D3 Region 12 Thread

From TriState Football.com:

The cards may be stacked against them but If you are looking for a dark horse team to win a regional championship keep one eye on McNicholas. The Rockets will be challenged from the get-go with the move up to Division III, Region 12, having to replacing 11 of their 22 starters as well as running the gauntlet of a grueling schedule. As daunting as that all sounds, come November, we believe McNick will be a legitimate contender to capture a regional crown, the first for the program since 2010.

McNicholas returns five starters on offense and six on defense. Those who are back are very accomplished and polished players. “We have experience and better depth at key positions, but we have to replace a nucleus of seniors that graduated,” head coach Mike Orlando says.

The jump up to Division III, Region 12 from a loaded and deep Division IV, Region 16 that features Alter, Wyoming, Clinton-Massie, Indian Hill, New Richmond and Valley View (who has won the last two Division V, Region 20 championships) may not be a bad thing for the Rockets. Region 12 sees four of its top seven seeds from the 2023 playoffs, all get bumped up to Division II, Region 8 – Badin, Trotwood-Madison, Mount Healthy and Butler. McNick will have a far better chance of winning the title in Region 12 than they would have had in Region 16.

Last season McNicholas lost six contests to teams that were a combined 69-14 (.821 winning %). Three of those defeats were by one, three and three points. With a schedule that includes seven schools that finished last season above .500 the Rockets are going to be more than battle-test when the postseason starts. They will have seen it all. McNick couldn’t ask for more opportunities to seize. This could be a special campaign.

Division III, Region 12
2023 RECORD: 6-6, 3-2 GCL Co-ed
COACH: Mike Orlando (76-65 at McNicholas, 13 years; 76-65 overall)

HONOR ROLL
Braden Bobo
, Sr, QB – A model of consistency and the fuel that powers the Rockets offense. Bobo was named OPSWA Division IV Third Team All-Ohio after throwing for 2,240 yards and 28 touchdowns. He also ran for 439 yards and four scores. Bobo has amassed 5,099 yards of total offense (4,391 pass, 709 rush) and accounted for 60 touchdowns (52 pass, eight rush) in his career.

Bo Tobin, Sr, DL – A fierce competitor and key component on the Rockets d-line. Tobin tallied 50 total tackles, had four-and-a-half sacks and an interception on his way to OPSWA Division IV Honorable Mention All-Ohio accolades as a junior.

Blaize-Voelker-7-Bo-Tobin-85-McNicholas-615x475-1.jpg

McNicholas LB Blaize Voelker (7) & DL Bo Tobin (85) (photo from: rogerbaconathletics.org)
Blaize Volker, Sr, LB – A Second Team All-GCL Co-ed performer as a junior, Volker is back for his third year as a starter. He has 137 total tackles and two sacks in his career.

Nate Colyer, Sr, WR/DB – One the top pickpockets in Southwest Ohio. Colyer was named First Team All-GCL Co-ed after snaring five interceptions and registering 51 total tackles in 2023. He has nine interceptions in a Rockets uniform.

Jack Mayer, Sr, LB – Teams with Volker to make a formidable linebacking core. An Honorable Mention All-GCL Co-ed selection as a junior Mayer has 106 total tackles, two sacks and four pass breakups at the varsity level.

Jack-Mayer-McNicholas-2.jpg

McNicholas LB Jack Mayer (photo from: rogerbaconathletics.org)
OTHER RETURNEES
Rollie Gabriel
, Sr, K – Back for his fourth year to handle kicking duties, Gabriel has been a model of consistency on special teams. He has connected on 131/138 extra points and 10/17 field goals for 161 points in his career.

Brady Gardner, Sr, DT – A healthy Gardner will provide a boost to the defensive line.

Brandon Sizemore, Sr, OL – The anchor and senior leader of the offensive line. The young Rockets linemen will look to Sizemore for Friday night guidance.

A.J. Gundler, Sr, WR/DB – A two-way starter, all signs point to a big senior season on offense for Gundler. Last fall, he had 13 receptions, 246 yards receiving, three touchdown catches, 16 total tackles and two interceptions.

