AEW Champion’s Power Rankings and Playoff Predictions

[AEW Champion]

The ACC is now a confirmed one-bid league. Miami either wins the ACC title or they’re out. Similarly, the Big 12 SHOULD be a one-bid league, but it would be interesting what would happen with BYU if they go 12-0 but then lose the Big 12 title game.

LSU, Iowa State and Pitt are eliminated from at-large consideration after losses yesterday.

The politicking is going to get intense since the SEC has six playoff-caliber teams all sitting at one or two losses:
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

Should we really be putting in a one-loss Indiana or Penn State or BYU over most of those teams? NO!!!!

My updated Top 12:

Byes:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Colorado

First round:

12. Boise State at 5. Oregon
11. Ole Miss at 6. Alabama
10. Penn State at 7. Georgia
9. Tennessee at 8. Notre Dame

First teams out:
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. BYU
16. Clemson

 

[Cedar_Point]

The ACC is now a confirmed one-bid league. Miami either wins the ACC title or they’re out. Similarly, the Big 12 SHOULD be a one-bid league, but it would be interesting what would happen with BYU if they go 12-0 but then lose the Big 12 title game.

LSU, Iowa State and Pitt are eliminated from at-large consideration after losses yesterday.

The politicking is going to get intense since the SEC has six playoff-caliber teams all sitting at one or two losses:
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

Should we really be putting in a one-loss Indiana or Penn State or BYU over most of those teams? NO!!!!

My updated Top 12:

Byes:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Colorado

First round:

12. Boise State at 5. Oregon
11. Ole Miss at 6. Alabama
10. Penn State at 7. Georgia
9. Tennessee at 8. Notre Dame

First teams out:
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. BYU
16. Clemson

Who do you have losing to Texas in the SEC title game?

 

[wolves82]

The ACC is now a confirmed one-bid league. Miami either wins the ACC title or they’re out. Similarly, the Big 12 SHOULD be a one-bid league, but it would be interesting what would happen with BYU if they go 12-0 but then lose the Big 12 title game.

LSU, Iowa State and Pitt are eliminated from at-large consideration after losses yesterday.

The politicking is going to get intense since the SEC has six playoff-caliber teams all sitting at one or two losses:
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

Should we really be putting in a one-loss Indiana or Penn State or BYU over most of those teams? NO!!!!

My updated Top 12:

Byes:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Colorado

First round:

12. Boise State at 5. Oregon
11. Ole Miss at 6. Alabama
10. Penn State at 7. Georgia
9. Tennessee at 8. Notre Dame

First teams out:
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. BYU
16. Clemson

I'm sure you agree that a 3rd loss eliminates any team. Your post is not forward-thinking.

Somebody is losing the Georgia/Tennessee game. Someone is losing the Texas/Texas A&M game. Somebody is losing the SEC championship game. Key games below. At least two and possibly 3 of these teams end up with 3 losses. Which means bye-bye.

- Bama has: @ Oklahoma, Auburn
- Ole Miss has: @ Florida, Miss State
- Georgia has Tennessee and GA Tech
- A&M has: @ Auburn, Texas
- Texas has: @ Arkansas, Kentucky, @ A&M
- Tennessee has: Georgia, @ Vandy

 

[Hammerdrill]

I predicted at the beginning of the season that ND would be undefeated. Clearly they effed that up, but we can all see now how realistic that was. That said they sit here with one loss, to a MAC school and are in position to be in the playoffs ahead of teams who have played a much tougher schedule. I mean even Boise played the #1 team. Having said all of that I’m not sure the teams that get left out are appreciably better than ND. Props to ND for figuring a way in, while not playing in a conference and playing a weak schedule too.

 

[14Red]

The ACC is now a confirmed one-bid league. Miami either wins the ACC title or they’re out. Similarly, the Big 12 SHOULD be a one-bid league, but it would be interesting what would happen with BYU if they go 12-0 but then lose the Big 12 title game.

LSU, Iowa State and Pitt are eliminated from at-large consideration after losses yesterday.

The politicking is going to get intense since the SEC has six playoff-caliber teams all sitting at one or two losses:
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

Should we really be putting in a one-loss Indiana or Penn State or BYU over most of those teams? NO!!!!

