2022 Football Opponent Results

1965 Panther said:
Whether it was 2 or 3 it was going to be vs Lakota West. Correct?
Click to expand...
Yeah. It flip flopped Elder and Lakota West. According to Drew Pasteur's latest projections, the Firebirds will edge the Panthers for the 2 seed by .28 points. It's the smallest projected margin between two seeds in Region 4 except for Colerain and Lakota East.

1665802272243.png


His site hasn't updated with Oak Hills' win over Lakota East yet. I think he gets his data from JoeEitel.com so it should be in the next round of updates.
 
11:03 PM update. And the #2/#3 flip flop with Lakota West doesn't matter much except who would be home team at a neutral site (Mason) in the third round.
1665803550126.png
 
I missed this at first, but it looks like Mason's win over Fairfield will vault them into the 7th spot which drops St. X to #9 and a visit to Fairfield in the first round.
 
Looking at joeeitel, Elder max win out is 36.9103 and Lakota West max win out is 35.9. Look at Elder opponents week 10 schedule and I see all winning.

Elder will be the #2 seed if they beat Lasalle as long as no upsets happen here.

Week 10 Games
Cov Cath WILL beat Conner
Pickerington Central WILL beat Reynoldsburg
Springboro SHOULD beat Miamisburg(no gimmie but should)
Lou. St. X WILL beat Pleasure Ridge Park
St. Xavier SHOULD beat Life Christian Academy(this is a wash anyway since LW and MOE both beat X also)
Roncalli WILL beat Indianapollis Shortridge
Chatard WILL beat Northwestern

The only game I feel could even possibly go the other way is Springboro/Miamisburg.

Go ahead and lock Elder in at #2 seed.
 
Moeller will be under a lot of pressure week 10 if they slip up against St. Ed's today. Moeller losing twice opens the door for Elder to take #1 seed and it would also put Moeller and Lakota West on the same side of the bracket.
 
As of today it looks like Elder #2 would open up at home against Oak Hills #15 at the Pit. That would be a fun opening round game.
 
I think we can start looking at potential round 1 and round 2 playoff opponents for Elder.

#2 seed plays #15 seed in round 1. Elder will then play the winner of the #7 and #10 seeds in the 2nd round.

If Oak Hills loses to Middletown next week, we could see Oak Hills visiting Elder in round 1. It's a toss up, but I see Oak Hills winning at home which moves them up from #15. Lebanon will lose to Winton Woods which puts them in a tight position between the loser of Oak Hills/Middletown. Hamilton should beat 0-9 Sycamore but it's not out of the question to see Sycamore upset here. Lakota East will lose to Fairifeld which puts them no higher than a 16. Sycamore and Walnut Hills are already mathematically eliminated. West Clermont looks like a toss up vs. Loveland. Colerain will lose to Lakota West.

I think it is very likely for Elder to host either Lebanon, Middletown, or Hamilton depending on how the L2 points go for each. Of course, if Middletown beats Oak Hills which could very well happen, then Oak Hills would be in the mix for #15.
 
#7 seed will be either Mason or Fairfield facing a #10 seed who could be any one of a number of teams. But, that would change if Mason upsets Princeton.

I feel pretty comfortable saying Elder will play Mason or Fairfield in Round 2 at The PIT.
 
I should add I've learned over the years nothing happens as you expect. You might as well just wait until Joe Elder comes on post game next Friday. It is fun to look at and guess though.
 
ElderHSfan02 said:
I should add I've learned over the years nothing happens as you expect. You might as well just wait until Joe Elder comes on post game next Friday. It is fun to look at and guess though.
Click to expand...
We've already seen one result that turned some heads and threw some predictions out the window in Mason beating Fairfield. From the highlights on the news last night it looked like Fairfield was missing their starting QB for a portion of the game, but Mason was opening up some big holes against the FF defense.

As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, Drew doesn't include the OOS teams in his predictions, only Ohio schools. So I believe when you include the KY and IN schools, and they win as someone else projected then Elder should get the #2 seed, so long as they take care of business vs the Lancers.
 