Caleb Naumann, Jr, RB – One of the TriState Football Breakout Performers For 2024

PLAYOFF HISTORY

(15 appearances, 16-15) – 2023, 2022, 2021, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010 (Regional Champion

In addition the Rockets added two Juniors from St. X who saw some action with the Bombers as Sophomores and an undefeated Frosh team 10-0 (now Sophomores) from which several starters and depth is likely.
 
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Definitely will be a different feel losing several playoff teams to different divisions. Badin in particular has been a top team in this region for the last few seasons. I tend to agree with your rankings, thinking Bellefontaine, CJ, Wapak, Tipp City, St. Mary's, and perhaps Bellbrook have the best chances to win R12.
Bellbrook starts the season @ Tipp and @ Bellefontaine. Should have a pretty good idea how they fit into the R12 pretty quickly.
 
From TriStateFootball:

It’s a great time to be a Tippecanoe football fan. In the last three seasons the Red Devils have been regional champions once and in the regional semifinals on two other occasions. The program is now reloading on a yearly basis. It’s all about the “next man up” and “your time has come” for head coach Matt Burgbacher’s new cast of hungry and ready to prove themselves players. Burgbacher and his staff get to challenge the kids to raise the bar higher than those who came before them and that is a great position to be in, for everyone.

Division III, Region 12
2023 RECORD: 10-3, 8-1 MVL Miami Division
COACH: Matt Burgbacher (44-16 at Tippecanoe, five years; 125-49 overall; 15 years)

HONOR ROLL
Jackson Davis
, Sr, WR/RS – The coaching staff has the not so terrible quandary of figuring out how many ways and how many times they can get the ball into the hands of play-making Davis on Friday nights. A First Team All-MVL (RET) selection as a junior Davis reeled in 28 receptions for 375 yards and three touchdowns. He also averaged 25.8 yards on 12 kickoff return yards.

OTHER RETURNEES
Logan Butera
, Sr, QB/RB – Whether it is at quarterback or running back, all signs point to Butera busting out. He ran for 384 yards and three scores as a junior, including 100 yards in Week 10 against Xenia followed up by a career high 116 yards rushing versus Western Brown in the first round of the playoffs.

Rylan Caldwell, Sr, RB – A healthy Caldwell will get his fair share of opportunities to run the ball. In 12 varsity games, over two seasons, he has 288 yards and one touchdown rushing.

Carson Hughes, Sr, RB – Like Caldwell, this is “Seize the Day” time for Hughes. Along with classmates Caldwell and Butera this could be a very entertaining three-headed monster to watch out of the Tipp backfield.

Will Strong, Jr, WR/RS – A solid varsity debut saw Strong reel in 16 catches for a modest 103 yards receiving. More explosiveness is on the way. Look for Strong to be one of the Red Devils top big-play threats.

Bryson Singleton, Sr, OL – A returning starter on an offensive line that helped pave the way for the Red Devils to rack up 334.0 yards of total offense per game in 2023.

Alex Shellhammer, Sr, OL – A returning member of a group up front that helped a balanced Tipp offense find the end zone 55 times (31 rush, 24 pass), a year ago.

Ian Bickert, Sr, OL – Teams with classmates Singleton and Shellhammer to bring stability and leadership along the o-line.

Chris Preece, Sr, DL – Who says size matters? The 5-foot-9, 165-pound Preece, flat out, gets it done. His game is a great compliment to Martin on the Tipp d-line. Preece recorded 43 total tackles, four tackles for losses and one forced fumble as a junior.

Jeffrey Martin, Jr, DT – The sky is the limit for 6-foot-4, 275-pound Martin who will be one of the best d-linemen in the MVL over the next two seasons. He recorded 15 total tackles and recovered a fumble in 2023.

Gavin Newburg, Sr, LB – The leader of the Tipp defense. Newburg, who comes from great football pedigree, has all-state potential. He tallied 55 total tackles, had three tackles for losses and forced fumble last fall.

