2025 Cincinnati Reds Thread

[14Red]

Any thoughts moving forward after watching the MLB playoffs? One that sticks out to me blatantly is do the Reds have a strong enough/ deep enough bullpen to get through 10-15 playoff games? One thing that's relevant in the playoffs is the teams who've got the furthest have used their bullpens, and used them alot! This means you have to have 6-7 guys that you can rely on multiple days, sometimes multiple innings. Now I do feel the Reds have the potential to have starters go more than the 5 innings that many of these guys are going. It seems like with these teams, if a starter goes 6+ innings it's highly unusual. Of course this is all predicated on guys being healthy and being able to take the ball every 5 days.
I do feel this is something that can be addressed as the season is going on. These teams are using guys who pitched very little during the season in high leverage situations.

 

[Smarty2022]

Spend some Money or keep losing. Those the Reds choices. They can spend Money and still not Win World Series but at least make the Playoffs pretty regularly.

 

[Spartacus1987]

The Mets are annually one of the highest spending teams in baseball?? When did they win the world series last? My focus is and always will be the players on the field, not how much money they make.

So? What’s your point? I just gave you every season a team in the top 10 of payroll wins the WS. A few of those seasons the #1 payroll won.

 

[wolves82]

So? What’s your point? I just gave you every season a team in the top 10 of payroll wins the WS. A few of those seasons the #1 payroll won.

Yep, it is pretty simple. Spending big does not guarantee championships (Angels, Mets, etc.). But NOT spending into the top 10 is basically a guarantee of not winning.

I've been trying to explain this to him for years. I just gave up.

 

[wolves82]

Spend some Money or keep losing. Those the Reds choices. They can spend Money and still not Win World Series but at least make the Playoffs pretty regularly.

Agreed, to a point. My vision for the 2025 Reds path to success...

Key is spending WISELY.
- Montas ($14M) is gone.
- Candelario - $15M - Contract is two more years. I would try to trade him for 2 MLB bullpen guys, non-closers. Might be stuck with him.
- Martinez - $12M - he has a player option - I hope he stays
- Pagan - $8M - he has a player option - I really hope he opts out. If not, try to deal him, but again, may be stuck with him.
- Junis - $8M - mutual options - let him go
- Maile and Suter - $3.5M each - both club options - let them go.

With the freed up money, here is what you do:
- Give Elly a long-term extension at a below market price. I have explained many times why this is win-win for the team and the player. Do it now!
- Make a big splash with all the savings (above) and get a big name RF. Soto may be too much, but I'd love Santander or Teoscar Hernandez. Show the fans and the players that you want to win. Santander or Teoscar in GABP = 40 HR easy. Just do it!!
- Get a backup veteran catcher as a FA (Hedges, D'Arnaud, Higashioka?)
- Find some quality veteran depth from the list below (pitching and OF).

That leaves the Reds with:
- Infield: Elly, McLain, India, Marte, CES, Candelario
- Outfield: Steer, Friedl, (Santander?), Fraley, (FA)
- Catcher: Stephenson, (FA)
- Rotation: Greene, (veteran FA), Lodolo, Abbott, Lowder
- Bullpen: God only knows

I'm not asking for a crazy 200-300M payroll. You can accomplish the above by increasing the payroll from $100M to about $135-$140M. That keeps them well under the MLB average, and the Castellinis can still put lots of profits into their sweaty pockets. The lineup above would be very competitive, assuming 2 of the 3 kids (Marte, McLain, CES) are as good as projected.

If needed, I am willing to do Krall's job for half of his salary and make this happen.

All of the 2024-2025 free agents, position by position

Here is a position-by-position breakdown of the 2024-25 free-agent class. Players are grouped by position and ranked by their FanGraphs wins above replacement total across 2023-24. Each player's 2025 seasonal age is included in parentheses next to his name.

www.mlb.com

 

[14Red]

So? What’s your point? I just gave you every season a team in the top 10 of payroll wins the WS. A few of those seasons the #1 payroll won.

My point is spending the most money doesn't guarantee winning. Ask the Mets.

 

[14Red]

So? What’s your point? I just gave you every season a team in the top 10 of payroll wins the WS. A few of those seasons the #1 payroll won.