I decided to create a spreadsheet to double check some Harbin math. You can see it here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AE-arFXSLxrJsTWO4h5xqZSYed4ovbU2AP0eSb1OueM/edit?usp=sharing

Elder currently has 43 Level 1 points and 251 Level 2 points for a Harbin average of 30.3900. Elder's current L2 divisor is 98, but the final L2 divisor will be 97.

Still to go in week 9, La Salle faces Detroit Catholic Central and St. Xavier hosts Cleveland St. Ignatius. If St. Xavier wins, Elder receives an additional 6.5 L2 points. That would give Elder a Harbin average of 31.0533 going into week 10. We'll assume La Salle will lose to DCC today.

Assuming that Elder wins over La Salle next week, Elder will get 6 L1 points and 6.5 L1 points for La Salle's week 1 win over Colerain. The Panthers would then have 49 Level 1 points and 264 Level 2 points.

Assuming Cov Cath wins over Conner, Elder gets 6 L2 points.
Assuming Pick Central wins over Reynoldsburg, Elder gets 6.5 L2 points.
Assuming Springboro wins over Miamisburg, Elder gets 6.5 L2 points.
Assuming Louisville St. X wins over Pleasure Ridge Park, Elder gets 6.5 L2 points.
Assuming St. Xavier wins over Life Christian Academy, Elder gets 3.5 L2 points.
Assuming Roncalli wins over Shortridge, Elder gets 6 L2 points.
Assuming Chatard wins over Northwestern, Elder gets 5 L2 points.

That would give Elder a total of 307 Level 2 points and combined with the aforementioned 49 Level 1 points would provide a final Harbin average of 36.2402.

While week 10 has a favorable outlook for Elder's defeated opponents, it's an even sunnier forecast for Lakota West who currently have 58.5 Level 1 points, 232 Level 2 points and a final L2 divisor of 100. We can make the same assumptions for the Firebirds regarding St. Xavier (wins over St. Ignatius and LCA). Due to the nature of the GMC's scheduling, the rest of Lakota West's opponents play one another next week with Lakota East vs. Fairfield, Sycamore vs. Hamilton, Oak Hills vs. Middletown, Princeton vs. Mason, and Lakota West playing Colerain. Let's assume Fairfield, Hamilton, Oak Hills, Princeton, Fairfield and Lakota West all win. That would give Lakota West 65 Level 1 points and 294 Level 2 points for a final Harbin average of 35.9000 points.

Those two final numbers would put Elder slightly ahead of Lakota West for the #2 seed in Region 4. However, if any of Elder's opponents lose in week 10--or if Chuck Kyle wins his final Jesuit Bowl, that would be enough for Lakota West to take the second spot.

If La Salle wins today against Detroit Detroit Catholic Central, that would give Elder a little wiggle room for the second seed meaning that one--but only one--opponent could lose in week 10.

That's what I got. Let me know if my math is off.
 
La Salle down 31-21 with about 2 minutes to go in the fourth. The Lancers are driving, though.

Update: La Salle loses 31-21.
 
Last edited:
So I ran the math If all of Elder's defeated opponents win AND Elder beats LaSalle on Friday this is what each one will add to the the final Harbin total.

Cov Cath 0.61857
Pick Central 0.670103
Springboro 0.670103
Louisville X 0.670103
X 0.360825
Roncalli 0.618557
Chatard 0.515464
LaSalle 1.270103

This will also take our Harbin total from 30.17629 to 35.5701

So on Friday Night start with 30.17629 then for every win that a team has add their total and you will have the harbin score.
 
Now I looked at Lakota West.

Assuming they beat Colerain They will get 3.25 points from them.
Assuming X beats LCA They will get 2.9 Points. (This game doesn't matter in this because if X loses, Elder will lose these points too)

The rest of the GMC on Friday is this.
Princeton vs Mason
Sycamore vs Hamilton
Lakota East vs Fairfield
Oak Hills vs Middletown

So we know half the teams will win and half will lose, all are D1 so West will get 26 Level 2 points. So West should finish with 35.25 points.

In other words if ANY of Elder's defeated oppoents lose West is 2 Elder is 3. Some of this was already said by EHS 2001, I Just like playing with the numbers.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top