PeterDragon
1st Team All Yappi
Will the Reds have their second losing streak of 10 games or more? Will we win 30 games by the All Star break? Can David Bell survive this dumpster fire without taking the fall?
My answers to your 3 queries:Will the Reds have their second losing streak of 10 games or more? Will we win 30 games by the All Star break? Can David Bell survive this dumpster fire without taking the fall?
My biggest issue with Bell is that he plays favorites with people who should never see the field.My answers to your 3 queries:
1) Unfortunately I think another 10 game skid is likely, since we are at 7 now and never do very well in SF.
2) Is the All Star break in August this year?
3) Hard to blame Bell for this mess of a roster, but if you look at Cleveland, they have Jose Ramirez, but the rest of the roster is nobody. Salary is less than half of the Reds. Yet Tito Francona has them 6 games over .500 and tied for first. Bell has to get some of the blame, managers do matter.
24-46 is the worst record in the NL, only slightly better than Oakland, and you say they are competitive?The Reds are at least a competitive team. They won again last night avoiding the worst start 70 games into a season, the 1934 Reds were worse by 1/2 game, finishing one game in a tie. That team lost 99 games in a 154 game season.
I understand that, but as we know one player doesn't win baseball games. Guys like Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Will Smith, guys that the Dodgers bring along are often the difference.Yep, they "go buy a few guys". When you buy Freddie Freeman at $27M, Mookie Betts at $22.5M and Trea Turner at $21M that tends to help a lineup. They aren't just "guys", they are among the best players in baseball.
Two of them are the payroll of the Baltimore Orioles...it could be worse folks.The Reds could always try playing with six players. Those three guys are more than half the Reds total payroll.
I think this team is now equipped to not have long losing streaks because our starting pitching is so good. You'd have to have Greene, Mahle, Castillo, Ashcraft have multiple poor starts to have a double digit losing streak. Now it can happen because this team - other than yesterday - generally scores 3-4 runs or less per game, then add the bullpen woes in.My answers to your 3 queries:
1) Unfortunately I think another 10 game skid is likely, since we are at 7 now and never do very well in SF.
2) Is the All Star break in August this year?
3) Hard to blame Bell for this mess of a roster, but if you look at Cleveland, they have Jose Ramirez, but the rest of the roster is nobody. Salary is less than half of the Reds. Yet Tito Francona has them 6 games over .500 and tied for first. Bell has to get some of the blame, managers do matter.
Was chuckling watching the Mariners/Angels brawl yesterday; there were at least seven different former Reds involved.
It could be worse than being the worst team in the National League and intermittently Major League Baseball? I guess you’re right. Castellini could always move the team. We should be grateful.Two of them are the payroll of the Baltimore Orioles...it could be worse folks.
What I mean by it could be worse is the Reds could have a team payroll of $50 mill, like a few teams. Baltimore has 4 players making over 1 million dollars this season (this isn't 1993). Two guys make 7 mill. Now in their defense, they are not great, but they have 34 wins and are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.It could be worse than being the worst team in the National League and intermittently Major League Baseball? I guess you’re right. Castellini could always move the team. We should be grateful.
How is Baltimore doing by the way?
Ot could be worse than being the worst team in the National League and intermittently Major League Baseball? I guess you’re right. Castellini could always move the team. We should be grateful.Two of them are the payroll of the Baltimore Orioles...it could be worse folks.
I don’t think the Reds having a lower payroll would be worse with their current record. I think it would be a significant improvement.What I mean by it could be worse is the Reds could have a team payroll of $50 mill, like a few teams. Baltimore has 4 players making over 1 million dollars this season (this isn't 1993). Two guys make 7 mill. Now in their defense, they are not great, but they have 34 wins and are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.
That's very possible.I don’t think the Reds having a lower payroll would be worse with their current record. I think it would be a significant improvement.
I will say this, and I've said it all season, the Reds are better than their record indicates. Starting 3-22 was a killer. On paper, this team isn't as badly as it's played. Injuries have been a factor, we can't just sluff that off. The Reds have 4 guys who were expected to be major contributors this season, Votto, India, Stephenson and Senzel. Votto is hitting .213, India has played about 15% of the season, Stephenson has played well, but missed 15+ games and Senzel has been up and down and hurt.That's very possible.
