The Official 2019 Cincinnati Reds Thread

wolves82

Active member
Just to be clear, let's remove eye-tests and opinion and use numbers.

Ervin has 103 AB vs. righties this year, and only 63 AB vs. lefties. That surprised me. He absolutely mashes lefties as we all have said, batting .365 with 1.087 OPS and .420 OBP. Stellar numbers. Against righties, he is OK, batting .255 with .320 OBP and .753 OPS.

Winker on the other hand is god-awful against lefties, sub-Mendoza line, so we won;t go there at all. He has 293 AB versus righties, with .285 / .368 / .887, including 16 HR. He is far more effective against RHP than Ervin. So the platoon seems to be the best idea. But if need be, Ervin can play against righties and be somewhat effective.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
Just to be clear, let's remove eye-tests and opinion and use numbers.

Ervin has 103 AB vs. righties this year, and only 63 AB vs. lefties. That surprised me. He absolutely mashes lefties as we all have said, batting .365 with 1.087 OPS and .420 OBP. Stellar numbers. Against righties, he is OK, batting .255 with .320 OBP and .753 OPS.

Winker on the other hand is god-awful against lefties, sub-Mendoza line, so we won;t go there at all. He has 293 AB versus righties, with .285 / .368 / .887, including 16 HR. He is far more effective against RHP than Ervin. So the platoon seems to be the best idea. But if need be, Ervin can play against righties and be
Just to be clear, let's remove eye-tests and opinion and use numbers.

Ervin has 103 AB vs. righties this year, and only 63 AB vs. lefties. That surprised me. He absolutely mashes lefties as we all have said, batting .365 with 1.087 OPS and .420 OBP. Stellar numbers. Against righties, he is OK, batting .255 with .320 OBP and .753 OPS.

Winker on the other hand is god-awful against lefties, sub-Mendoza line, so we won;t go there at all. He has 293 AB versus righties, with .285 / .368 / .887, including 16 HR. He is far more effective against RHP than Ervin. So the platoon seems to be the best idea. But if need be, Ervin can play against righties and be somewhat effective.
I said that a couple weeks ago.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
The problem for the Reds and Ervin is Winker is pretty effective against lefties. If Ervin wants to be a full time player, he has to be better than okay against RHP. He’s what 26, 27? If he’s going to figure it out, it has to be this year or next. Otherwise he and Winker will be platoon guys the organization will seek to replace with a legit full time player and send them to them to the bench.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
The problem for the Reds and Ervin is Winker is pretty effective against lefties. If Ervin wants to be a full time player, he has to be better than okay against RHP. He’s what 26, 27? If he’s going to figure it out, it has to be this year or next. Otherwise he and Winker will be platoon guys the organization will seek to replace with a legit full time player and send them to them to the bench.
You can't consider yourself a legit contender next season with so many positions in need of upgrades. LF being a key one needing upgraded.
 

nd2000

Active member
You can't consider yourself a legit contender next season with so many positions in need of upgrades. LF being a key one needing upgraded.
I even feel like Catcher is a position that is in need of an upgrade. Barnhart and Casali just aren’t very good offensive players over the course of the season. 1B is also a problem in my opinion, but that ain’t changing. It’s a major handicap.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
I even feel like Catcher is a position that is in need of an upgrade. Barnhart and Casali just aren’t very good offensive players over the course of the season. 1B is also a problem in my opinion, but that ain’t changing. It’s a major handicap.
I was told Realmuto wasn’t really an upgrade over Barnhart by posters on here when I advocated for that trade. Lol
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
I was told Realmuto wasn’t really an upgrade over Barnhart by posters on here when I advocated for that trade. Lol
Definitely an upgrade but not worth the cost.

It would have taken Trammel and a lot of money next year which means no Bauer.
Maybe that would have been a better move but not if Bauer gets his chit together.
 

wolves82

Active member
The problem for the Reds and Ervin is Winker is pretty effective against lefties. If Ervin wants to be a full time player, he has to be better than okay against RHP. He’s what 26, 27? If he’s going to figure it out, it has to be this year or next. Otherwise he and Winker will be platoon guys the organization will seek to replace with a legit full time player and send them to them to the bench.
Is that what you meant to type? because in my book, 43 ABs with 0 HR, BA=.163 with OBP=.280 is not the least bit effective against lefties.