Gavin-Newburg-Collin-Isaac-Tippecanoe-615x475-1.jpg

Tippecanoe LB’s Gavin Newburg (21) & Collin Isaac (photo from X: @tippfb)
Collin Isaac, Jr, LB – The upside is tremendous for Isaac who is the Red Devils top returning tackler. He had a breakout campaign with 72 total tackles, a sack and three-and-a-half sacks in 2023. Isaac was a wrestling state qualifier in the 150-pound weight class as a sophomore.

Ethan Couch, Sr, OLB – Teams with Isaacs and Newburg, making the linebacking core one the Red Devils strengths. Couch was in on 28 total tackles, had two-and-a-half tackles for losses, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery as a junior.

Riley Nicholls, Sr, S – Brings much-welcomed experience and leadership to the secondary. Nicholls gets his shot at being a ballhawk.

C.J. Bailey, Jr, K – Bailey is a real asset on special teams. He connected on 23/28 extra points and 3/4 field goals (long of 37-yards) for 32 kicking points as a sophomore. A standout on the basketball court, the athletic Bailey could also make an impact on offense and defense, as well.

NEWCOMERS
Larkin Thomas
, So, QB – Will battle Butera for the starting quarterback spot. Thomas has the physical tools and mental make-up to be a very good signal-caller in this league over the next three seasons.

Xavier Melton, Jr, RB – There should be enough carries to go around out of the backfield for Melton to make his presence felt. He ran for his first varsity touchdown last season versus Greenville.

PLAYOFF HISTORY
(17 appearances, 16-17) – 2023, 2022 (Regional Champion), 2021, 2020, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2002

2024 SCHEDULE
Fri – 08/23/24 – BELLBROOK (8-4 in 2023) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 08/30/24 – FAIRBORN (4-7) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 09/06/24 – at Greenville (0-10) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 09/13/24 – PIQUA (2-8) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 09/20/24 – at Troy (11-2) – 7:00 PM
Th – 09/26/24 – BUTLER (9-3) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 10/04/24 – at Sidney (5-6) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 10/11/24 – at West Carrollton (2-8) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 10/18/24 – STEBBINS (4-7) at Fairborn (2-8) – 7:00 PM
Fri – 10/25/24 – at Xenia (5-6) – 7:00 PM
 
Bellbrook starts the season @ Tipp and @ Bellefontaine. Should have a pretty good idea how they fit into the R12 pretty quickly.
Strong OOC schedule for Bellbrook. I like how they'll challenge themselves early. They'll also play VV in Week 3 as well.
 
After 4 weeks how are we feeling about favorites to win the region?

To me Wapak and Tipp are the clear top 2 teams in the region, closely followed by CJ, McNick, Bellbrook and St. Mary’s. London might be 4-0 but the teams they have played are a combined 1-15!!!!

This Tipp team very well could be better than the team that went to state 2 years ago, their QB is on pace to break every throwing record as a sophomore.

If I had to rank the top contenders to win the region it would be
1A- Wapak (#7 AP Poll)
1B- Tipp (#3 AP Poll)

2- Bellbrook
3- St. Marys
4- McNick

5- CJ
6- Celina
7- Bellefontaine
8- London
 
After 4 weeks how are we feeling about favorites to win the region?

To me Wapak and Tipp are the clear top 2 teams in the region, closely followed by CJ, McNick, Bellbrook and St. Mary’s. London might be 4-0 but the teams they have played are a combined 1-15!!!!

This Tipp team very well could be better than the team that went to state 2 years ago, their QB is on pace to break every throwing record as a sophomore.

If I had to rank the top contenders to win the region it would be
1A- Wapak (#7 AP Poll)
1B- Tipp (#3 AP Poll)

2- Bellbrook
3- St. Marys
4- McNick

5- CJ
6- Celina
7- Bellefontaine
8- London
9/27 will be a big night for the region
London vs. Bellefontaine and McNick vs. CJ
 
Agree that Tipp and Wapak seem like the clear top two so far. I'd give the edge to Tipp so far; their win over Bellbrook was more impressive than Wapak's over SM. IMO. Wapak has a great offense this year, but their usually stout defense has some holes. Plus they had a very reliable, distance kicker last year, but seem to be unable to make a field goal this season. Small things, but might matter in the playoffs. CJ, the London-Bellefontaine winner, and Bellbrook are right in the mix too.
 
