Dublin Coffman Rocks 2020

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Oregon State has over-performed against the line so far in the few games that has bene the PAC-12 season and Oregon has under-performed .Though they may adjust a bit given the rivalry and the lines being off so far where these two are concerned. Nice win on the UNDER as we escaped overtime and the sure kiss of death in the Texas - Iowa State game as they 57 yard field goal had 65 yard had the distance but sailed wide left as ISU held on for a 23-20 win easily going UNDER .

Notre Dame with a couple more guys out than NC which probably makes the 4-5 line accurate after all. Still think the Irish cover the 4 for us and win by a TD to 10 points . 17-17 at the half in a close competitive tilt so far.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Great day and a half in CFB. ND dominant in the second half on defense was impressive . Oregon State with the outright win getting 14 and the total staying under in TX-ISU . Tom Herman who may have gotten that big a job prematurely { 36-37 is usually young at any level D-1 program and most start at lesser programs in their first HC job , no matter how smart or accomplished} is feeling some Jalapeno type heat down there. Taking the sack making it a 57 yarder? If it goes OT we probably cruelly lose the UNDER in that one, but I still feel bad for Herman . He likely gets more time , but the program after rising a bit two years ago is going in the wrong direction. Thursday's Utah State win started us off well. A few games look good today.

Early Noon starts

Kent State + 7.5 over Buffalo - tight ballgame , UB tough D at times will be pushed by good KSU offense . KSU strong on the road 5-0 last 5 vs number and 6-1 overall.

Michigan Pick - 1 Penn State - lost a couple backing PSU as they continue to not finish drives and commit costly turnovers. The big problem is their defense isn't able to make up for it. Wolverines have some momentum after coming back vs Rutgers, new QB injecting energy. Michigan has series edge big time here and I like them to win a close one at a fair price.


4.00 Pm

BC- 1 over Louisville - BC is a solid 22-8 last 31 in conference vs. the number denoting some pretty serious disrespect . Cards are a bit overvalued here off of a 30-0 win vs pathetic Syracuse. Made the line 4.5 . like the Eagles to win by a TD minimum.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Not an advocate of playing CFB Totals much , Unders and overtime don't mix . BUT bene hitting a high percentage of these , so getting routed in the Buffalo - Kent State game, side wise , grabbing the OVER 69 was a positive choice . Both teams getting into the 30's was very very reasonable, one team getting to 70 was not . Anyway saved a bit there , but Michigan was the absolute wrong choice as PSU played a very good game getting their FIRST win of the season as the pre-season number seven team . Indiana was on my board and just missed .Of course they came in . Some times it happens that way , sometimes it's the opposite . Another one not played was Syracuse getting 17 . Just missed .NC State doesn't get margins but other numbers said Syracuse may get routed again . Scrolling the NFL Covid lists and other injuries and there is just no other year like this . it's incredible. Getting covided if you will is a real thing , sometimes it can benefit you, but a tough year to keep up with who is playing and if they ARE PLAYING as in the game and how much practice ahs bene missed .

Total we got at 63.5{ UNDER} early yesterday is now 60.5 in the LSU -Texas A'm game. We have talked about pace before , and A'M plays at a slower one . They are laying 15 here and will score on the LSU defense but with stud CB Stingley and a couple others back from injury on the LSU defense , I see the doing better than they have and they have a young Frosh QB playing so i feel they take less chances with him. LSU run stop unit improving .

Getting a nice number earlier on Colorado - 3 in a recently scheduled make it up as we go along Covid special after other teams couldn't play due to Covid .{ USC} . Just another day in the life of 2020 . Think the Buffs will be pushed hard but the line is now at 5 so at least we got a good number .

Three games that were possible plays have bene postponed in the last few days. Washington - 7 over Utah who is too inexperienced on defense to stay with the Huskies I believe for 4 quarters .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Early couple losses followed by wins with BC - Under LSU - A'M , Colorado , but Washington stumbled badly early getting behind 21-0 before finishing the game on a 24-0 run to win 24-21 was a late loser { -7} . Good Thurs/ Fri made it another positive CFB weekend.

NFL 1-1 On T-Day with totals and looking at a few situations today that look promising.

Buffalo - 4.5 over LA Chargers - Like this one quite a bit , as the Bills off of a well needed bye after getting beat by the Hail Mary in Arizona and was getting a bit weary . Been home for two weeks getting ready to stake a stronger claim on the AFC East in a game against the battered Chargers who are more weary even coming of a win { 2-6 last 8 beating the awful Jets and Jags} vs the Jets in which they struggled to hang on . LAC defense is lacking big time and will have trouble today . Wish the weather was worse{ 34 and sunny } but the early 1.00 am est. start for the LAC off of a Miami trip, then back home then back in a few week period may be caught lacking energy today. Bills more rested, the better team , playing for more just might handle this team fairly easily? Line is fair . Bills 31 Chargers 20?
 
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Harrycrane

Well-known member
Sometimes there's a game you like but the price point is just a tad high and you stay disciplined and stay off of it. But if you find a couple games just off your comfort level numbers wise a teaser play is sometimes warranted.


Three to Four teams are just a bit out of the comfort level for making a play . So teasing them using the 6 or 6.5 teaser { A tad more expensive} can be a profitable situation. Hitting about 56 percent of them this year = profit for us .

NY Giants have been rising lately { 3-4 } with the 4 losses by an average of 3.7 . Jones taking care of the ball well, defense playing better. but 6 is too high even without Burrow.

Cleveland is flat out better than the Jags but 7 on the road with a team that plays slow , doesn't get margins and well they are still the Browns and not quite a sure thing at any time ?

So teasing them to where they just need to win ? It's a go . NYG - CLE teaser play. Looking at Green Bay who is a bit high at 8.5-9- and I kind of like Philly tomorrow night but aren't quite getting enough at less than a TD.

