semi-finals. Winning the league BY YOURSELF is a certainty if you just win the next two weeks . Sharing it with a team or two suks . Just focus win and get the title for yourself. Be so impressive that getting that top seed is inevitable . You can take advantage of that and have a good chance of winning the region.


Buttermore is a good coach , he can get kids and teams to play above the level they actually are . Be so sound and focused that you never let Gresock get any momentum . Kind of like the Banks kid for Whitmer last year , you never really let him get any momentum to start running downhill. SAME THING with this kid . Force them to pass and you get some picks and get a margin. Sharpen your passing game that you will need at some point , and it is clearly getting better IMO. Only three more games for certain, don't waste a performance .
 
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Week 5

Seasons moving along very quickly as it usually does even in this most different of seasons . Teams jockeying for seeds and trying to sharpen up for the play-offs . Once again a lot of heavy lines here with large spreads. This first game is one of those I think is a bit light .

New Albany at Gahanna - CP Line GL - 6

One of the things you look for when looking at the board for the next week when lines come out is teams coming off of superlative performances and others who had atrocious efforts . The adage that things are never as good as they seem in great times , or as bad as they seem when nothing is going right is something that I believe to be true. Coach speak can be sometimes misinterpreted as being less than honest at times.

You know when Lou Holtz was lisping something like , ' This Army backfield is bringing back memory's of Doc Blanchard and Glenn Davis I tell you , Mr. Inshhhide " and Mr. " Oushhide" . Or a Jim Mora squealing 'plaaaaayooofs " LOL. We make fun of some of this 'Speak ". But the crux of the matter is that any good coach has to be a realist , he has to cut through the bullchit and hype and he can see things that the average fan or spectator don't. Attempting to get closer to 60 percent than 50 when Handicapping games requires at the bare minimum an ability to see things as they really are in a unemotional way as possible. Coaches need to see that there is always things that can be improved upon and the team is never going to be truly a finished product . Perfection isn't possible , but not striving for it means you are never going to get close to it.

So coaches who are coming off of a 40 point win aren't lying when they say " You know we played very well at times BUT there are some things that we need to clean up and work on . They see things you may not and they think differently than fans .

Gahanna was flatter than a pancake that got run over by a road paver last week. They only successful thing they did was stand at attention when the national anthem was playing apparently . After that ? Getting out of their own way proved too difficult. Westy C treated their guest like a speed bump gets treated by a Mack truck{ 43-0 } . Are things that bad over there? Not really .They beat New Albany in a shootout 41-40 in a game that went to OT. They have some athletes a decent QB and a very good RB who can move the chains . GC also got run over by Westy C { 34-0 }, and the clubs played anohter common opponent in New Albany . GC lost 23-7 .

GC played PN last week and scored 24 points and gained over 300 yards losing 47-24 . Hmm , not bad , they should be able to move it vs this class of opponent then right? Not so fast . Two things that I see are the fact that a nice percentage of that yardage and points came in the 4th quarter when PN likely called off the dogs and was substituting liberally . One long pass and one 30 yard run in the 4th. And the second thing is Gahanna being more focused ,more intense to prove that last week wasn't who they are . Things aren't as bad as that . Coaches have ego's , they feel the sting of that kind of performance and take it personally . The poor performance of last week lowers the price of this game to 6 points when the 'real ' line to me is 10- 12 ? The 'bounce " back dynamic is real and teams often play well and can overperform off of a stink bomb .

Conversely , teams off of that great performance are are big favorites the next week can underperform and the price you pay if you back them can be inflated. That's what we see here I believe . Gahanna will be seriously motivated to get the stink off of them from last week's no show. GC isn't terribly disappointed getting handled like they did by PN. They played a better 4th quarter and while they feel more confident playing this club , I think they run into a more motivated better opponent only receiving a six point head start?

Not enough . Lions have a few more athletes and will play really hard this week after taking last week off.


Gahanna 27 GC 13
 
Week 5 Cont.

Olentangy Orange at Hilliard Bradley - CP Line OO - 17

Line is heavier than a thick rope after being left outside in a monsoon. Now of course I thought Liberty laying the 18 point lumber last week was cumbersome. Bradley played well at times and was in the same realm until the 4th quarter when Liberty tacked on two 4th quarter Td's to properly put the game away as good programs often do. Bradley I figured like many would be a bit better of an offensive team with Mentor's former coach coming in as OC , but that hasn't been the case. At all. Speaking of Lou Holtz , Zebbie S is talking of Bradley as a cross between Bill Walsh's west coast offense and a speeding bullet . More powerful than a locomotive , leaping defenders in less than a quarter of a bound . The QB is part Aaron Rodgers effortless arm talent , part Kyler Murray elusive . He described the offensive line as being so big and strong the Nebraska Cornhuskers O-lines of the 80's and early 90's , you know the corn and steroid fed behemoths would feel sheepish in their presence .


What would he say if this team wasn't averaging 11 points a ballgame? If they didn't get outgained by Davidson ? Now of course when the offense is said to be something that Stephen Hawking would find difficult to grasp things can be more of a process LOL . 11 POINTS a game ? With a returning QB who is smart and athletic , and TWO power five receivers and the awesome O-line? OK I'm overindulging a bit here . Bradley does have good players and has bene a solid program in the last 5-7 years. They were the last team to score more than 30 on Davidson { 2016} before Coffman's steamrolling last week , and they have had solid offenses that tested teams in all areas of the field . Until now it seems . OK last year they took a step back as well , but this was not expected..


