Harrycrane
Well-known member
What’s not fair about the election ?
Ohio In Play?
- Thread starter Obi-Wan
- Start date
Guillotine
Well-known member
There's no doubt in my mind you'll be answering your own question on November the 5th.
Obi-Wan
Active member
Provides us a glimpse of the actual breakdown by party affiliation. I’ve got to imagine the large number of independents is mostly students. Gen Z does not tend to identify with a party as much as their predecessors.
Despite the comments from the cult leaders on here, Ohio is a toss up and moving Biden’s way. Besides the polls consider -
1. Well to do who should be Rs are openly supporting Biden
2. Women are up in arms against the moron in the WH
3. Nonwhites are voting in person early. They are heavy for Biden.
4.Mail in ballots from Ds are not being held. They are in or mailed already.
5.Turnout May be a record this year. That is always D favored.
while race will influence the election, under Rump, it has become a class issue. Rump has attracted lowlifes, especially smokers, drinkers, druggies and Gun nuts who had little but don’t understand were their limited money went. Rump truly loves the uneducated as he can easily manipulate them, tell them anything and expect them to be loyal while he loots the country. Only in America.
In 20 days, it should become very clear.
1. Well to do who should be Rs are openly supporting Biden
2. Women are up in arms against the moron in the WH
3. Nonwhites are voting in person early. They are heavy for Biden.
4.Mail in ballots from Ds are not being held. They are in or mailed already.
5.Turnout May be a record this year. That is always D favored.
while race will influence the election, under Rump, it has become a class issue. Rump has attracted lowlifes, especially smokers, drinkers, druggies and Gun nuts who had little but don’t understand were their limited money went. Rump truly loves the uneducated as he can easily manipulate them, tell them anything and expect them to be loyal while he loots the country. Only in America.
In 20 days, it should become very clear.
JUSTGOPLAY
Well-known member
Damn......there goes the neighborhood.
I'm not sure they are students but probably under 30. I was kind of surprised that the number of Dems wasn't higher. I don't think that is good news for Biden.
4GX
Well-known member
WRITTEN DOWN— and will remind you of this, in exactly 4 weeks... anyone who thinks this election is a carbon copy of the last one is going to be in for a rude surprise on Nov. 4...
4GX
Well-known member
Was that RCP poll specific to Ohio-- because that’s the only relevant data point that matters in this thread’s discussion... I’d like to know where to look that poll result up, if you have it available. And then I‘d like to see what an RCP poll for Ohio said in mid-October of 2016– as THAT (not August/September) is what would be the relevant comparison for this election at this point in time (which is what Obi-Wan is commenting on, in his thread-initiation post).
4GX
Well-known member
This Trafalgar Group, despite its notoriety for getting ONE state (MI) right (counter to some other pollsters) in 2016, has an overall mediocre grade for its polling accuracy (from 538.com)— and it is based in Atlanta GA, and has very clear bias in its polling preferences (much like Rasmussen) for Republican candidates— so I wouldn’t read much into this data point— and I certainly wouldn’t read anything into what is happening in OH, from what is happening in MI.
4GX
Well-known member
I believe Biden was here just this week, in Cincinnati.
4GX
Well-known member
This week, in fact– Cincy.
4GX
Well-known member
I too live in the suburbs, in SW Ohio— and in my suburb (which is one of the more affluent ones—NOT one where many people are benefiting from government-run economic/financial wealth redistribution programs), Biden signs far outnumber Trump signs— I feel like I am getting a true survey, too, because, as a result of the virus, I have been walking neighborhood for the last ~7 months— and have walked 90% of the streets in my community over the last month.
BTW, the polls are not “notoriously wrong”—they were wrong in 2016– but that is what made that election result so noteworthy— most elections, the AVERAGE of all the polls (a much better statistical indicator than any one poll) is spot on... and you (if you are a Trump supporter) should take cold comfort in that prospect for this election— most all of the pollsters have re-jiggered their survey processes and their statistical inference algorithms, to account for the things they (admittedly) missed about Trump voters in 2016– so there is much less likelihood of a hidden Trump voter reversing the indications of their polls in THIS election than there was in the LAST election.
4GX
Well-known member
And yet— here Biden WAS– IN THE FLESH– just this week in Cincy (a formerly rock-ribbed Republican stronghold for DECADES—but now outfitted with 3 [out of 3] Democratic Commissioners [the most powerful local office] in Hamilton County, the county containing ~75% of Greater Cincinnati’s population)...