My updated Top 12:

Byes:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Colorado

First round:

12. Boise State at 5. Oregon
11. Ole Miss at 6. Alabama
10. Penn State at 7. Georgia
9. Tennessee at 8. Notre Dame

First teams out:
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. BYU
16. Cl

I predicted at the beginning of the season that ND would be undefeated. Clearly they effed that up, but we can all see now how realistic that was. That said they sit here with one loss, to a MAC school and are in position to be in the playoffs ahead of teams who have played a much tougher schedule. I mean even Boise played the #1 team. Having said all of that I’m not sure the teams that get left out are appreciably better than ND. Props to ND for figuring a way in, while not playing in a conference and playing a weak schedule too.

They (the networks and CFP committee) will do everything in it's power to put ND in the playoffs. This is a TV show, it should be called the CFP invitational tournament.

 

[AEW Champion]

If Indiana gets pummeled by Ohio State, how do you put them in the CFP?

What’s their best win? Washington?

Their road wins would be UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State.

Their resume is empty if Ohio State kills them.

 

[AEW Champion]

I'm sure you agree that a 3rd loss eliminates any team. Your post is not forward-thinking.

Somebody is losing the Georgia/Tennessee game. Someone is losing the Texas/Texas A&M game. Somebody is losing the SEC championship game. Key games below. At least two and possibly 3 of these teams end up with 3 losses. Which means bye-bye.

- Bama has: @ Oklahoma, Auburn
- Ole Miss has: @ Florida, Miss State
- Georgia has Tennessee and GA Tech
- A&M has: @ Auburn, Texas
- Texas has: @ Arkansas, Kentucky, @ A&M
- Tennessee has: Georgia, @ Vandy

If UGA takes a third loss — especially if that loss is in the SEC title game — they can and should still make the playoffs. A commanding night win at Texas and a demolition of Clemson (plus a potential night win at Tennessee) would give them big wins that virtually no other resume could stand up against.

Would you really put 11-1 Indiana with zero Top 25 wins — and zero wins over anyone EVEN CLOSE to the Top 25 — in over a team that smashed Clemson, Texas and possibly Tennessee?

 

[BHS83]

If UGA takes a third loss — especially if that loss is in the SEC title game — they can and should still make the playoffs. A commanding night win at Texas and a demolition of Clemson (plus a potential night win at Tennessee) would give them big wins that virtually no other resume could stand up against.

Would you really put 11-1 Indiana with zero Top 25 wins — and zero wins over anyone EVEN CLOSE to the Top 25 — in over a team that smashed Clemson, Texas and possibly Tennessee?

Just to clarify, the game is in Athens.

 

[14Red]

If Indiana gets pummeled by Ohio State, how do you put them in the CFP?

What’s their best win? Washington?

Their road wins would be UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State.

Their resume is empty if Ohio State kills them.

I'm an Indiana fan and I can see exactly what you are saying and this has been my contention for years. The rankings have 4 big ten teams in the top 5. Now honestly, do you really think any of these teams would have 0 or only 1 loss if they played in the SEC??? Now I hope like heck that Indiana can not only give the Buckeyes a game but possibly beat them, but a blowout puts them on the bubble.
Here is my fallacy with the current setup. There are too many teams in conferences, thus you can't evaluate properly. Indiana is a case in point, they did not play Penn State or Oregon, so outside of a depleted Michigan team, beating Washington and Nebraska is their best wins so far. Now they've decisively beaten all their opponents except Michigan, but how do you evaluate that.
Can you penalize Indiana for not getting an opportunity to play an Oregon or Penn State? Many have valued Ohio State's narrow win over Nebraska with Indiana domination of the Cornhuskers. Is that fair or do we need to look at HOW teams won?

 

[Hammerdrill]

I'm an Indiana fan and I can see exactly what you are saying and this has been my contention for years. The rankings have 4 big ten teams in the top 5. Now honestly, do you really think any of these teams would have 0 or only 1 loss if they played in the SEC??? Now I hope like heck that Indiana can not only give the Buckeyes a game but possibly beat them, but a blowout puts them on the bubble.
Here is my fallacy with the current setup. There are too many teams in conferences, thus you can't evaluate properly. Indiana is a case in point, they did not play Penn State or Oregon, so outside of a depleted Michigan team, beating Washington and Nebraska is their best wins so far. Now they've decisively beaten all their opponents except Michigan, but how do you evaluate that.
Can you penalize Indiana for not getting an opportunity to play an Oregon or Penn State? Many have valued Ohio State's narrow win over Nebraska with Indiana domination of the Cornhuskers. Is that fair or do we need to look at HOW teams won?