I believe mcnick will win, because of their strength of schedule. Late playoff runs are usually dependent on player availability and season ending injuries. I'll take mcnick
 
London has looked very, very impressive on the scoreboard. Being a dominant team against a combined 1-15 record so far is less impressive though. You gotta figure that Tipp, Bellbrook, Wapak, and others could've managed the same feat with that slate. Also concerning that London still has two more teams on their schedule currently 0-4. I think London could definitely be a contender; we'll get a much better measuring stick in week 6 against Bellefontaine.
 
London has looked very, very impressive on the scoreboard. Being a dominant team against a combined 1-15 record so far is less impressive though. You gotta figure that Tipp, Bellbrook, Wapak, and others could've managed the same feat with that slate. Also concerning that London still has two more teams on their schedule currently 0-4. I think London could definitely be a contender; we'll get a much better measuring stick in week 6 against Bellefontaine.
as i said, week 6 will be very telling.
 
I think it’s a three man race between London, Tipp, and Wapak. Wapak should finish 10-0 unless they have an absolute meltdown, Tipp and London both have great shots at 10-0 as well, but they do have some tough games ahead. I could see Tipp dropping one to either Butler or Xenia
 
London has looked very, very impressive on the scoreboard. Being a dominant team against a combined 1-15 record so far is less impressive though. You gotta figure that Tipp, Bellbrook, Wapak, and others could've managed the same feat with that slate. Also concerning that London still has two more teams on their schedule currently 0-4. I think London could definitely be a contender; we'll get a much better measuring stick in week 6 against Bellefontaine.
London's weak schedule likely will come back to.haunt them.

They'll face.an Ohio State QB and that WR who conveniently moved in but other than that.....I just don't they'll be pushed enough to continually get better to be a legit player in D3
 
London's weak schedule likely will come back to.haunt them.

They'll face.an Ohio State QB and that WR who conveniently moved in but other than that.....I just don't they'll be pushed enough to continually get better to be a legit player in D3
I think they should beef up their out of conference schedule and try to schedule more D3 teams or even some D2 teams. I don’t know if the CBC enforces crossover games, I’m not going to lie and act like I know anything about that conference because I don’t, but they should try to use Week 4 and 5 and schedule some better opponents. But I do think they still look like a legit team who can win the Region!
 
No love for the WBL I see
i think Wapakoneta is firmly in the #3 spot. I think if they played tomorrow, London and Tipp beat Wapak. it will be interesting to see how the seeding works out and who will see who at what point in the bracket. I think Tipp City vs Wapak would be an entertaining game.
 
London's weak schedule likely will come back to.haunt them.

They'll face.an Ohio State QB and that WR who conveniently moved in but other than that.....I just don't they'll be pushed enough to continually get better to be a legit player in D3
This is exactly what Tipp’s problem was while in the CBC. Easy to go 9-1 or 10-0 against mostly bad competition/smaller schools. Tipp’s ability to win playoff games and be a legit contender came with moving to a tougher conference + playing Bellbrook week 1 of every year.
 
I don’t think McNick and especially CJ should be slept on. CJ has faced a tough schedule, they gave Tipp a run for their money last season and can run that dang ball better than anyone.
I believe CJ plays McNick in the GCL opener. That should be a good match up. Last year the Rockets shut down the running game and CJ had no answer (no passing game) 35-0 final. McNick has been even better against the run so far this season (Roger Bacon -19 rushing last week) with pretty much the same group. Looking forward to that game in Dayton.
 
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I think this is McNicks year to make a run. They are having a good season and I think they will win the coed. Having a senior QB helps.
 
