The Official 2022 Cincinnati Reds Thread

PeterDragon

Well-known member
Will the Reds have their second losing streak of 10 games or more? Will we win 30 games by the All Star break? Can David Bell survive this dumpster fire without taking the fall?
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Will the Reds have their second losing streak of 10 games or more? Will we win 30 games by the All Star break? Can David Bell survive this dumpster fire without taking the fall?
My answers to your 3 queries:
1) Unfortunately I think another 10 game skid is likely, since we are at 7 now and never do very well in SF.

2) Is the All Star break in August this year? ;)

3) Hard to blame Bell for this mess of a roster, but if you look at Cleveland, they have Jose Ramirez, but the rest of the roster is nobody. Salary is less than half of the Reds. Yet Tito Francona has them 6 games over .500 and tied for first. Bell has to get some of the blame, managers do matter.
 

Gh0st

Well-known member
My answers to your 3 queries:
1) Unfortunately I think another 10 game skid is likely, since we are at 7 now and never do very well in SF.

2) Is the All Star break in August this year? ;)

3) Hard to blame Bell for this mess of a roster, but if you look at Cleveland, they have Jose Ramirez, but the rest of the roster is nobody. Salary is less than half of the Reds. Yet Tito Francona has them 6 games over .500 and tied for first. Bell has to get some of the blame, managers do matter.
My biggest issue with Bell is that he plays favorites with people who should never see the field.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
The Reds are at least a competitive team. They won again last night avoiding the worst start 70 games into a season, the 1934 Reds were worse by 1/2 game, finishing one game in a tie. That team lost 99 games in a 154 game season.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
The Reds are at least a competitive team. They won again last night avoiding the worst start 70 games into a season, the 1934 Reds were worse by 1/2 game, finishing one game in a tie. That team lost 99 games in a 154 game season.
24-46 is the worst record in the NL, only slightly better than Oakland, and you say they are competitive?

Clearly we have different standards. To me being "competitive" means you have a shot at a playoff spot.
 

AEW Champion

Well-known member
Mike Minor was the epitome of panic buying after the fire sale-caused fan outrage. Glad he’s blowing up in Krall and the Castellinis’ faces. Bad process and bad decisions deserve bad results.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 

14Red

Well-known member
Yep, they "go buy a few guys". When you buy Freddie Freeman at $27M, Mookie Betts at $22.5M and Trea Turner at $21M that tends to help a lineup. They aren't just "guys", they are among the best players in baseball.
I understand that, but as we know one player doesn't win baseball games. Guys like Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Will Smith, guys that the Dodgers bring along are often the difference.
 

14Red

Well-known member
My answers to your 3 queries:
1) Unfortunately I think another 10 game skid is likely, since we are at 7 now and never do very well in SF.

2) Is the All Star break in August this year? ;)

3) Hard to blame Bell for this mess of a roster, but if you look at Cleveland, they have Jose Ramirez, but the rest of the roster is nobody. Salary is less than half of the Reds. Yet Tito Francona has them 6 games over .500 and tied for first. Bell has to get some of the blame, managers do matter.
I think this team is now equipped to not have long losing streaks because our starting pitching is so good. You'd have to have Greene, Mahle, Castillo, Ashcraft have multiple poor starts to have a double digit losing streak. Now it can happen because this team - other than yesterday - generally scores 3-4 runs or less per game, then add the bullpen woes in.

There is ZERO comparison between Bell and Francona. I firmly believe Francona could win with the Reds team. He just is able to squeeze all the talent out of his players no matter what. Honestly, this isn't done in baseball, but I'd trade a couple of our young prospects (not named Hunter Greene) for Francona. The only issue I see with him is health. I just don't see him managing more than a few more years.
 

14Red

Well-known member
And interesting that Rasiel Iglesias and Winker had some words and actions. You wonder if there was issues in Cincy between those two.
Was chuckling watching the Mariners/Angels brawl yesterday; there were at least seven different former Reds involved.
 

Gh0st

Well-known member
Two of them are the payroll of the Baltimore Orioles...it could be worse folks.
It could be worse than being the worst team in the National League and intermittently Major League Baseball? I guess you’re right. Castellini could always move the team. We should be grateful.

How is Baltimore doing by the way?
 

14Red

Well-known member
It could be worse than being the worst team in the National League and intermittently Major League Baseball? I guess you’re right. Castellini could always move the team. We should be grateful.

How is Baltimore doing by the way?
What I mean by it could be worse is the Reds could have a team payroll of $50 mill, like a few teams. Baltimore has 4 players making over 1 million dollars this season (this isn't 1993). Two guys make 7 mill. Now in their defense, they are not great, but they have 34 wins and are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.
 

