The Official 2019 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Indiandad said:
Not all WAR is equal...
WAR for each position on each team is different (depending on who's WAR you're using).
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement so the guy backing up a position is taken into consideration.
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I should have put it in better context. Soroka’s WAR puts him in a tie for 7th for all pitching WAR for MLB (3rd in NL). Alonso’s WAR is also impressive but it puts him in the top-15 for position players in NL.

As I said, both are deserving. I could flip a coin. However, I know the media will overwhelming vote Alonso as ROY.
 
Indiandad said:
Not all WAR is equal...
WAR for each position on each team is different (depending on who's WAR you're using).
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement so the guy backing up a position is taken into consideration.
Click to expand...
It’s comparing the player to the average theoretical backup. Not comparing Joey Votto to the Reds backup first baseman.
 
eastside_purple said:
I should have put it in better context. Soroka’s WAR puts him in a tie for 7th for all pitching WAR for MLB (3rd in NL). Alonso’s WAR is also impressive but it puts him in the top-15 for position players in NL.

As I said, both are deserving. I could flip a coin. However, I know the media will overwhelming vote Alonso as ROY.
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No doubt those two are heads and shoulders above the rest right now.

Although Alonso could have a terrible final month and probably still win. Soroka would drop out of the conversation with a bad final month. So is the plight of a pitcher I guess.
 
Indiandad said:
I realize it isn't sustainable, just having a little fun.

I pointed out earlier in the thread that Aquino has been very good at driving in runs WITHOUT the HR. That's something most rookie power hitters struggle at.
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I know. It’s insane. As good as Votto has been the past 10 years, he’s a bit of a bore. Aquino is electric.
 
Monclova Steve said:
After 8 1/2 innings I actually started watching something else. Reds with a 1-run lead against the dregs of the NL and Iglesias coming in for the save.

At 2am I had to make the nightly trip down the hall, so I went online to read the final box score and .......WHAAAAT?
Oh well, that's why they'll end up with about 76 wins.
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This is incredible. Once again, exactly one week later, I turned off the Reds game in the top of the 9th to do something else. Once again, I came back later to just check out the box score; and YES, IT HAPPENED AGAIN -- and with the same pitcher (Iglesias) :mad:.
His last several outings have been an absolute joke.
Another tremendous outing by Sonny Gray goes down the tubes. Aaaaarrrrgggghhhh.
 
Monclova Steve said:
This is incredible. Once again, exactly one week later, I turned off the Reds game in the top of the 9th to do something else. Once again, I came back later to just check out the box score; and YES, IT HAPPENED AGAIN -- and with the same pitcher (Iglesias) :mad:.
His last several outings have been an absolute joke.
Another tremendous outing by Sonny Gray goes down the tubes. Aaaaarrrrgggghhhh.
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Sonny Gray now sports a 2.80 ERA. Good for 5th best in the NL.

It's time to give Stephenson a shot at closing. His slider is nasty. He has been rock solid in 51 of his 54 innings this year. He had 3 straight appearances where he gave up 5, 2, 2. Aside from that he's been tremendous.
 
Indiandad said:
Sonny Gray now sports a 2.80 ERA. Good for 5th best in the NL.

It's time to give Stephenson a shot at closing. His slider is nasty. He has been rock solid in 51 of his 54 innings this year. He had 3 straight appearances where he gave up 5, 2, 2. Aside from that he's been tremendous.
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Totally agree. Stephenson has the type of stuff to be a closer. This team is going nowhere, so no reason not to let him try for the rest of the year.
 
Indiandad said:
Not all WAR is equal...
WAR for each position on each team is different (depending on who's WAR you're using).
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement so the guy backing up a position is taken into consideration.
Click to expand...
Incorrect.
WAR is wins above a theroetical MLB average player at the same position. It has nothing to do with the backup on a given team.
 
Go look at the MLB list of pitchers, and sort on the Loss column. Lots of starting pitchers have 9 or 10 losses or more, especially those on bad teams. Raisel is the only reliever anywhere on the list that high. 11 losses for a closer is unprecedented in my eyes. Reds need to use Sept to find next year's closer. I nominate Amir or Lorenzen for first shot.
 
Last night I saw a list of the longest consecutive streak of pitching starts allowing 6 or less hits. Of course Nolan Ryan has the record with 31. Luis Castillo was 3rd or 4th on the list with 28, between 2018 and 2019. That streak just ended. Sonny Gray has like 26 and that streak is still alive. Plus Sonny has allowed 4 or fewer runs in every start this year. Incredible consistency.
 
nd2000 said:
Totally agree. Stephenson has the type of stuff to be a closer. This team is going nowhere, so no reason not to let him try for the rest of the year.
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I agree Stephenson has great stuff, never been in question. Between his ears is the problem. Never has seemed to handle pressure well either.
 
wolves82 said:
I agree Stephenson has great stuff, never been in question. Between his ears is the problem. Never has seemed to handle pressure well either.
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Agree, but he can’t be any worse than Iglesias and maybe the role clicks with him. What’s the point of this last month anyway other than to see who can fill what role? Trotting Iglesias our there again and again is just stupid.
 
eastside_purple said:
Agree, but he can’t be any worse than Iglesias and maybe the role clicks with him. What’s the point of this last month anyway other than to see who can fill what role? Trotting Iglesias our there again and again is just stupid.
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I like keeping Lorenzen and Garrett for the most critical situations. Giving Stephenson a clean inning seems to work best for him.
 
