Dancing on someone’s grave…pathetic

 
Hammerdrill said:
No one said it had nothing to do with it. But the polling data leading up to the election didn't predict a Biden win. Pure speculation on your part without supporting data. Biden is certainly less offensive than Hillary, she was completely unlikable btw.
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Behind Biden's 2020 Victory | Pew Research Centerhttps://www.pewresearch.org › ... › Voter Demographics
"Overall, one-in-four 2020 voters (25%) had not voted in 2016. About a quarter of these (6% of all 2020 voters) showed up two years later – in 2018 – to cast ballots in the highest-turnout midterm election in decades. Those who voted in 2018 but not in 2016 backed Biden over Trump in the 2020 election by about two-to-one (62% to 36%).

Both Trump and Biden were able to bring new voters into the political process in 2020. The 19% of 2020 voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2018 split roughly evenly between the two candidates (49% Biden vs. 47% Trump). However, as with voters overall, there was a substantial age divide within this group. Among those under age 30 who voted in 2020 but not in either of the two previous elections, Biden led 59% to 33%, while Trump won among new or irregular voters ages 30 and older by 55% to 42%. Younger voters also made up an outsize share of these voters: Those under age 30 made up 38% of new or irregular 2020 voters, though they represented just 15% of all 2020 voters.

One somewhat unusual aspect of the 2016 election was the relatively high share of voters (nearly 6%) who voted for one of the third-party candidates (mostly the Libertarian and Green Party nominees), a fact many observers attributed to the relative unpopularity of both major party candidates. By comparison, just 2% of voters chose a third-party candidate in 2020. Overall, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53%-36% for Biden over Trump, with 10% opting for a third-party candidate. Among the 5% of Republicans who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, a majority (70%) supported Trump in 2020, but 18% backed Biden. Among the 5% of Democrats who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, just 8% supported Trump in 2020 while 85% voted for Biden."
 
Hammerdrill said:
LOL, he actually gained with every demographic except white men. I guess you missed that part of our discussion.
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That is so exciting. Did he win the election? The popular vote? The electoral vote? I guess if that is what you want to hang your hat on?:banana:
 
bob99 said:
Behind Biden's 2020 Victory | Pew Research Centerhttps://www.pewresearch.org › ... › Voter Demographics
"Overall, one-in-four 2020 voters (25%) had not voted in 2016. About a quarter of these (6% of all 2020 voters) showed up two years later – in 2018 – to cast ballots in the highest-turnout midterm election in decades. Those who voted in 2018 but not in 2016 backed Biden over Trump in the 2020 election by about two-to-one (62% to 36%).

Both Trump and Biden were able to bring new voters into the political process in 2020. The 19% of 2020 voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2018 split roughly evenly between the two candidates (49% Biden vs. 47% Trump). However, as with voters overall, there was a substantial age divide within this group. Among those under age 30 who voted in 2020 but not in either of the two previous elections, Biden led 59% to 33%, while Trump won among new or irregular voters ages 30 and older by 55% to 42%. Younger voters also made up an outsize share of these voters: Those under age 30 made up 38% of new or irregular 2020 voters, though they represented just 15% of all 2020 voters.

One somewhat unusual aspect of the 2016 election was the relatively high share of voters (nearly 6%) who voted for one of the third-party candidates (mostly the Libertarian and Green Party nominees), a fact many observers attributed to the relative unpopularity of both major party candidates. By comparison, just 2% of voters chose a third-party candidate in 2020. Overall, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53%-36% for Biden over Trump, with 10% opting for a third-party candidate. Among the 5% of Republicans who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, a majority (70%) supported Trump in 2020, but 18% backed Biden. Among the 5% of Democrats who voted third-party in 2016 and voted in 2020, just 8% supported Trump in 2020 while 85% voted for Biden.
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I'm still not seeing that people came out and voted against Trump.
 