Gh0st

Well-known member
Two of them are the payroll of the Baltimore Orioles...it could be worse folks.
Ot could be worse than being the worst team in the National League and intermittently Major League Baseball? I guess you’re right. Castellini could always move the team. We should be grateful.
 

Gh0st

Well-known member
What I mean by it could be worse is the Reds could have a team payroll of $50 mill, like a few teams. Baltimore has 4 players making over 1 million dollars this season (this isn't 1993). Two guys make 7 mill. Now in their defense, they are not great, but they have 34 wins and are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.
I don’t think the Reds having a lower payroll would be worse with their current record. I think it would be a significant improvement.
 

14Red

Well-known member
That's very possible.
I will say this, and I've said it all season, the Reds are better than their record indicates. Starting 3-22 was a killer. On paper, this team isn't as badly as it's played. Injuries have been a factor, we can't just sluff that off. The Reds have 4 guys who were expected to be major contributors this season, Votto, India, Stephenson and Senzel. Votto is hitting .213, India has played about 15% of the season, Stephenson has played well, but missed 15+ games and Senzel has been up and down and hurt.
Luis Castillo, the "ace" of the staff missed the first 5 weeks of the season. Due to the roster changes and everyday players who've played under their expectations, this team does not score the runs needed to support the pitching deficiencies. Reds are 8-16 in June, after a promising 14-12 May.
July looks difficult on paper. You get the Braves and the Mets first off, then Tampa, the Yankees and two series vs. the Cardinals. They do finish July with 7 vs the Marlins/ Orioles.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Many probably didn't see this yesterday but up 10-9 going to the bottom of the 9th, David Bell got ejected for arguing balls and strikes....
kevin hart GIF


So after 3-22, after all of the frustrating moments this season, Bell chooses a game where he's up significantly in the 9th to get fired up????
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Luis Castillo, the "ace" of the staff missed the first 5 weeks of the season.
No need to put quotation marks around "ace". Luis is clearly an ace and a great pitcher. He has just been stuck on a sh__t team. I've been reading that today may be his last start as a Red, or maybe one more this weekend. Some of the contenders are VERY excited to add a great pitcher like Luis. And on a better team he will be lights out good.

While I would prefer that the Reds extend him, they won't. So better to trade him now and get a lot of value back, since a team trading for him gets him with team control next year also. I'll be happy to see him perform well and get the attention he deserves on a playoff team.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I'd like to see the Reds hold onto him a month and really get some teams bidding for him. Like you, I hate to see him go, but we can really get some good talent in return. The one thing I'm critical about Castillo is can he be a big winner for a contender?? He can be dazzling, and then be puzzling as well. The whole premise of his pitching is to get you to chase balls out of the strike zone. His fastball is ok, but hittable. He needs guys to chase the change up. If he's off some or guys are patient, he can get into alot of walks.
No need to put quotation marks around "ace". Luis is clearly an ace and a great pitcher. He has just been stuck on a sh__t team. I've been reading that today may be his last start as a Red, or maybe one more this weekend. Some of the contenders are VERY excited to add a great pitcher like Luis. And on a better team he will be lights out good.

While I would prefer that the Reds extend him, they won't. So better to trade him now and get a lot of value back, since a team trading for him gets him with team control next year also. I'll be happy to see him perform well and get the attention he deserves on a playoff team.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Happy Birthday to one of my favorite Reds of all time Brandon Phillips, aka Dat Dude BP.

He played the game with a smile and a flair. He hit in every spot in the Reds lineup, from leadoff to cleanup. I thought during his time he was the premier defensive 2nd baseman and got little love from voters for the gold glove, I think he did get one.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
I'd like to see the Reds hold onto him a month and really get some teams bidding for him. Like you, I hate to see him go, but we can really get some good talent in return. The one thing I'm critical about Castillo is can he be a big winner for a contender?? He can be dazzling, and then be puzzling as well. The whole premise of his pitching is to get you to chase balls out of the strike zone. His fastball is ok, but hittable. He needs guys to chase the change up. If he's off some or guys are patient, he can get into alot of walks.

Castillo mowed through the Cubs, his stuff is electric. His fastball is not "hittable", it is exceptional, it is 97-99 mph with a tail. That is why his change is lethal, because hitters have to be ready for 99. For his career the batting average against Luis is .229. And it would be .210 if you could remove April/May of 2021. I really wish the Reds would commit long term to him now. But since they won't, trade him now to get max value.