Against the top defenses Orange has played they have had trouble moving it. Coffman held them to 99 yards, 50 on one blown coverage play . Tangy held them to 3 points and little yardage . They moved it better last week vs UA , QB Laisure is a tough competitor , a good athlete , a D-1 baseball guy . He was excellent last week going 15-18 good for 228 yards . Modest yardage advantage of about 60 yards , so the score was more turnovers than a dominant performance. Another loss that I felt I was on the right side of. Bradley had 249 yards of offense vs Liberty which is a good output and they were close until the 4th quarter . Their defense was gashed a bit { 350 yards} and eventually wilted later on giving up 38 points. Both teams don't have that solid dependable running game using their RB's . Orange lost Applegate early on adn a speedy guy after that and while they have some solid guys they don't have that same consistently productive run game.

Bradley is using a Receiver as their running back a lot of the time . Mayfield is a D-1 athlete and a talented WR but he is out of position playing RB and looks out of place there. I think Bradley gives up less points this week going up against a less versatile offense than they did last week and hangs tough and hangs in well on defense and may be the offense can get to about 17 and cover this sucker ? Good bet they can .. Can they win the game? May be .


Orange 20 Bradley 16
 
Week 5 Cont.


Ye Olde Tommy W at Darby - CP Line HD - 14

Hilliard football is a bit down this season. Two programs whose defenses have been traditionally solid , both helped by clock moving run exclusive offenses . Well both Darby and Davidson defenses have been as leaky as a slumlord buildings faucets. Darby gives up a whopping 32 a game . Yes the number is a bit skewed by having played the absurd Berlin aerial circus , and they had a turnover filled effort last week adn gave up a KO return TD which further hurts their points per game average. They have played solid teams the last three weeks which makes YOTW a sight for sore eyes . YOTW won their scrimmage vs Nerk by 30 posting a shutout. Since then ? As the punt master himself James Tressel might say , it's 'Been tough duty". Starting with the 4th quarter vs. Jerome it's been a complete domination . YOTW has been physically beaten up and beaten down. Been outscored by over 100 points in the last 9 quarters of football . Darby is off of an embarrassing chitshow last week.

37-6 wasn't the difference however. Yardage was only about 70 yards in Tangy's favor, and I mentioned the turnovers adn the KO return . Darby will be fired up to right this ship especially defensively and I feel they run it on YOTW { They have to , they can't pass of course} and may be don't take the foot off the gas or YOTW's throat . Line is low, the timing is right for a comfortable Darby win against a team caught in the wrong place at the wrong time .

Darby 34 YOTW 9
 
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Just wanted to say, been watching some tape of Marysville's Gabe Powers, and he is a terror. Seems to be the 2nd coming of Katzenmoyer and should be the top recruit in the state for 2022. Buckeye fans should be really excited about this guy if he can develop a little more speed and agility. He actually is more effective as a blocking FB than an LB right now, he is just DESTROYING players. But he wont have that same size advantage in college.
 
KramericaIndustries said:
Just wanted to say, been watching some tape of Marysville's Gabe Powers, and he is a terror. Seems to be the 2nd coming of Katzenmoyer and should be the top recruit in the state for 2022. Buckeye fans should be really excited about this guy if he can develop a little more speed and agility. He actually is more effective as a blocking FB than an LB right now, he is just DESTROYING players. But he wont have that same size advantage in college.
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M- Ville will just line up and pound it over and over again . Powers is a bit more fluid than the Big Kat . Was very impressed when played at Coffman last year as a Soph. By next year he will be a more complete package . Doesn’t have stiff hips at all but a little speed and agility training will help . He will be a three year starter for OSU
 
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Week 5 Cont.

Marysville at Berlin - CP Line M-Ville - 3

This game along with a few others on this board would be games that if there was Wagering available using these lines , I would pass on every day and three times on Sunday. Some of these games are not really bettable if given a choice. But I just pick the more interesting games in CO and have at it . This is one of those games you look at and see a few scenarios that make sense but contradicts itself. M-Ville is stronger up front. Bigger up front. They will run it with power and some speed. They have a defense that can run a little bit. They have one of the top players in the Junior class , not in the state, but in America. 6-4 , rangy with 220 pounds of power who can tackle , cover , run it and savagely be a lead blocker . He's just a football player who makes everyone else's job a bit easier , and his teammates play with more confidence. The defense has played well , except for a blip on the radar game vs Darby that no ne can really figure out.

They gave up 289 , which isn't earth shattering , but what made it head shaking was giving up 115 yards passing and 31 points. Yes they also lost the football game by 3 despite getting about 3 50 yards. What they haven't seen is this level of passing game. Berlin racks up yards on all defenses. they went for over 500 vs both Liberty and Olentangy . As Kramer would say , not exactly tomato cans. Those units are well coached and have talent . Berlin didn't care or flinch, they just kept going at them moving the ball downfield and only a few key mistakes may be kept them from getting a win in those two losses.

