The Official 2022 Cincinnati Reds Thread

14Red

Well-known member
I'm afraid we can pull off the Jose Barrero furture SS talk. In his little time, he's not hit at all, he's hurt alot and he's currently hitting .213 in Louisville.
On the good side, Nick Lodolo today, 4 2/3 IP, 6 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 5 K's. 78 pitches - 47 strikes
 

AEW Champion

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I get you, me saying his fastball is "hittable" wasn't accurate. He's got a very good fastball, and as you pointed out, with movement. That's the key. Greene is going to have to get some movement on his fastball and I think that will come.
As far as signing him or not, it's not really up to the Reds, but the market. The Reds can go about to where you or I would go, but we both know the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies could all go more. Teams that are jockeying for playoffs, you need to have 3 above average starters to have any hope of winning it all. Can Castillo be a #2/ #3 on a contending team? Possibly.

Now, my next thought, if I'm Nick Krall, I'm packaging others to add to the deal. For instance, you want Castillo, you have to take Moustakas - I'd even kick in some money to get that done.
Why on earth would the Reds want to dilute the prospect return by making the buyer take on Moustakas’s dead contract? That makes no sense other than helping the Castellini family be cheap.

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Gh0st

Well-known member
Wonder if the Twins would be a fit for Stephenson. In clear contention due to pitching but need a bat for sure. Their catcher is hitting .202 and he’s worked with Gray before who’s on their staff and, incidentally, having a great year.
 

AEW Champion

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Wonder if the Twins would be a fit for Stephenson. In clear contention due to pitching but need a bat for sure. Their catcher is hitting .202 and he’s worked with Gray before who’s on their staff and, incidentally, having a great year.
The Twins have plenty of offensive firepower and Jeffers is only 25 years old. Plus Gary Sanchez is on the roster. They’re not in the market for a catcher.

The Twins desperately need relief pitching, and also should be in the market for one starting pitcher since their staff has incurred a bunch of injuries already this season, most notably Chris Paddack’s Tommy John surgery and Sonny Gray routinely being in and out. They definitely would want to upgrade on the likes of Dylan Bundy, who’s mostly been awful, and to a lesser extent Chris Archer. My understanding is that Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have been their only real reliable starters. Kenta Maeda will eventually join the team but possibly as a long reliever since he’ll be straight off of Tommy John surgery — and I would never count on someone immediately back from TJ to instantly be in their normal form.

Lastly, the Reds aren’t letting Tyler Stephenson go anywhere. They’d be insane to trade him.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Wonder if the Twins would be a fit for Stephenson. In clear contention due to pitching but need a bat for sure. Their catcher is hitting .202 and he’s worked with Gray before who’s on their staff and, incidentally, having a great year.
Zero reason to trade Stephenson, unless you just hate the Reds. He is a future cornerstone and very inexpensive.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
I get you, me saying his fastball is "hittable" wasn't accurate. He's got a very good fastball, and as you pointed out, with movement. That's the key. Greene is going to have to get some movement on his fastball and I think that will come.
As far as signing him or not, it's not really up to the Reds, but the market. The Reds can go about to where you or I would go, but we both know the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies could all go more. Teams that are jockeying for playoffs, you need to have 3 above average starters to have any hope of winning it all. Can Castillo be a #2/ #3 on a contending team? Possibly.

Now, my next thought, if I'm Nick Krall, I'm packaging others to add to the deal. For instance, you want Castillo, you have to take Moustakas - I'd even kick in some money to get that done.
The market has no say in the matter. Castillo is not a free agent until 2024. There is no bidding war. That is the entire reason I keep saying "extend him now".

If the Reds go Luis tomorrow and say "we love you, we want you as a Red long term, here is $72M for 4 years" he would almost certainly say yes. If he says no, he goes to arbitration next year, and maybe gets a raise from $7M to maybe $9 or $10M. For 1 year. He would be gambling big time on himself to have a great 2023, and stay healthy. Then the bidding war occurs in 2024.
 

14Red

Well-known member
The market has no say in the matter. Castillo is not a free agent until 2024. There is no bidding war. That is the entire reason I keep saying "extend him now".

If the Reds go Luis tomorrow and say "we love you, we want you as a Red long term, here is $72M for 4 years" he would almost certainly say yes. If he says no, he goes to arbitration next year, and maybe gets a raise from $7M to maybe $9 or $10M. For 1 year. He would be gambling big time on himself to have a great 2023, and stay healthy. Then the bidding war occurs in 2024.
I'm not sure I completely agree with that. If I'm the Mets/ Yankees or another contender. You could get Castillo for the rest of 22, pay his arb in 23 and then the big contract comes along. And all the Reds need is 3-4 teams to start bidding on him. He's good enough to be a difference maker for a contending team.
 