Here is Drew Pasteur rankings for R12 after 4 weeks:

1. #30 Wapakoneta (4-0)
2. #57 Tippecanoe (4-0)
3. #68 St Marys Memorial (2-2)
4. #75 London (4-0)
5. #80 Archbishop McNicholas (3-1)
6. #94 Bellbrook (3-1)
7. #131 Celina (3-1)
8. #151 Bellefontaine (3-1)
9. #158 Chaminade Julienne (2-2)
10. #204 Wilmington (2-2)

Playoff projections:

Region 12 playoff projections​

Updated Sun 15-Sep-2024 01:13 AM
Week 4 complete

Top 4 host two playoff games
1. Tippecanoe (10-0) 34.40
2. Wapakoneta (10-0) 27.20
3. Archbishop McNicholas (9-1) 27.13
4. Bellbrook (9-1) 26.60

Top 8 host a playoff game
5. London (10-0) 23.25
6. Miami Trace (8-2) 20.40
7. St Marys Memorial (8-2) 19.10
8. Wilmington (7-3) 17.60

Top 16 qualify for playoffs
9. Bellefontaine (7-3) 16.35
10. Chaminade Julienne (6-4) 16.15
11. Batavia (6-4) 13.80
12. Celina (7-3) 13.15
13. Hughes (5-5) 11.37
14. Western Brown (5-5) 10.15
15. Carroll (5-5) 9.75
16. Franklin (5-5) 9.50
 

Here is Drew Pasteur rankings for R12 after 4 weeks:

1. #30 Wapakoneta (4-0)
2. #57 Tippecanoe (4-0)
3. #68 St Marys Memorial (2-2)
4. #75 London (4-0)
5. #80 Archbishop McNicholas (3-1)
6. #94 Bellbrook (3-1)
7. #131 Celina (3-1)
8. #151 Bellefontaine (3-1)
9. #158 Chaminade Julienne (2-2)
10. #204 Wilmington (2-2)

Playoff projections:

Region 12 playoff projections​

Updated Sun 15-Sep-2024 01:13 AM
Week 4 complete

Top 4 host two playoff games
1. Tippecanoe (10-0) 34.40
2. Wapakoneta (10-0) 27.20
3. Archbishop McNicholas (9-1) 27.13
4. Bellbrook (9-1) 26.60

Top 8 host a playoff game
5. London (10-0) 23.25
6. Miami Trace (8-2) 20.40
7. St Marys Memorial (8-2) 19.10
8. Wilmington (7-3) 17.60

Top 16 qualify for playoffs
9. Bellefontaine (7-3) 16.35
10. Chaminade Julienne (6-4) 16.15
11. Batavia (6-4) 13.80
12. Celina (7-3) 13.15
13. Hughes (5-5) 11.37
14. Western Brown (5-5) 10.15
15. Carroll (5-5) 9.75
16. Franklin (5-5) 9.50
Not a fan of the projected Drew has,
Current
Rank
Rated
W-L
ID #Mailing CitySchoolCurrent
Average
Level 1Level 2L2 divisor
(current)
14-01534Tipp CityTippecanoe9.100023.033.5100
24-01616WapakonetaWapakoneta8.450022.029.5100
34-0320DaytonArchbishop Carroll6.900023.011.5100
43-11022Washington Court HouseMiami Trace6.875015.530.0100
53-1184BellbrookBellbrook6.650016.026.5100
63-1164BataviaBatavia6.325014.527.0100
74-0892LondonLondon5.925021.55.5100
83-1188BellefontaineBellefontaine5.575017.512.0100
93-1330CelinaCelina5.350016.013.5100
103-1998CincinnatiArchbishop McNicholas5.150014.016.5100
112-21012St MarysSt Marys Memorial4.65009.024.0100
123-11664Mount OrabWestern Brown4.550016.05.5100
132-2352DaytonChaminade Julienne4.425011.515.5100
142-2608FranklinFranklin3.650010.011.5100
152-21714WilmingtonWilmington3.475011.56.0100
162-2742CincinnatiHughes3.275010.56.5100

Tipp and Wapak and McNic are very likely to remain unbeaten and at the top. Tipp does have a couple tough matchups against Butler and Xenia to end the year but i think they will pull it out. London also could remain unbeaten but those 2nd level points will really hurt them at the end of the year. I could see Bellbrook(loss to Alter), Bellefontaine(loss to London) and Miami Trace(loss to Jackson) all finishing 8-2
 
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