Martin RPI

An example of what I mean is take a school like Moeller, where they may be the overwhelming dominate team in the region and rattle off 5 or 6 district titles in a row. While, yes, it is impressive in its own right. If you were to look at what it took to win each of those titles, because of how the region is set up, they may have had to win 1 semi tough game each of those years to win a district title. Meanwhile, the other 3 districts would be lopsided with the rest of the talent in the region, creating a true meat grinder for 3 teams to win those titles. Again, it still would be an impressive streak, when just looked at it on its face, but a little digging shows it's kinda not. And that's all due to how the region has their tournament structured.
I know what you’re saying, but aren’t the other three districts lopsided because they are staying away from Moeller? They’d prefer to play in a meat grinder district over a (likely) earlier loss to Moeller, right?

To me, that is the market talking, and it tells me all I need to know about how good Moeller is considered to be.
 
I know what you’re saying, but aren’t the other three districts lopsided because they are staying away from Moeller? They’d prefer to play in a meat grinder district over a (likely) earlier loss to Moeller, right?

To me, that is the market talking, and it tells me all I need to know about how good Moeller is considered to be.
It's a sports tournament, not the stock market. For me, I couldn't care less what everyone thinks or feels. You get your seed and get placed in the bracket based on it. Regardless of how you feel, you play who you are scheduled to play based on your seed. If SWO at the very least did that, I would have a greater appreciation for it, even if they still kept their essential super regional bracket style and coaches voting for seeds.
 
Glad I could give you a chuckle! Multiple things can be true:

1. I'm not a fan of everyone doing it the same using the Martin RPI, just to do it the same way. I don't think there is a competitive disadvantage anywhere in Ohio bc of the current system.

2. I think the Martin RPI is a great topic to talk about, but flawed as a ranking system bc it doesn't recognize tough schedules unless you win the game.

3. I could get behind a complete revamp that uses a RPI like Pennsylvania's that incorporates strength of schedule even if you lose and allows multiple teams from the same region to meet in the state finals
That is part of the beauty of the OHSAA Tournament, 4 teams from Cincy cannot meet in the Final Four. Small towns all across Ohio have a chance to make it to the Final Four before they could see Cincy, Dayton or Akron team.
 
That is part of the beauty of the OHSAA Tournament, 4 teams from Cincy cannot meet in the Final Four. Small towns all across Ohio have a chance to make it to the Final Four before they could see Cincy, Dayton or Akron team.
I don't disagree, love the small town Hoosier stories, but there is also a part of me that wants to see the best two teams in the state final regardless of where they are from.
 
I don't disagree, love the small town Hoosier stories, but there is also a part of me that wants to see the best two teams in the state final regardless of where they are from.
We rarely see the 2 BEST teams in the state in the finals. It may be the two teams that have played their best games in the last couple weeks. That's the excitement, upsets and underdogs.

Also I did a little more investigating of the Martin RPI formula. It does factor in the opponent schools size, the opponent's winning percentage and the opponent's schedule winning percentage. I would agree the percentages in the formula could be adjusted slightly, but the formula has what you wanted and it treats everyone the same. So if there is a flaw in the treatment of one team, it is in their schedule or the data being entered. I will also add, IMO, the way the SWOH region does their brackets can be an area of improvement. District and regions should be set up to provide a winner from that area.
 
How about the coaches? It’s my understanding that the NWO coaches are not fans of the change.

NWO coaches are definitely in favor of the change, based on one condition. The district set up cannot remain the same. If you have the same districts as last year, the RPI will solve nothing. If you go to the super sectional format, where you have 55 teams in D4 in NWO, you seed them 1-55 and the top 4 teams are all in different districts, that's the way it needs to be done. That's the only way Martin RPI will work. As of now, the NWDAB doesn't want to change to the super sectional format. Coaches are saying they love the idea of using the RPI, but there's no point in using it if the Districts stay the same.
 
Glad I could give you a chuckle! Multiple things can be true:

1. I'm not a fan of everyone doing it the same using the Martin RPI, just to do it the same way. I don't think there is a competitive disadvantage anywhere in Ohio bc of the current system.

