Dover @ Canfield

DoverTornadoFan

Active member
Thoughts on this game? Dover needs to play a good game, and if a mistake is made not let it go to their heads. Should be a good game. Canfield fans how's your team looking? Got a good win against Chaney but seems like your struggling like Dover is this year.
 
 

330Football

Well-known member
Yes I know it is true, but you will see what I'm talking about when more people see the thread. Lol
since they lost 3 straight he doesn’t care as much says he’s busy with work all of a sudden lol
 

manofthefall

Active member
I really can't say what is going to happen here. Dover needs a win here this week. Canfield, with their remaining schedule will end up with 3 more for sure wins and possibly a 4th. I just hope Dover digs deep this week and pulls this one out.
 

simkon

Well-known member
Yes I know it is true, but you will see what I'm talking about when more people see the thread. Lol
since they lost 3 straight he doesn’t care as much says he’s busy with work all of a sudden lol
I am actually working in a very remote area of Southern Indiana overseeing several projects for bridges and rock slides.
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simkon

Well-known member
Thoughts on this game? Dover needs to play a good game, and if a mistake is made not let it go to their heads. Should be a good game. Canfield fans how's your team looking? Got a good win against Chaney but seems like your struggling like Dover is this year.
Chaney is terrible this year, Chaney reminds me of how a little kid plays Madden/NCAA on Playstation/XBOX. They go for it on 4th and a mile, they back track on runs for big losses, they drop back 15 yards and get sacked, they are completely inept at special teams. They had punts that barely got back to the LOS. Canfield still has several injuries and has limited depth, Canfield is not very good with those players out.

Dover needs this win to have a realistic shot at the playoffs if I am not mistaken. Canfield needs to get to 4 wins to make the playoffs as the #15 or #16 seed. If Canfield wins out they are likely the #8 seed.
 

Doverbuck1

Well-known member
Dover is looking down the barrel of 3 losing seasons in 4 years,the pandemic year gets some slack because of the drastic changes in the schedule and losing Ravine early in the year.
 

Fumblerooski

Well-known member
Dover is looking down the barrel of 3 losing seasons in 4 years,the pandemic year gets some slack because of the drastic changes in the schedule and losing Ravine early in the year.
I really don’t think these teams are any worse than traditional Dover teams. I think they just play a much tougher schedule now as an independent. Oftentimes Dover would go 2-2 in the non league games against 4 good opponents, and then sweep the ECOL. Now all ten games are like those first 4 games of past- which unfortunately leads to 5-5 type seasons. They either need to get in a league, or water down the schedule a bit, but I know neither is that easy to do.
 

simkon

Well-known member
@Fumblerooski What would the advantage be of watering down the schedule and pkaying lesser opponents. The record doesn't matter really, Dover should beat Boardman and New Philly, but to have a decent shot at the playoffs they need to be 5-5 not 4-6. If Dover can't win 5 games they probably wouldn't do much in the playoffs anyways. Heck Canfield likely will be in as the #14-16 seed and get slaughtered by Ursuline or something in their first game.
 

Fumblerooski

Well-known member
@Fumblerooski What would the advantage be of watering down the schedule and pkaying lesser opponents. The record doesn't matter really, Dover should beat Boardman and New Philly, but to have a decent shot at the playoffs they need to be 5-5 not 4-6. If Dover can't win 5 games they probably wouldn't do much in the playoffs anyways. Heck Canfield likely will be in as the #14-16 seed and get slaughtered by Ursuline or something in their first game.
It’s not just about wins and losses. Playing the tougher teams weak after weak wears on their bodies so they’re not at their best for the tougher games. They also only have 50 kids- much lower than the old days of 80-90, so the depth is not really there. It’s pretty crazy that Boardman is the “easy game” left on the schedule.

I’m not saying it should be a drastic change of schedule, but I think 2 of the tough opponents or so could be rescheduled for slightly easier games- there would still be 6-7 tough games on schedule, not 8-9. Those weeks would be crucial heal-up weeks IMO.
 

simkon

Well-known member
@Fumblerooski
Strength of Schedule D-III
1) Dover (2-3 D3 R9)
2) Canfield (2-3 D3 R9)
3) Chardon (3-2 D3 R9)
4) Padua Franciscan (2-3 D3 R10)
5) Louisville (1-4 D3 R9)
6) Ursuline (5-0 D3 R9)
7) Howland (0-5 D3 R9)
8) Central Catholic (5-0 D3 R10)

The common trend here is that everyone with the really difficult schedules has a losing record except for Chardon, Ursuline and TCC. Louisville basically plays a Federal League schedule as a D-III and really strugles every year since they have picked up all the Fed schools.
The other common trend here is that most of the schools on this list are independent and therefore have to take whatever reasonable games they can get and oftentimes teams won't line up to play Canfield, Dover, Chardon, TCC, Ursuline et al.
 