AEW Champion

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The carrot for Castillo to stay on the Reds is for them to buy out his arbitration year (2023) and replace it with a contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $80M to $90M spanning 2023 to 2026. He might still say no to that, in which case you trade him now. Hopefully the as—backward front office has already been working with Castillo’s agent on that kind of offer so they know where his head is at in advance of this trade deadline.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

wolves82

Well-known member
I'm not sure I completely agree with that. If I'm the Mets/ Yankees or another contender. You could get Castillo for the rest of 22, pay his arb in 23 and then the big contract comes along. And all the Reds need is 3-4 teams to start bidding on him. He's good enough to be a difference maker for a contending team.
Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. Trading Luis now is when he has the most value for the big boys, and thus gets the Reds the biggest return. I think you get it.

However, this is what you said on the previous page:
As far as signing him or not, it's not really up to the Reds, but the market. The Reds can go about to where you or I would go, but we both know the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies could all go more.
My response was to this incorrect comment. The market has no say. The Yankees can not offer Luis $200M for 8 years right now. The Reds hold all the cards, and should either extend Luis now as I describe above, or trade him now for max return.

But Krall will do neither, because he is a dope, and Phil C is a dope. They will do nothing, wait until the trade deadline next year, and get next to nothing in return.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
The carrot for Castillo to stay on the Reds is for them to buy out his arbitration year (2023) and replace it with a contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $80M to $90M spanning 2023 to 2026. He might still say no to that, in which case you trade him now. Hopefully the as—backward front office has already been working with Castillo’s agent on that kind of offer so they know where his head is at in advance of this trade deadline.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
100% - we are on same page. And I suspect Castillo says yes to an offer like that.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. Trading Luis now is when he has the most value for the big boys, and thus gets the Reds the biggest return. I think you get it.

However, this is what you said on the previous page:

My response was to this incorrect comment. The market has no say. The Yankees can not offer Luis $200M for 8 years right now. The Reds hold all the cards, and should either extend Luis now as I describe above, or trade him now for max return.

But Krall will do neither, because he is a dope, and Phil C is a dope. They will do nothing, wait until the trade deadline next year, and get next to nothing in return.
First of all we don't know what they will do. I think the Reds have to put it out there that Castillo is available, and let the contenders haggle over him. If we get an offer we can't refuse, then jump on it. If not, then we keep him. Win-win IMO.

Now as far as holding him until next season, sure that's a possibility, and we may actually be good next year. I envision a rotation of Castillo, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Mahle. That's a pretty good rotation to throw out there. Bullpens can be fixed pretty quickly so don't think this team can't win in the near future. The NL central isn't that good.
 

AEW Champion

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I had to look at the Reds payroll chart to remind myself that they’re paying $62.5 million this year between Votto, Moustakas, Minor, Akiyama and Whiffey Jr.

Then they’re paying more than $4M to a 31-year-old fourth outfielder on a decent or good team (Naquin) and $4.5M to a 34-year-old utility infielder (Solano) while being a rebuilding team.

Incredible mismanagement spanning many years.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

AEW Champion

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First of all we don't know what they will do. I think the Reds have to put it out there that Castillo is available, and let the contenders haggle over him. If we get an offer we can't refuse, then jump on it. If not, then we keep him. Win-win IMO.

Now as far as holding him until next season, sure that's a possibility, and we may actually be good next year. I envision a rotation of Castillo, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Mahle. That's a pretty good rotation to throw out there. Bullpens can be fixed pretty quickly so don't think this team can't win in the near future. The NL central isn't that good.
Keeping Castillo past the deadline without having him inked to a long-term deal would be a massive mistake. Trade offers for him will never be as generous as they’ll be this month. He’s the best or second best starting pitcher on the market at the deadline (Frankie Montas is the other). Keeping him just because they don’t like the return is far from a win-win.

This team will not be a winner in 2023. They’ll still owe around $45M between Votto, Moustakas and Whiffey Jr. They’ll have holes in both outfield corners, an aging first baseman, and a ramshackle bullpen that might improve somewhat with better health. Plus a bad manager. The entire goal for 2023 is to get McLain, Barrero and Williamson (among others) up to the majors and let them get used to the major league game, while giving another year of seasoning to Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, India and Stephenson. And they need to figure out if Senzel is a long-term answer in center field. I can’t envision next year’s team being a winner.

