DIV-V Region 17

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NE8Forcaster

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To all you mathematicians (IF) Kirkland and South Range win out would the win over Hubbard push the Raiders past the Hornets in the playoff rankings?

after week 7 what are the early predictions for Region 17 top 16 teams 1-16?
 
 
ITCLforecaster said:
To all you mathematicians (IF) Kirkland and South Range win out would the win over Hubbard push the Raiders past the Hornets in the playoff rankings?

after week 7 what are the early predictions for Region 17 top 16 teams 1-16?
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Not doing the math, but seeing as Kirtland already has a sizeable lead in points & play 9 teams above D5 and SR has 7 D4 & above I’m not sure they could catch them.

Regardless, by the time they would play each other it would be at a neutral field & would be a awesome game (and boost sale of ice bags in the area)
 
Raylan_Givens said:
Not doing the math, but seeing as Kirtland already has a sizeable lead in points & play 9 teams above D5 and SR has 7 D4 & above I’m not sure they could catch them.

Regardless, by the time they would play each other it would be at a neutral field & would be a awesome game (and boost sale of ice bags in the area)
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Undefeated D3 school could be huge for SR. Regardless they’ll play at a neutral field
 
After witnessing the Sandy Valley game in 2019, I have learned to not underestimate anyone. With that being said, however, I view the four favorites in the region as the top 4 in Harbin points; Kirtland, South Range, Garaway, & Garfield.

Kirtland has still looked like Kirtland even after switching to the big-school division of their conference, South Range returns an otherworldly number of starters & is rolling on all cylinders, Garaway’s defense has looked potent heading into a Week 10 showdown with Ridgewood, and Garfield has a high-powered run-it-down-your-throat offense & stout defense that will surely give teams fits in the playoffs.
 
Didn’t mean to imply that Kirrtland and South Range were already in the Regional finals just curious about the math. If top 4 teams all win out with regular season games I think the only team that could pass Kirtland is South Range. As far as the winner I’m a firm believer any given day. It’ll be interesting! There are favorites but there not any guarantees
 
Also because I don’t know is there an advantage to teams not playing a 10 game schedule.
if I read right only have to play 5 to get in?
 
ITCLforecaster said:
To all you mathematicians (IF) Kirkland and South Range win out would the win over Hubbard push the Raiders past the Hornets in the playoff rankings?

after week 7 what are the early predictions for Region 17 top 16 teams 1-16?
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Having done the math, the answer to your 1st question is probably not.

If I have projected all of their opponents' remaining games properly, and their divisors stay where Eitel currently has them, 9-0 Kirtland finishes at 30.7778. 10-0 South Range finishes at 28.5235. I haven't done the math on the other 2 unbeatens, but I don't see either Garaway or Garfield catching Kirtland and South Range if all 4 finish unbeaten. Garaway and Garfield's schedules are loaded with games against smaller division teams who play a bunch of smaller division teams. Even if they keep winning, the 2 Gs won't be able to keep pace let alone make up ground on Kirtland and South Range. Had the CVC not expanded and realigned to put Kirtland in the division with the bigger schools in the league, South Range likely is the #1 seed.
 
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ITCLforecaster said:
Also because I don’t know is there an advantage to teams not playing a 10 game schedule.
if I read right only have to play 5 to get in?
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Depends on who your 10th game would've been against and whether you win it.

For example, let's say my team has played 9 games and that those 9 teams will all play 10 games. Those 9 games have netted my team 40 1st level points and 200 2nd level points.
- If I don't play a 10th game, my final average is 26.6667. Lower divisors increase the value of the points your team has earned.
- If that 10th game is a loss, my final average becomes 24.0000.
- If that 10th game is a win, and that team brings me 4.5 1st level points (a DV team) and 10 2nd level points (ex. the team had 2 wins against a DIII and a DV team), then my final average is 25.4500.
- If that 10th game is a win, and that team brings me 4.5 1st level points (a DV team) and 29 2nd level points (ex. 4 wins against DIV teams, 1 win against a DIII team, and 1 win against a DVII team), then my final average is 27.3500.