Even at 100+ mph, Greene's fastball is more hittable than Castillo's, because it is very straight. Thus he has given up 20 HR in 14 starts (Luis has given up 4 HR in 10 starts). Greene will keep learning and improving, glad to have him on the Reds, but he is not on Castillo's level.
 

14Red

Well-known member
Castillo mowed through the Cubs, his stuff is electric. His fastball is not "hittable", it is exceptional, it is 97-99 mph with a tail. That is why his change is lethal, because hitters have to be ready for 99. For his career the batting average against Luis is .229. And it would be .210 if you could remove April/May of 2021. I really wish the Reds would commit long term to him now. But since they won't, trade him now to get max value.

Even at 100+ mph, Greene's fastball is more hittable than Castillo's, because it is very straight. Thus he has given up 20 HR in 14 starts (Luis has given up 4 HR in 10 starts). Greene will keep learning and improving, glad to have him on the Reds, but he is not on Castillo's level.
Did you watch the game? Castillo, teetered nearly every inning. He was not sharp. Now his fastball was plus last night and it bailed him out bigtime because he struggled with command. Cubs made a base running error that helped us.
So, just for fun, what would you commit to a guy like Castillo? You willing to give him Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander money of $20 mill or more per season? Aaron Nola/ Kyle Hendricks type money $15 mill per? I'd go no more than 5 yr. $15 mill per, so that's $75 mill. I'd guess the heavy hitters in baseball will come up with more than that.

As far as Greene, I think it's not quite fair to evaluate him just yet. He's learning with each start and he's just scratching the surface. Castillo is a finished product. He's complete. So the big question is, is Castillo's best days ahead or behind him? That's what you're paying for. Reds got a good deal for him so far. They traded journeyman Dan Strailey to the Marlins for Zeek White and Austin Brice. The Reds have just under $12 mill invested in Castillo in his career. Heck of a deal. The Marlins had given up on him.
 

wolves82

Well-known member
Did you watch the game? Castillo, teetered nearly every inning. He was not sharp. Now his fastball was plus last night and it bailed him out bigtime because he struggled with command. Cubs made a base running error that helped us.
So, just for fun, what would you commit to a guy like Castillo? You willing to give him Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander money of $20 mill or more per season? Aaron Nola/ Kyle Hendricks type money $15 mill per? I'd go no more than 5 yr. $15 mill per, so that's $75 mill. I'd guess the heavy hitters in baseball will come up with more than that.

As far as Greene, I think it's not quite fair to evaluate him just yet. He's learning with each start and he's just scratching the surface. Castillo is a finished product. He's complete. So the big question is, is Castillo's best days ahead or behind him? That's what you're paying for. Reds got a good deal for him so far. They traded journeyman Dan Strailey to the Marlins for Zeek White and Austin Brice. The Reds have just under $12 mill invested in Castillo in his career. Heck of a deal. The Marlins had given up on him.
I watched 2 innings. I was responding to your comment that his fastball was "OK but hittable". My point was not that Castillo was sharp last night, he wasn't. Yet his stuff was so good that despite his command issues, he gave up zero runs and had 11K's. Proves my point.

In terms of an extension, I agree 4 or 5 years max, and I'd go $18-20M per year to get him in the top 20 starting pitchers. That is where he belongs. That gives the Reds his seasons from age 29-34, which should be the best of his career. If the Reds were trying to build a winning team, this is a good place to start. But I'm not holding my breath.
 

14Red

Well-known member
I get you, me saying his fastball is "hittable" wasn't accurate. He's got a very good fastball, and as you pointed out, with movement. That's the key. Greene is going to have to get some movement on his fastball and I think that will come.
As far as signing him or not, it's not really up to the Reds, but the market. The Reds can go about to where you or I would go, but we both know the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies could all go more. Teams that are jockeying for playoffs, you need to have 3 above average starters to have any hope of winning it all. Can Castillo be a #2/ #3 on a contending team? Possibly.

Now, my next thought, if I'm Nick Krall, I'm packaging others to add to the deal. For instance, you want Castillo, you have to take Moustakas - I'd even kick in some money to get that done.
I watched 2 innings. I was responding to your comment that his fastball was "OK but hittable". My point was not that Castillo was sharp last night, he wasn't. Yet his stuff was so good that despite his command issues, he gave up zero runs and had 11K's. Proves my point.

In terms of an extension, I agree 4 or 5 years max, and I'd go $18-20M per year to get him in the top 20 starting pitchers. That is where he belongs. That gives the Reds his seasons from age 29-34, which should be the best of his career. If the Reds were trying to build a winning team, this is a good place to start. But I'm not holding my breath.
 
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