All 7 Federal League schools are all but guaranteed a spot in the playoffs now. Here is a brief summary of each school's situation. All calculations are from Drew Pasteur's website.
McKinley- It's pretty simple. The Pups will have a home game in the first round even if they lose to GlenOak and Massillon. However a top 4 seed and double home game just ain't gonna happen unless they upset the Tigers. There is a 79% chance that McKinley will get either the #6 or #7 seed. If the last two games are split, as expected, McKinley will likely welcome either Elyria or John Marshall to Benson in 3 weeks, then travel to Medina or Cleveland Heights in Week 12.
Lake- Good news, the Streaks have a 93% chance to get either the 2 or 3 seed in Region 7. This matters, because Massillon has all but clinched the 1 seed, and any team would prefer to be on the other side of the bracket as the Tigers if given the choice. As long as Lake wins at least 1 of their last 2 games, they won't have to worry about that. Honestly, the only real difference between the 2 and 3 seeds is who gets to wear the dark jerseys in the likely event of a Lake-Westerville South game Week 13.
Hoover- If the Vikings can beat both Green and Jackson, a home game will be their reward. Go 1-1, and the Vikings probably end up around #10 or #11, which should give them a reasonable chance to pull off a Week 11 upset. BUT, the Vikings REALLY don't want to end up 5-5. The thing about Region 7 is that there is a clear top 4 teams (Massillon, Lake, Westerville South, Big Walnut) and then a big drop off to the most likely candidates for the 5-8 seeds ( Watkins Memorial, Dover, Columbus DeSales, Independence, Licking Heights). So making the Top 12 is going to be of great importance for Hoover, Green and Perry. Losing the last two games puts Hoover in danger of falling below the 12 seed.
Jackson- Will get a top 8 seed as long as they win at least one of their two remaining games vs Central and Hoover, and possibly even if they don't. The real question is if the Bears will get the #5 or #6 seed (if 6-4) or the #7 or #8 seed (if 5-5). They will be the favorite in the first round either way. Interestingly, there is a nearly 40% chance the Polar Bears will face Barea-Midpark Week 11. Root for Perry and Boardman, and against Barea and St. Ignatius.
Green- Like Hoover, the Bulldogs don't want to fall below the 12 seed. The 4-4 Bulldogs actually have a slightly better Harbin situation than Hoover (Thank you Jackson and North Olmsted!). Beating the Vikings gives the Bulldogs a 40% chance to break into the top 8 at 5-5. But, let's face it, the Dawgs aren't the favorites in either of their last 2 games. There's a 55% chance they end up 4-6 and a 4-6 record puts the Bulldogs in the 12-16 seed range with Perry, Wooster, Teays Valley and Kilbourne. L2 points likely prove to be the difference. Root hard for Jackson and North Olmsted the next two weeks.
Perry- Let's be optimistic and say the Panthers can upset Lake. Well, then a seed in the #9-11 range is very possible, and even a home game is on the table. Perry seems to be a cut above the other teams in the 5-12 range. But if we assume that won't happen, a lot hinges on the GlenOak game. Lose that, and Perry either misses the playoffs entirely, or ends up having to go to Massillon Week 11. Win and there's a slight chance to break into the top 12, and no chance at missing the playoffs.
GlenOak- There is a bit of a logjam in Region 1 in terms of who ends up with seeds 10-13, which is where the Eagles should end up. Obviously, if you're GO you want to have the most winnable playoff matchup you can, and the way to do that is to beat Perry. Root for Green, and against Elyria, Brunswick and Lorain.