I agree with the overall sentiment that a LF upgrade is needed, but if we don't, the platoon will be effective.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Is that what you meant to type? because in my book, 43 ABs with 0 HR, BA=.163 with OBP=.280 is not the least bit effective against lefties.

I agree with the overall sentiment that a LF upgrade is needed, but if we don't, the platoon will be effective.
I meant rhp. Thanks for the catch.
 

Red14

Member
Another wasted season by the Reds....
Yes, because they were projected to win the division and make the world series this year?? Seriously? Last season, Suarez was learning to play 3rd base full time. He's now one of the most feared hitters in the national league.
Now next season, if we are in 4th place and not contending, it's a wasted season. I really like our team going into 2020.
 

wolves82

Active member
I agree that I feel good about our rotation for 2020: Castillo, Grey, Bauer, Disco stacks up well against most everyone except LA and Houston.

However, you can't feel great about the offense - we were mostly healthy this year and still only 22nd in runs scored, 22nd in OBP, 21st in OPS. Not a good offensive team at this point. Need more production from LF, C, 2B for sure. 3B and RF are really the only positions I would list as "very productive".
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
Yes, because they were projected to win the division and make the world series this year?? Seriously? Last season, Suarez was learning to play 3rd base full time. He's now one of the most feared hitters in the national league.
Now next season, if we are in 4th place and not contending, it's a wasted season. I really like our team going into 2020.
Where do you see improvement for next year to justify an expectation for contending next year?
 

Monclova Steve

Well-known member
Actually, I can see the Reds contending next year. All that needs to happen is:
1) The starting rotation includes Sonny Gray continuing his incredible performance; Trevor Bauer throws off his current performance issues and returns to what he did in Cleveland; Disco keeps getting better, along with Castillo.
2) The Reds' bullpen finds guys to rely on besides Garrett, Lorenzen, and Iglesias (of course, Lorenzen and Garrett will repeat or improve on 2019 and Iglesias will work out all of his issues to become a dominant closer.
3) The Reds who had "best of career" seasons like Iglesias and Suarez will do it again -- and this assumes Iglesias re-ups with the Reds, which is not probable at this point).
4) The Reds who had poor offensive seasons (Votto & Barnhart) will magically return to their former statistical selves.
5) The young players all continue to improve.
6) Of course, none of the prime performers loses much time to injury.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
Actually, I can see the Reds contending next year. All that needs to happen is:
1) The starting rotation includes Sonny Gray continuing his incredible performance; Trevor Bauer throws off his current performance issues and returns to what he did in Cleveland; Disco keeps getting better, along with Castillo.
2) The Reds' bullpen finds guys to rely on besides Garrett, Lorenzen, and Iglesias (of course, Lorenzen and Garrett will repeat or improve on 2019 and Iglesias will work out all of his issues to become a dominant closer.
3) The Reds who had "best of career" seasons like Iglesias and Suarez will do it again -- and this assumes Iglesias re-ups with the Reds, which is not probable at this point).
4) The Reds who had poor offensive seasons (Votto & Barnhart) will magically return to their former statistical selves.
5) The young players all continue to improve.
6) Of course, none of the prime performers loses much time to injury.
Precisely why I stated in July that the Reds should be sellers looking to add to their minor league core.

The Reds could have been on the receiving end of deals such as what Arizona and Cleveland got. Castillo could have likely brought even more.
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
I disagree with trying to move Castillo, especially if you feel you are close to winning, but I definitely thought the Reds should have considered selling high on Garrett.
 
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Red14

Member
I agree that I feel good about our rotation for 2020: Castillo, Grey, Bauer, Disco stacks up well against most everyone except LA and Houston.