Tyler Mahle definitely needs to be traded in the next month. Same with Pham, Drury, Farmer and, if possible, Naquin.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

14Red

Well-known member
Keeping Castillo past the deadline without having him inked to a long-term deal would be a massive mistake. Trade offers for him will never be as generous as they’ll be this month. He’s the best or second best starting pitcher on the market at the deadline (Frankie Montas is the other). Keeping him just because they don’t like the return is far from a win-win.

This team will not be a winner in 2023. They’ll still owe around $45M between Votto, Moustakas and Whiffey Jr. They’ll have holes in both outfield corners, an aging first baseman, and a ramshackle bullpen that might improve somewhat with better health. Plus a bad manager. The entire goal for 2023 is to get McLain, Barrero and Williamson (among others) up to the majors and let them get used to the major league game, while giving another year of seasoning to Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, India and Stephenson. And they need to figure out if Senzel is a long-term answer in center field. I can’t envision next year’s team being a winner.

Tyler Mahle definitely needs to be traded in the next month. Same with Pham, Drury, Farmer and, if possible, Naquin.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me
Why do you think the trade offers would be best now? What's this based on? The major downside of not moving him would be if he got hurt then you couldn't trade him next year, but the key part of a trade is the teams that want him and what they are willing to give up. I don't know that that changed from 2022 to 2023. Alot can change in the next 12 months.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Reds finish June 9-18, following a 14-13 May, this is bad. Especially when you go 7-8 vs. the Diamondback/ Cubs/ Nats.

July looks extremely difficult as you are pretty much up against it until the end of the month when you get the Orioles and Marlins. Other than that you have a steady diet of Mets/ Braves/ Yankees/ Cardinals and Rays.
 

AEW Champion

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Why do you think the trade offers would be best now? What's this based on? The major downside of not moving him would be if he got hurt then you couldn't trade him next year, but the key part of a trade is the teams that want him and what they are willing to give up. I don't know that that changed from 2022 to 2023. Alot can change in the next 12 months.
The more service time the buyer is getting from the acquired player, the more it costs the buyer to acquire him. That’s just common sense. No way a team would give up a massive haul for a 60- to 70-game rental. But a year and a half drives up the cost.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

14Red

Well-known member
The more service time the buyer is getting from the acquired player, the more it costs the buyer to acquire him. That’s just common sense. No way a team would give up a massive haul for a 60- to 70-game rental. But a year and a half drives up the cost.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
Let's see what teams throw at us.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
I agree with all the discussion "if we are trading Castillo, trade him now".

More importantly, if the Reds do NOT offer to extend to Castillo, what does that tell you? It tells me the Reds are not serious about wanting to win in the next 3-4 years. Which would be incredibly sad. Lifelong fans (like me) have stopped watching/caring. I catch maybe 4-6 innings per week. If the ownership/management doesn't care, why should we?

They have an opportunity to lock up an elite pitcher in the prime of his career for 4 years or so, at a below market price. Failing to do so is a clear signal - they just want a profit, and to he// with winning.
 

AEW Champion

Well-known member
Hopefully all the Braves fans loudly doing the tomahawk chop chant in GABP right before Double A pitcher Joel Kuhnel gave up a 3-run bottle rocket HR to seal the game was a moment of embarrassment for everyone in charge of the Reds. But I doubt it. They were probably just happy to have revenue from the 28K who showed up to last night’s game (approximately half of which were Braves fans; the other half were lemmings).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

AEW Champion

Well-known member
I agree with all the discussion "if we are trading Castillo, trade him now".

More importantly, if the Reds do NOT offer to extend to Castillo, what does that tell you? It tells me the Reds are not serious about wanting to win in the next 3-4 years. Which would be incredibly sad. Lifelong fans (like me) have stopped watching/caring. I catch maybe 4-6 innings per week. If the ownership/management doesn't care, why should we?

They have an opportunity to lock up an elite pitcher in the prime of his career for 4 years or so, at a below market price. Failing to do so is a clear signal - they just want a profit, and to he// with winning.
The sad thing is, even if they make no attempt to extend Castillo, some fans will go along with it and defend it, due to a lack of understanding that organizations never have a 100 percent hit rate on developing pitching prospects. Plus even if they become solid major league-caliber pitchers, there inevitably will be injuries at some point. It’s easy to just say “We’ll have Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Phillips and Dunn, so we’ll be good” without taking into consideration the immense amount of luck it would take for all of them to pan out and stay healthy enough to turn the team into a true contender.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
I agree with all the discussion "if we are trading Castillo, trade him now".

