Harrycrane
Well-known member
The NFL playoffs consist of only 13 games. There is not much value in point spreads for the most part and the value is probably best seen in player props and may be in game betting. Lines are sharp and there sometimes can be value where the public overreacts to what they last saw or some really public teams where a kind of tax is put on top of the power rated number.
TB was probably overrated getting only 2.5 and of course it's the GOAT tax. I originally liked TB because it appeared that the Cowboys may have peaked a bit and Dak was really error prone down the stretch. The problem was Tampa was not lying when they showed us who they were all season. I think the Carolina scoring explosion threw some people's perception and gave them more value than it deserved. The adage that you should believe people when they show who and what they are pertains to football teams as well to a point. Football is a week-to-week sport where wild fluctuations in performances can occur. Now that being said, certain issues that have shown themselves over 4 months are likely to crop up again at some point. Brady is a statue. He couldn't move that well in his 20's. He is just a sitting duck at this point. He is like the boxer who can't fire punches as readily because he is afraid of being hit. Brady's interception in the end zone was telling of his current state of play. Game was 6-0 Dallas, and the Bucs were driving inside the 10. Brady back peddles and instead of stepping into the throw even if his intent was to throw it away, he backs away completely, and halfheartedly throws the ball more concerned about getting hit as he literally turns away from a hit that didn't actually come. This body language caused his throw to be weak and not even get out of the end zone and was picked. HUGE turning point and a bad look for Brady. Those looks didn't get much better as the night went on.
Dallas was simply the better team and looked it. Power rating wise the difference was actually about 5.5-6 so a tease was plausible for me but Dallas played to win by a FG or less than 9 I thought had some value but the Boys played above their recent level and the Bucs were terrible really. The Niners with a rookie QB are a short favorite over this team and I think they are getting a bit shorted all due respect to Dallas, but they just beat a below 500 team albeit on the road, a team that isn't in the play-offs if they are in just about any other division in football. SF has a full two days and some change more time to rest and prepare than Dallas does. The Sunday games are epic. Cincy and Buffalo and SF-Dallas. No offense to Jax- KC and Philly -Giants but they do pale a little in comparison from a what is more interesting perspective. You feel a bit like JAX isn't really good enough to be in the final 8 and may be the Giants aren't either. Thye are close and both did well when they needed to and got big wins, but the Eagles will play real defense unlike the Vikings and Jax doesn't really match up too well with KC who has been on a mission of sorts after their second half and OT choke job as big favorites over the Bengals.
Currently re-watching the two TV games Coffman played that I recorded. That first drive vs. UA was a killer. Pushing them around and driving and turn it over. Big thing for the Rocks in the off-season to me is elevating their passing game and having more explosive plays generated. Rare year where basically all the teams were rebuilding a bit this past year and are bringing back a lot of experience the upcoming year. The Rocks have some good players back who did some impressive things during the year. As far as their opponents, the Rocks are going to be playing some experienced guys and some talented kids with some reps under their belt. I think each OCC Central team will be better versions of themselves than last year's editions.
TB was probably overrated getting only 2.5 and of course it's the GOAT tax. I originally liked TB because it appeared that the Cowboys may have peaked a bit and Dak was really error prone down the stretch. The problem was Tampa was not lying when they showed us who they were all season. I think the Carolina scoring explosion threw some people's perception and gave them more value than it deserved. The adage that you should believe people when they show who and what they are pertains to football teams as well to a point. Football is a week-to-week sport where wild fluctuations in performances can occur. Now that being said, certain issues that have shown themselves over 4 months are likely to crop up again at some point. Brady is a statue. He couldn't move that well in his 20's. He is just a sitting duck at this point. He is like the boxer who can't fire punches as readily because he is afraid of being hit. Brady's interception in the end zone was telling of his current state of play. Game was 6-0 Dallas, and the Bucs were driving inside the 10. Brady back peddles and instead of stepping into the throw even if his intent was to throw it away, he backs away completely, and halfheartedly throws the ball more concerned about getting hit as he literally turns away from a hit that didn't actually come. This body language caused his throw to be weak and not even get out of the end zone and was picked. HUGE turning point and a bad look for Brady. Those looks didn't get much better as the night went on.
Dallas was simply the better team and looked it. Power rating wise the difference was actually about 5.5-6 so a tease was plausible for me but Dallas played to win by a FG or less than 9 I thought had some value but the Boys played above their recent level and the Bucs were terrible really. The Niners with a rookie QB are a short favorite over this team and I think they are getting a bit shorted all due respect to Dallas, but they just beat a below 500 team albeit on the road, a team that isn't in the play-offs if they are in just about any other division in football. SF has a full two days and some change more time to rest and prepare than Dallas does. The Sunday games are epic. Cincy and Buffalo and SF-Dallas. No offense to Jax- KC and Philly -Giants but they do pale a little in comparison from a what is more interesting perspective. You feel a bit like JAX isn't really good enough to be in the final 8 and may be the Giants aren't either. Thye are close and both did well when they needed to and got big wins, but the Eagles will play real defense unlike the Vikings and Jax doesn't really match up too well with KC who has been on a mission of sorts after their second half and OT choke job as big favorites over the Bengals.
Currently re-watching the two TV games Coffman played that I recorded. That first drive vs. UA was a killer. Pushing them around and driving and turn it over. Big thing for the Rocks in the off-season to me is elevating their passing game and having more explosive plays generated. Rare year where basically all the teams were rebuilding a bit this past year and are bringing back a lot of experience the upcoming year. The Rocks have some good players back who did some impressive things during the year. As far as their opponents, the Rocks are going to be playing some experienced guys and some talented kids with some reps under their belt. I think each OCC Central team will be better versions of themselves than last year's editions.