You really can't use those numbers as a true barometer regarding whether Ohio FB is down or not. We all know about Florida and how great they are supposed to be in HS football. They have a ton of individual talent, but not a ton of GREAT teams. (not counting IMG). Ohio feels down to me as well, but not because of the number of 4 star players, but because overall there are not that many stud teams. Just 1 mans opinion.
I only brought up individual talent because cjb said that it seems like individual talent is also down. I didn't know one way or the other off the top of my head to see if the state's talent has been going downhill by the recruiting services, so I looked up the past 5 years and that does not appear to be the case. Going further and looking at how many kids are receiving offers (or committed to D1 schools) also appears to be in line from recent years. I'll readily admit that these numbers are way down from say the mid-2000s when Ohio was usually churning out upwards of 5-6 top 100 prospects and then 25 or so 4-star recruits.
As for teams. From seeing your posts over the years, you obviously have seen a ton of football, especially NE Ohio football, so I won't say you are wrong. But I'll counter by saying that all the usual big Catholic D1 powers all are in the mix (Elder, maybe not, though they did beat Moeller). Unless all those schools are consistently turning over and having their best teams (or one of their best teams ever) on a yearly basis, it's about what you expect from them. All are still very good, and outside of Ed's, I doubt any one of them has had their best ever team within the past 10 years.
This year also may seem down because a couple of public programs that have built big brand-name recognition seem to be significantly down - Mentor and Colerain - to maybe a little down in Pickerington Central's case. On the other hand, a couple of lesser brand names look like they are filling those spots. Medina (for Mentor) in NEO); Marysville (for PC ... maybe there because PC doesn't seem too far down in Central Ohio); Lakota West (for Colerain). I have not seen Marysville or Lakota West to say for sure if they are filling the normal PC or Colerain gap, but I've seen Medina enough to say that this year, they are on the level of some of Mentor's better teams of the past 20 years. That's not prisoner of the moment either, I've been saying for 4-5 years that this group of kids they have now has had the chance to do something special in 2021. And I'm not even saying they will roll everybody to a state title, because they should face solid competition potentially all the way from the R1 quarterfinals to as far as they do advance.
Plus, the OhioRiver poster seems to rub people the wrong way, but it also seems like Springfield may have its best team they ever had, and one that has been close the past couple of years. On top of that are the growing Columbus area D1s that for the most part are collectively ahead of where they were 20 years ago.
I guess that's a very long-winded way of saying that I don't believe that Ohio football, this year, has suddenly dropped off. Compared to 20 years ago, yes. Compared to the past 5-10?? Not seeing much of a difference.
On last thing I will say, too, is that I've seen a lot more games this year outside of just GCC/Eds/Iggy/state tournament, etc. The one thing that has stuck out to me is how much improved some teams were compared to last time I saw them (10 years ago). Valley Forge is night and day different from last time I saw them play (when they were abysmal). Got a RB committed to Purdue and another very good running back and executing a Wing-T offense that could be a challenge for teams in R6 (not a favorite there, but I doubt they get embarrassed). Lakewood as well. Last time I saw them, again they were abysmal. Now at least they have this big 6-6, 265 animal running down plays all over the field along with a solid and athletic QB and a very fast and quick RB. Elyria Catholic has a big 6-6, 215 pound WR who looks like a future NFL TE (he's committed to YSU, but IMO looks way above that level). Haven't seen Rocky River, but they have a D1 kid (believe committed to Wake Forest). That is just the GLC, which had been kind of the butt of jokes in being cast offs.
