AEW Champion’s Power Rankings and Playoff Predictions

wolves82 said:
Yes I read it. It said 'don't take it too seriously', which is a disclaimer most of your posts need. But I figured you spent time typing it all out so you must have meant at least a portion of it.

I have seen Indiana twice and they are playing well. Early Vegas odds has OSU as a 12.5 favorite against them. Thus OSU would be a TD favorite on a neutral field. I think I'll go with their opinion since they don't post anything they aren't serious about.
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What has OSU done this season to warrant them being better than Indiana? Indiana has been more impressive in every way. On a neutral field we’ll never know what would happen considering the game is at OSU.
 
If the playoff were what it should be — no auto bids, just pick the 12 best teams — this would be pretty easy.

The four byes would clearly go to:
Oregon
Georgia
Texas
Ohio State.

The four teams hosting first-round games would be:
Miami
Tennessee
Alabama
Notre Dame

The last four teams in would be:
Penn State
Indiana
Texas A&M
Clemson

The argument really starts after Penn State. LSU would be my first team out, but I could flip them in for Clemson and feel OK about it.

I don’t think there’s a single Big 12 team that would be favored on a neutral field against the above 13 teams.
 
Spartacus1987 said:
What has OSU done this season to warrant them being better than Indiana? Indiana has been more impressive in every way. On a neutral field we’ll never know what would happen considering the game is at OSU.
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Just to add on to this Dan Mullen just said that common opponents Indiana has a 50+ point differential compared to what OSU did against those teams. Again, it’s unfortunate we won’t see these teams on a neutral field and OSU got lucky having to face them at home
 
Yesterday was a big day in terms of thinning out the bottom of the field:

1. It’s tough to see Clemson getting in now unless they were to win the ACC title. They need SMU to take an upset loss to even be in the ACC title game mix.

2. Pitt was proven to be a fraud.

3. Texas A&M now has to beat Texas or else they have little chance of making it.

4. K-State and Iowa State both getting upset makes it more likely the Big 12 is a one-bid league. BYU could confirm that if they lose the Holy War next Saturday night.

My updated Top 12:

Byes:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Miami
4. Iowa State

First round:

12. Boise State at 5. Oregon
11. Indiana at 6. Texas
10. Penn State at 7. Alabama
9. Tennessee at 8. Notre Dame
 
It’s unfortunate so many Big 12 and ACC teams lost yesterday. Going to make it really hard to not have so many SEC and Big Ten teams now
 
AEW Champion said:
Yesterday was a big day in terms of thinning out the bottom of the field:

1. It’s tough to see Clemson getting in now unless they were to win the ACC title. They need SMU to take an upset loss to even be in the ACC title game mix.

2. Pitt was proven to be a fraud.

3. Texas A&M now has to beat Texas or else they have little chance of making it.

4. K-State and Iowa State both getting upset makes it more likely the Big 12 is a one-bid league. BYU could confirm that if they lose the Holy War next Saturday night.

My updated Top 12:

Byes:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Miami
4. Iowa State

First round:

12. Boise State at 5. Oregon
11. Indiana at 6. Texas
10. Penn State at 7. Alabama
9. Tennessee at 8. Notre Dame
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Swap Iowa St for BYU. Also, watch out for Colorado. They were overhyped to the umpteenth degree last yr despite not being very good, but this yr, they are good and flying under the radar. They could win the B12.
 
Spartacus1987 said:
If Notre Dame wins out they are in and will be the 5 seed. I’m a die hard Big Ten fan but no way a homer, very much a realist. The conference isn’t very good top to bottom but at the top it is very good
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There's no way they should be and it just continues to make me think the CFP is just a network money grab. After Saturday, no way anyone can convince me Penn State is nothing more than a top 20 program.
 