I don't think the new found running game of Berlin can keep chugging at the rate of the last two weeks but can the air game be slowed ? Probably not . The key is having he ball a bit more adn getting off of the field against the road grader offense of M-Ville. I have gone back and forth picking a winner in this one more than pendulum on speed. Jerome ran it well and bottled up Berlin at least on the scoreboard for a large chunk of the game . Berlin exploded in the late third through the 4th quarter. I have to think M-Ville will be a bit too tough to get off of the field here. Berlin will prosper as they always do through the air but at this moment which will surely change after I hit post reply , I will take M-Ville to win and cover by a scant margin


M-Ville 35 Berlin 31
 
Week 5 Cont.

Pickerington North at New Albany - CP Line PN - 18

At first glance the line looks heavy . The backdoor will probably be open late if PN gets a nice advantage which is where I am leaning night now. PN did give up two 4th quarter TD's to Grove City last week. NA is a solid well coached program which will keep playing until the end no matter what. Yet another game that I would not include on my card of wagered games. Number is accurate . If I think there is a good chance a game with a large spread and I like the favorite match-up wise , comes down to what happens AFTER the winner has already been decided? Automatic pass . I really believe this could be a situation where PN gets off to a sizeable lead and then starts taking their foot off the gas a bit and NA scores late to get near or under this number.

PN is a very solid team right now. The opening day result vs PC seems like a long while ago. No shame in that result with a new QB who wasn't familiar with the system , , didn't have the Centennial refugees yet , and a really really good PC defense. If PN played PC next week in a rematch 35-9 isn't happening IMO , margin would be closer to 2 scores than four. NA can be run on as they were vs. Gahanna { 237 yards over 7 yards a pop } and PN has a better O-Line and has two quality talented backs [Lawrence and Green} and a dynamic athlete at QB, the Centennial QB Gilbert who is capable of going off running the football . Too much speed and the PN O-Line is getting better . PN gets into the 30's and NA will try to match them. NA I believe doesn't have enough firepower against a motivated PN defense with momentum and a league title to play for . First since 2012 . Looks to be a really nice night for football and offense . NA gave up over 300 yards to Lancaster . A few big shots downfield and yardage on the ground. I see PN doing the same and I will hope the back door stays closed.


PN 37 NA 15
 
Completely agreed, betting any money on that Berlin game is a fool's errand. Both teams are going to score points, and in a game like that any mistakes/turnovers/penalties are greatly magnified because the other team is almost assured to score off of them. And you just never know what mistakes HS kids are going to make.

The following week is going to be interesting as well, where Tangy and Marysville have more of a strength on strength matchup that could end up being very low scoring and a very hard hitting game. Tangy will mop up Jerome this week, Jerome will not be able to run the ball at all. I don't know if my senses are dulled from watching Berlin this year, but my opinion of Jerome's QB went down quite a bit last week, he was not effective at all against what is a pretty bad pass defense.

Also, didnt previously see this, but YOTW opted out of the D1 playoffs.
 
He is going to play baseball in college { Jerome QB} , good athlete and tough kid, a really good kid , but you are right his ball placement can be inconsistent. One series he drops a few dimes , anticipates and drills balls right on target, then he has an open guy and throws one in the dirt . Footwork is inconsistent . Against Coffman he threw a few with great precision and timing , then the next series he fired a couple blanks. Yes the senses can be dulled when watching that crew. QB throws accurately and a very catchable football . great trust and CHEMISTRY with his receivers . Really fun to watch .
 
Harrycrane said:
Week 5 Cont.

Pickerington North at New Albany - CP Line PN - 18

At first glance the line looks heavy . The backdoor will probably be open late if PN gets a nice advantage which is where I am leaning night now. PN did give up two 4th quarter TD's to Grove City last week. NA is a solid well coached program which will keep playing until the end no matter what. Yet another game that I would not include on my card of wagered games. Number is accurate . If I think there is a good chance a game with a large spread and I like the favorite match-up wise , comes down to what happens AFTER the winner has already been decided? Automatic pass . I really believe this could be a situation where PN gets off to a sizeable lead and then starts taking their foot off the gas a bit and NA scores late to get near or under this number.

PN is a very solid team right now. The opening day result vs PC seems like a long while ago. No shame in that result with a new QB who wasn't familiar with the system , , didn't have the Centennial refugees yet , and a really really good PC defense. If PN played PC next week in a rematch 35-9 isn't happening IMO , margin would be closer to 2 scores than four. NA can be run on as they were vs. Gahanna { 237 yards over 7 yards a pop } and PN has a better O-Line and has two quality talented backs [Lawrence and Green} and a dynamic athlete at QB, the Centennial QB Gilbert who is capable of going off running the football . Too much speed and the PN O-Line is getting better . PN gets into the 30's and NA will try to match them. NA I believe doesn't have enough firepower against a motivated PN defense with momentum and a league title to play for . First since 2012 . Looks to be a really nice night for football and offense . NA gave up over 300 yards to Lancaster . A few big shots downfield and yardage on the ground. I see PN doing the same and I will hope the back door stays closed.