Minnesota - 3 after blowing the game last week vs Dallas is trusted only because Carolina is a bit worn down [ Beat the Lions who were so bad the last two weeks here coach and GM fired before the end of the season} and can't stop the run and Cousins completes a high percentage of his throws. Fool me once ? Shame on them , fool me again today ? Most definitely shame on me .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Shame on me , Minnesota with two fumbles returned on basically back to back plays in the third quarter as they continue to throw up all over themselves at home , Cook Injured for Vikings , Daniel Jones injured for Giants, Cleveland fumbling all over the place , Giants give up a KO return for a TYD and are outgaining the by about 280 yards ? WTF ? Good times , right sides ridiculous crap happening .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Actually turned out alright, both the Browns and Giants needed the teaser and didn't cover like they both probably should have, Minnesota fumbled twice back to back deep in their own territory resulting in two consecutive scoop and scores. Still won the game but by only one . Buffalo was the right side but needed to stop a last second backdoor cover off of a long throw it up pass on 4th and long . 2- 1 on sides , teasers , 2-1 on totals for the week and grabbed the Packers last night teased with the Eagles tonight . So If the Eagles can get there + 12.5 it's 5-2 for the week. If not 4-3 with Buffalo being the key win .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
A rare NFL game being played on a day usually reserved for the MAC , and Middle school games. A day nine to fivers call 'hump day". NFL true to it's Massive TV revenue vision, is diligently trying to get every game in and do it in the name of the fan . We wont let you down . Some college teams are playing full schedules , and Arizona State plays game two in early December . Playing a kind of High school concert band or chorus schedule . A fall program , and now a pre -Christmas break recital?

We always knew the SEC and Big -12 were going full bore and would play the most games adn the PAC-12 would be the more cautious conference who feels they have their priorities right. Big -10 is somewhere in the middle. Herbstreit got bit by the apology bug , as he opined that may be Michigan because they suk and has zero chance of beating Ohio State and may not be ab le to beat their two's , duck them and avoid getting run over by that train. And in the process affect OSU's 4 team play-off hopes. Speaking of WHY IN THE WORLD ISN'T THERE AN 8 TEAM play-off in this type of year? With teams playing different length schedules in a once in a century pandemic why can't you just make it an 8 teamer for this year ? A year that is so different than any other ? You feel the need to stick with this idea as if everything else is so normal ?


Herbstreit who got grief from right wing tough guys for what they thought was faking emotion around the George Floyd protests continues to be an Ohio whipping boy at times. Yes he moved his family to Tennessee and his twins walked on at Clemson , and all long time higher profile announcers catch crap at some point as familiarity breeds contempt . What doesn't look good for Kirk is the fact that Dabo Swinney { Who is wearing on some people around the country } first floated this COVID excuse for ducking powerhouses { Florida State ducking his machine } and Kirk loves him all that is Clemson for obvious reasons.[ i thought he just may opine that Brett Venables should be be named world Minister of defense during play-off coverage last year}


Tennessee + 17.5 { Line is falling a bit } at home to cover vs. Florida .- Florida can play to competition and Tennessee is capable of hanging around for a while and staying within a couple scores.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Many programs have started their off-season 2021 training in what we hope is business as usual for next season . Some teams thrived better than others . Some county's had different restrictions , some got later starts and more interruptions. Some programs had shutdowns. The usual suspects thrived and carried on well as their continuity and tradition was very useful in this most trying of seasons.

As we head to the off-season where champions are made and where the process of excellence starts. The best of the best do the best job attacking the process of off -season improvement . Like the majority of the best students who study and prepare very well, athletes and programs have the most players who enjoy the 'process " and or consistently do the work who have the best results. Any close inspection of the championship programs and most consistent programs year in and year out you will find the secret sauce isn't a secret at all. It's all about the process , the work and the preparation.

A ton of positions and starting jobs up for grabs in what is Coffman's biggest rebuild since 2013 and I believe it's the biggest one in the last 20 years with may be an exception of say 2005 which was the year after the Dublin school split with Jerome opening. Offensive Line , Linebacker , corner and running back are positions of rebuild. Receiver is in need of a few guys to step up . QB will be a first time starter but Mason Maggs is going to be a very good starting QB . He would have started for many teams this year . 6-3 200 with a strong arm and understanding of the offense . He just needs another receiver or two to get the ball to. There is a couple in the building who are choosing not to play perhaps for different reasons. Potential playmakers who like Jerry Seinfeld , 'Choose not to play " , Seinfeld chose not to run , but you get the point.

Program is still strong and is a great place to play and go to school. Players should feel privileged for what they have in terms of facilities, coaching , support and the strength of the academics and the excellence of the faculty . More open positions than I can remember . D-Line has potential to be a leading unit with starters Jr. Kyle Buckley{ 6-2 230 } who had a a very good year and with anohter 20 pounds with increased strength has all league potential and can be a run stuffer. Soph. DE Will Smith [ Yes that Will Smith's RIP son} IS 6-2 235 and has tremendous potential and can be a real leader on defense as a Junior . He came on strong as the season went on and he got used to varsity football.

D-1 potential IMO, moves well , gets off blocks well for a young player and as he gets stronger and more mature he will become more dominate . Look for about 25 more pounds and strength increases which will start getting him some D-1 looks . More advanced and more physically impressive than Hammond Russell at the same point . Jr. OLB Collin Smith saw some action and did a good job in limited snaps but 15 pounds and a great Lifting conditioning off-season can make a big difference{ 6-0185{ 200 is a goal} . Soph. DE Max Smith 6-0 190 has potential to be a Sebastian Bramonte type off-season strength and conditioning success story going into his Junior year. He can carry 220 eventually .

Jr. OLB Mitchell Broskie { 6-0 195 } started and was a playmaker, a tough guy and big hitter . State qualifying level Wrestler, good athlete , good instincts and is always a noticeable presence. Just makes plays. Jr. safety Michael Trbovich 5-11 175 got hurt in the first game of the season and didn't come back. He will be a good player back there. These guys are the nucleus of the defense . Not the star power obviously they had the last couple years but has the makings of a nice unit , IF THERE IS THE OFF-SEASON COMMTTMENT.

Maggs has two guys who played a lot to throw to including 2 year guy Jr. Trey Hedderly { 6-0 170 } and Jr. Alex Diehl { 5-11 175 } . Hedderley will have to work to become a go to # 1 receiver unless someone else emerges or comes into the fold . Diehl will improve and expand his role a bit . Maggs is a kid who good athletes should want to play with as he can make the throws and get you the ball.