2. I think the Martin RPI is a great topic to talk about, but flawed as a ranking system bc it doesn't recognize tough schedules unless you win the game.

3. I could get behind a complete revamp that uses a RPI like Pennsylvania's that incorporates strength of schedule even if you lose and allows multiple teams from the same region to meet in the state finals

You clearly don't understand how the RPI formula works. The entire premise of the ranking is to rank teams based on strength of schedule. It ranks the team's ENTIRE schedule as a WHOLE. Look at the RPI FAQ pages on KY's site. It says the same thing.

From KY site:

"How should teams be scheduling?

  • The main thing to remember with the RPI is it takes an entire schedule into account, and in general, a single game will not result in a significant change in the calculations.
  • Do not fret over scheduling one game, but instead, see the entire schedule as a whole and try to judge if it will be tough or not."



Even if you lose, the Martin RPI takes into account the record of the opponent, AND strength of schedule of the opponent, AND the Division the opponent is in. It's literally 67.5% of the ranking. The Martin RPI is not the same as Joe Eitel's rankings where in Eitel's rankings, you try to amass as many points as possible. In Martin RPI, your ranking is an AVERAGE, not a SUM.

If Taft would have lost to 8 average D4 schools instead of 8 really good D1/2 schools, then their RPI would have been wayyyy lower than the .6772 it ended up with. So in that manner, Martin RPI DOES "incorporate strength of schedule even if you lose," in your words. If you can't understand that, then you just can't comprehend simple mathematics lol.

Lastly, and I know for a fact the OHSAA would tell you the same thing, you still have to have some sort of geographical component to the postseason tournament for high school sports. The St. Iggy's, St. Ed's, Massillons of the world that can afford travel and all the expenses that come with it are in the 1% minority. Ohio HS Sports isn't like college athletics where athletic departments have multi-million dollar budgets to work with.
 
You clearly don't understand how the RPI formula works. The entire premise of the ranking is to rank teams based on strength of schedule. It ranks the team's ENTIRE schedule as a WHOLE. Look at the RPI FAQ pages on KY's site. It says the same thing.

From KY site:

"How should teams be scheduling?

  • The main thing to remember with the RPI is it takes an entire schedule into account, and in general, a single game will not result in a significant change in the calculations.
  • Do not fret over scheduling one game, but instead, see the entire schedule as a whole and try to judge if it will be tough or not."



Even if you lose, the Martin RPI takes into account the record of the opponent, AND strength of schedule of the opponent, AND the Division the opponent is in. It's literally 67.5% of the ranking. The Martin RPI is not the same as Joe Eitel's rankings where in Eitel's rankings, you try to amass as many points as possible. In Martin RPI, your ranking is an AVERAGE, not a SUM.

If Taft would have lost to 8 average D4 schools instead of 8 really good D1/2 schools, then their RPI would have been wayyyy lower than the .6772 it ended up with. So in that manner, Martin RPI DOES "incorporate strength of schedule even if you lose," in your words. If you can't understand that, then you just can't comprehend simple mathematics lol.

Lastly, and I know for a fact the OHSAA would tell you the same thing, you still have to have some sort of geographical component to the postseason tournament for high school sports. The St. Iggy's, St. Ed's, Massillons of the world that can afford travel and all the expenses that come with it are in the 1% minority. Ohio HS Sports isn't like college athletics where athletic departments have multi-million dollar budgets to work with.
Definitely not a mathematician so if I got it wrong I apologize. I read "OAOWP: opponents’ average opponents’ winning percentage. An example for this would be like saying Ohio State gets more points for beating a 15-3 Michigan State team than Dayton would get for beating a 15-3 Davidson team." from the Martin website. Since it says "beating" and not "playing" in there twice in the example, I interpreted that as you must win to get the benefit in this calculation.

