Yeah I’m sure by B trev has the enrollment numbers that we can use. I would be very surprised. But if they’re saying that round Hubbard odds are it’s 1000000000% false.
I don’t remember the exact numbers off the top of my head, but I doubt very strongly that Struthers gets anywhere near D6 in the foreseeable future. Depending how the divisions are broken down, Struthers could drop to D5 in football and D3 in basketball as soon as the upcoming 2021-2022 school year.
It’s been a couple years... but I actually posted the projected enrollments for each NE8 school through like 2029-2030. I don’t know if that post is still on here, though. If I remember correctly...
South Range was expected to stay around the same... the idea that they’re growing didn’t match the enrollment numbers at all. They’ll likely stay on the bubble between D5 and D6.
I don’t think I had the numbers for Jefferson, but if next year is going to be their last in the NE8 then it really doesn’t matter.
Struthers was supposed to drop a little bit, which is yet to be seen, and then stay about the same for several years. With a couple larger than average classes coming along every few years. I think there’s a really good chance that they drop down a division next school year.
I think Girard was expected to take a big drop after the Mark Wade class graduated. That hasn’t happened yet either. Like with Struthers, there’s also a good chance that Girard will drop to D5.
Lakeview should also drop to D5, but it probably won’t be for a couple more years.
Poland should be in D4 for a couple more years, then they should be on the bubble for a couple years, but then should drop fast. Like around 2025 or so. I remember being a little surprised at the possibility that Struthers could have a larger enrollment by then.
Hubbard will always be a stable D4 because of open enrollment. And at times on the bubble between D4 and D3.
And Niles should remain D3 for the foreseeable future, but might drop to D4 at some point... like 6 years from now.
I think those numbers were figured before OHSAA started implementing competitive balance, and it’s very tough to accurately predict those modifiers. But I don’t think 7/8 of the NE8 have ever had a CB modifier higher than 7... I know they’ve never had a CB modifier in double digits. Hubbard is the exception... their CB modifier has been in double digits every year and probably averages around 20.
Also, I think OHSAA has been using the same base enrollment numbers for 3 years now instead of the standard 2. At least it feels like they have.
Lastly, I think those numbers were determined before the Lordstown shutdown. That may have sped up the declines in some areas.
I’ll try to find my original post from a couple years ago. It might have been purged from the site when Yappi changed formats.