manofthefall

Active member
@Fumblerooski
Strength of Schedule D-III
1) Dover (2-3 D3 R9)
2) Canfield (2-3 D3 R9)
3) Chardon (3-2 D3 R9)
4) Padua Franciscan (2-3 D3 R10)
5) Louisville (1-4 D3 R9)
6) Ursuline (5-0 D3 R9)
7) Howland (0-5 D3 R9)
8) Central Catholic (5-0 D3 R10)

The common trend here is that everyone with the really difficult schedules has a losing record except for Chardon, Ursuline and TCC. Louisville basically plays a Federal League schedule as a D-III and really strugles every year since they have picked up all the Fed schools.
The other common trend here is that most of the schools on this list are independent and therefore have to take whatever reasonable games they can get and oftentimes teams won't line up to play Canfield, Dover, Chardon, TCC, Ursuline et al.
Funny, the only schools there that are having really good seasons so far are both private schools.
 

simkon

Well-known member
Sure feels like a must win for both teams
Canfield only needs 4 wins to make the playoffs, they will be the #16 seed with 4 wins. Dover needs 5 wins if not 6 to make the playoffs, so it is more of a must win for Dover than Canfield. Canfield is aided by their week one win over West Branch, as they likely will go 9-1 or 8-2 (loss to Alliance).
 

Gray wolf

New member
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2023 Dover
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Return of the Jedi

The Crimson Tornadoes will put the region on notice this week, shock and awe style. Mark it down. Canfield won’t be the first, but they will be next. We will be the most battle hardened team in the tournament. The climb back to the top starts this week.​
 

GhostofSD

Active member
If Canfield can snag a win against Dover I’d expect them to win out. Easier said then done though. After the Chaney loss last year Dover was the toughest game the Cards had, including playoffs.
 

TriangleMan

Hates Particle Man

Drew Pasteur

Toughest schedules in Division 3
1) Dover (2-3 D3 R9) 87.2
2) Chardon (3-2 D3 R9) 83.1
3) Padua Franciscan (2-3 D3 R10) 82.5
4) Louisville (1-4 D3 R9) 82.4
5) Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10) 81.8
6) Ursuline (5-0 D3 R9) 81.8
7) Canfield (2-3 D3 R9) 80.0
8) Franklin (1-4 D3 R12) 78.9
9) Howland (0-5 D3 R9) 77.8
10) Toledo Central Catholic (5-0 D3 R10) 75.6
 

simkon

Well-known member

Drew Pasteur

Toughest schedules in Division 3
1) Dover (2-3 D3 R9) 87.2
2) Chardon (3-2 D3 R9) 83.1
3) Padua Franciscan (2-3 D3 R10) 82.5
4) Louisville (1-4 D3 R9) 82.4
5) Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10) 81.8
6) Ursuline (5-0 D3 R9) 81.8
7) Canfield (2-3 D3 R9) 80.0
8) Franklin (1-4 D3 R12) 78.9
9) Howland (0-5 D3 R9) 77.8
10) Toledo Central Catholic (5-0 D3 R10) 75.6
In case you haven't noticed the strength of schedule has changed multiple times since before the start of the season until now. TCC started with the strongest strength of schedule at the beginning of the season but is now 10th. Canfield has bounced back and forth within the top 10 as well. Dover started around 10th and has gone up all the way to 1st apparently.

To me it would make sense to normalize the data to account for all of the large fluxuations and variability.
 

cone

Active member
Hard to see how Dover has the toughest schedule when their opponents records are 25 W 22L. Plus they play 3 D4 schools and a D7.
 

Fumblerooski

Well-known member
Hard to see how Dover has the toughest schedule when their opponents records are 25 W 22L. Plus they play 3 D4 schools and a D7.
I think it’s because the D4 teams are all decent playoff teams, and the worst D2 teams are still better than weak league games for most other D3 teams. Having said that, I don’t know how TCC isn’t number 1.
 

simkon

Well-known member
Cal Preps and Massey also calculate strength of schedule and their calculations seem to be more accurate or logical than Drew's at the moment. Drew's algorithms sometimes get screwed up or have trouble with certain things. All three systems definitely have their issues, some issues are larger or more frequent than others.
 

Crimson and Black

Well-known member
How is the Dover freshman team? They will host Canfield on Thursday evening.
Steubenville freshman had a 38-0 lead before DHS scored 14 in the 4th. I heard
Hard to see how Dover has the toughest schedule when their opponents records are 25 W 22L. Plus they play 3 D4 schools and a D7.
that D7 is not really a D7. They are a WV Military Boarding school who has recruited a very nice team. The basketball team started 5 foreign players from 5 different countries. That said, they beat Steubenville, Mooney and Dover last year. They would be a very good D3 team in Ohio. Not eligible for WV state title because of some of the advantages they have.
 

Doverbuck1

Well-known member
Steubenville freshman had a 38-0 lead before DHS scored 14 in the 4th. I heard

that D7 is not really a D7. They are a WV Military Boarding school who has recruited a very nice team. The basketball team started 5 foreign players from 5 different countries. That said, they beat Steubenville, Mooney and Dover last year. They would be a very good D3 team in Ohio. Not eligible for WV state title because of some of the advantages they have.
Steubenville put the whammy on every team except the reserve game.
 
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