PN 37 NA 15
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Great analysis and very true stating the offense is looking way better than that first game. I too feel like the PC game would be a different outcome with this PN offense and the line play. Not saying a PN victory by any means but a game into the 4th quarter for sure. With the NA defensive scheme I look for some deep balls to wide open receivers for PN. PN defense got gashed with the GC run game and bodes well for NA running attack. PN front 7 lost a bit of their cool last week and both sides of the ball need to clean up the silly penalties and be more disciplined.
 
As we get to the last 2 weeks , teams can start thinking about league titles. This is always a yearly goal for most proud successful programs especially in this most unique of seasons, having a tangible reward for the obstacles a team endured is even more special. Sharing a title is not the same. Last year if you look at the OCC Central in terms of overall performance, margins and strength , Coffman was the best team . Lost by a point to Davidson and ended at 4-1 along with UA and Davidson . They still took the picture , they still said in unison , OCC Champs , BUT a bit hollow having to share that with two other teams in a 6 team league . League titles always matter .HOF coach Brian White and the Davidson program's FIRST goal was always the league title. If you got that he reasoned , it means you almost assuredly made the play-offs which was the next goal .

In this most trying and different of seasons winning the league title by yourselves is a real accomplishment that no one can take away from you and is something to relish .

Week 5 Cont.

Dublin Coffman at Upper Arlington - CP Line DC - 29

Bottom line is if the Rocks win the last two ballgames they win the OCC Central title by their lonesome . A trophy that signifies their talent and the work they put in preparing for this season , much of the time spent not really knowing if the season was going to happen. Going to camp days in a blistering sun that turned the turf to a smoldering heat pad ,their sweat never really drying . I remember those days . Drove by the stadium and the kids drew the short weather straw , having these practices in sweaty airless wrestling room conditions , except their was this shiny heat emitting thing in the sky that furthered their discomfort.

Backyard and garage weight sessions, which I saw happening when walking the dog or going on a Covid like excursions around town. Speed and agility work , on their own , long runs at night when it had cooled a bit like a boxer might partake in to increase endurance. Brought back memory's . We had a gym where we got a group discount, BUT a percentage of the 'work" we put in was at a few garages and basements, homemade squat racks , incline benches , flat benches, Straight bars curl bars, unlimited dumbbells . I can still feel the sweat in one of the garages , ACDC blaring , the clanging on the weights , the groan of one of our D-1 lineman as he was squatting as the rest of us kind of just kind of chuckled and kind of shook our heads at the absurdity of the weight he was using . Comforting that he was going to be blocking and pancaking some poor kid when I ran a 27 trap .

Going into this game , these are the type of things the Rocks should have in mind . The league title is right in front of you . you played the second best team first. You passed that test, you came back from the 14 point deficit and outscored a very good team by 21 the rest of the way. The work that you have put in has bene evident in your performances this season. The 'Work" has paid off , but it isn't finished . You need to take care of business tonight and next Friday at home vs Bradley and if you do you achieve a major goal of winning the league title by yourself. Not a bad thing to share a league title when you are inexperienced or less talented . But sharing it when you are the best team suks . Period.

Rocks have won 7 in a row in this series and are a 29 point favorite here . Before you start to feel smug and satisfied, you need to keep in mind the average margin of victory has bene 7.8 points , just over a touchdown. Last two years the margin has increased to 17 in 2018 , a shutout in a driving cold rain. and 14 last year . All coach has to do is point to 2012 when Coffman was undefeated and really good and had a six turnover nightmare and lost 23-14 which was UA's last win in the series . UA didn't make the play-offs that year .

Or you bring up 2014 , when the Rocks had a very talented team which was also undefeated and could play with anyone in the state . 20-19 final . UA played their azzes off , gave fanatical effort . Expect that tonight fellas . UA has nothing to lose here. You do . You can lose your outright unshared title that you have worked really hard for. Sometimes you have to look for other motivations in certain games and in this particular game there is one that sticks out like a sore thumb .

Carson Gresock , has eclipsed 100 yards in each game .he is averaging just under 150 yards . My HS defensive coordinator who went on to become a HOF HC at another program was great at motivating the defense to particular challenges and some of them were stud running backs that we needed to do something about . He was a brilliant X and O and scheme DC , BUT even better at motivating us to play better than we were. This is the type of challenge that he would relish . I know coach Cutler is certainly liking the challenge of preparing to slow down the Gresock train who runs angry . A bit shifty , somewhat fast , good feet, but most of all strong as snot and runs with an attitude. The challenge is to get into his space early , don't let him get his feet moving and gaining momentum. Gresock ran for 50 yards on 8 carries as a Sophomore last year vs the Rocks in a supporting role to Senior Chris Schweisthal who checked in with 59 yards on 16 carries.

Gresock is the leading actor this year . He will get all those carries . They combined for over 100 yards averaging 4.5 a pop.. Gresock will get the ball 25 times tonight , can you hold him to just under 4 a carry? Be the only team to hold him under 100 ? Force them to pass?