Since you seem to be the RPI expert can you explain in simple terms how, if strength of schedule/opponents record is 68% of the ranking, how a team (Lutheran East) can have the toughest D3 schedule in Ohio, go 11-9 against that schedule, and be ranked 45th in Ohio? To contrast that, Cinc Country Day went 18-3 against the 5th worst schedule in D3 and they are 25th. That doesn't seem to match your assertion that 68% of the RPI depends on SoS. If you compare the two Lutheran has a considerably higher AOWP and moderately higher OAOWP (which I believe are the SoS measurements you say account for 68% of the ranking) but considerably lower winning percentage and L1 (which is a bonus for wins over bigger schools). This tells me the ranking system awards scheduling bigger schools that are not very good so you beat them. Please correct any mistakes you see.
 
That is part of the beauty of the OHSAA Tournament, 4 teams from Cincy cannot meet in the Final Four. Small towns all across Ohio have a chance to make it to the Final Four before they could see Cincy, Dayton or Akron team.
That's not beauty to me. I'd like to see the best teams always have the best potential to play at the end
Definitely not a mathematician so if I got it wrong I apologize. I read "OAOWP: opponents’ average opponents’ winning percentage. An example for this would be like saying Ohio State gets more points for beating a 15-3 Michigan State team than Dayton would get for beating a 15-3 Davidson team." from the Martin website. Since it says "beating" and not "playing" in there twice in the example, I interpreted that as you must win to get the benefit in this calculation.

Since you seem to be the RPI expert can you explain in simple terms how, if strength of schedule/opponents record is 68% of the ranking, how a team (Lutheran East) can have the toughest D3 schedule in Ohio, go 11-9 against that schedule, and be ranked 45th in Ohio? To contrast that, Cinc Country Day went 18-3 against the 5th worst schedule in D3 and they are 25th. That doesn't seem to match your assertion that 68% of the RPI depends on SoS. If you compare the two Lutheran has a considerably higher AOWP and moderately higher OAOWP (which I believe are the SoS measurements you say account for 68% of the ranking) but considerably lower winning percentage and L1 (which is a bonus for wins over bigger schools). This tells me the ranking system awards scheduling bigger schools that are not very good so you beat them. Please correct any mistakes you see.
Sounds like all of the metrics are there, but the weight of each metric needs adjusting.
 
Definitely not a mathematician so if I got it wrong I apologize. I read "OAOWP: opponents’ average opponents’ winning percentage. An example for this would be like saying Ohio State gets more points for beating a 15-3 Michigan State team than Dayton would get for beating a 15-3 Davidson team." from the Martin website. Since it says "beating" and not "playing" in there twice in the example, I interpreted that as you must win to get the benefit in this calculation.

Since you seem to be the RPI expert can you explain in simple terms how, if strength of schedule/opponents record is 68% of the ranking, how a team (Lutheran East) can have the toughest D3 schedule in Ohio, go 11-9 against that schedule, and be ranked 45th in Ohio? To contrast that, Cinc Country Day went 18-3 against the 5th worst schedule in D3 and they are 25th. That doesn't seem to match your assertion that 68% of the RPI depends on SoS. If you compare the two Lutheran has a considerably higher AOWP and moderately higher OAOWP (which I believe are the SoS measurements you say account for 68% of the ranking) but considerably lower winning percentage and L1 (which is a bonus for wins over bigger schools). This tells me the ranking system awards scheduling bigger schools that are not very good so you beat them. Please correct any mistakes you see.
Let's compare the Summit Country Day and Lutheran East RPI calculations since you mentioned those two schools. Win % was weighted at 35%, AOWP at 35%, OAOWP at 25%, and L1 at 5%.

L1:
5.5 for each win over a D1 school
5.0 for each win over a D2 school
4.5 for each win over a D3 school
4.0 for each win over a D4 school

Summit Country Day went 15-5 with 5 wins over D2 teams (25 points), 8 wins over D3 teams (36 points), and 2 wins over D4 teams (8 points) for a total of 69 (nice). Divide that by 20 games and you get 3.45 for their L1 number.