Running back has been covered the last couple years with D-1 athletes including the last couple with Bryon Threats who was very productive and dynamic . Two guys who have potential to be productive are Soph. Mike Anderson { 5-6 155} who needs to add weight and strength{ Height is obviously out of his control } but runs a bit bigger than he is and has good feet. Jarel Heard a Jr. is a bigger back who I think can be a difference maker somewhere on the field { LB potential but likely needed at RB} at 6-0 185 now he has the size and looks the part , a solid off-season can really be the difference . Think the difference in Dre Kendrick from his last two off-seasons.

Line is the big rebuild, Juniors Holawaty and McDonald both saw limited action due to injury's to others . Both in that 5-11 225- 230 range now . Off -season is huge for them . Some younger guys with more size are there, but need to really work to improve and there are 3-4 kids who have a great opportunity to play here. It will be interesting to see who emerges and shows up at this position .

League is really hard and the Rocks who have made the play-offs 18 of the last 20 years and 12 years in a row will have some gunning for them no question . Going to be a challenging year for the staff trying to rebuild the team after losing so many good players and starters.


A poster who only comes in to offer negative views of the program, never a positive thought , just disagreeable and antagonistic most of the time basically came out and made public that Coach Crabtree is retiring or stepping down around XMAS time . There are a few of these guys of course on most team threads , passive aggressive negative only commentators looking at things from an ONLY negative point of view. They will challenge most positive thoughts and are looking to add negative to any positive view. That goes with the territory of course and everyone has a different point of view or opinion.

Long term runs of success is rare in any sports program . It is HARD to do and maintain. A lot of things have to fall in place . To be a dynasty you need titles and championships . Long runs aren't required to become a dynasty, but most programs that win titles have had some kind of extended run of excellence. 20- 30 year runs are about as long as most extended runs last it seems in most cases. A couple examples are famed Odessa Permian { Friday night lights} who had an incredible dynasty { 6 state titles , 11 finals appearances } in a 30 year run { 1965- 1995} have some good teams in subsequent years but haven't sniffed a title since , I think in the last 25 years they have ONE quarterfinal berth and a handful of non play-off years . Changing times and demographics , super teams in other parts of the state built on collecting tons of talent on a handful of teams etc. have made it impossible for teams from West Texas to win titles or make consistent deeper runs . It their hey day , transfers weren't as much of a thing , kids didn't join forces nearly as much if at all and their system and tradition along with the superior coaching and having some really good players was enough .

CB West from Pennsylvania [Suburb of Philly under legendary coach Mike Pettine } also had a 30 year run of dominance or being a threat most every year . Long Beach Poly near LA has had scores of not only D-1 talent but so many guys play in the NFL , but is now merely a good program. Fallen back to the pack a bit. There run was in that 25-30 year range?


Davidson under Brian White had about 20 years , and is in a transition period. A couple decades of excellence is a huge accomplishment . Dynastic with two state titles . White resigned and probably has anohter coaching job in him . Coach Crabtree has been at Coffman 20 years now . That's a long time these days. Coaches still last longer than this in this era , but it is more rare. Coaches get burned out just like some of us do at certain jobs. Sometimes things just run their course and may be Coach is at the end of the line at this job . I don't know what he will do or not do . That's his business until he makes it public . Not my place to put it out here. I thought the poster had more sense or class than that . He doesn't . He also doesn't care , so it's obvious he pout it out there from his negative attitude towards Coffman point of view. Negative Hearsay quotes from assistant coaches, banging on the HC and questioning the character and heart of the players is common and frequent { Annual at least } from a few of these guys .

So if in fact 20 years at Coffman is all that Coach has to give and is moving on , or he stays , 20 years is a great run at one school . Rocks have probably not won as many play -off games as they would have wanted or been capable of may be including the last couple years . Not dynastic or a program that even got to a final game . Had a few clubs capable of getting there but it just didn't happen. Some really close play-off losses some bad luck , some underachievement is probably fair. Got beat by better clubs sometimes a few blowout play-off losses , but a lot of close losses.

20 years , 18 play-off appearances . Missed in 2005 going 6-4 the year of the Dublin school split with Jerome opening the year before. That was also Coffman's worst record in the last 20 seasons. The other non play-off year they in 2008 they went 7-3 with all losses to play-off teams . Lost to Davidson by 4 points in a very competitive battle , the one bad game they played all year they lost by 10 points to Kilbourne when they were D-1 , and in a do or die week 10 match-up to make the play-offs they lost to Upper Arlington by one point .

I will include this season's shortened version as they went 6-0 in the regular season but in 16 of 20 years Coach's Coffman teams won at least 8 regular season games. Never had a losing season or even a 500 season as 6-4 was the worst year and that happened only once. Pretty consistent wouldn't you say ? Yes there wasn't a title game appearance or championship. Some tough play-off losses . Coaches and program would certainly be looked at differently if these things happened , but there is no denying the 20 years of consistent success .
 
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WJ-OSU-STEELERS

Active member
Winning year after year is extremely difficult. Congrats to Coffman & Coach Crabtree if he does indeed retire (I have no idea if he is or not). 20 years is a good run and it Crabtree stays, I would expect Coffman to make it 21 season.

I do not know the high school all time consecutive winning season streak; West Jefferson had 42 years, 1958 to 1999 with 21 league championships & 3 state titles. I believe it’s the longest Such streak in Ohio and I have not seen one longer in other states but I would assume there are a few. Here is a list of the colleges (D1all the way to D3). A long of great programs and coaches who ran those programs.