As impressive as the Rocks have been at times , there are a few things they need to work on . Speaking of forcing teams to pass ? Playing the ball in the air has improved and they have some experience back there, but they need to try to get some interceptions . Penalty's . They are more penalized than their opponents. Too many free yards. They get called for holding much more than their opponents which doesn't make a lot of sense seeing as the Rocks have a better defense than their opponents . Now last week it was skewed a bit because the O-Line was sometimes having to hold Davidson d-Lineman 6- 7 seconds . Phipps can be tough to block for when he changes direction so effortlessly . But getting a personal foul on your own extra point attempt ? Unnecessary personal fouls is not a huge deal vs overmatched teams , BUT at some point that won't be the case and those free yards can be the difference in victory or defeat.

O-Line has done well but needs to keep improving in the next 3-4 weeks. More consistently getting a good piece of kids ,not missing and relying on superior talent bailing you out . OG Ballay who was out on offense last week but still long snapped has been really solid and is needed . Tackling has been good since the first half of the Liberty game. Passing game has improved but will have to be more precise in the next few weeks when the defenses get stronger .

Long FG game hopefully gets a couple chances in the next few weeks . K Magyar has the leg , but the snap , hold and other things need to make these kicks closer . Last week they attempted a 46 yarder that missed badly shanked and short . The snap was high , the timing a bit off. Ballay was gimpy so may be that was part of it , but hopefully they can get that cleaned up and make these attempts more potentially makeable. You never know when you may need a longer FG in a tight play-off game. Need to get the snap down , not hurry the holder and throw that timing off just enough to adversely influence the kick.

29 points is absurd here . UA is better than Davidson this year. No doubt about that from what I have seen on tape or in person. Rocks were laying 31 last week and easily covered that sequoia sized lumber. UA has run the ball on solid teams , they are a well coached team that will have a good plan and the kids will compete hard and well . Rocks if and they should be motivated will win the ballgame. Defense has a big challenge in front of it and that should motivate them to play really hard. Offense has too much overall speed in this match-up . They don't rely on Threats getting 100 yards as he is averaging less than that , but also catches the ball for yardage in every game . They won't have as much time to pass in this one as they did in the Davidson game . But the same goal of getting kids in space and in favorable match-ups will be the main goal and if they can reasonably accomplish this the Rocks win somewhat comfortably but don't cover this line.


Coffman 34 UA 13
 
Week 5 Cont.


Davidson at Liberty - CP Line OL - 23

Davidson ushering in the " New Era " with a former assistant who adheres to core philosophy's that the program was built on and was outrageously successful in a pretty remarkable almost 20 year run . The last 5-6 years that dominance has ebbed and flowed a bit downward. The margins have been less in wins , the losses have ticked up a bit , and the once automatic at least two -3 play-off wins per year are looked at a bit further inn the rear view mirror , a more wistful memory of consistent excellence at the highest levels of Ohio HS big boy football . Two State titles and multiple longer runs has been the envy of most Central Ohio programs.

A new era indeed in more ways than one . The most storied of Championship football programs apex's don't go on forever. A few examples include . CB West under legendary Mike Pettine went longer than most going for a bit over 30 years . { late 60's through 2000} Famed Odessa Permian {FNL} had about a 30 year period of prominence and absurd success at the top of the Texas HS football food chain . { mid 60's - mid 90's} Even Long Beach Poly who has produced more NFL players than virtually any program in America is now merely a good program , but no longer a national power. Davidson was never considered a national power which in todays era is more about having flashy D-1 studs littering the roster. Davidson has had more than it's share of really good high school players , but not the same amount of special athletes than other top teams in Ohio.

Like Odessa Permian they were often undersized in some areas and were successful with really solid defenses adn a system that was about precision , with great attention to every small detail that if run well with just enough material and talent could be tough to stop for even the best teams for 48minutes . The option they say is a great equalizer . Well Davidson sometimes had powerful lines and a stable of talented and physical running backs. Throw in a crafty efficient QB? Really solid defenses with a few real playmakers? You can win a state title winning some games against teams whose individual parts are worth more than yours , but the collective efforts , precision and great coaching made it possible to achieve perhaps a bit over your ski's .

Year after year of having those extra practices to further your player development , momentum that keeps building , intense and fanatical community support , coaching continuity , and 1000 percent buy in from players is a powerful dynamic and it was a truly impressive if not frustrating thing to watch for other CO programs . Of course some years others were a bit better and beat them , but no one was as consistent in that sweet spot from say 2004 - 2015 . 2014 saw 6-5 But gave a very good Coffman team a tremendous scare in round one . 2015 was a nice bounce back season winning some play-off games as they eventually lost to a very good Wayne team in a good effort in very windy blustery conditions .

Since then the Cats have won two play-off games , both in 2018 , beating Wayne by a TD and Springfield by 3 , and losing to PC by a TD . So competing with top programs . Not that long ago , but somehow feels longer? Last year they did well with the talent they had no question and lost a tough ballgame to GPM in round one , a weird game that the Cats certainly could have won . 2017 was a rare non playoff year and this year they are probably two 15 yard penalty's committed by Darby on the last game winning drive from being 0-4 and looking squarely at 0-6 .