More importantly, if the Reds do NOT offer to extend to Castillo, what does that tell you? It tells me the Reds are not serious about wanting to win in the next 3-4 years. Which would be incredibly sad. Lifelong fans (like me) have stopped watching/caring. I catch maybe 4-6 innings per week. If the ownership/management doesn't care, why should we?

They have an opportunity to lock up an elite pitcher in the prime of his career for 4 years or so, at a below market price. Failing to do so is a clear signal - they just want a profit, and to he// with winning.
I haven't watched a single inning this season.


Reds baseball has been my passion for 30 years.
I can't invest emotionally or financially into an organization that is either to stupid to field a competitive team or simply doesn't care to.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I agree with all the discussion "if we are trading Castillo, trade him now".

More importantly, if the Reds do NOT offer to extend to Castillo, what does that tell you? It tells me the Reds are not serious about wanting to win in the next 3-4 years. Which would be incredibly sad. Lifelong fans (like me) have stopped watching/caring. I catch maybe 4-6 innings per week. If the ownership/management doesn't care, why should we?

They have an opportunity to lock up an elite pitcher in the prime of his career for 4 years or so, at a below market price. Failing to do so is a clear signal - they just want a profit, and to he// with winning.
Not necessarily. The Reds likely have a "budget" figure they could pay Castillo. Now, depending on how much you value him vs. how much the league values him is the key information you have to determine. Is he a lock down top of the rotation guy that can carry you through the pennant stretch and post season, or is he a solid starter who's likely a #3/#4 starter on a contending team?

And no, just because they don't throw top money at their best players doesn't mean they don't want to win. There is a plan and you can't just play with Monopoly money like the big market teams do. I love Castillo, I HOPE they can some how keep him, BUT you have to dangle him out there to see what you can get in return. If it's not what you think it should be, then don't move him and try to sign him. Other than Tyler Stephenson, everyone else is available on the Reds current roster. Votto has a no trade so it's unlikely you can move him.

I follow the team daily and watch/ listen to as many innings I can a day.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Hopefully all the Braves fans loudly doing the tomahawk chop chant in GABP right before Double A pitcher Joel Kuhnel gave up a 3-run bottle rocket HR to seal the game was a moment of embarrassment for everyone in charge of the Reds. But I doubt it. They were probably just happy to have revenue from the 28K who showed up to last night’s game (approximately half of which were Braves fans; the other half were lemmings).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
I was at the Sat/ Sunday games and yes, there were alot of Braves fans there, but it was still mostly Reds fans. And let's spin it, I"m sure back when the Reds had good teams they'd show up at visiting ball parks, it's what people do.
There was a brief moment Saturday where the "chop" started, but lasted less than 30 seconds. Some Reds fans booed and that was pretty much it.
26K on Sat and 21K on Sunday. Pretty good weekend for attendance.

Pretty low moment Sunday, when with a 3-1 lead going to the top of 9, Hunter Strickland gave up not one, but two solo shots to tie the game. Both balls were absolutely CRUSHED - no doubters.
Fortunately, the Reds - with some help from the Braves, pushed a run across in the bottom of 9 to walk it off.

Reds offense was awful for most of the two days, first and only hit on Saturday was in the 5th inning, and one hit through 7 innings on Sunday. Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton was dealing.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Seems like a judgement based on speculation. What do you really know about his recent injury? He was impressive last night.
I"m concerned about Lodolo. it's a small sample size, but he's not been overly healthy. He was drafted in '19, pitched a little that season at the lower levels. Didn't pitch in '20 due to the pandemic. In '21, pitched 50 innings between AA and AAA, and of course this season has been spotty. So he's thrown about 100 innings total since drafted.
He looks great when he pitches, like last night, great stuff.
 

Gh0st

Well-known member
Seems like a judgement based on speculation. What do you really know about his recent injury? He was impressive last night.
What’s there to know? He had a back strain. He was good, he still threw 89 pitches in 4 2/3 and left nearly half the game to an inept bulllpen.
 

14Red

Well-known member
What’s there to know? He had a back strain. He was good, he still threw 89 pitches in 4 2/3 and left nearly half the game to an inept bulllpen.
Interesting, heard Lodolo talk yesterday and he said it wasn't his back, it was an oblique injury. Why would the club list it as a back injury all this time??
Wow, 89 pitches in 4 2/3 is a PILE of pitches.
 
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