Truth.I would much rather spend $50M and be the worst team in baseball than spend $120M and get the same results. The mismanagement of this season will have ramifications for many years to come.
No need to put quotation marks around "ace". Luis is clearly an ace and a great pitcher. He has just been stuck on a sh__t team. I've been reading that today may be his last start as a Red, or maybe one more this weekend. Some of the contenders are VERY excited to add a great pitcher like Luis. And on a better team he will be lights out good.Luis Castillo, the "ace" of the staff missed the first 5 weeks of the season.
No need to put quotation marks around "ace". Luis is clearly an ace and a great pitcher. He has just been stuck on a sh__t team. I've been reading that today may be his last start as a Red, or maybe one more this weekend. Some of the contenders are VERY excited to add a great pitcher like Luis. And on a better team he will be lights out good.
While I would prefer that the Reds extend him, they won't. So better to trade him now and get a lot of value back, since a team trading for him gets him with team control next year also. I'll be happy to see him perform well and get the attention he deserves on a playoff team.
I'd like to see the Reds hold onto him a month and really get some teams bidding for him. Like you, I hate to see him go, but we can really get some good talent in return. The one thing I'm critical about Castillo is can he be a big winner for a contender?? He can be dazzling, and then be puzzling as well. The whole premise of his pitching is to get you to chase balls out of the strike zone. His fastball is ok, but hittable. He needs guys to chase the change up. If he's off some or guys are patient, he can get into alot of walks.
Did you watch the game? Castillo, teetered nearly every inning. He was not sharp. Now his fastball was plus last night and it bailed him out bigtime because he struggled with command. Cubs made a base running error that helped us.Castillo mowed through the Cubs, his stuff is electric. His fastball is not "hittable", it is exceptional, it is 97-99 mph with a tail. That is why his change is lethal, because hitters have to be ready for 99. For his career the batting average against Luis is .229. And it would be .210 if you could remove April/May of 2021. I really wish the Reds would commit long term to him now. But since they won't, trade him now to get max value.
Even at 100+ mph, Greene's fastball is more hittable than Castillo's, because it is very straight. Thus he has given up 20 HR in 14 starts (Luis has given up 4 HR in 10 starts). Greene will keep learning and improving, glad to have him on the Reds, but he is not on Castillo's level.
I watched 2 innings. I was responding to your comment that his fastball was "OK but hittable". My point was not that Castillo was sharp last night, he wasn't. Yet his stuff was so good that despite his command issues, he gave up zero runs and had 11K's. Proves my point.Did you watch the game? Castillo, teetered nearly every inning. He was not sharp. Now his fastball was plus last night and it bailed him out bigtime because he struggled with command. Cubs made a base running error that helped us.
So, just for fun, what would you commit to a guy like Castillo? You willing to give him Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander money of $20 mill or more per season? Aaron Nola/ Kyle Hendricks type money $15 mill per? I'd go no more than 5 yr. $15 mill per, so that's $75 mill. I'd guess the heavy hitters in baseball will come up with more than that.
As far as Greene, I think it's not quite fair to evaluate him just yet. He's learning with each start and he's just scratching the surface. Castillo is a finished product. He's complete. So the big question is, is Castillo's best days ahead or behind him? That's what you're paying for. Reds got a good deal for him so far. They traded journeyman Dan Strailey to the Marlins for Zeek White and Austin Brice. The Reds have just under $12 mill invested in Castillo in his career. Heck of a deal. The Marlins had given up on him.
I watched 2 innings. I was responding to your comment that his fastball was "OK but hittable". My point was not that Castillo was sharp last night, he wasn't. Yet his stuff was so good that despite his command issues, he gave up zero runs and had 11K's. Proves my point.
In terms of an extension, I agree 4 or 5 years max, and I'd go $18-20M per year to get him in the top 20 starting pitchers. That is where he belongs. That gives the Reds his seasons from age 29-34, which should be the best of his career. If the Reds were trying to build a winning team, this is a good place to start. But I'm not holding my breath.