The bread and butter of Davidson besides the system and the aforementioned other dynamics is their physical brand of toughness . This toughness has caused many teams over the years to mentally quit and physically back down . This dynamic is not there this season. Coffman being faster and more physically talented and experienced was a given last week , Davidson had very little chance of winning the game given those facts.. But what wasn't a given was the physical beatdown Coffman gave them. I mean it was shocking at times. Coffman has won their share of physical battles when playing Davidson and have competed well physically over the years . BUT this was different . This was Davidson virtually winning no physical battles , getting pancaked on multiple occasions , getting steamrolled by Running backs , some who were barely 150 pounds . O-lineman getting pushed into the backfield after the snap. D-lineman not getting any semblance of a pass rush unable to get off blocks at all not counting the couple times the QB had 7- 8 seconds or more to throw and eventually they broke free a bit .


They play from the shot gun now but still are run heavy and try play action from time to time and have been successful at times. The play where Weir comes in motion gaining momentum and goes toward the post off of token play action can be a bullet in their holster . they have two good running backs and some tough kids here or there { Roberts Pepera } but this new era unfortunately has started with the least physical Davidson team I have seen in the time I have watched them which is from the start of their golden years.


Liberty is the model of consistency ,much like Coffman is , not for as long as the Rocks but are like the corporate buttoned up program that has a culture of strength and size up front , good athletes , not great most of the time , but really solid hard working kids who get the most out of their ability and the staff does a great job of coaching them up . I can't see Davidson getting any pass rush whatsoever once again . That is a problem against this passing game . If they blitz which they really almost never do OL IS SIMPLY too well coached for them not to take advantage of it downfield. OL is playing for seeding and their consistency and superior size and strength will wear down the Cats who I have no doubt will play with as much emotion and pride as they can here off of last weeks clarifying game that was a blow to the ego . too much Kenley , too much Barcus , Brecht , Magistrale , Hale , and a stout defense that will not give the much .

Most times I would look for a big bounce back type of effort in this type of game , especially when it's Davidson involved . But this year is different in a multitude of ways , and Davidson is different as well . White saw this coming obviously . Sadly after Scally took the UA job , White and he haven't spoken since . Bad way to end one era and a bad way to go into the next to say the least. Something that caught my eye a few months back in the spring was a post on the Davidson football twitter feed . It said something to the effect that there was still time to 'Join " Davidson football " hmm . Now there are kids in just about every school { Liberty with about 35 kids per class may be the exception } that are walking the halls that the football team could use and the numbers ARE DOWN around Ohio and the country . BUT that was eye opening . This tells me that the program momentum is waning a bit and that this is truly the end of one era and the start of a new one . There is work to be done obviously. This match-up won't provide any needed momentum unfortunately . 23 is heavy and it's a coin flip of who will cover,, wouldn't bet this game with money found on the ground . Liberty covers by a microscopic fiber ,or that made field goal at some point ?

Liberty 31 Davidson 7
 
Two games I was going to get to besides the name the score PC - Lancaster game were Jerome Tangy and Big Nut Westy North who are both making rare appearances in this space. Kind of out of time but here's a quick summation of the last three.

PC laying 46 is not something that I am al that interested in , but Lancaster I believe may cover it scoring late and PC probably not running it up. A few breaks here or there, Gaels could make it interesting for a bit. Rivalry game, so grabbing 46 would be the play here.

Big Nut is a 3 point favorite over Westy North. I believe that WN is a better team looking at some numbers and their overall performance . BW was down big to WS and scored a few in garbage time. WN played them to the last possession and then took care of Canal by two touchdowns . BW has been better this year as well. Westy North grabbing 3 is the play .

Jerome at Olentangy . Braves laying 18 here with their best defense in a while . Berlin Aerial circus is the only team to move it very well and score some points on this unit. Very impressive . Jerome has struggled to score on the teams with solid defenses [Coffman and M-Ville} and this is a quality defense . Hate laying this lumber , but I think Tangy may be healthier , more stout up front and should be able to throw it if the Country Clubbers move a couple into the box to slow down the run . Close on this number

Tangy 31 Jerome 10
 
Well, the whole "high school kid" thing definitely caught up with both Olentangy and Berlin tonight, just 2 incredibly awful and uncharacteristic games from each of these teams. Marysville I can at least give credit to for being a team with incredible size and toughness, and they just have wave after wave of giants that were out there destroying Berlin's kids. I think they had well over 400 yards rushing. I have no earthly idea how they would have lost to Darby (granted it was extremely fluky).

Berlin's QB went from looking like sure fire all state to being a promising sophomore. There were still a couple of those "holy " throws and plays, but there were at least 12-15 poorly thrown balls tonight, and really cant blame them on pressure or coverage. Marysville did cover well for the most part, but the complex routes were getting players open at time and it was just overthrow after overthrow and some badly off target as well.

Olentangy, on the other hand, just has absolutely no excuse for losing to this Jerome team. They fell asleep after their game last week and never woke up. Was worried about Coffman and Orange for awhile there but it looks like each came back to win. Liberty is about the only game that went as expected up this way. Back to the drawing board.
 
Suprised that Coffman struggled w/UA so much. Unexpected.
Just finished watching the Orange/Bradley game on TV. Crazy game. Two lead changes in the last 35 seconds.
Pick Central just hammered the Gales in the 1st half then just ran the clock after halftime.
Pick North really put it to New Albany. Suprised at the margin of 35 points.
 