Lutheran East went 11-9 with 6 wins over D1 teams (33 points), 4 wins over D2 teams (20 points), and 1 win over a D3 team (4.5 points) for a total of 57.5. Divide that by 20 games and you get 2.875 for their L1 number.

Summit Country Day:
.2625 (win %)
.1659 (AOWP)
.1239 (OAOWP)
.1725 (3.45 L1 number multiplied by .05)
.7248 Total

Lutheran East:
.1925 (win %)
.2165 (AOWP)
.1382 (OAOWP)
.1438 (2.875 L1 number multiplied by .05)
.6910 Total

The L1 calculation actually hurt Lutheran East. Using 35-35-30 as the weighting and excluding the L1 calculation would've helped Lutheran East and hurt Summit CD. Somebody mentioned at the start that the L1 weighting might increase from 5% to 7.5%. That tweak by itself won't fix anything.
 
Summit Country Day:
.2625 (win %)
.1659 (AOWP)
.1239 (OAOWP)
.1725 (3.45 L1 number multiplied by .05)
.7248 Total

Lutheran East:
.1925 (win %)
.2165 (AOWP)
.1382 (OAOWP)
.1438 (2.875 L1 number multiplied by .05)
.6910 Total

The L1 calculation actually hurt Lutheran East. Using 35-35-30 as the weighting and excluding the L1 calculation would've helped Lutheran East and hurt Summit CD. Somebody mentioned at the start that the L1 weighting might increase from 5% to 7.5%. That tweak by itself won't fix anything.
It looks to me that the win% hurt Lutheran East more.

Can someone figure the L1 as a 5% factor if was given for every opponent win or lose. So you could get small credit even for a loss.
 
@D1nwobb - Great analysis. Question: based on what you did it doesn't appear 68% of that ranking is based on strength of schedule, is that correct?

@spirit454 - I agree. Clearly the ranking in D3 did not come very close to what reality was. Any thoughts on other tweaks that could make it closer to reality?
 
@D1nwobb - Great analysis. Question: based on what you did it doesn't appear 68% of that ranking is based on strength of schedule, is that correct?

@spirit454 - I agree. Clearly the ranking in D3 did not come very close to what reality was. Any thoughts on other tweaks that could make it closer to reality?
One tweak may be the need to have a designated District tournament by location instead of a super sectional.
 
Good point - definitely not that many. I was made aware of an email chain, though, that certainly leaned anti-RPI.
I will guess it to be close to 50/50 with the traditional way winning. There are a lot of coaches out there that have been burnt by vindictive voting and would like to see an unbiased system.
 
I will guess it to be close to 50/50 with the traditional way winning. There are a lot of coaches out there that have been burnt by vindictive voting and would like to see an unbiased system.
Can you say where you are connected (assuming NWOH) and what vindictive voting takes place at a pace to burn a lot of different coaches? In SWOH there is sometimes complaints about teams in the same league voting for each other, but I don't remember many times on the boys side there being a clear vindictive vote.
 
Can you say where you are connected (assuming NWOH) and what vindictive voting takes place at a pace to burn a lot of different coaches? In SWOH there is sometimes complaints about teams in the same league voting for each other, but I don't remember many times on the boys side there being a clear vindictive vote.
Some coaches have said that others have in the past voted teams much lower then they should be with the goal of getting their team a higher seed. Others have stated that league connection and loyalty as an issue also.
 
Some coaches have said that others have in the past voted teams much lower then they should be with the goal of getting their team a higher seed. Others have stated that league connection and loyalty as an issue also.
Put everyone in 1 bracket lose go home win keep playing. Draw them blindly out of a hat. If you are good rank/seed means zero. Does it matter if the champ beats you in first or last round? you still lost. Seeds are overrated just go win the game. If you hang district and sectional banners you are wasting money that could go elsewhere. Martin ranking joes ranking Philips ranking and whoever wants to rank is all and good for discussion but seriously just lace them up and play
 
Put everyone in 1 bracket lose go home win keep playing. Draw them blindly out of a hat. If you are good rank/seed means zero. Does it matter if the champ beats you in first or last round? you still lost. Seeds are overrated just go win the game. If you hang district and sectional banners you are wasting money that could go elsewhere. Martin ranking joes ranking Philips ranking and whoever wants to rank is all and good for discussion but seriously just lace them up and play
Interesting take.....You are correct that Martin/AP/social media guys rankings are fun to talk about, but don't matter.