Actually I think the larger conferences will increase the chances of quality match ups. Ohio state is going to have 3 top 5 matchups. I doubt that has ever happened before. IU just got really lucky this year with the weak schedule. Unlike Ohio State, IU isn’t scheduling an OOC game with one of the big boys. So they will probably never play a tougher schedule than Ohio State.

 

[Spartacus1987]

If Indiana gets pummeled by Ohio State, how do you put them in the CFP?

What’s their best win? Washington?

Their road wins would be UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State.

Their resume is empty if Ohio State kills them.

You’re not wrong. They picked a terrible year to have such a bad out of conference schedule. Even if they get blown out I’m not sure how you can keep them out with only one loss. Up until last week they’ve looked pretty dominant.

 

[Hammerdrill]

If Indiana gets pummeled by Ohio State, how do you put them in the CFP?

What’s their best win? Washington?

Their road wins would be UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State.

Their resume is empty if Ohio State kills them.

But you guys get in? I'm not sure ND can beat IU.

 

[AEW Champion]

But you guys get in? I'm not sure ND can beat IU.

Yes, Notre Dame gets in if they’re 11-1. Would have won at #15 A&M at night, beat #19 Louisville, beat #24 Army and beat USC at night in LA.

 

[AEW Champion]

The committee is making a damn fool of itself by putting four Big Ten teams in the top five.

Look at those matchups: Bama would be heavily favored at Indiana; Ole Miss would be slightly favored at Penn State.

 

[Spartacus1987]

The committee is making a damn fool of itself by putting four Big Ten teams in the top five.

Look at those matchups: Bama would be heavily favored at Indiana; Ole Miss would be slightly favored at Penn State.

Have to think of the weather. Ole Miss would have a really tough time in the cold. Think Penn State would be favored

 

[14Red]

Actually I think the larger conferences will increase the chances of quality match ups. Ohio state is going to have 3 top 5 matchups. I doubt that has ever happened before. IU just got really lucky this year with the weak schedule. Unlike Ohio State, IU isn’t scheduling an OOC game with one of the big boys. So they will probably never play a tougher schedule than Ohio State.

Um....let's do a deeper dive into those top 5 matchups. Do you honestly feel, Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State could play an SEC schedule and be in the top 5?

 

[14Red]

Have to think of the weather. Ole Miss would have a really tough time in the cold. Think Penn State would be favored

I always love the cold weather talk.

 

[wolves82]

If UGA takes a third loss — especially if that loss is in the SEC title game — they can and should still make the playoffs. A commanding night win at Texas and a demolition of Clemson (plus a potential night win at Tennessee) would give them big wins that virtually no other resume could stand up against.

Would you really put 11-1 Indiana with zero Top 25 wins — and zero wins over anyone EVEN CLOSE to the Top 25 — in over a team that smashed Clemson, Texas and possibly Tennessee?

I agree with you on Georgia. But you claimed 6 SEC teams are in. I think teams like A&M and Ole Miss will get that 3rd loss and they are out.

 

[Cedar_Point]

Looks like when the final rankings are announced it will be 4 Big Ten, 4 SEC, 1 ACC, 1 Big Twelve, 1 group of 5 and ND

I’m curious how far BYU would fall with a loss. I would assume out of top 12. Indiana probably falls behind ND with a loss to OSU. Also will be interesting to see if the loser of the SEC title game what they do with them. Does the 3rd loss matter? Or is just another “good loss” in data.

 

[Hammerdrill]

Um....let's do a deeper dive into those top 5 matchups. Do you honestly feel, Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State could play an SEC schedule and be in the top 5?

That isn’t relevant. Rankings are subjective. But they are subjective for everyone. So to the extent they are inaccurate, all are equally affected by the inaccuracy. I’m guessing that few if any other team has played 3 teams in the top 5 during the regular season. No one in the SEC has gone undefeated. So I’m not sure what your point is.

 

[14Red]

That isn’t relevant. Rankings are subjective. But they are subjective for everyone. So to the extent they are inaccurate, all are equally affected by the inaccuracy. I’m guessing that few if any other team has played 3 teams in the top 5 during the regular season. No one in the SEC has gone undefeated. So I’m not sure what your point is.

And no one is unbeaten in the SEC. The top and middle of the SEC is far superior than the big ten, it's not even close and it's been this way for decades.

