The Official 2022 Cincinnati Reds Thread

[AEW Champion]

Well, the front office is already off to a great start, as that stooge Nick Krall put his foot in his mouth and admitted they will be reducing payroll. Which means they will likely return to their usual sub-.500 environs in 2022.

Nick Castellanos has opted out and is long gone. Tucker Barnhart traded to Detroit for a once-touted prospect who apparently underwhelmed and/or fell out of the Tigers’ plans.

Looks like another season of 5,000 in attendance next September at GABP.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[brianwr112]

May not be games at all....

 

[nd2000]

Tg

May not be games at all...

Definite work stoppage coming, hard to say how much of the season gets played.

 

[Indiandad]

Well, the front office is already off to a great start, as that stooge Nick Krall put his foot in his mouth and admitted they will be reducing payroll. Which means they will likely return to their usual sub-.500 environs in 2022.

Nick Castellanos has opted out and is long gone. Tucker Barnhart traded to Detroit for a once-touted prospect who apparently underwhelmed and/or fell out of the Tigers’ plans.

Looks like another season of 5,000 in attendance next September at GABP.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

The only way this team improves is by convincing Votto to be traded to a contender.

 

[wolves82]

I would consider Moose's 16M much more burdensome than Votto's 25M - at least Joey is very productive. But I get your point.

Interesting that Spotrac is now showing estimated salaries for the arbitration guys. Castillo goes from 4.2 to 7.5M, Winker goes from 3.2 to 7.0M, Mahle goes from 2.2M to 5.5M. I'm sure the Reds are aware of these increases and that is why Tucker is gone and they probably had to let Castellanos walk without an offer.

I have no idea if there is a creative way to get Moose off the books. He is untradeable. Maybe a crippling non-baseball injury cancels the contract or the Reds collect insurance? I'd run over him with a truck if it helps.

I'd also be looking to ship Miley.

 

[AEW Champion]

The only thing they can do with Moustakas is tell him to lose some weight, then pencil him in at DH and occasional 3B, hope he bounces back to competency, then offload him midseason to an injury-riddled team desperate for 2B/3B/DH help. Maybe they even pay some of the remaining 2022 salary as part of the deal.

Having $50M tied up by three 30-something corner players who are likely to continue to gradually decline is not a good thing.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[AEW Champion]

Here’s a possible 2022 lineup, especially since it sounds like the Reds will have little interest in free agency:

2B India
1B Votto
C Stephenson
LF Winker
SS Barrero
DH Moustakas
3B Suarez
RF Naquin
CF Senzel

Bench:
OF Akiyama
INF Farmer
C Presumably a rookie
One spot TBD (Alejo Lopez?)

That is a very weak bench and will definitely hurt if not upgraded.

Rotation:
Castillo
Gray
Mahle
Gutierrez (??)
Santillan/Miley (??) - Likely Greene or Lodolo later in the season

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[wolves82]

Here’s a possible 2022 lineup, especially since it sounds like the Reds will have little interest in free agency:

2B India
1B Votto
C Stephenson
LF Winker
SS Barrero
DH Moustakas
3B Suarez
RF Naquin
CF Senzel

Bench:
OF Akiyama
INF Farmer
C Presumably a rookie
One spot TBD (Alejo Lopez?)

That is a very weak bench and will definitely hurt if not upgraded.

Rotation:
Castillo
Gray
Mahle
Gutierrez (??)
Santillan/Miley (??) - Likely Greene or Lodolo later in the season

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Probably pretty close. But Spotrac also estimates that Naquin goes from 1.5M to 3.5M, so he may be gone also. And they estimate a Farmer increase from less than 1M to 2.25M. Man I hope we keep Farmer.

 

[brianwr112]

Cubs pick Miley up off waivers

 

[AEW Champion]

Sell the team, Bob.

Wait for the $15 beers to gouge more revenue out of whatever lemmings and hillbillies are still gullible enough to hang out at GABP next year.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[wolves82]

It is easy for the self-righteous and uninformed to whine and cry about the "cheap" ownership, see post directly above.

Facts: Whether you look at Forbes, Fortune, or elsewhere, the numbers vary a little, but most show Castellini with around $400 million net worth. Sounds like a lot, but compared to other MLB owners, he is in the bottom third. Most have net worth over a billion, and some far more than that. The fan bases with the most basis to complain are Cleveland and Detroit. Both the Dolans (5.5 Billion) and Ilitch (3.5 Billion) are in the top 5 wealthiest owners in the MLB, and they pinch pennies more than anyone.