Active Consecutive winning season streaks (no 500 seasons)
*RANK-SCHOOL-YEARS-BEGAN
1. Linfield 64 -1956
2. Mount Union 41 -1979
3. Wartburg 27 - 1993
4. Hobart 23 - 1997
5. Wheaton (Ill.) 22 - 1998
6. Louisiana State 21 - 1999
6. Oklahoma 21 - 1999
8. Mary Hardin-Baylor 20 - 200

ALL-TIME Consecutive winning season streaks (no 500 seasons)
*SCHOOL-YRS.-SPAN
1. Linfield 64 1956-2019 (current)
2. Harvard 42 1881-1923
3. Notre Dame, Ind. 42 1889-1932
4. Central, Iowa 42 1961-2002
5. Mount Union, Ohio 41 1979-2019 (current)
6. Princeton 41 1876-1916
7. Florida State 41 1977-2017
8. Nebraska 40 1962-2001
9. Ithaca, N.Y. 40 1971-2010
10. Yale 39 1876-1914
11. Baldwin-Wallace, Ohio 38 1967-2004
12. Alabama 37 1911-1950
13. California-Davis 37 1970-2006
14. Pacific Lutheran, Wash. 36 1969-2004
15. Wittenberg, Ohio 34 1955-1988
16. Florida 33 1980-2012
17. Pennsylvania 31 1888-1913
18. West Chester St., Pa. 31 1940-1972
19. Eastern Kentucky 31 1978-2008
20. Pittsburg State, Kan. 31 1978-2008
21. Dayton, Ohio 29 1977-2005
22. Lycoming, Pa. 29 1975-2003
23. Dickinson State, S.D. 29 1978-2006
24. Virginia 28 1888-1915
25. Oklahoma 28 1966-1993
26. Wisconsin-La Crosse 28 1970-1997
27. Washington & Jefferson 27 1984-2010
28. Montana 26 1986-2011
29. St. John’s (Minn.) 25 1987-2011
 

AHM

Member
Hello Harrycrane

Crabtree might retire. He might not. He’s a legend coach no matter what. But as you say things run their course. If you are really connected to Dublin in any way-which I don’t know that you really are-you would know that things haven’t been comfortable for the past couple of years. As you say things run their course.

It’s not slamming him. It’s stating what has a possibility of happening. You have to know that losing a head coach would impact a program more than anything as you did your very detailed analysis previewing the 2021 Rocks.
 

Rowdy_Rocks

New member
The football team will have it's "Virtual Banquet" next week. The 2021 schedule has open dates for Week 1, 2, and 3. Right now the Rocks play Jerome Week 4 and Groveport Week 5 for non league games.

Harry good write-up for 2021, I'll give my thoughts on it soon.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Hello Harrycrane

Crabtree might retire. He might not. He’s a legend coach no matter what. But as you say things run their course. If you are really connected to Dublin in any way-which I don’t know that you really are-you would know that things haven’t been comfortable for the past couple of years. As you say things run their course.

It’s not slamming him. It’s stating what has a possibility of happening. You have to know that losing a head coach would impact a program more than anything as you did your very detailed analysis previewing the 2021 Rocks.
Connected to Dublin ? Yes . Just a fan of the sports program . You say you really like the coach and are connected. He would be happy to know how you slam him here over the last few years . Are you going to bring up some disgruntled “. Uncomfortable assistant coaches negative views ? Tell the uncomfortable coaches to go somewhere else is my advice to a program they are more comfortable coaching in .
 
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Harrycrane

Well-known member
Things may have been uncomfortable for some people I am sure and I have an idea of the reason , Again ? Go somewhere else . You are the program insider . You talk to coach and the assistants you claim . I don’t . I know some things about what has gone on within the program but I am just a fan . My kids have grown up here , Been in Dublin for a while . I root for everyone here . You don’t . . . You have a negative view and want to accentuate that at this point . You said it was a done deal . Common knowledge . Ok.
 

Iroquois

Well-known member
The football team will have it's "Virtual Banquet" next week. The 2021 schedule has open dates for Week 1, 2, and 3. Right now the Rocks play Jerome Week 4 and Groveport Week 5 for non league games.

Harry good write-up for 2021, I'll give my thoughts on it soon.
Dublin Coffman might have to take a step back with the scheduling in 2021 and try and get a couple of games scheduled where they can get some confidence and reps for the starters since they will be breaking in so many new starters. Scheduling is huge in football , if you can gets some Wins, Confidence, and Game Reps that's huge and will help them once they get to that brutal league schedule.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Dublin Coffman might have to take a step back with the scheduling in 2021 and try and get a couple of games scheduled where they can get some confidence and reps for the starters since they will be breaking in so many new starters. Scheduling is huge in football , if you can gets some Wins, Confidence, and Game Reps that's huge and will help them once they get to that brutal league schedule.
Yes the schedule is huge the first three weeks with a rebuild and an inexperienced team overall. Coaches will have some challenges which good coaches will relish. Off season program will be huge and how much improvement happens in the next 7 and a half months will determine how competitive they will be.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Sign of the times . Buffalo got on the bus to go to Athens to play OU and 2.5 hours in they were called and told the game was called off . They turned around in Mentor to go back to Buffalo . Will OU reimburse for gas ? Pick up their lunch tab ? Good lord .

Ohio State goes to Sparty as a 23.5 favorite . OSU has been a very good first half team and have been outplayed overall in the second half this year in their games . Not a large sample size but there seems to be something there .

Took OSU -12.5 in the first half and a bit on the whole game . MSU offense is very inefficient and will probably make some mistakes , QB not accurate . Let down off of Northwestern big win . Even if a bit short handed OSU dwarfs NW athletically . MSU will have trouble

Purdue - 1.5 over Nebraska - both in desperate shape . Both need a win badly . Better offense with two NFL caliber receivers tilts the scale to about a 6-7 point win .

College teasers are not a thing really for me anyway . But every so often one presents itself pretty clearly like one or two do each week in the NFL.

Two games where the price is a bit steep . But taken up or down 6-6.5 points it’s worth the risk trying to hit both games

Texas - 7. K- State - KSU is reeling and Texas while they play to competition at times is superior here . Laying 7 on the road with them is a bit much though . They will win the game and laying less than a point is insurance


With

NC State. - 6.5 - 7. GA Tech - Same basic premise with NCSU playing to competition and not getting margins just has to win.


Some decent situations later
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Ohio State did a nice job hitting the first half line easily as anticipated and finished finally for us in the second half. Purdue suked getting behind big early and never recovering. Texas cruised scoring 69 points , NC State up 13 at the half . Tennessee was hanging in early but looking shaky now.

Afternoon Big-10 and Big -12 games looking very good with Indiana getting 13.5 even with back-up QB who looks very good by the way is up 14-3 . thought that line was 4-5 too high even with the ACL injury to Penix . I think we can count that one. Indiana is simply better than Wiscky at this point , not sure what that line was about. Iowa State up 21-0 over West Virginia laying 6 should get there as well as it's later third quarter.
Boston College fading a bit getting 6.5 vs Virginia now down 13 but in striking distance as that game gets well into the third as well.