Yes, a minimum of only 5 games is needed to be eligible for the playoffs this year. Pre-COVID, 8 games were required to be eligible for the playoffs.
 
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It's also worth mentioning that if Kirtland, Garfield, and Garaway would all go unbeaten (i.e. 9-0 for Kirtland and Garfield, 10-0 for Garaway), then South Range would likely finish 4th if they lose to Hubbard. Garaway has a huge game with Ridgewood in week 10. Both teams may come into that game at 9-0. If South Range and Garaway both lose in week 10 to finish 9-1, then South Range would likely stay ahead of Garaway.

I say likely here because so much of this is predicated on 2nd level point games that are out of these teams' control.
 
Mr. Slippery said:
It's also worth mentioning that if Kirtland, Garfield, and Garaway would all go unbeaten (i.e. 9-0 for Kirtland and Garfield, 10-0 for Garaway), then South Range would likely finish 4th if they lose to Hubbard. Garaway has a huge game with Ridgewood in week 10. Both teams may come into that game at 9-0. If South Range and Garaway both lose in week 10 to finish 9-1, then South Range would likely stay ahead of Garaway.

I say likely here because so much of this is predicated on 2nd level point games that are out of these teams' control.
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Looks like Garfield will only play 9 unless they find a game for tomorrow.
 
Mr. Slippery said:
Yes. I took that into account with my most recent post. The net affect there is about a .5 decrease to Garfield's final average, assuming Crestview would've finished 5-5.
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You are on top of it! I can guess the answer but any chance Bellaire or Manchester can catch them?
 
Lost Octopus said:
You are on top of it! I can guess the answer but any chance Bellaire or Manchester can catch them?
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If a level 2 game or two goes the opposite of what I've projected, then yes, 9-0 Garfield could be caught. Manchester would be the bigger threat to catch them. However, my projections on Manchester already include Mogadore winning out. Also, Manchester would be running the table in their league which means their points window is pretty narrow. They would need Loudonville to win games to increase the value of points in those league games since Loudonville is the smallest school in the league. We can revisit this if Manchester beats Fairless this weekend since that is the biggest piece of this particular puzzle.
 
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Lost Octopus said:
You are on top of it! I can guess the answer but any chance Bellaire or Manchester can catch them?
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Mr Slippery CRUSHED the response to this.

My only add specific to Manchester is that, aside from those losses in week 1 & 2, is the PAC is so bad this year that their ceiling is pretty capped. Orrville, Tuslaw & Loudonville did them no favors at all.

When the PAC is strong, it's a great league for playoff points/seeding. Look back to 2018 when Manchester & Orrville were top 2 seeds in this region & 3 other league teams made the playoffs. Just not this year.
 
Mr. Slippery said:
Having done the math, the answer to your 1st question is probably not.

If I have projected all of their opponents' remaining games properly, and their divisors stay where Eitel currently has them, 9-0 Kirtland finishes at 30.7778. 10-0 South Range finishes at 28.5235. I haven't done the math on the other 2 unbeatens, but I don't see either Garaway or Garfield catching Kirtland and South Range if all 4 finish unbeaten. Garaway and Garfield's schedules are loaded with games against smaller division teams who play a bunch of smaller division teams. Even if they keep winning, the 2 Gs won't be able to keep pace let alone make up ground on Kirtland and South Range. Had the CVC not expanded and realigned to put Kirtland in the division with the bigger schools in the league, South Range likely is the #1 seed.
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How do you say that about Garaway, yes they play Div 6 T.V but then they play Div 5 Sandy Valley then Div 5 Ridgewood
 
pirateflash07 said:
How do you say that about Garaway, yes they play Div 6 T.V but then they play Div 5 Sandy Valley then Div 5 Ridgewood
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I think smaller teams relative to Kirtland and South Range
For example, Kirtland has 1 D2 team, 3 D3 teams, and no team below D4.
South Range has a D2 team, 2 D3 teams, and 4 D4 teams. That's more than 2/3 of their schedule playing up.
Garaway only has 3 D4 teams and nothing higher.
 
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