Struthers will not be anywhere near D6. Not in 4 years. Not in 6 years. Not in 10 years. That’s a guarantee! They may not even drop to D5...
I checked, but it looks like Yappi deleted my post from a couple years ago. Would’ve been before the Lordstown shutdown, but after OHSAA started doing competitive balance. But had projected enrollments for every NE8 school broken down year by year until like 2030. I think I also looked at Canfield and Howland. I also may have looked at Salem and West Branch.
I did spend the last couple days documenting the base enrollment and competitive balance modifiers for both football and basketball of every school in the Mahoning Valley. From Austintown Fitch to Heartland Christian. Since OHSAA started doing competitive balance in 2017-2018.
Niles’s base enrollment actually increased in that time, going from 299 in 17-18 and 18-19 to 310 in 19-20 and 20-21. +11
Hubbard also increased, from 239 to 256. +17
And Lakeview went from 230 to 231. +1
Everyone else is down.
Poland went from 259 to 240. -19
Girard went from 255 to 227. -28
Struthers went from 239 to 218. -21
Jefferson went from 230 to 188. -32
And South Range went from 188 to 156. -32
Also...
Fitch is down, 653 to 549.
Boardman is up, 508 to 551.
Harding is down, 580 to 506.
Howland is down, 343 to 330.
Canfield is down, 361 to 321.
West Branch is down, 352 to 351.
Salem is up, 237 to 243.
Ursuline is up, 177 to 183.
And Mooney is down, 195 to 149.
East was at 482 in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019. OHSAA’s website doesn’t have numbers for Chaney until 2019-2020. Even though East made the D4 football playoffs and Chaney was playing basketball in 2018-2019. Not sure why.
The most recent base enrollment numbers were 288 for Chaney and 287 for East.
I’m still trying to make sense of the competitive balance rules and numbers and everything. But I have that information saved as well.