Seeding is important bc it decides order of choice for brackets...which is important so coaches can find a path to allow their team the best chance of winning.....which is important because all coaches want to win (some for the kids to experience it and some for their ego)…..So coaches and players most likely 100% disagree with your take.

Not liking hanging a District banner is just silly, in SWOH D4 there are 3 champions out of 40 teams. That is worth celebrating.
 
Interesting take.....You are correct that Martin/AP/social media guys rankings are fun to talk about, but don't matter.

Seeding is important bc it decides order of choice for brackets...which is important so coaches can find a path to allow their team the best chance of winning.....which is important because all coaches want to win (some for the kids to experience it and some for their ego)…..So coaches and players most likely 100% disagree with your take.

Not liking hanging a District banner is just silly, in SWOH D4 there are 3 champions out of 40 teams. That is worth celebrating.
Your reasoning is flawed in my opinion. The tournament process should not be designed to create an easy path. IT should be designed to find out who is playing the best basketball in March. This is why IMO, the SW needs to revamp their tournament structure to play out their districts and find the district champs from the Cincy area to play the district champs from the Dayton area.
 
Your reasoning is flawed in my opinion. The tournament process should not be designed to create an easy path. IT should be designed to find out who is playing the best basketball in March. This is why IMO, the SW needs to revamp their tournament structure to play out their districts and find the district champs from the Cincy area to play the district champs from the Dayton area.
They do that, but it is the sectional. The sectional winners in the south play the sectional winners in the north. Are you saying create one Cincy team vs one Dayton team for one district champ? If so, since the SW sends 3 or 4 teams to regionals depending on division, how would you get the other teams?

I don't think the tnmt draw creates "easy" paths except for the very top seeds like Taft, it does allow teams to pick a path that gives them the best chance to make a deep run. I keep using Georgetown as my example of this, they played the #4 seed to get to districts then the #1 from Dayton in the district final and #3 in Dayton in Regional semi before losing to #1 Taft in the regional final. They didn't create an easy path by choosing, but they picked one that might get them the furthest and it worked out. #3 Summit CD tried to do the same and lost in sectionals to the #6 seed.
 
They do that, but it is the sectional. The sectional winners in the south play the sectional winners in the north. Are you saying create one Cincy team vs one Dayton team for one district champ? If so, since the SW sends 3 or 4 teams to regionals depending on division, how would you get the other teams?

I don't think the tnmt draw creates "easy" paths except for the very top seeds like Taft, it does allow teams to pick a path that gives them the best chance to make a deep run. I keep using Georgetown as my example of this, they played the #4 seed to get to districts then the #1 from Dayton in the district final and #3 in Dayton in Regional semi before losing to #1 Taft in the regional final. They didn't create an easy path by choosing, but they picked one that might get them the furthest and it worked out. #3 Summit CD tried to do the same and lost in sectionals to the #6 seed.
They have a super sectional. The change have 2 sectional champs playing each other in a District final game of the territory. Sending potentially 2 district champs from the South to play 2 from the North.

Your words not mine. "Seeding is important bc it decides order of choice for brackets...which is important so coaches can find a path to allow their team the best chance of winning" In the big volume of the tournament it would change maybe a game or two at the most. the better teams will still move on and upsets will still happen with banners being hung and schools celebrating success or talking of what could have been. Just like it happens today.
 
They have a super sectional. The change have 2 sectional champs playing each other in a District final game of the territory. Sending potentially 2 district champs from the South to play 2 from the North.