Follow up point is it's likely the Reds will never spend like the Dodgers/ Yankees and Mets, so it's kind of moot point to keep talking about player salaries. Looked it up today, the Dodgers had 18 players make $4 million dollar or more in 2024. The Reds had 4. Why is that unbalanced, because several of those Dodger players, Kershaw, Glassnow, Heywood, Joe Kelly, James Paxon, had nothing to do with the playoffs. There's no way the Reds could have 5-6 of their top paid players not play and be successful. Will Smith is a nice player for the Dodgers, he made $16 mill this year? There is no way the Reds or 20 other teams in baseball could pay a good but not great catcher that kind of money. Tyler Stephenson is Will Smith a few years ago. I don't see the Reds ever paying Stephenson that kind of money. Stephenson made over $2 mill this season.

 

[wolves82]

My point is spending the most money doesn't guarantee winning. Ask the Mets.

Yes, we all agree and acknowledge: Spending big does not guarantee championships (Angels, Mets, etc.).

You must also acknowledge that NOT spending into the top 10 is basically a guarantee of not winning a championship. Its factual history.

 

[wolves82]

Follow up point is it's likely the Reds will never spend like the Dodgers/ Yankees and Mets, so it's kind of moot point to keep talking about player salaries. Looked it up today, the Dodgers had 18 players make $4 million dollar or more in 2024. The Reds had 4. Why is that unbalanced, because several of those Dodger players, Kershaw, Glassnow, Heywood, Joe Kelly, James Paxon, had nothing to do with the playoffs. There's no way the Reds could have 5-6 of their top paid players not play and be successful. Will Smith is a nice player for the Dodgers, he made $16 mill this year? There is no way the Reds or 20 other teams in baseball could pay a good but not great catcher that kind of money. Tyler Stephenson is Will Smith a few years ago. I don't see the Reds ever paying Stephenson that kind of money. Stephenson made over $2 mill this season.

No one is asking the Reds to spend like LA and New York. See my plan above - I am just asking them to spend a little less than the MLB average. That is not unreasonable.

 

[14Red]

So now that the baseball season is officially over, the Reds can now begin to hone in on roster construction for 2025. A big time name that's out there that would be right down the teams need list is Juan Soto.
The Good, a guy like Soto with solidify the lineup in the #3, #4 hole as that outfield power bat. He's durable, doesn't miss games, hits for average, power and has an on base percentage like Votto.
The Bad, not a great outfielder. He's going to be uber expensive and there will be alot of bidders for him.

Could the Reds make a serious push for him? This is his first run and free agency, he's going to command as big of contract as there may be in baseball, why would the Reds be of any interest to him?

 

[14Red]

Spend some Money or keep losing. Those the Reds choices. They can spend Money and still not Win World Series but at least make the Playoffs pretty regularly.

At this point you have a core of young players who are due for big money just yet. If you can find legitimate upgrades, spend the money, but if you're just spending money to spend money, and the production is the same, then what are we doing? A franchise that comes to mind that make very poor decisions on spending is the Anaheim Angels. They continue to go spend big money on free agents, and they keep losing.

 

[Omega]

With the World Series in the books, MLB wheeling and dealing season is just around the corner:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-offseason-key-dates-free-agency-begins-awards-winter-meetings-hall-of-fame-spring-training-and-more/

The hot stove discussions are always as interesting as the season itself.

 

[Thavoice]

So now that the baseball season is officially over, the Reds can now begin to hone in on roster construction for 2025. A big time name that's out there that would be right down the teams need list is Juan Soto.
The Good, a guy like Soto with solidify the lineup in the #3, #4 hole as that outfield power bat. He's durable, doesn't miss games, hits for average, power and has an on base percentage like Votto.
The Bad, not a great outfielder. He's going to be uber expensive and there will be alot of bidders for him.

Could the Reds make a serious push for him? This is his first run and free agency, he's going to command as big of contract as there may be in baseball, why would the Reds be of any interest to him?

Yea......Soto to the Reds.

While ur at it, formulate a plan to get Ohtani, and Judge as well.

Live in the real world and just accept the best this franchise can do is .500 and ownership does not care to spend money because they know spending more doesn't guarantee making more...

 

[AEW Champion]

Yea......Soto to the Reds.