Castellini is a pauper next to some of these guys, they have 10 times his net worth, yet the Reds payroll is average in the MLB, well over 25% of Castellini's net worth. I give him credit for allowing his management to spend and try to win the last few years. It is unfortunate his management invested in Shogo and Moose, and wasted his money. How they still have jobs is beyond me.

Do I wish the Reds could keep Castellanos, Barnhart, and other guys in the recent past? Absolutley. Am I ignorant enough to expect Castellini to go broke to make me happy as a fan? Nope.

How's that for truth?

 

[AEW Champion]

If Castelini is too poor to consistently compete, he needs to sell (which will be a massive profit, mind you) to a wealthier person who will better serve the franchise and its fanbase.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[brianwr112]

With teams normally being owned by a family with connections to the area...who do you suggest he sell to?

 

[wolves82]

FWIW the Reds did extend a qualifying offer to Castellanos. $18.44M for 1 year. That is a nice 30% raise from the $14M he made in 2021 and more than the 16M he would have made if he opted in to keep his contract. But it is expected that he won't sign and wants to be a FA. Given the labor situation, it would not surprise me if he has no contract and no team when and if spring training starts.

 

[AEW Champion]

With teams normally being owned by a family with connections to the area...who do you suggest he sell to?

I’m not plugged into the uber-rich, so I don’t have that answer for you. But I can’t imagine it would be that tough to find someone rich interested in owning a baseball team.

Give me an ownership group with Dave Portnoy as a minority shareholder.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[wolves82]

I’m not plugged into the uber-rich, so I don’t have that answer for you. But I can’t imagine it would be that tough to find someone rich interested in owning a baseball team.

Give me an ownership group with Dave Portnoy as a minority shareholder.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Also not plugged in to that group, but I do have a Google machine. Sadly there are no Cincinnati billionaires - crappy little town. A guy named Ken Oaks is worth approx 980M$ so he is close - he founded Total Quality Logistics. My preference is he focuses on that so that there are products in stores.

The only Ohio Billionaires are here: https://patch.com/ohio/cleveland/these-ohio-billionaires-are-among-richest-u-s-forbes
- Les Wexner (Columbus) is #1, but he isn't a sports guy.
- There are 3 Lerner family members but they screwed up the Browns so glad they sold to the Haslams
- York family already owns the 49ers
- McConnell family (Columbus) founded and owns my beloved Columbus Blue Jackets - I want them to keep focus there

So good luck with your campaign to find a new owner for the Reds. Be wary that an out of town billionaire might try to move them.

PS - hopefully Portnoy is either behind bars or sued into oblivion soon for his sex crimes. Perhaps you are not aware of how horrible he is. Try google for that also.

 

[zeeman]

It will be at least five years until the Reds are relevant again. If the dumb players strike they are in for a rude awakening as MLB is fading fast in popularity. Too many different and fun ways to spend for entertainment than to watch the product the Reds will be putting out

 

[14Red]

Cubs pick Miley up off waivers

good for him, and glad we didn't offer him. $10 mill was way too much.

 

[14Red]

It is easy for the self-righteous and uninformed to whine and cry about the "cheap" ownership, see post directly above.

Facts: Whether you look at Forbes, Fortune, or elsewhere, the numbers vary a little, but most show Castellini with around $400 million net worth. Sounds like a lot, but compared to other MLB owners, he is in the bottom third. Most have net worth over a billion, and some far more than that. The fan bases with the most basis to complain are Cleveland and Detroit. Both the Dolans (5.5 Billion) and Ilitch (3.5 Billion) are in the top 5 wealthiest owners in the MLB, and they pinch pennies more than anyone.

Castellini is a pauper next to some of these guys, they have 10 times his net worth, yet the Reds payroll is average in the MLB, well over 25% of Castellini's net worth. I give him credit for allowing his management to spend and try to win the last few years. It is unfortunate his management invested in Shogo and Moose, and wasted his money. How they still have jobs is beyond me.

Do I wish the Reds could keep Castellanos, Barnhart, and other guys in the recent past? Absolutley. Am I ignorant enough to expect Castellini to go broke to make me happy as a fan? Nope.

How's that for truth?

Great post, and Reds fans...do not equate spending money with winning, it generally does not work that way.

 

[AEW Champion]

Great post, and Reds fans...do not equate spending money with winning, it generally does not work that way.

I agree to a point. But last year some modest spending prior to the season to ensure a competent bullpen would have made a world of difference.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[Indiandad]

Great post, and Reds fans...do not equate spending money with winning, it generally does not work that way.

Don't be stupid. Spending does generally equate to winning.

 

[Indiandad]

I expect the Reds to go full blown Indians/Pirates and dump as many salaries as possible.