TigerA said:
Suprised that Coffman struggled w/UA so much. Unexpected.
Just finished watching the Orange/Bradley game on TV. Crazy game. Two lead changes in the last 35 seconds.
Pick Central just hammered the Gales in the 1st half then just ran the clock after halftime.
Pick North really put it to New Albany. Suprised at the margin of 35 points.
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Very mildly surprising, even as I predicted a more comfortable win . This series is that competitive even with Coffman winning the last 8 . UA has played well against a good schedule. Lost very close ones to Westy C and Liberty. Liberty and Coffman was very competitive. Coffman is very good when at their best , but when they aren't or the opponent is executing their game plan really well ? A good team . Bradley finally scores some points , gets a lucky tipped pass right to Pugh at the end that gave them the win. Not so fast . When I heard they got hook and laddered on the scoreboard show in the last few seconds I immediately thought , 'How in the holy double hockey sticks could that happen . Then I saw the play on the news. PERFECTION . WOW . Now given the time left , may be Bradley just has a 5 player wall deeper than that pass was thrown , but the execution and timing was exquisite. Like one of those Friday night lights last plays of the game that were far fetched , not really believable . Hats off to Bradley for scoring some points and hats off to Orange for perfectly executing that play .

Wasn't able to go to the game , but have gotten some information by now that I can give some thoughts on it . First off as I said in my first post after last week , success is sometimes harder for to deal with than failure for kids and football teams. Coffman had won impressively vs Orange 28-7 giving up just under 100 yards total , and last week held Davidson to 64 yards in a 49-0 win . Probably inevitable for the kids to believe they were too good to get gashed on defense . Or be overconfident this week . everyone telling them how great they are , a lot of hype about being one of the top few teams in D-1 . Coaches have to be super vigilant about getting kids heads out of the clouds off of great wins and excellent play and the attention that may ensue.

We have all felt a bit too satisfied with ourselves at some point and I think that played a role last night . BUT lets give credit to UA who played extremely well here as they usually do against Coffman. 7 previous wins were by an average margin of 7.8 points. I did figure the Rocks would win by about 20 here . Had UA covering the absurd 29 point spread , but they exceeded my expectation . Game starts , Coffman stalls ,shanks a punt setting the Bears up and they took advantage with Gresock scoring from a few yards out. Coffman moves it right down the field methodically but gets stuffed on 4th and goal from the one yard line . UA running Gresock early and often takes a big chunk off the clock in the rest of the first half at one point missing a 35 yard field goal . Coffman couldn't do anything when they got the ball with a few minutes left in the half .

In a lightening fast half the Bears led 7-0 . UA gets the kickoff , gets a first down after a good kick return , then Gresock takes off for a 56 yard TD running right through a Rocks tackler , making a cut and was gone . 14-0 .Good news was they didn't have a long drive taking time off of the clock .

Rocks get a couple first downs adn are faced with a 4th and 1 at midfield . Threats breaks a tackle at the line of scrimmage , breaks outside and does what he does . TD 14-7 . 7.48 left third. Teams traded punts as UA continued to avoid three and outs and take time off of the clock . Rocks drive a few minutes into the 4th , and score with about 7 minutes left. in the game. Threats , Phipps and Mathews scoring on a 15 yard run were the movers and shakers.

Momentum on Rocks side, good kick coverage tackled at the 23 , but a late hit moves it 15 yard further. Rocks give up a first down but the hold .Ball back , they drive again downfield getting a first down at the 12 with a few minutes left, first play gets three so second and 7 becomes 2nd and 12 but get a delay of game penalty OFF OF A UA TIMOEUT , WTF?

Drive stalls , Magyar kicks a 31 yarder right down the middle 17-14 with 142 left. UA with a 4th and one at the 29 Gresock gets a huge gain to the 49 , under a minute left , they go backwards to the 30 , a few passes incomplete then a pick 6 to extend the score to 24-14 .

UA O-Line won the battle with Rocks D-Line , some missed tackles in the second level , good game plan by UA , but not quite enough passing may be . Rocks had Threats with 150 yards rushing but only 5 yards receiving. Mathews went for just over 100 yards rushing and about 80 passing. Game trajectory might have looked different if Rock shad tied it early on at 7-7 instead of getting stopped on 4th and one at the one after a lengthy drive. Second time Rocks have overcome a 14-0 deficit .
 
As we get towards the play-offs I see in a few spaces out here that some are judging Coffman as less than because they 'struggled " with a bad UA team . They of course don't really know what they are talking about . Bottom line is really good to even great teams have rivals and programs that lend itself to games that are going to be close and competitive and it doesn't suggest that the higher ranked team is not that good but rather there is some depth of good teams and spirited rivalry's with many well coached programs. UA is just that . New coach , but a damn good one who had a really nice game plan on Friday night. These same people ignore the teams they supports struggles against lesser teams that UA because they think they are real good or that it's a rivalry game ? ??? Well ok then .UA -Coffman is a rivalry game . Probably more so for UA , because it doesn't get any bigger for Coffman than Davidson.