While ur at it, formulate a plan to get Ohtani, and Judge as well.

Live in the real world and just accept the best this franchise can do is .500 and ownership does not care to spend money because they know spending more doesn't guarantee making more...

The funniest part is he poo-poos anyone who says the Reds need to spend more money, then immediately turns around and ruminates about Juan Soto being a Red.

 

[14Red]

Yea......Soto to the Reds.

While ur at it, formulate a plan to get Ohtani, and Judge as well.

Live in the real world and just accept the best this franchise can do is .500 and ownership does not care to spend money because they know spending more doesn't guarantee making more...

So let's make a wish list, Teaoscar Hernandez, Pete Alonzo, who are some of the guys the Reds could go after?

 

[AEW Champion]

So let's make a wish list, Teaoscar Hernandez, Pete Alonzo, who are some of the guys the Reds could go after?

Not sure he would accept a backup role early on in free agency, but adding Elias Diaz as the backup catcher would be solid. Danny Jansen is another good option.

Walker Buehler is a name that will be popular. Nick Martinez, Michael Wacha and Nathan Eovaldi are other possibilities. They definitely need to consider a veteran #2-caliber SP.

In the right deal, I would consider flipping CES in a trade and moving Spencer Steer to 1B. What would it even take to trade for Luis Robert? He has underachieved and been oft-injured in the dysfunctional White Sox environment, but move him to a contender and he’s likely to put up big numbers while playing a good defensive CF.

Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill should all be looked at in the outfield. A trade for someone like Taylor Ward should also be considered.

I assume they’re going to live with Marte’s growing pains at 3B, but if Candelario and India are going to stay on the roster, they both need to be capable of playing a competent 3B. Otherwise their usefulness goes downhill.

I would shoot for a roster of:

Infield:
Steer
Candelario
McLain
India
De La Cruz
Marte

Catchers:
Stephenson
Diaz/Jansen

Outfield:
Robert
FA (Santander/Teoscar/O’Neill/Ward)
Fraley
Friedl
Fairchild

Stating rotation:
Greene
FA (Buehler/Eovaldi/Martinez/Wacha)
Lowder
Lodolo
Abbott

Minor leagues:
Espinal
Arroyo
Benson
Wiemer

Phillips
Petty
Spiers
Richardson
Burns

Ashcraft should be a candidate to occupy the long relief/spot start role that Martinez had this season.

 

[wolves82]

So now that the baseball season is officially over, the Reds can now begin to hone in on roster construction for 2025. A big time name that's out there that would be right down the teams need list is Juan Soto.
The Good, a guy like Soto with solidify the lineup in the #3, #4 hole as that outfield power bat. He's durable, doesn't miss games, hits for average, power and has an on base percentage like Votto.
The Bad, not a great outfielder. He's going to be uber expensive and there will be alot of bidders for him.

Could the Reds make a serious push for him? This is his first run and free agency, he's going to command as big of contract as there may be in baseball, why would the Reds be of any interest to him?

I love it when people love to spend other's money.

Classic

 

[wolves82]

The funniest part is he poo-poos anyone who says the Reds need to spend more money, then immediately turns around and ruminates about Juan Soto being a Red.

Also classic 14Red:
- I hate strike outs! We need to reduce strike outs. Put the ball in play!
- Let's get Pete Alonso! (172 strikeouts in 2024)

You can;t make this stuff up.

 

[AEW Champion]

The Reds enter the offseason ranked at #23, according to ESPN’s Way-Too-Early 2025 Rankings:

 

[wolves82]

Last week Nick Martinez and Junis declined their player options. They are gone, freeing up $20M in payroll. Add in Montas, that is $34M. Reds should be refusing the option on Suter and Maile - that gets $7M more, so $41M is available.

Krall - if you are listening - go get Santander or Teoscar Hernandez. We need the big bat.

 

[AEW Champion]

Last week Nick Martinez and Junis declined their player options. They are gone, freeing up $20M in payroll. Add in Montas, that is $34M. Reds should be refusing the option on Suter and Maile - that gets $7M more, so $41M is available.

Krall - if you are listening - go get Santander or Teoscar Hernandez. We need the big bat.

Suter renegotiated a new deal to stay for 2025 with a 26 club option, so he’s still on the books but I believe at a slightly lower salary. The Reds declined Maile’s option.