Your words not mine. "Seeding is important bc it decides order of choice for brackets...which is important so coaches can find a path to allow their team the best chance of winning" In the big volume of the tournament it would change maybe a game or two at the most. the better teams will still move on and upsets will still happen with banners being hung and schools celebrating success or talking of what could have been. Just like it happens today.
Gotcha, so you would always have 2 dayton vs 2 cincy in the regional?

Semantics, choosing to play CHCA instead of Taft is "easier" and I have a better chance to win, but it is certainly not "easy".
 
Gotcha, so you would always have 2 dayton vs 2 cincy in the regional?

Semantics, choosing to play CHCA instead of Taft is "easier" and I have a better chance to win, but it is certainly not "easy".
That is how most regional districts are designed. A district champ comes out of a mapped area and plays another district champ from a mapped area in the regional semi.

The reality is, if you have 12 teams in your district the bottom 6 have very little chance of winning a game. The next 3-4 may get an upset or may get upset them selves. The top 2-3 teams will regularly end up winning the district title. Saying that, I know that upsets happen.
 
Interesting take.....You are correct that Martin/AP/social media guys rankings are fun to talk about, but don't matter.

Seeding is important bc it decides order of choice for brackets...which is important so coaches can find a path to allow their team the best chance of winning.....which is important because all coaches want to win (some for the kids to experience it and some for their ego)…..So coaches and players most likely 100% disagree with your take.

Not liking hanging a District banner is just silly, in SWOH D4 there are 3 champions out of 40 teams. That is worth celebrating.
If you are a coach or player and dont want to play the best i feel sorry for you. Easy way is stay home collect a check from mailbox.
 
If you are a coach or player and dont want to play the best i feel sorry for you. Easy way is stay home collect a check from mailbox.
If you have the #2 seed are you immediately jumping in the #1 seed’s bracket to play them in the first round? Coaches choose the path they think gives their team the best chance to advance as far as possible. There aren’t many that go into a draw thinking “well, we may lose the first game, but I’m gonna match up with the best team I can find right out of the chute.”
 
If you have the #2 seed are you immediately jumping in the #1 seed’s bracket to play them in the first round? Coaches choose the path they think gives their team the best chance to advance as far as possible. There aren’t many that go into a draw thinking “well, we may lose the first game, but I’m gonna match up with the best team I can find right out of the chute.”
Why not? Win or go home. As I said earlier lace them up and play. If you draw blindly you are not choosing an easy or hard route the placement is a random draw. It is a HS basketball game. This thread was about using some idiotic ranking system to seed teams. A blind draw may be idiotic too but it is the most unbiased. No coach no computer just draw out of a hat and put on board. Pretty simple maybe for your coaches and players we can have 10 divisions to make their chances better or 1 division 1 draw. Lace them up and play. Over and out…
 
Why not? Win or go home. As I said earlier lace them up and play. If you draw blindly you are not choosing an easy or hard route the placement is a random draw. It is a HS basketball game. This thread was about using some idiotic ranking system to seed teams. A blind draw may be idiotic too but it is the most unbiased. No coach no computer just draw out of a hat and put on board. Pretty simple maybe for your coaches and players we can have 10 divisions to make their chances better or 1 division 1 draw. Lace them up and play. Over and out…
When I was a kid in Indiana, there was one class with 64 sectionals. Same 7 or 8 teams in your sectional every year based on geography. Probably most were in your conference as well. The winners always matched up in the same set of 4 in the regional, then 4 in semi-state, then 4 in state finals. Too bad if you were #2 in the state and played #1 the first week. And Indiana one class basketball tourney was often rightly viewed as one of the best high school sports things going. Also interesting was that the rounds after sectionals were played in one day so it was win twice or go home. That got interesting, especially if you got more starters rest or even if you played first or second game and made it to evening game.

That said, I think the coaches seeding is ok. If you get bumped a touch lower by one coach voting you down and you're actually good then go into their bracket and use it as motivation. By being lower you'll have that option. Seems to be too much desire to tweak a system that really isn't broke but might have scheduling ramifications that wouldn't be good. I get it for football to get in the playoffs, at least before the latest expansion. But for basketball I'd say not.
 
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