Late games Fresno State + 7.5 over Nevada - had it at 5 and OVER 56 UCLA - Arizona State - ASU first game in a long time and only the second ballgame they have played .UCLA will play faster and looser and ASU can score on them as well. 31-27 gets us there but I think another handful of points could be scored
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Sometimes it's frustrating to win for the day overall but look at the plays in totality and see some very good work , but the day is only 'Good", Most wins were comfortable and most losses were closer or right side wrong result. Thought that Arizona State should have certainly scored more than 18 points with how they moved the football and that game with over 800 yards staying in the 40's was frustrating. Fresno State was the right side as they had 600 yards offense, 200 more than Nevada with 16 more first downs and not only didn't win the game, but didn't cover the 7.5 either. We did get a good break with Tennessee throwing a late TD pass to cover the 17.5 . They were down 18 at the time so it would have been a tough beat. Still not a bad day and a good year overall considering all that is going on.


it was actually a great day in college football with the Coastal Carolina - BYU game typifying this COVID football season. Games getting called off with teams notified while n their way to the game { Buffalo on the bus a few hours away} and these two getting together to play with very little notice . BYU flew 2200 miles . The game was incredible , competitive , and exciting. Reminded me of the ending of the Rams - Titans SB in 2000 with the Titans receiver being tackled at the one{ BYU guy was at the 2} on the last play on a similar type crossing route throw. Carolina O-Line was awesome , the undersized unit can be a real lesson for many HS football teams with smaller O-lines as they simply had better pad level , played the angles and were just very effective going against a bigger unit . Frosh QB was slick with the ball and poised and their defense was 5-6 or more hats to the ball at least on every play it seemed .


Ohio State was very sharp considering the line-up { Center snaps were bad but not surprising } and this game showed the large disparity of the talent levels . OSU finally didn't sleepwalk in the second half after getting a sizeable lead in the first half. Indiana getting 13.5 even without Penix was puzzling as Wisconsin had shown they weren't as good as they appeared in their first couple games and Indiana even with their back-up making his first start was the better team . Indiana has slowly built their team where they have better players than everyone except Ohio State this year. They are LEGIT , this isn't a gimmick or an little engine that could story. Their material is right up there with the big boys .

Clemson should handle Notre Dame in the rematch, but it will be interesting to see if the Irish still get in to the final four. If you can setup a game between top 10-15 teams in 48 hours 2200 miles apart, why not 8 team play-off in this rarest of years? If you want go back to 4 next year .

Late teaser came in for the guys , a rare two on a college card and both came in . Kentucky - 11.5 was a bit high for me to play for a regular unit { half unit } but with the teaser getting it under a TD coupled with Cal getting 9 { teased up to 15.5} was worth the unit. Cal wo outright by 4 and Kentucky blasted downtrodden South Carolina . Then I look up and see Fresno losing by 11 despite never being really stopped offensively with 600 yards ? Ouch.


Chicago - 3 over Detroit - Very un-interesting game to say the least . Would you go if given a ticket? Sitting on the Lake on a cold day with flurries likely by the end of the game ? No thanks . Not sure if I watch much or flip to that game much at all . I will be checking the ticker LOL.

Rock bottom bowl. Bears are about a TD better right now, Lions reeling to the extent that they felt compelled to fire their coach and GM , before the end of the season. Now they would have bene fired at probable 6.00 am the day after the last game but that told us just how bad things were there. Trubisky isn't a top starter , he was a bad draft pick that high . He may be just a good back-up ? But going against this level of secondary he can be effective today . Lions giving up a boat load of passing yards lately . Bears can't run the ball well at all so I see Mitch actually getting into a rhythm here. Lions are a mess on both sides right now . Bears defensive unit is good enough to limit the Lions and win this game on their own . Bears 23 Lions 17 gets the job done .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Las Vegas Raiders - 7.5 over NY Jets -

Raiders fairly predictably were flat off of their tough close loss to the top dog Chiefs , last week in Atlanta . 43-6 flat though? That beatdown offers real clarity and good teams off of embarrassing losses like this are at the least very focused and a bit angry .Raiders are at a play-off berth or not crossroads. Gruden seems to have them moving in the right direction. They aren't a consistently good team yet . That will be next year's step in his building of the Raiders " Program".

Weather is not too bad which is good when a West Coast team plays on the east coast this time of year. Jets are terrible . They played well vs. the Los Angeles Chargers{ Raiders were once called the Los Angeles Raiders playing in the Coliseum before the Rams left for ST Louis where they played in Anaheim } losing by 6 . That probably says more about the Chargers coaching situation than anything else. Jets have lost their games { no wins yet} by an average of 16 points . Raiders may not win by 16 , but that half point hook is there for a reason{ 7.5 } . They want some Jets money.{75percent of it is on LV} This is also a revenge spot for the Raiders who got crushed by the Jets last year 34-3 .Raiders head home for a few games in a row after this game . they are in a push for the play-offs . For a multitude of reasons they aren't even remotely overlooking this game.

Focus ,a bit of fury off of last weeks debacle , a favorable fundamental match-up , and more to play for = a 10-13 POINT Raiders victory here. Jets one favorable match-up is their run stoppers up front vs Raiders run game. Raiders have large advantage when going to the air though that negates that a bit . Last years loss to the Jets pretty much sealed their play-off fate , the Raiders would also be up against it if they lose today. That was then , this is now though. Raiders are two scores better. Playing it straight , but also teasing it down to 1 point playing with

New England + 1.5 [ teased to + 8 } over LA Chargers. - Patriots aren't really a play-off team this season for the first time in quite a while. Theoretically still alive but more dead team flying out west . They have the Rams on Thursday. So they get some nicer weather for a stretch and i think they can win this one but surely not both which is required to stay just on the outside of a play-off possibility. Pats have won three of last 4 losing to Houston on the road by 7. I see that margin being the largest one they lose by here, but anticipate it coming to a kick later in the proceedings .
A peanut on the Pats straight at 1.5 but a full play teased with the Raiders who are a big key for us today.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Got Cleveland on Thursday at +5.5 as some know,{It's now 4 } and like them to play it close to the vest as usual and stay with the Titans who give up points fairly readily at times .Back door open most of the game I am pretty sure at the least. BIG game , a me measuring stick game for them . They may lose but I think they hang in well.

