Last night's Saints - Dolphin's game had a decided pre-season feel to it, as there was just a visceral difference in level of play. Tua is not getting people to admit they underestimated him. Umm how so? He was always pretty accurate, was well coached at the college level in terms of preparation and his mental make-up is good. Still has the same limitations and is a dink and dunk QB whose team asks him to complete most of his passes for limited yardage and to please not turn the ball over. Line moved over 7 points during the week. Grabbed the Fins laying a short number on the Book news. Was easier than I thought. Nice win for the guys.
19-26 for 198 respectable 7.6 an attempt with a TD and a pick. 91 Passer rating. Team had a solid if unspectacular run game and they have a stud rookie Waddle who seems to be like a Davante Admas is to Rodgers at times. Dolphins defense has really picked it up, but the roster of QB's and teams they have played the last 6 weeks is less than spectacular. Defense with a cover 0 blitz every down shut down Lamar and the Ravens who even then were limited by injury's, beat the Texans and Tyrod Taylor next. Almost forgotten Joe Flacco and the mighty Jets were next on the chopping block. Beat them by a TD. i would imagine that half of casual NFL fans might have guessed Flacco was sitting on a beach somewhere sipping an expensive cocktail counting his money from that massive contract the Ravens overpaid him with after the SB win. [ I called that one the next day as being a contract that would be an albatross}. Dumpster fire Carolina and Cam Newton/ PJ Walker were next up and dispatched. The Immortal Mike Glennon and the horrible Giants were next and Glennon is still in the league why? It's not because of what he does on the field obviously.
Jets and Wilson were then dispatched and last night Ian Book provided the big challenge. In other words, there is no need to revise your thoughts on Tua at all. He can be a good solid QB in this league and win games. What he isn't is a top 5 pick stud who can carry you if need be. He throws accurate out and slant passes, doesn't throw a ton of picks and is also a limited athlete and arm talent. This winning streak doesn't change my opinion. Not sure why it does for others. Good kid and has done a good job as the Dolphins were as bad as it gets there for about 4-5 weeks. Nice turnaround, but this hasn't been a Tua revelation. He's the same guy, the competition has waned, and the defense has been very good and improved. Tua is about what we think he is. I never thought he couldn't win games, especially looking at the last 6 weeks. These two weeks will be a bit more revealing. At Tennessee and then they host the Patriots in the last game. Looking at the UNDER in the Tenn- Miami game. It's 41.5. Hoping it will go up. Ian Book isn't an NFL QB. Head to South Bend every year, if possible, for a game or two. Have seen Book play in person a few times. Remember an ND fam asking me about Book's NFL potential. Let's just say if last night was an early indicator? I was right. If he was a baseball player, he would be a career double AA guy who is good in mentoring the younger 'Real " prospects.
Arizona has faded the last three years in the second half of the season under Kingsbury. Trend that can't be ignored. Murray is about 5-9 200 pounds. He seems to wear down and when he doesn't do well? Or isn't really sharp? The team loses more than it wins. 27-43 for a paltry 245 yards. 5.7 an attempt is low, and the 86 PR is lower than an elite QB needs to beat a decent team. The Colts were ripe with double digit starters out by game's end. And while he did run for 74 yards on only 4 attempts, the Cards don't have the traditional run game. WR Green only had one catch for 22 yards. Wentz wasn't great but more efficient [8 yards an attempt, 113 PR} and of course he has Jonathan Taylor. Cards appear to be a non-factor in the play-offs.
Carolina is a mess. Sam Darnold is simply not a viable NFL franchise QB. Hate to say that because he is such a good kid who you want to succeed. Not everyone can be as fluid or gifted with the rhythm, timing and fluidity of Rodgers, Mahomes and a Montana back in the day. But he is clunky, doesn't have that timing and fluidity, an innate feel in the pocket and a lack of accuracy that comes with throwing the ball on time, in rhythm. Hard to describe sometimes, but you know it when you see it or don't see it. Joe Burrow obviously has that feel and timing. he's fluid and balanced. 15-32 for 190 ? 66 PR ?