4GX
Well-known member
It is NOT voting against your own interest to vote in favor of protecting/retaining our Constitution, and respecting both the rule of law, and the separation of powers, and the system of checks and balances, contained within that document. Some people view that as more important— and more in their own interest— than simply voting on economic/pocketbook issues. Clearly, Wolves82 is one of these people.
4GX
Well-known member
Amen, Brother!
4GX
Well-known member
I believe you meant the poll was from 9/30 to 10/2...
4GX
Well-known member
I don’t think they are convinced of that (at least the non-delusional ones) at all— I think your second statement is more accurate— Trump has squandered his (formerly) huge financial advantage— and Biden has been outraising him for months now.
4GX
Well-known member
This is a commentary on the myopia of your view... Obama did not do anything ”to take the presidency away from the duly elected president”— Obama abided by the Electoral College vote— and duly left office on Jan. 20, 2016, when Trump was sworn in- those are the key components of executing a peaceful transition of power in this country— everything else that Trump keeps bloviating on about, regarding the FBI, is both nonsense and irrelevant to the discussion of a “peaceful transition of power”.
And Trump saying that he will “abide by a FAIR election” is such a vague and (with him) loaded statement— ALL candidates say that— the problem is that Trump has tried to characterize mail-in voting ballots (of which there will be more this time than any other election) as inherently fraudulent—despite the fact that EVERY SINGLE effort (whether by actual election officials, academic researchers, or by Trump’s OWN hand-picked election fraud committee, chaired by Kris Kobach) to find, identify, and document voting fraud (whether with mail-in ballots or with voter identification during in-person voting) has come up with pitifully small evidence of any such fraud... which strongly suggests that Trump will find some Trumped-Up reason to claim that THIS election is not FAIR (of course he will— he‘s ALWAYS whining about how unfairly everyone treats him, despite being born with more privilege in his life than 99.9999% of all Americans)— and then he will contest it, through formal legal means, seeking to overturn the result that he does not like— with no substantive, evidentiary reason for doing so.
4GX
Well-known member
I hope she’s on the Court by then— but the court SHOULD have no role in this election result.
4GX
Well-known member
I can attest FIRST-HAND to the first two bullet-points— I’m seeing it in spades all around me...but anecdotes are for suckers...Polls are not NEARLY as inaccurate as Trump supporters want to continue to believe they are— THAT is the unavoidable, cold, hard truth that is going to come home to roost on Nov. 3.
Stirred not Shaken
Well-known member
Trump is spending much more money on the internet esp. Facebook than Biden. People can criticize FB but the reality is millions of Americans go on FB everyday. This is why the Dems. want to control social media groups like FB, because people can still express their political views where with TV except for FOX they ( Liberals ) control the news flow.
Orin Swift
Well-known member
Orin Swift
Well-known member
Not sure I'd call 6.5% "much more money." An article from 5 days ago:
Happygoluckky
Well-known member
Ohio Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Guillotine
Well-known member
Guillotine
Well-known member
Guillotine
Well-known member
NewOldBlood
Well-known member
I also live in a more affluent community and I also walk quite often and I see very few Biden signs. Probably in the range of 10/15 to 1. I am not a Trump supporter per say, but I will be a Trump voter again in 2020. This will only be the second time in my life I have voted Republican, but I refuse to get on board with the current direction of the Democratic party specifically my fear that Biden won't be able to complete his term and his too far-left running mate will take over in his absence. I personally think polls can be manipulated and I think regardless of what side of the aisle you sit on, we can agree that in the last several years a lot of manipulation of facts/news/statements has taken place in an attempt to slander both sides and steer people's opinions in certain directions.
JUSTGOPLAY
Well-known member
No doubt....4GX must have been hammering the adderall, and stayed up all night posting Orange Man Bad to anyone who would listen.
What, are you a child? All of us are guessing at this and a lot of us will be wrong. It's the nature of the beast. Predicting political outcomes is a lot like predicting sports outcomes - it's fun but none of us are all that good at it.
Hell the key events that will drive this election may not have happened yet.
It's certainly reasonable to conclude that so far and in spite of massive differences in whats going on in the world the 2020 election has many similarities to the 2016 election.
BTW were you one of those who thought Trump would win in 2016? If not then shut the hell about other peoples predictions.