Teased it with Philadelphia +8.5 { to 15 } So Cleveland getting 12 in that play. Philadelphia at +8.5 is a play as well and we hope they show up as everyone is still in it in that division and Philly has played with teams pretty well and GB has played to competition at times .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
LA Rams - 3 Arizona -

No need to overthink here , Rams better roster, have been in a pattern of bouncing back after poor or subpar performances , defense will get after what Arizona does well , Murray is not 100 percent { shoulder} Line is right. San Fran is not a great match-up for the Rams which is why they struggle. Cardinals are not quite there yet, , they couldn't close out the Bills which is why they needed the Hail Mary , 2-3 last 5 with very narrow wins , and the only teams they have handled easily are the Cowboys Jets and the Washington Football team . Rams will win with defense here and bounce back as usual by 7-10 .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
A late almost surreal given the circumstances 77 yard TD run and the Bears blowing a 10 point lead late in a huge rock bottom choke job , took away a possible great day. Raiders were in control as well until they weren't and then they got a lucky last second 46 yard TD heave on man coverage { playing cover 0 on a last play from that distance was surreal and is being talked about big time this morning} but they kind of choked away a win as well . Hitting the teasers with them and Philly and the Patriots and Cleveland { half unit on the Pats straight as well Browns covering the 5.5 winning outright after their best half of football may be ever, and the Rams taking care of business pretty much how we drew it up made it a winning day but it seemed like it should have been better .

NFL is a grind, these games come down to a few plays so often and fortunes change very quickly and in surreal ways sometimes . Browns are 9-3 despite being outscored for the year . This type of thing just doesn't happen very often if at all . Carson Wentz is in worse shape than I thought, he holds onto the ball longer than a day living in Reseda and he looks like he'[s playing with a freeway running through his yard.

Kind of a like an older fighter who can't pull the trigger anymore , doesn't have the confidence to just let the combinations fly . He's not old though, but he has lost his confidence. Hurts actually made some plays and will likely take over the job . Eagles look nothing like that Super Bowl winner just two years ago . Stafford throwing for 400 was not what i saw coming , a 96 yard drive down 10 , then a fumble by Trubisky and a 4 point deficit . Bears bettors were playing for the PUSH at this point but they drove down and of course their receiver catches it , the defender falls down and the receiver still doesn't gain anything after catch as he turns towards the sidelines not even going upfield at all even though he could have ran past the fallen defender .Of course they missed on 4th and a yard and half and that was the ballgame , so in a game of who is the biggest loser ? The Bears cheated were weak and had door dash deliver a double whopper with cheese and two large fries and lost less weight.


Nagy's job is peril? Should be . May be Jim Harbaugh , who is probably a better NFL coach at this point can go there and energize the franchise ? He played for a bit , he's a midwestern guy at heart ? It's an idea .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Ohio State a 30 point favorite over Michigan is something I didn't think anyone thought we would see at any point . Does the weekly Alabama , Clemson and Ohio State point spreads underscore a problem with the system that kind of mirrors tings going on in society with the rich getting richer and more powerful , corporations getting great treatment from the Government and growing more and more powerful? Are these programs 'Amazon " like ? Are they getting the first pick of all recruiting litters and even if they miss on a few guys they ALWAYS will have top 5 classes and more talent than everyone else? More money, better facilities with no end in sight ? It's getting harder to remember when there were say 10 programs capable of going on a run in any given season and grabbing the brass ring.

Is this same time same station college football product really interesting at this point? How many more years will we see the same teams playing each other in a CFB final four? Tedious ? High school power houses at the National level on that national scale are similar. They get a lot of the best players from a certain area if they are private or Catholic schools , and in some states the 'Joining forces" of many in a certain area showing up to the same public powerhouse has been prevalent for a while now. They find the money to get on planes ,go cross country and play each other . They have 15-20 on their 'staff's" . They have double digit D-1 players every year kind of like the top college teams have the most NFL draft picks and eventually starters. Momentum builds , multiple titles, , in the mix EVERY year and the top players automatically attracted to being part of the top few programs who they know will win most of the time and be playing in the biggest games. Good players want to be part of the biggest programs who get the most attention.

I think it's time to letup a bit on the NFC Least as it were as the teams who were all struggling mightily playing at a low level have picked it up and are competitive . Dallas who went on the road and beat Minnesota but then fell hard again, plays tonight. Washington and the Giants have been competitive lately and had big wins on the road vs top teams. WFT beat undefeated Pittsburgh last night and the Giants beat Seattle on Sunday. Philadelphia is still kind of a mess but hasn't been blown out much despite having a QB issue. NFC West is typically slobbered over as being really elite , but on closer examination lately , it's not quite as powerful as they have been portrayed. When playing the AFC east with a rebuilding NE team , Miami who was terrible a year ago , the Bills who have made the play-offs once in a long while , and the JETS JETS JETS JETS , the powerful NFC west is hardly dominant .San Fran has lost to Buffalo and Miami , Seattle barely beat the Patriots and lost to the Bills , Arizona beat Buffalo on a Hail Mary and lost to the Patriots and Dolphins, and the rams have lost to the Bills and Dolphins . They play the Patriots on Thursday.

Early plays

Mississippi State + 7 over Auburn - Tigers fading a bit , losing to Alabama is obviously a no shame situation , and losing to A'M in a competitive game may leave the Tigers a bit weary physically and emotionally as they head to road to play Miss State . 2-6 MSU if you take out the 41-0 loss to Bamma loses by an average of just over 10 points . And has lost by a TD the last two games which were on the road to Georgia in a game we had and won grabbing 26 points and last week to Ole Miss . This one has last few possessions written all over it.


NFL

NY Giants + 2.5 over Arizona - - Teams going in different directions. Last few weeks the Giants have been the better club . This line is telling us that Arizona is about 5.5 points better overall. I have it at more like 2 points . Should be more a pick em . Arizona is 1-4 last 5 with their win coming on the Hail Mary vs. Buffalo . Murray is a bit banged up and the Rams game wasn't quite as competitive as the score may indicate . They lost to Miami at home before that Buffalo game and have lost by 7 at Seattle , 3 at NE and the Rams last week. Fading like a Mid September tan. Giants are playing with confidence and their defense has been excellent. They have played a TON of close games and this one should be competitive as well . Have given up an average of 15 points a game the last 3 weeks . Eagles win was comfortable , the two point win vs. Cincinnati was misleading as the Giants were dominant at times , with huge edge in yardage , but squandered some chances and gave up a Kick off return for a TD . Giants can smell a division title and Arizona has pretty much lost momentum and is reeling a bit. Giants win by a TD ?
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
A beautiful Friday turns to a cloudy rainy Saturday with no OSU-Mich game to tune into. You never really know what games are going to be played from week to week. Patriots are pretty much out of the play-off picture for the first time in ? Didn't make it in 2002 but were in contention the whole way. 2008 when Brady hurt his knee in week one they didn't make it but were in contention the whole way going 11-5 . Rare not to make it in winning 11 . Nice start to the NFL week hitting the UNDER 45 in that one correctly predicting the Patriots wouldn't score more than 13-14 , BUT 3 was certainly not expected .

CFB Saturday has some weather dynamics going as is expected in mid December . Playing 3 UNDERS hoping to hit 2 of them .

UNDER 68.5 Alabama - Arkansas - Bama defense giving up 10 a game last 5 , will really limit this club. Arkansas will try not to give up the big play to a bigger degree than some teams. As long as Bama doesn't go off into the high 50's I think we're in good shape .

UNDER 48.5 Michigan State - Penn State - a bit of weather , a bit of offensive ineptness. Both teams should try to run the rock often , I think it has ugly slugfest written all over it .

UNDER 64.5 VA -Tech - UVA - Both teams especially when the game is close which this one should be , like to run it more often . They get conservative and I think we may see a 60- 65 percent run rate if it stays closer.

ONE Teaser { 6.5 pt's }

Army - 7 { down to minus a half point } - Navy -

with

Wake Forest + 2 { up to + 8.5 } Louisville - Wake can win outright here I believe so getting more than a TD is solid , Army -Navy play very short games with tons of running obviously and the total stays low so I don't like laying much, and it is now 7.5?


Illinois + 14 Northwestern - Illini has bene a good underdog , and this is a rivalry game, weather? not great, Northwestern coming down to earth and is playing in the Title game next week .

Miami - 3 North Carolina - Offense should be plentiful total is 70 , I think Miami has the better defense here and makes that one more stop that will be the difference . NC Run stop front 7 is lacking big time. Miami may be able to limit NC possessions by running it more . Good match-up .


Some later games looking playable, lines may move .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Games played earlier this week

Miss State +. 7 over Auburn. 730

Minnesota + 10. Over Nebraska Minny was ahead

Indiana - 10. Over Purdue Kicking in 10 minutes


Added

USC. -3 Over UCLA. - 7 30

Fla State. - 4 over Duke 4 00

Fresno State - 13.5 over New Mexico 1030
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Indiana - Purdue game obviously is not happening , another game I liked was Cal at Wash State. That was just cancelled as Cal got there and now doesn't play .Game called off two hours before . Only Minnesota hasn't given up 40 + and been an absolute Sieve. Army with the shut out , lost the tease got a tiny bit back with under 37 which went to 36.Wake got close and then promptly gave up two quick TD's . Miami complete no show was surprising , was a good match-up , but one team tackles people and one doesn't ? That's what happens . Florida State up 28-0 then boom gives up 21 and Duke was inside the 20 at the end of the half . Teams with a month off playing teams playing three straight games .


Two games will replace those two . Oregon State + 3 to hopefully not be down 28-0 early 2nd or give up a season high 50 to Stanford . Yes it's been that kind of defensive day for teams I needed to play just passable defense . None has except for Minnesota who had guys out { Bet was against Nebraska more than anything, as them laying 10 seemed like a great value{ It went to 9} Anyway One more total , going OVER this time as money is pouring in on the UNDER in the newly scheduled TCU- LA Tech game that ahs seen a almost 4 point drop to 50.5 .TCU i have scoring 35 at least so LATECH has some lighter lifting { Shot out ?} But the thing is LA Tech will throw it A LOT , and that could provide some turnovers and a longer game .

NFL is a bit less absurd in terms of chaotic last minute scheduling crap and the teams aren't week shaving to play rusty dormant teams, so looking forward to tomorrow and while still ahead for the year in CFB, I can't take the erratic nature of scheduling and performance much longer lol .
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Some wild stuff last night and the last few nights , with the first ever points scored by a female in a D-1 football game , Arizona giving up 70 to rival ASU { Not a huge favorite by the way only 7.5 , just missing the cover by only losing by 63 } of course the coach is having someone update his resume tomorrow morning . Miami giving up about 1000 yards{ school record 778} and 60 was a close second in the biggest OLE defensive effort of the day. I call it the OLE defense as in the defense was just waving sheets at the offensive players as a way of defending them . Miami is not Miami of old when they had a ton of NFL guys all over the field , but they were a one loss team playing in a big game and didn't appear to want to tackle anyone. Literally .

Florida laying an egg vs what looked like a team who had already folded up their tent and left the campsite in LSU as they opted out of a bowl as they have been bad on the field and bad off of the field it appears and self punishing is always an idea the very guilty have . They had more energy than Florida did and their coach has the audacity to suggest that teams are getting credit for NOT PLAYING OR SHOWING UP.? Hey Dan Mullen , you have should have fully committed to not showing up last night. Ouch .

USC if anyone is closely watching them isn't a well coached football team . We lucked out getting that late cover as they missed two 2 point conversions attempting one too early then chasing . Slept walked for three quarters of the game and made a young QB look like Pat Mahomes { I think he was completing 95 percent of his passes at one point, as their own QB was throwing crippling picks .

Illinois fought hard for the duration but only scored 10 points missing the cover by 4 . 3-1 in totals saved the day really { PSU -MSU start playing well on offense with an efficiency not seen previously being the loss} that quagmire of a day is over { win one lose on take a step forward immediately take a backwards step type of day} and it's a new day . I don'[t want to be remiss and not mention one more dog and a few teams that got the job done and one non play that irks me.