 

[Hammerdrill]

And no one is unbeaten in the SEC. The top and middle of the SEC is far superior than the big ten, it's not even close and it's been this way for decades.

Probably. But that isn’t what the discussion is about. It’s about the scheduling.

 

[14Red]

Probably. But that isn’t what the discussion is about. It’s about the scheduling.

Ok, guess I'm going to have to slow down a little.

Ok, so the big 10 has 18 teams the SEC has 16. If your in a league where say 60% of the teams are medium to good, chances are pretty good you're going to play a tough schedule. If you're in a league where 20% of the team are medium to good, then you'll likely have more teams with better records. I don't know how that isn't scheduling.

 

[Hammerdrill]

Ok, guess I'm going to have to slow down a little.

Ok, so the big 10 has 18 teams the SEC has 16. If your in a league where say 60% of the teams are medium to good, chances are pretty good you're going to play a tough schedule. If you're in a league where 20% of the team are medium to good, then you'll likely have more teams with better records. I don't know how that isn't scheduling.

Let’s start with the fact that the SEC plays 1 less conference game than the big. Note ‘bama playing Mercer this week. That is a really big deal. Where would Mercer finish in the B18? On the balance, the teams added to the big, are better than the worst teams in the conference. So clearly there is an improvement in the quality of the schedules. But I’m not comparing the big to the sec, my point was simply about the big adding these teams.

 

[14Red]

Let’s start with the fact that the SEC plays 1 less conference game than the big. Note ‘bama playing Mercer this week. That is a really big deal. Where would Mercer finish in the B18? On the balance, the teams added to the big, are better than the worst teams in the conference. So clearly there is an improvement in the quality of the schedules. But I’m not comparing the big to the sec, my point was simply about the big adding these teams.

We beat this dead horse every year. First of all, Mercer, and some of the other scrubs that SEC teams play as their other game are on par with some of the bottom of the big ten teams (like Purdue this year) so let's stop this silly game.

 

[Hammerdrill]

We beat this dead horse every year. First of all, Mercer, and some of the other scrubs that SEC teams play as their other game are on par with some of the bottom of the big ten teams (like Purdue this year) so let's stop this silly game.

lol, oh please. That is complete nonsense. Plus one of those Big teams has to lose, none of the SEC is going to lose. Gee, I guess if you think a guarantee that you won’t lose is the same as a guarantee one team will lose is the same.

 

[wolves82]

And no one is unbeaten in the SEC. The top and middle of the SEC is far superior than the big ten, it's not even close and it's been this way for decades.

Pure opinion. Most experts agree that the top of the Big Ten and the top of the SEC are very close. OSU and Oregon are on par with the best of the SEC. It is the 2nd and 3rd levels where the SEC is superior. Big Ten has two elites, 2-3 very good, and then it falls of a cliff. SEC has 2-3 elites, 4-5 very good, then the drop off starts, but it is not a steep cliff like the Big Ten bottom.

 

[Quebec]

Pure opinion. Most experts agree that the top of the Big Ten and the top of the SEC are very close. OSU and Oregon are on par with the best of the SEC. It is the 2nd and 3rd levels where the SEC is superior. Big Ten has two elites, 2-3 very good, and then it falls of a cliff. SEC has 2-3 elites, 4-5 very good, then the drop off starts, but it is not a steep cliff like the Big Ten bottom.

Who are the three "very good" teams in the Big Ten? Is this a joke?

We seem to have forgotten quickly how much Oregon struggled with Boise just as much as OSU.

I'm in the category that thinks the entire Big Ten would be lucky to sniff the Top 10.

 

[Cedar_Point]

Who are the three "very good" teams in the Big Ten? Is this a joke?

We seem to have forgotten quickly how much Oregon struggled with Boise just as much as OSU.

I'm in the category that thinks the entire Big Ten would be lucky to sniff the Top 10.

Thanks for your opinion podcaster

 

[wolves82]

Who are the three "very good" teams in the Big Ten? Is this a joke?

We seem to have forgotten quickly how much Oregon struggled with Boise just as much as OSU.

I'm in the category that thinks the entire Big Ten would be lucky to sniff the Top 10.

Clearly this is all subjective, and many of your posts have erased any credibility that your opinion might have had, but we all anxiously await your flawed list of the 10 teams better than OSU and Oregon. It should be worth a laugh.