Anyway this UA-Coffman series is one sided lately , but that is by final score only . These games are very competitive year in and year out . I'll go back just a handful of years here. 2013 - Coffman which started 1-3 and was losing late to Marysville before completing a pass on 4th down for a TD and hanging on . They had won five in a row to get to a do or die game vs. UA in week 10 which is where the game had been situated for a a while until this year with the new alignment. Rocks down 14-10 late needing a late drive for a TD to win and get into the play-offs did just that . Mostly on the ground with an O-Line of all first year starters who had improved as much during the season as any Coffman group I have seen ground and pounded it with a couple well times passes thrown in to score that touchdown and win 17-14 . That group's Seniors had gotten crushed in MS and as Frosh by this Senior Golden Bear Group .

2014 with a ton of people back and a really good team that played an epic back and forth game vs eventual state finalist Wayne and who could play with anyone in the state , beat a 5-5 UA team 20-19 holding on for dear life . I don't remember Wayne thinking they were a pushover because they struggled with a rival . Wayne had LOST to an underdog Centerville in a pouring rain a couple weeks earlier which was why the teams met earlier than expected . That loss didn't deter Wayne from getting to the state finals .

2015 was shootout with Coffman needing the win to secure a play-off berth . A ton of offensive talent on the field , defense not so much , Kentucky recruit and OSU back-up Gunnar Hoak and Soph. RB Gavin Sturdivant led a 38-31 win .

2016 Rocks go down 21-0 in the first half at home to the Bears . Score a late first half TD XP is blocked , 21-6 . Rocks come all the way back to win 27-21 { second TD XP blocked as well } a frenzied defensive effort led by a refuse to lose performance from now starting DT and heavyweight wrestler at Duke Ben Frye . Crazy game .

2017 Rocks like this year down 7-0 at the half . A couple turnovers and a less than fiery performance with a few key players sitting out , it looked like they would lose this one. Another shut out in the second half though and the Rocks score twice led by RB Cam Scott and TE Caleb Holcomb { Air Force } and a pick inside the 10 ended the game winning 14-7 .

2018 NO drama on a terrible night , windy cool rain , Rocks get a defensive TD from Jr. Sebastian Bramonte who picked off a screen pass and sprinted into the end zone . He was missed the next year when he and his family moved to Florida before his Senior Yr. Rocks win 17-0

2019 - Real close game, UA up early , Rocks come back at the end of the first half with a couple big plays , Threats , a few key pass completions { Yousey } and a grinding it out 28-14 win .

This year I figured the trend of more comfortable wins would continue a bit but Mr. Gresock had different thoughts and UA played ball control and held the Rocks on a 4th down from the one adn took an early 14-0 second half lead on a 56 yard , rumble by Gresock . Rocks once again as they have done often in this series shut down UA for the majority of the second half and started scoring enough to get the victory.


Easy cover of the the large spread as I predicted , but game was much closer which is never a surprise in this series . UA has played right with good teams Westy Central , Liberty and now Coffman. Gresock is a beast , O-line is solid , it's not a great defense but they held the Rocks pretty well coming up with that goal line stand and keeping the score down. Eventually Coffman started making plays and wearing them down a bit with the holes and push up front finally got going in the 4th quarter . Rocks have been a good second half team .

As I said in anohter thread, judging teams play -off chances by looking at one game that was closer than expected against a rival is very faulty .If you look just casually at a score archive you see this multiple times . Wayne example above, and PC winning a state title in a year they beat a 4-6 Lancaster team by one point , and lost to a 500 non playoff Lancaster team in 2018 when they went to the final four..


Will briefly go over the games I predicted a bit later today , but against the Cal Preps line , I had that break out week of crushing it . 9-1 . Some I had the outcomes in terms of the final score off, but had some pretty close to the margin as well. We have enough information now to see what teams are and what they are not . No team is perfect and without some weakness or aren't really strong in all areas is probably a better way to describe the upper echelon teams , with one exception. Pick Central Now they haven't been tested yet and so may be down the road we discover something , but right now they are a decently sized favorite to win their third state title in 4 years. A truly remarkable feat if they can pull it off. No real area where they aren't either really strong or pretty strong.

I will say one last thing now though to kind of tie up my main thought in this post . No one in R-2 wants to see Marysville on their side of the bracket .Unless you judge them solely by their head shaking loss to Darby that is .
 
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I'm still not 100% what to make of Marysville other than to say if you are an undersized team like Berlin is you are going to struggle greatly. These D1 schools should match up better with them size/depth-wise and I'll just again say that Berlin GREATLY underperformed in this game. Marysville broke big runs, yes, partially because they were so dominant blocking and controlling the line.

But Berlin is also the POOREST tackling team in central Ohio, there were countless plays where players were in position to make a play and should have, but didn't. If we didn't already know how bad a tackling team they are, you might credit the RBs for being able to run thru tackles, and I'm sure it was a little of both, but a better tackling defense with size is going to shut these guys down.

Defensively, if you are 1 dimensional with the run and can't handle their superior size, its going to be a long evening for you. But there's a long list of teams in R2 that shouldn't have that problem when you look at Coffman, Liberty, Northmont, Springfield, Wayne (dont know anything about Perrysburg). While some credit is due to Marysville's defense, again, Berlin's normally very reliable QB was just completely off on over half his throws, even simple ones he's made several times already this season. If you have a QB and he shows up, I think Marysville isn't that tall a task.

net-net, while a tough out and will make you black and blue, I will be surprised if they make the final 4 in this region. There are at least 6 teams that should beat them.
 
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