Speaking of not being an elite top level NFL franchise guy. Baker may be out in Cleveland. He simply isn't the answer. He isn't getting better. He is in fact regressing. Can't turn the ball over as much as he does and be the guy. I wish it was better for the Browns, having friends who are fans and living here. But the roster is too good to be where they are and Baker is not only not helping, but he's also hurting the effort.
Rodgers and Baker both had lower 6 yards an attempt outings and Baker had a great run game, so what was the difference? Rodgers with no picks and Baker with 4 which could have easily been 5 or 6. Packer's defense dropped an easy throw that would have ended the game up two scores. Browns then scored quickly after and then Davante Adams had a rare drop on third down that would have ended the game as well. Browns got it back and then the controversial pick [Jersey gran happened but this wasn't called on some Packers receivers on a few occasions that I saw during the game. Many opined that it was the NFL version of the crime of the century. It wasn't. Browns simply don't have the right guy pulling the trigger. They have most of the other pieces.
Jimmy G has a lot of critics. Some of it is unfair and he is a solid guy most of the time and the Niners clearly aren't as good when he is out. BUT his two picks vs Tennessee were THE difference in that ballgame, and both were terrible in terms of where they were committed [One took 3-7 points AWAY from his team} and one set up a very short field and GAVE the opponent points. Ballgame. He had the better team, but those two plays gave life to the Titans, and they took advantage. Nice 9.2 an attempt 322 yards, BUT the two really bad throws [Not unlucky tipped balls or dropped pass deflections, these were two really poor bad throws} were fatal.
Speaking of fatal. The Charger's run defense is going to a fatal flaw that will kill them. Herbert like Jimmy G had some nice numbers with 9.6 and attempt, high completion percentage, but two bad picks with one being returned for a TD spelled doom. Well, that and the gashing they receive defending the run. Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, two ex-Patriots had big days. Texans Burkhead went for 150 [7 YPA} and the Rams Michel went for 130 [5 YPA} . The Rams knew they needed to run the ball more to control games and be more physical. Michel has really helped with that. Akers is reportedly getting closer to a possible return for the Rams at RB? Interesting. Stafford wasn't good. Three picks and a 47 PR. Lower yards per attempt and a less than solid and efficient 21-37.
Vikings simply find ways to lose games. Good knack for it. Cousins certainly outplayed Stafford by a wide margin really, but no Dalvin Cook and the Rams rushed for 100 yards more than the Vikings did.
College futures [Win totals} bit the dust so to speak, hit a couple bigger ones but lost a couple units overall. NFL looks very good though as we look to cash pretty big and win overall in our football future win plays. Got some early lines but the limits at that time in what you can wager are lower. So we got the early numbers but also played at the later number at higher limits as well. Patriots went from 9 to 9.5. Got a taste at 9 but grabbed the 9.5 thinking they really had a great chance to win 10. KEY play just like the Patriots UNDER was last year as the guys know.
The beat Jax this Sunday, the ticket cashes. Getting the Jets and Jax at UNDER 6 were other key plays. Both will cash although the Jets 'Could" conceivably push if they win the last two to finish 6-11. Not happening. [Play Tampa and Buffalo} So 3-1 seems definite right now. Browns OVER 9.5 was an early number that went up eventually to 10.5. Hedged a bit lately to negate that loss a bit. Two than hang in the balance are the Colts and Saints, Got Indy OVER 9 and the Saints at UNDER 9.5 early at a lower limit, but grabbed them a bit more at 9. Saints' loss last night was huge. No need to hedge. Saints can win 9 and push the one and we win the other IF they win the last two. Hedge could take place as they play the wretched Panthers and then the Falcons on the road. The Colts at wins now seem a pretty safe bet to get to 10 and cash. Home vs. the Raiders who still have play-off hope isn't a lock but at Jax the next week certainly looks like it. So best case is 5-1 which is really good. 4-2-1 worst case if Saints win both.
A few bowl games today that are interesting. A few plays look OK. Still getting some later information.