However, you can't feel great about the offense - we were mostly healthy this year and still only 22nd in runs scored, 22nd in OBP, 21st in OPS. Not a good offensive team at this point. Need more production from LF, C, 2B for sure. 3B and RF are really the only positions I would list as "very productive".
I'd love to have an offense like Houston or the Yankees, but that doesn't necessarily mean wins. St. Louis has 669 runs this season, we have 642, they are 21st in runs scored. There are other ways to win games. Honestly, on paper when you look at our team vs. St. Louis, do you feel that's clearly a better team? I don't. They just find ways to win games that we don't do. Our left field is a mess and has been a mess for years because no one ever performs well enough to win the job. Adam Duvall is probably the closest, but he eventually lost the job because he couldn't hit above .220. My guess is we'll probably have a platoon in left again in 2020 with Winker, Vanmeter and Ervin. I don't mind the platoon as long as the production is there. I'd guess you'll see the same at 2nd base. Our catcher situation, well yes, we could use an upgrade, but at what cost? Barnhart, Casali, Farmer isn't an awful mix. What you hope to see in 2020 is a full season from Suarez, Votto, Aquino, Senzel. Then on the pitching side, if you can run out Castillo, Gray, Bauer, and whomever the other two starters are, and you get 30 starts from the top 3 guys, then you hope you don't have to score 6 runs a game.
 

Red14

Member
Precisely why I stated in July that the Reds should be sellers looking to add to their minor league core.

The Reds could have been on the receiving end of deals such as what Arizona and Cleveland got. Castillo could have likely brought even more.
Why is the world would you trade your #1 starter???
 

eastside_purple

Well-known member
I'd love to have an offense like Houston or the Yankees, but that doesn't necessarily mean wins. St. Louis has 669 runs this season, we have 642, they are 21st in runs scored. There are other ways to win games. Honestly, on paper when you look at our team vs. St. Louis, do you feel that's clearly a better team? I don't. They just find ways to win games that we don't do. Our left field is a mess and has been a mess for years because no one ever performs well enough to win the job. Adam Duvall is probably the closest, but he eventually lost the job because he couldn't hit above .220. My guess is we'll probably have a platoon in left again in 2020 with Winker, Vanmeter and Ervin. I don't mind the platoon as long as the production is there. I'd guess you'll see the same at 2nd base. Our catcher situation, well yes, we could use an upgrade, but at what cost? Barnhart, Casali, Farmer isn't an awful mix. What you hope to see in 2020 is a full season from Suarez, Votto, Aquino, Senzel. Then on the pitching side, if you can run out Castillo, Gray, Bauer, and whomever the other two starters are, and you get 30 starts from the top 3 guys, then you hope you don't have to score 6 runs a game.
It’s going to be really tough to win in GABP relying on pitching without consistently scoring runs.
 

wolves82

Active member
Precisely why I stated in July that the Reds should be sellers looking to add to their minor league core.

The Reds could have been on the receiving end of deals such as what Arizona and Cleveland got. Castillo could have likely brought even more.
The entire reason teams acquire young prospects is so that you can sometimes find a gem like Castillo. He is young, awesome, and under team control for several years. Trading him is absolutely 100% the wrong move. In fact, I would burn my Reds gear and not be a fan if they made that move.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
The entire reason teams acquire young prospects is so that you can sometimes find a gem like Castillo. He is young, awesome, and under team control for several years. Trading him is absolutely 100% the wrong move. In fact, I would burn my Reds gear and not be a fan if they made that move.
You play to win Championships.

Having 1 or 2 great players doesn't win championships. You have to build an entire team.
Yes Castillo is young, controlled and becoming elite. He also could have brought back enough talent to build around an already strong minor league core.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
As for next season, the Reds might have 15-20M to spend. The rotation and the infield will use most of the budget.
Raisel Iglesias will need to turn it around. I think the bull pen will be fine with Garrett, Lorenzen, Stephenson and Iglesias as the core. They will need to get production out of SS and 2B. Catcher is a loss cause IMO.

Let's hope Aquino is for real next season and Winker/Ervin can platoon LF effectively.
Senzel will need to learn to hit a slider in the offseason or his career will flame out quickly.
 
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