 

[wolves82]

Don't be stupid. Spending does generally equate to winning.

I'm not in the habit of agreeing with 14Red, but he has a point. Five of the top 8 teams in payroll salary - Yankees (#2), Mets (#3), Phillies (#6), Angels (#7) and Padres (#8) - have not had success recently.

But if you look at the bottom spenders (15-30) only Milwaukee (#19) and Tampa (#26) have been good. The truly terrible teams (Orioles, Pirates, Marlins, Tigers) are in the bottom 6. So certainly bigger payroll generally means better players and more success.

 

[wolves82]

I expect the Reds to go full blown Indians/Pirates and dump as many salaries as possible.

Curious as to why you think this. Have you heard / read something?

I would not be shocked if Naquin is gone, if arbitration nets him 3.5M as projected. Schrock and/or Friedl could do a nice job there. I would love it if Moose (16M) and/or Shogo (8M) could be traded, but that seems impossible. Votto, Suarez also likely untradeable, although Suarez had 31 HR and hit .350 in Sept, so a team might be smart to grab a proven power hitter under team control for 3 years with a fair price tag ($11M).

Bottom line, bad player evaluation decisions by management are costing the team big time, and handcuffing the team's options. Not sure what they can do except find some cheap bullpen help and try to get above .500 again.

 

[MyNameIsDoug?]

Curious as to why you think this. Have you heard / read something?

I would not be shocked if Naquin is gone, if arbitration nets him 3.5M as projected. Schrock and/or Friedl could do a nice job there. I would love it if Moose (16M) and/or Shogo (8M) could be traded, but that seems impossible. Votto, Suarez also likely untradeable, although Suarez had 31 HR and hit .350 in Sept, so a team might be smart to grab a proven power hitter under team control for 3 years with a fair price tag ($11M).

Bottom line, bad player evaluation decisions by management are costing the team big time, and handcuffing the team's options. Not sure what they can do except find some cheap bullpen help and try to get above .500 again.

It seems we're headed towards a rebuild, so if teams want to take on Suarez after his September, shop him as much as possible. Everything you said about him could actually fetch a decent return. I've read they're open to shopping Castillo; he's probably the best bet to bring back a very good return.

I think it may be possible to trade Votto given the year he had this year. Any contender that needs a power hitting DH could use him. Even in sacrificing OBP for power, his OPB was still .375. Might not be the best return given his age, but could still be okay from a team in win now mode.

Moose and Shogo are totally untradeable. I'm not sure who would take on their price tags given the lack of production from both. Shogo plays good defense, but that's about it.

 

[AEW Champion]

If they had traded Castellanos, Miley and Mahle last June when they were all on fire, the future of this franchise would look a lot brighter in the near future than it does right now. I’ll expand upon this later, but suffice it to say that the organizational decision-making over the past few years has made little sense given the constitution of the talent that exists/existed in the organization at those times.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[AEW Champion]

I suspect the Reds won’t be able to trade Votto or Suarez this offseason, especially if they’re looking for any return beyond it being a straight salary dump. Any prudent GM is going to want to see that the second half of 2021 for Votto wasn’t a fluke and that Suarez doesn’t immediately revert back to his negative-WAR ways. If either starts 2022 looking good, they’ll be much more tradeable at next season’s deadline.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

 

[Omar]

I suspect the Reds won’t be able to trade Votto or Suarez this offseason, especially if they’re looking for any return beyond it being a straight salary dump. Any prudent GM is going to want to see that the second half of 2021 for Votto wasn’t a fluke and that Suarez doesn’t immediately revert back to his negative-WAR ways. If either starts 2022 looking good, they’ll be much more tradeable at next season’s deadline.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

This is 100% correct. It’s painful, but it’s time to start another rebuild.

 

[Omar]

If they had traded Castellanos, Miley and Mahle last June when they were all on fire, the future of this franchise would look a lot brighter in the near future than it does right now. I’ll expand upon this later, but suffice it to say that the organizational decision-making over the past few years has made little sense given the constitution of the talent that exists/existed in the organization at those times.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

Hindsight bias. There’s no way they could’ve justified trading those 3 while they got hot right before the All Star Break.

 

[AEW Champion]

Hindsight bias. There’s no way they could’ve justified trading those 3 while they got hot right before the All Star Break.

I was calling for these trades last June. It was clear they didn’t have the horses. Frankly they got a lot closer to pulling off a playoff berth than I thought the could. But even so, the prudent decision would’ve been to sell those players and start to assemble future pieces around 2024-era cornerstones Greene, Lodolo, India, Stephenson and Barrero, which clearly is/was their next chance to have a truly good team.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …