ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
You can go to joeeitel.com for that. Elder max win out is 35.5701 and min win out is 31.4464. However, Elder had 6 lock wins in week 10. The only ? might be Springboro but they are favored also.
2022 Football Opponent Results
- Thread starter adselder09
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You can go to joeeitel.com for that. Elder max win out is 35.5701 and min win out is 31.4464. However, Elder had 6 lock wins in week 10. The only ? might be Springboro but they are favored also.
EHS 2001
Moderator
Vincent and Regina
Well-known member
I have run the Moeller Numbers.
With that I have to pick some games.
I think Massillon will beat Canton McKinley Moeller gets 0.698925
Trinity should beat Eastern add 0.698925
East Central should beat Edgewood 0.645161
Good Counsel should beat 0-4 Bishop McNamara 0.645161
X beats LCA 0.376344 (this game doesn't matter because West, Elder, and Moeller all beat X)
If LaSalle beats Elder add 0.698925
If Elder beats LaSalle add .0645161 (only one of these two can happen.)
If Iggy beats Football North add 0.537634
If Moeller beats King add 3.506989 (This is not a given King beat Moeller last year in Detroit 39-29)
For purposes of Elder trying to get the #1 seed. I will assume all of Moeller's defeated opponents wins except for LaSalle
That puts Moeller at 40.11989
If Moeller loses to King you are at 36.6129 Still higher than Elder's best at 35.5701
For Elder to jump Moeller all of Elder's defeated opponents need to win AND Moeller must lose to King along with two other defeated opponents with X not being one of the two.
In conclusion, Elder will need A LOT of help to get the #1 seed and very unlikely to happen.
With that I have to pick some games.
I think Massillon will beat Canton McKinley Moeller gets 0.698925
Trinity should beat Eastern add 0.698925
East Central should beat Edgewood 0.645161
Good Counsel should beat 0-4 Bishop McNamara 0.645161
X beats LCA 0.376344 (this game doesn't matter because West, Elder, and Moeller all beat X)
If LaSalle beats Elder add 0.698925
If Elder beats LaSalle add .0645161 (only one of these two can happen.)
If Iggy beats Football North add 0.537634
If Moeller beats King add 3.506989 (This is not a given King beat Moeller last year in Detroit 39-29)
For purposes of Elder trying to get the #1 seed. I will assume all of Moeller's defeated opponents wins except for LaSalle
That puts Moeller at 40.11989
If Moeller loses to King you are at 36.6129 Still higher than Elder's best at 35.5701
For Elder to jump Moeller all of Elder's defeated opponents need to win AND Moeller must lose to King along with two other defeated opponents with X not being one of the two.
In conclusion, Elder will need A LOT of help to get the #1 seed and very unlikely to happen.
boothmark77
Well-known member
Thanks for all of this. Question. I see points are still be factored in for Indiana teams. Do they begin playoffs this week? If so, are their wins still a factor?
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
Yes, those games count for harbins since they have only played 9 games to this point.
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
Football North could pull the upset on St. Ignatius, but I think you're right in the other defeated opponents should win for Moeller. Of course, Moeller would still need to lose to King for any of that to matter.
Moeller will be the #1 unless some unexpected happens.
Elder should be the #2 and Lakota West should be the #3.
As mentioned earlier, there are always some surprised week 10 so we will have to wait and see how it plays out.
One for sure is Elder is hosting round 1 and round 2 in the playoffs at The PIT.
Vincent and Regina
Well-known member
As ElderHSfan02 said the Indiana playoff games will count. Basically the first 10 games a school plays count for harbins IF they are played on our before Ohio's week 10. This is a way more complicated sentence then need be. Had East Central gotten a first round bye, Moeller's Level 2 divisor would have been lowered by 1.
In Kentucky they have 11 weeks to play 10 games. Since they start the same week as Ohio this year, most Kentucky teams have their bye in the middle of the season some where. For Example CovCath had a bye in week 8 and Louisville X had their bye in week 4. They both have games in Ohio week 11 so those games will not count for Elder. Each of those byes lowers Elder's Level 2 divisor by 1. Moeller didn't have to worry about that this year because Trinity had their bye in Ohio Week 11. So they played all 10 of their games before the cut off so no level 2 adjustment.
Another quirk of the system is when an OHSAA member plays a non-member The wins vs the Non member will count as the same size school as the non-member. Moeller benefited by this one this year. Moeller beat Trinity who also beat LaSalle, and X. When X beat LaSalle, Moeller received 6.0 level 2 points. But when Trinity defeated LaSalle, Moeller received 6.5 Level 2 points. This works the opposite way too, and you could lose points. This quirk happens because the OHSAA is lazy.
Good Counsel started a week after Ohio and will only have 8 games played by the OHSAA cut off time. So that will drop Moeller Level 2 divisor by 2. Moeller's final Level 2 divisor will be 93.
The Harbins are a fun math formula to play with. When I get home on Fridays after the game I update Elder's harbin. I look forward and use what I call the running harbin. This number will equal JoeEitel's min Avg (lose out) Joe Eitel has a better computer understanding and he has his mostly automated. Having one Harbin number really doesn't do much. You have to be able to look at it vs others. For example, Elder would be the nubmer one seed in Regions 2 and 3 after week 9. Moeller would only be 2nd in Region 1.
Vincent and Regina
Well-known member
I am fairly confident in my #2 spot, but will admit I am worried about the Springboro vs Miamisburg game. If Springboros loses Elder goes to 3. Heck if any of those games go the other way Elder is #3.
EHS 2001
Moderator
Never mind. I just added up Elder's L2 points and was wrong again. Calculated "correctly" Elder should have 249.5 L2 points, but JoeEitel.com shows them with 251 because of .5 extra points for Louisville St. X's win over Dupont Manual and 1 extra point for Roncalli's win over Chatard. Though I swear at one point Joe Eitel had "fixed the glitch." Maybe the OHSAA told him to keep the bug in there?
Also, Drew Pasteur updated his Region 4 projections earlier this afternoon. He's now projecting bot Elder and Lakota West to reach their Max Win Out points.
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This would be best case scenario for Elder, West, and Princeton and worst case for Moeller IMO. I would also feel a lot more comfortable playing Milford vs Mason.
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
I think St. Ed's just exposed Moeller last Saturday. Just like the NFL is a copycat league, high schools will follow suit.
OnTheLine85
Well-known member
Not at all.
Ed's has the talent to play with Moe. Most teams can use the exact same copycat method against Moe and still lose by 35.
St Ed's is still the premier program in Ohio.
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
Elder doesn't? Lakota West doesn't? I think we will see. Don't overlook St. Xavier who will not go away without a fight.
OnTheLine85
Well-known member
Did you watch the first game? Oh, let me guess, it was over by halftime because Moe cheated. Oh, and played music.
LW has the talent to do it. But not many others.
Omar
Well-known member
Not really, they just have the athletes on Defense to match Moeller’s skill talent.
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
Did you miss the 3 fumbles on 3 consecutive possessions inside their own territory? I have never seen that happen before in all of my years following Elder.
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
There's definitely some truth to that, but there's also some truth Ed's gameplan was the model to beat Moeller who everyone was already handing over the trophy to.
OnTheLine85
Well-known member
And I also saw two running backs, a couple wide receivers, and an OL who would all start tomorrow on Elder's squad.
Let me guess, you also think the Colerain game a few years back was "just a couple plays" too.
You people are delusional.
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
Elder is 7-2 with a good chance to finish 8-2 against one of the toughest schedules in the state. I think you can give them a little credit. It won't hurt you, but you run with a lot of X and Moeller people so you wouldn't want to be caught giving Elder a compliment.
OnTheLine85
Well-known member
I give Elder credit all of the time. You refuse to acknowledge it.
In fact, I give them so much credit, I think they could elevate their program to be a mini St Eds. But the mindset of the people would never allow it. They see it as a threat vs. an opportunity. Always have and probably always will until there is a non-legacy leadership change, which will likely never happen because it would give up too much control for them and theirs.
Vincent and Regina
Well-known member
You were the one that helped me with my spreadsheet formulas.
I do find it odd that the quirk could easily be fixed in some cases, but OHSAA has proven to be both lazy and cheap in the past (aka the Elder Vikings and Elder Cardinals in programs)
Drew's predictions are not well though out. I look at his sight, but see holes. Last week he had Moeller finishing 9-1, but did not have them losing a game in his predections. He just isn't consistant and doesn't factor in out of state games well enough.
Omar
Well-known member
Maybe stop responding to him? Use the ignore feature.
ElderHSfan02
Well-known member
Is your number off slightly? The reason I ask is looking at joeeitel.com He has Lakota West max at 35.25 and min at 34.9 They are guaranteed the 4 GMC wins since their defeated opponents all play each other. The .35 difference should be the St. Xavier win over LCA.
Although it's a small difference, you may want to look at your spreadsheet to see why there's a difference and update it. Is your L2 divisor the same? Currently 97 final will be 95.
Vincent and Regina
Well-known member
I might be off a little. I didn't double check the Moeller sheet. When I saw they need to lose and two of their defeated opponents need to lose I stopped trying. No matter what X does it doesn't matter because it will affect Elder, Moeller, and West the same.
Edit
Looks like somewhere in my calculations I gave Moeller an extra .5 Level 2 point. It appears I found it. I gave X .5 more for their win over 6. So now with a lose to King, Moeller will have 36.55914
I have Moeller final Level 2 divisor at 93. Elder has a final Level 2 divisor of 97.
Edit
Looks like somewhere in my calculations I gave Moeller an extra .5 Level 2 point. It appears I found it. I gave X .5 more for their win over 6. So now with a lose to King, Moeller will have 36.55914
I have Moeller final Level 2 divisor at 93. Elder has a final Level 2 divisor of 97.
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adselder09
Well-known member
Week 10
Cov Cath (6-2) vs. Conner
Pickerington Central (6-3) vs. Reynoldsburg
Springboro (6-3) vs. Miamisburg
St Edward (8-1) vs. Archbishop Hoban
St Xavier KY (7-1) vs. Pleasure Ridge Park
St Xavier (3-6) vs. Life Christian Academy
Moeller (8-1) vs. Detroit King MI
Roncalli IN (8-1) vs. Indianapolis Shortridge
Bishop Chatard (5-4) vs. Northwestern
LaSalle (2-7) vs. Elder
Cov Cath (6-2) vs. Conner
Pickerington Central (6-3) vs. Reynoldsburg
Springboro (6-3) vs. Miamisburg
St Edward (8-1) vs. Archbishop Hoban
St Xavier KY (7-1) vs. Pleasure Ridge Park
St Xavier (3-6) vs. Life Christian Academy
Moeller (8-1) vs. Detroit King MI
Roncalli IN (8-1) vs. Indianapolis Shortridge
Bishop Chatard (5-4) vs. Northwestern
LaSalle (2-7) vs. Elder
Moeller will roll King at home. Their roster tops out at 40, meaning many players go both ways. They lost to Cass Tech in week 8 a team that they rolled earlier in the year. They are the 50th ranked team in the state of Michigan (Max Preps) after dropping 26 places based on their losing to Cass Tech in week 8. They are significantly weaker than last year when they defeated Moeller in Detroit, a game that Moeller should have won. Moeller knows they need this win to secure the #1 seed without having to watch the scoreboard. Last year they (Moeller) were in no position to improve their seeding win or lose. Moeller should win comfortably and be able to pull most of their starters early in the second half. GBM
Omar
Well-known member
Then by that logic, how did Moe lose to Eds, who lost to Massillon, who Moeller beat handily? Even if they only have 40 kids, they have the best QB in the country, that alone should keep this from being a blowout.
EHS 2001
Moderator
Cov Carh leading 28-3
Springboro leading at halftime 20-14
PC up 14-0 at halftime
X leading 3-0
Louisville X leading 28-7
Roncalli up 43-0 in the second quarter
Chatard up 33-7 in the second quarter
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adselder09
Well-known member
Couple of interesting GMC scores:
Fairfield needed a 4th Qtr TD to take a 20-19 lead over Lakota East
Mason took a 3-0 lead over Princeton into the 4th Qtr.
Maybe Mason is a lot better than most of us gave them credit for. And Fairfield and Princeton aren't as strong as we all thought.
For you Harbin number guys, if Mason beats Princeton would they get enough of a bump to jump Milford?
Fairfield needed a 4th Qtr TD to take a 20-19 lead over Lakota East
Mason took a 3-0 lead over Princeton into the 4th Qtr.
Maybe Mason is a lot better than most of us gave them credit for. And Fairfield and Princeton aren't as strong as we all thought.
For you Harbin number guys, if Mason beats Princeton would they get enough of a bump to jump Milford?
EHS 2001
Moderator
I think that’s all probably true.