Iglesias has pretty much been sucking for most of the year but, looking at his performance in 2016, 2017, and 2018, I'm not ready to chuck him over the side (although I was ready to do it myself last night lol).
His contract is also an issue. He is signed for through 2021 @ approx. $9M/yr.
The question is what do the Reds do with him?
a) Release him and eat the contract.
b) Trade him for.....well, what is his trade value? Answer -- just about zero.
c) Have him work with Johnson and Cotham to resolve his issues.

Alex, I'll go with c. What do we have to lose in the long term?

As for who closes? I could not care less right now. Sure, it can't hurt to try Stephenson.
 
Monclova Steve said:
Iglesias has pretty much been sucking for most of the year but, looking at his performance in 2016, 2017, and 2018, I'm not ready to chuck him over the side (although I was ready to do it myself last night lol).
His contract is also an issue. He is signed for through 2021 @ approx. $9M/yr.
The question is what do the Reds do with him?
a) Release him and eat the contract.
b) Trade him for.....well, what is his trade value? Answer -- just about zero.
c) Have him work with Johnson and Cotham to resolve his issues.

Alex, I'll go with c. What do we have to lose in the long term?

As for who closes? I could not care less right now. Sure, it can't hurt to try Stephenson.
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I'd look to make him a starter next season.
 
Well the auditions for Garrett and Lorenzen did not go so well today... I could support giving Stephenson a shot in Sept to see if he can handle it.
 
We wring our hands over the bullpen and closer's role and we really shouldn't. If you look around many teams, even in our own division struggle in the bullpen. And it makes sense in a way because bullpen guys are largely failed starters who don't start because A. they can't pitch more than a few innings, or B. they don't command enough pitches to be a starter. So the reason they are bullpen guys is because they only face batters once. It's the whole mindset of analytics. Stats show the less you face a guy, the probability of success goes up. It's why starters don't go more than 5-6 innings. The third time through the lineup is the killer for starters.
So bullpen guys are generally up and down all season. They have a short time to either do the job or screw up. I'm always skiddish on Garrett because he relies on guys to swing at pitches out of the strike zone to get them out. If you are patient, you can get ahead in the count on him and either get a cookie or walk.
 
Red14 said:
We wring our hands over the bullpen and closer's role and we really shouldn't. If you look around many teams, even in our own division struggle in the bullpen. And it makes sense in a way because bullpen guys are largely failed starters who don't start because A. they can't pitch more than a few innings, or B. they don't command enough pitches to be a starter. So the reason they are bullpen guys is because they only face batters once. It's the whole mindset of analytics. Stats show the less you face a guy, the probability of success goes up. It's why starters don't go more than 5-6 innings. The third time through the lineup is the killer for starters.
So bullpen guys are generally up and down all season. They have a short time to either do the job or screw up. I'm always skiddish on Garrett because he relies on guys to swing at pitches out of the strike zone to get them out. If you are patient, you can get ahead in the count on him and either get a cookie or walk.
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So you're saying we should be ok with bullpen guys sucking?
 
Red14 said:
We wring our hands over the bullpen and closer's role and we really shouldn't. If you look around many teams, even in our own division struggle in the bullpen. And it makes sense in a way because bullpen guys are largely failed starters who don't start because A. they can't pitch more than a few innings, or B. they don't command enough pitches to be a starter. So the reason they are bullpen guys is because they only face batters once. It's the whole mindset of analytics. Stats show the less you face a guy, the probability of success goes up. It's why starters don't go more than 5-6 innings. The third time through the lineup is the killer for starters.
So bullpen guys are generally up and down all season. They have a short time to either do the job or screw up. I'm always skiddish on Garrett because he relies on guys to swing at pitches out of the strike zone to get them out. If you are patient, you can get ahead in the count on him and either get a cookie or walk.
Click to expand...

A lot of words that add up to ... nothing useful. What are you saying? All bullpens are bad so no point trying to make it better?

Show me another closer with 11 losses. You can't. Show me another closer with more than 10 save opportunities and more than 6 losses. You can't. Edwin Diaz and Wade Davis have 6 losses each in the full-time closer role. They tie for second worst.

This is a problem unique to the Reds that they need to solve in the off season.
 
wolves82 said:
A lot of words that add up to ... nothing useful. What are you saying? All bullpens are bad so no point trying to make it better?

Show me another closer with 11 losses. You can't. Show me another closer with more than 10 save opportunities and more than 6 losses. You can't. Edwin Diaz and Wade Davis have 6 losses each in the full-time closer role. They tie for second worst.

This is a problem unique to the Reds that they need to solve in the off season.
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But in short stints this season, Iglesias has been good, as well at Lorenzen, Hughes, Garrett and most of our bullpen. Heck, even Peralta was decent for awhile. So my point is and if you look around, most teams have had ups and downs with their bullpens, it's the nature of the beast. That's why a guy like Chapman is so special.
 
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