 

[AEW Champion]

Reds offer Nick Martinez the $21M qualifying offer. We shall see whether he accepts. I suspect he’ll decline and the Reds will end up with a compensatory pick.

A good move for the Reds, IMO.

 

[wolves82]

Reds offer Nick Martinez the $21M qualifying offer. We shall see whether he accepts. I suspect he’ll decline and the Reds will end up with a compensatory pick.

A good move for the Reds, IMO.

Shocking to me. The only reason to make the QO is if you think he is worth more than that. Does Martinez think that he can get more than $21M per year from some sucker team? If so, he needs to check the back of his own baseball card. But maybe some team with more money than sense gets fooled by his strong September and takes the bait.

I hope he declines. I like Martinez at the lower salary, but he is not worth $21M if it also costs the opportunity to pay for a stud RF bat.

Hopefully also the Reds know the market and expect Martinez to get a big deal, so we can get a Comp Bal round A compensation pick. If that happens it was a good move for the Reds. Getting that extra pick at the end of the 1st round is the only reason to offer. If he accepts, really bad move IMO.

 

[AEW Champion]

Shocking to me. The only reason to make the QO is if you think he is worth more than that. Does Martinez think that he can get more than $21M per year from some sucker team? If so, he needs to check the back of his own baseball card. But maybe some team with more money than sense gets fooled by his strong September and takes the bait.

I hope he declines. I like Martinez at the lower salary, but he is not worth $21M if it also costs the opportunity to pay for a stud RF bat.

Hopefully also the Reds know the market and expect Martinez to get a big deal, so we can get a Comp Bal round A compensation pick. If that happens it was a good move for the Reds. Getting that extra pick at the end of the 1st round is the only reason to offer. If he accepts, really bad move IMO.

I don’t expect that Martinez would get $21M per year from a team. But I think the dice roll for the Reds is that he would be looking for a multiyear deal and thus is likely to turn down the qualifying offer. With the rate that pitchers suffer significant injuries these days, every starter is hunting down multiple years for security in case they get hurt.

Wittenmyer reported yesterday that the Reds had been discussing a two-year deal with Martinez prior to the QO, so hopefully they have a good idea about exactly what he’s seeking and whether he’s likely to get it in the market.

FWIW, I feel like he’d likely be able to get at least a two-year deal between $32M and $35M from somebody, which makes me think he’ll turn down the offer.

Whether it’s Martinez or someone else, the Reds are going to have to pony up for a capable veteran starting pitcher. That’s part of the cost of being too cheap to extend Luis Castillo back in 2022. Now they’ve paid that money anyway to Montas and whoever comes in the door next.

 

[14Red]

Reds offer Nick Martinez the $21M qualifying offer. We shall see whether he accepts. I suspect he’ll decline and the Reds will end up with a compensatory pick.

A good move for the Reds, IMO.

It will be interesting to see how this works. Martinez will be pushing for a multi year deal, the Reds could sit on the one year offer and force his hand. As well as he pitched in September, I don't know that he's worth $21 mill for one season. Could he get a better offer? Maybe, maybe not.

 

[14Red]

I don’t expect that Martinez would get $21M per year from a team. But I think the dice roll for the Reds is that he would be looking for a multiyear deal and thus is likely to turn down the qualifying offer. With the rate that pitchers suffer significant injuries these days, every starter is hunting down multiple years for security in case they get hurt.

Wittenmyer reported yesterday that the Reds had been discussing a two-year deal with Martinez prior to the QO, so hopefully they have a good idea about exactly what he’s seeking and whether he’s likely to get it in the market.

FWIW, I feel like he’d likely be able to get at least a two-year deal between $32M and $35M from somebody, which makes me think he’ll turn down the offer.

Whether it’s Martinez or someone else, the Reds are going to have to pony up for a capable veteran starting pitcher. That’s part of the cost of being too cheap to extend Luis Castillo back in 2022. Now they’ve paid that money anyway to Montas and whoever comes in the door next.

I don't disagree, but starting pitching isn't a need on this team. You weren't contending anyway so moving Castillo opened the way for the kids.

 

[AEW Champion]

I don't disagree, but starting pitching isn't a need on this team. You weren't contending anyway so moving Castillo opened the way for the kids.