14Red said:
There's no way they should be and it just continues to make me think the CFP is just a network money grab. After Saturday, no way anyone can convince me Penn State is nothing more than a top 20 program.
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Yes. Penn State sucks but every year a close win against them gets 90% of the OSU fanbase excited when in reality Penn State doesn’t beat any good teams and OSUs only claim to fame is beating them. Just go watch the Peach Bowl last season. That is Penn State football in a nut shell
 
Spartacus1987 said:
Yes. Penn State sucks but every year a close win against them gets 90% of the OSU fanbase excited when in reality Penn State doesn’t beat any good teams and OSUs only claim to fame is beating them. Just go watch the Peach Bowl last season. That is Penn State football in a nut shell
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Two gigantic plays in that game. Early on, Penn State is off the field on 3rd down and the tackler steps over the Buckeye receiver. Flag, Buckeyes get a TD on the drive. #2, Penn State going into score, Buckeye DB makes and incredible play to intercept the ball right before half. Penn State could have had touchdowns right before half, and at the end of the game and botched both chances.
 
14Red said:
Two gigantic plays in that game. Early on, Penn State is off the field on 3rd down and the tackler steps over the Buckeye receiver. Flag, Buckeyes get a TD on the drive. #2, Penn State going into score, Buckeye DB makes and incredible play to intercept the ball right before half. Penn State could have had touchdowns right before half, and at the end of the game and botched both chances.
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Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Speaking of 2 gigantic plays; OSU gave away 14 points in that game on 2 plays. Also, PSU could have forced a punt in the 4th and gotten great field position if they would have stopped what everyone should have known was coming - but they couldn't.
 
14Red said:
Two gigantic plays in that game. Early on, Penn State is off the field on 3rd down and the tackler steps over the Buckeye receiver. Flag, Buckeyes get a TD on the drive. #2, Penn State going into score, Buckeye DB makes and incredible play to intercept the ball right before half. Penn State could have had touchdowns right before half, and at the end of the game and botched both chances.
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Yes there were plays on both sides that were weird/crazy/bad. OSU definitely out played them and should have won. Final score is pretty accurate all things considered, problem is Penn State isn’t good and winning a close game against them does nothing for OSUs national perception
 
BHS83 said:
Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Speaking of 2 gigantic plays; OSU gave away 14 points in that game on 2 plays. Also, PSU could have forced a punt in the 4th and gotten great field position if they would have stopped what everyone should have known was coming - but they couldn't.
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I thought about that at halftime that both teams gave away scores.
 
Spartacus1987 said:
Yes there were plays on both sides that were weird/crazy/bad. OSU definitely out played them and should have won. Final score is pretty accurate all things considered, problem is Penn State isn’t good and winning a close game against them does nothing for OSUs national perception
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But all people ever point to is Ohio State beats #3 Penn State in Happy Valley. It's not mentioned that Penn State has no significant wins this season and continues to just not be great in big moments.
 
14Red said:
But all people ever point to is Ohio State beats #3 Penn State in Happy Valley. It's not mentioned that Penn State has no significant wins this season and continues to just not be great in big moments.
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Be careful who you’re listening to. Most people don’t know jack when it comes to football
 
14Red said:
But all people ever point to is Ohio State beats #3 Penn State in Happy Valley. It's not mentioned that Penn State has no significant wins this season and continues to just not be great in big moments.
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All I heard about about on every sports network all week was how poor Franklin is against elite teams and especially poor against Ohio State. It was a significant theme all week/weekend when people and tv personalities were talking about that game.
 
14Red said:
There's no way [Notre Dame] should be and it just continues to make me think the CFP is just a network money grab.
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Losing to NIU was really bad, but it’s also very clear that the loss in that one game isn’t emblematic of the Irish’s quality or capabilities.

If they go 11-1, they will have:

1. Won a road night game at the SEC’s Texas A&M, who themselves are an upset victory over Texas on Thanksgiving weekend away from being on the CFP doorstep.

2. Beaten Louisville, who gave Miami all they could handle and just won impressively at Clemson at night.

3. Beaten USC in the Coliseum, something Penn State needed OT to accomplish.

4. Destroyed previously unbeaten Navy by 37 and will have to beat unbeaten Army as well. Also curbstomped the Big Ten’s Purdue 66-7, who then turned around and took allegedly solid Illinois to OT in Champaign. Remember that Illinois sits as Penn State’s second-best win behind USC.

There’s also the reality that teams can improve as the season goes on. In literally every other team sport, you can take losses and ideally peak at the end of the season. Yet in college football, you want an 11-1 team with a solid resume eliminated because of a two-point Week 2 loss.