Fresno giving up almost 50 to truly awful long suffering New Mexico was bad enough making them only the second team in about 20 games to lose to this dog, but New Mexico had 6 sacks in the entire season coming in to this one . they had EIGHT last night alone and had many other making the QB really hurry situations. { Line moved from 13 to 16 so many people lost this one } Shameful .

Minnesota with players sitting still not only covered the 10 { 9 at KO} but won outright at Nebraska . USC I guess deserves props for coming back in a game they were down 18 in , in the second half and getting the late cover for us , and Florida State the poster program for fading quickly and becoming irrelevant in a NY Minute { Was Jameis Winston there in that CFB Play-off game that long ago?} took care of business against defenseless Duke . of course it was 28-0 quickly and then almost as quickly became 28-21 with Duke in the red zone near the end of the half. They went way backwards after that { I believe they were in a 1st and 40 situation right after getting to the 18 } but the former juggernaut ultimately won comfortably as a 4 pt. favorite. The non play was Oklahoma State which was on the board for me all week but I declined it eventually and even before the Cowboys started scoring at will I regretted it. Works both ways over time , as some on the board you liked for a few days and decline playing lose and you save some dough .


Another NFL game [ Giants over Arizona } involving a hot team coming home off of a big road win is Buffalo. Bills are 5-1 last 6 and only lost on that Hail Mary in Arizona. Their young QB is really starting to 'Get it" and is really taking a big step forward in his development. Pittsburgh has been a very good team overall but they have some issues at the moment. On the road they have only really controlled the game against a weak JAX club who was playing a guy named Juice Luten Free at QB whose dreadful performance may have been something that NFL decision makers might never be able to un-see. In other words does he get anohter legit chance to prove himself as a starter? Anyway , they won't be facing a guy like Juice today. They will be a playing a Varsity QB this week. They really should have lost to Dallas a few weeks back as they were gifted a few big calls by the officials in that one.

The market price for Pittsburgh has adjusted. This game opened at Pittsburgh - 1.5 and that fresh line was gnawed on quickly as if it was a fresh carcass sitting outside a hibernating Lions den. Line has moved 4 points . That's a large adjustment in the NFL . About 80 percent of the money on the side has come in on Buffalo to cover this. They are better right now than Pittsburgh is . They are at home with momentum . Their one big weakness is not stopping the run and Pittsburgh isn't doing that very well at all now. They are barely trying to run it lately .

Bills are not a real strong defensive team overall{ 25th in Total defense} , but they have made up for it with a dynamic playmaker at QB who is completing 70 percent of his passes and who has cut down on his mistakes and turnovers. Bills defense has been pretty good situationally though. Pittsburgh has had a few injury's on defense but remains a good unit overall. 80 percent of the play has been on the OVER { 48.5} Buffalo is an instinctual play here but isn't a lock by any means . Hate the obvious plays but sometimes match-ups , momentum and current state of things makes the play too attractive to pass on. The Bills and this situation are pretty much in this realm .

Playing 4 college totals in one week is pretty much unheard of in my experience , but this is a different year and the normal fundamentals of capping sometimes leave the reservation. At least they have been at times for me. Bottom line is I'm hitting a good percentage of them for whatever reason this year. Same goes for NFL teaser plays . Just banging wins out at a better rate than normal so I stay with things when they are working .NFL teasers are more useful than College teasers as we know and are played more readily by bettors and the linemakers react in part to trying to defend teasers from falling on key numbers . NFL teasers have been coming in at we into the 60' percentage wise so we stick with them , playing a couple more than the usual amount over a few weeks time.

Speaking of that .A teaser using two teams in 1.00 pm starts.

Tampa Bay - I got - 6.5- 7{ 6 pt. down to 1/2 to 1 over Minnesota - Tampa is focused and will play with urgency here. Minnesota has to play to the final whistle to beat everyone . Cook has been used as a work-horse and may be be a bit worn down going against a good defense. Don't fully trust TB to win by a margin may be but just having the get the victory I do. In a game that I think will come down to which QB can make key throws , I trust Tom B to make a couple more plays and get the win .

WITH


Tennessee - 7.5 { down to - 1.5 } - over Jacksonville - JAX plays hard , Mike Glennon actually looks decent making throws in the pocket and they will hang in there and not fold. Tennessee is a solid team who laid such an egg in the first half last week that I think they really focus here and win the first half and grind out a win . Tennessee defense is bad on third down{ one of the few worst in the league} and were unable to get off of the field multiple times vs the Browns in the first half. Hard to trust them laying a large spot on the road although I can see them winning by a few scores here with extra energy off of the loss last week. But I trust them fully to get the win as I do Tampa Bay . So both get the job win , win the ballgames and we cash.

4 : 00 pm start Total

UNDER 44 { Now at 42.5 } New Orleans at Philadelphia - Pretty simple , Hurts vs a great defense will likely not put up more more than say 16- 17 points. Saints would then have to account for about 28 for it to go over . Eagles have given up about 22 a game last 5 .I see the Saints getting no more than 27 here and Philly staying near that 13-14 point total. Eagles with rookie less likely to open it up offensively that will also cut down on potential mistakes that can result in defensive points or setting up easier offensive points. Might have something on the side in some way a bit later closer to game time.
 

Harrycrane

Well-known member
Giants looking like the Giants of the first few weeks . Pathetic really . Bears looking great , line opened with them getting 2 and a half which was the wrong line , wish I had more on it as i had them last week and they choked giving up 14 points in the last few minutes so I didn't trust them them for a full unit . Trubisky looking very good, a long TD run for them as well , 23-7 . Same smaller play on the total in the Carolina - Denver game . it opened at 46.5 too high but the less than full play because of injury report wasn't relaible , McCaffrey and a few others . Both look pretty good although Denver got a 87 yard punt return for a TD and there is 20 points scored at the half. Looks good but certainly no lock . Bears should just quit if they lose this lead . Andy Dalton looking good in his homecoming to CIncy . Cincy with three fumbles are being the Bengals.

Tampa and Tennessee should win which is all that is required . Again , shame on them if they can't finish the job . KC piling on Miami at the moment .
 
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