Starting pitching is definitely a need on this team. They only have four clear-cut starters for next year: Greene, Lodolo, Lowder, Abbott.

Beyond that, you have lots of question marks:
Graham Ashcraft — had 5+ ERA last year
Carson Spiers — gave up way too many HR
Connor Phillips — who knows after last year
Lyon Richardson — just a warm body?
Chase Petty — is he close to ready?
Chase Burns — just got drafted

Ashcraft could become a long reliever with Martinez perhaps gone and Junis gone.

Williamson and Aguiar are both out of the picture next year due to injury.

You have (correctly) harped on the fact that Lodolo never stays healthy. This September, the Reds pretty much ran out of starters.

I don’t know how starting pitching isn’t going to be a need unless you have a ton of confidence in some of the above names not only to pitch well but also mostly stay healthy.

 

[14Red]

Beyond that, you have lots of question marks:
Graham Ashcraft — had 5+ ERA last year
Carson Spiers — gave up way too many HR
Connor Phillips — who knows after last year
Lyon Richardson — just a warm body?
Chase Petty — is he close to ready?
Chase Burns — just got drafted

Between this group of guys, you can fill enough spots to keep it going and you can always go get a veteran starter last minute. We need BATS!!!

 

[wolves82]

Starting pitching is definitely a need on this team. They only have four clear-cut starters for next year: Greene, Lodolo, Lowder, Abbott.

Beyond that, you have lots of question marks:
Graham Ashcraft — had 5+ ERA last year
Carson Spiers — gave up way too many HR
Connor Phillips — who knows after last year
Lyon Richardson — just a warm body?
Chase Petty — is he close to ready?
Chase Burns — just got drafted

Ashcraft could become a long reliever with Martinez perhaps gone and Junis gone.

Williamson and Aguiar are both out of the picture next year due to injury.

You have (correctly) harped on the fact that Lodolo never stays healthy. This September, the Reds pretty much ran out of starters.

I don’t know how starting pitching isn’t going to be a need unless you have a ton of confidence in some of the above names not only to pitch well but also mostly stay healthy.

100% agree - the rotation was in shambles in September. Pitching is a big need.

I fully realize the Reds will not be in the sweepstakes for Burnes, Snell, Fried, etc. And hopefully we steer clear away from the old guys (Verlander, Scherzer, Morton, Kershaw).

In my long post above for the 2025 plan, I listed the 4 starters that you did, plus: FA (Buehler/Eovaldi/Martinez/Wacha) . Martinez is still possible, but it seems like Wacha is no longer available, KC re-signed him. In addition to the names above, I would like Kikuchi or Lorenzen. But we need a veteran starter that is reliable, not necessarily an all star.

 

[14Red]

Here is an article by Jeff Carr who does a podcast about Reds baseball. Probably not going to sit well with many of you...

There have been a few reports that the Reds payroll number may not exceed their total for the 2024 season. While that is slightly disappointing to hear, it gives us a bit of an expectation.

According to Spotrac, the Reds total payroll for 2024 was $100,298,613. In an earlier post I surmised that the Reds could push their franchise record for payroll, but reports from both Mark Sheldon and Gordon Wittenmyer cite the volatile television broadcast situation as a reason why the Reds may not aggressively increase their expenditures.

While I don’t like that, this is where we are. So what does that mean for our offseason expectations?

Spotrac estimates the Reds payroll, with arbitration numbers on all eligible players, to be at roughly $68 million. All of the options have been decided, so there is no variability there, and the only thing that could change that is if the Reds extend the qualifying offer to Nick Martinez and he accepts. I find that highly unlikely, as he will be looking for a multi-year deal.

That means there is potentially $32 million to play with.

Outfield is the key area of need as there is no in-house answer to “who do we trust to be our main right fielder in 2025?”

There is also a bit of urgency surrounding possible contract extensions for members of the Reds core. Tyler Stephenson is my pick here and he could receive somewhere around $8-$10 million a year. It’s possible the Reds do this before signing any free agents.

That doesn't give them much room to add to their roster. The Reds need starting pitching depth. They also need a backup catcher with the club option on Luke Maile being declined and Austin Wynns becoming a free agent.