We have seen teams take a bad loss or almost take a bad loss and win titles. Heck, in 2002, the eventual national champion* Buckeyes damn near lost to lowly UC, who at that time was a mid-major playing .500 ball in C-USA. The Chiefs lost to the poor Broncos and Raiders last year and won the Super Bowl. You don’t dismiss high-quality teams in a 12-team playoff environment based on one aberration early in the year.

* AEW Champion’s 2002 national champion is Miami.
 
The committee tonight went with:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. BYU

12. Boise State at 5. Ohio State
11. Alabama at 6. Texas
10. Notre Dame at 7. Penn State
9. Indiana at 8. Tennessee

First teams out:
13. SMU
14. Texas A&M
15. LSU
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
 
AEW Champion said:
Losing to NIU was really bad, but it’s also very clear that the loss in that one game isn’t emblematic of the Irish’s quality or capabilities.

If they go 11-1, they will have:

1. Won a road night game at the SEC’s Texas A&M, who themselves are an upset victory over Texas on Thanksgiving weekend away from being on the CFP doorstep.

2. Beaten Louisville, who gave Miami all they could handle and just won impressively at Clemson at night.

3. Beaten USC in the Coliseum, something Penn State needed OT to accomplish.

4. Destroyed previously unbeaten Navy by 37 and will have to beat unbeaten Army as well. Also curbstomped the Big Ten’s Purdue 66-7, who then turned around and took allegedly solid Illinois to OT in Champaign. Remember that Illinois sits as Penn State’s second-best win behind USC.

There’s also the reality that teams can improve as the season goes on. In literally every other team sport, you can take losses and ideally peak at the end of the season. Yet in college football, you want an 11-1 team with a solid resume eliminated because of a two-point Week 2 loss.

We have seen teams take a bad loss or almost take a bad loss and win titles. Heck, in 2002, the eventual national champion* Buckeyes damn near lost to lowly UC, who at that time was a mid-major playing .500 ball in C-USA. The Chiefs lost to the poor Broncos and Raiders last year and won the Super Bowl. You don’t dismiss high-quality teams in a 12-team playoff environment based on one aberration early in the year.

* AEW Champion’s 2002 national champion is Miami.
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You had me until you threw the Chiefs in there, absolutely no comparing pro and college football. In pro football you play quality professional opponents week in and week out. College football there are so few common opponents that you have to have some evaluation process. Losing to a .500 MAC team eliminates you in my book. Period. If it wasn't ND, it would make sense. Also, please don't ever use Navy or a service academy team to make a claim for D1 football.
JackEd said:
ND at Penn St is intriguing. I’ll take ND in that one.
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Two overrated programs.
 
I'm so happy Indiana is in the mix I really don't care where they get put. Let's face it there is a component where the blue bloods will get the nod. Networks are going to have a say who gets in due to TV ratings and fan base. IU has everything right in front of them and has to take care of business. They catch a break this season not having Oregon or Penn State on the schedule.
 
Spartacus1987 said:
Be careful who you’re listening to. Most people don’t know jack when it comes to football
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New Jersey GIF by GIPHY News
 
Spartacus1987 said:
Just to add on to this Dan Mullen just said that common opponents Indiana has a 50+ point differential compared to what OSU did against those teams. Again, it’s unfortunate we won’t see these teams on a neutral field and OSU got lucky having to face them at home
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Generally speaking, home field advantage is weighted at 3-5 points in the spread, by the experts who set the numbers.

If Indiana wins or keeps it under a TD in the Shoe, I'll acknowledge that you are right. When OSU wins by 14+ you can admit I was right about them.
 
wolves82 said:
Generally speaking, home field advantage is weighted at 3-5 points in the spread, by the experts who set the numbers.

If Indiana wins or keeps it under a TD in the Shoe, I'll acknowledge that you are right. When OSU wins by 14+ you can admit I was right about them.
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The Michigan game this week will tell us a lot more about IU.
 
Hammerdrill said:
The Michigan game this week will tell us a lot more about IU.
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Doesnt seem like IU will get a full Michigan defense test though. Moore said it seems like Jyaire Hill will play, CB2 who missed the Oregon game, but Will Johnson is unlikely to return to action this weekend. To your point though, IU will still have to hold up against Michigan’s DL.
 
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