Hammerdrill said:
You are doing well to completely miss the point.
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What is the point? Trump lost. I have said before that the independent vote decided the election. Trump lost that demographic.
Independents Exercise Increasing Control Over Democratic ...https://www.usnews.com › News › The Report
"Women didn't change their minds very much. Nor did men, for that matter. Age, race and marital status didn't have much of an impact either, when it came to the voter group shifts that got Donald Trump elected in an upset in 2016 and then handily defeated by Joe Biden in 2020.
Independent voters, however, made a dramatic and history-changing change: After voting for Trump by a 4-percentage-point margin in 2016, they favored Biden at the ballot box last year by a 13-point margin, with 54% of self-identified independents voting for the Democrat and 41%, for the defeated incumbent."
"I'm still not seeing that people came out and voted against Trump."
See it now?
 
bob99 said:
What is the point? Trump lost. I have said before that the independent vote decided the election. Trump lost that demographic.
Independents Exercise Increasing Control Over Democratic ...https://www.usnews.com › News › The Report
"Women didn't change their minds very much. Nor did men, for that matter. Age, race and marital status didn't have much of an impact either, when it came to the voter group shifts that got Donald Trump elected in an upset in 2016 and then handily defeated by Joe Biden in 2020.
Independent voters, however, made a dramatic and history-changing change: After voting for Trump by a 4-percentage-point margin in 2016, they favored Biden at the ballot box last year by a 13-point margin, with 54% of self-identified independents voting for the Democrat and 41%, for the defeated incumbent."
"I'm still not seeing that people came out and voted against Trump."
See it now?
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The point has nothing to do with Trump losing. Seems werid that you don't understand that. You said that people came out and voted agaisnt Trump. Meaning that the overwhelming motivation was to make sure he didn't win. The Democrats own data shows that Trump got more votes in every demographic except white men. What you need to show is what motivated the people to vote for Biden.
 
bigkat said:
is it because of his tweets? so why do you hate the man so much? you don't think none of his policies were working?



so are you a fan of Biden, if so, what has he done to impress you?
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Not a fan of Biden regarding his policies per se’ but in regards to actually being a decent human he is light years ahead of Trump. In other words, Biden would never cheat on his wife with a porn star and pay $300,000 to keep her quiet.
 
Hammerdrill said:
The point has nothing to do with Trump losing. Seems werid that you don't understand that. You said that people came out and voted agaisnt Trump. Meaning that the overwhelming motivation was to make sure he didn't win. The Democrats own data shows that Trump got more votes in every demographic except white men. What you need to show is what motivated the people to vote for Biden.
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What I have been saying is that a large number who cast their vote for Biden were voting against Trump. I don't believe Biden was that popular. Trump was that unpopular. The lesser of two bad choices. I think Biden lack of leadership and bad decisions will lead to a large Right win at the midterms. If Biden is unable to right the ship by 2024 a Republican victory for President will happen no matter who the Right put up for a candidate.
 
bob99 said:
What also have to be said is Trump lost the popular vote in back to back elections and it wasn't even close. I don't think Trump lost the popular vote due to a great love of Clinton or Biden. He lost it because the majority of voters were opposed to Trump himself. I have no doubt that Trump has the largest support from his base than any other politician at this time. Will he be able to get the support of any of those that have opposed him in the past? One thing for sure, the man was able to get out the vote.
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This is the argument that is essentially the same one that says football Team A lost to Team B , but Team A had more total yards even though Team B had more points, therefore Team B didn't really win. Of course the problem is that the rules are that points determine the winner, not total yards.

Similarly, the reason that doesn't work in elections is the rules of the game are oriented around electoral votes, not popular votes. If you do change the system to the popular vote system, then the campaigns would be drastically different - particularly Dem candidates would mine for votes in Red State's and Pub candidates would be seen heavily in NY and CA.

In addition, the conservative voters in NY and CA know their votes won't matter in the electoral college system, and libs in solid red states know that their votes won't alter who gets their state's electoral votes, so the motivation to vote is suppressed. But if the game is popular vote, the motivations and actions of the campaigns are entirely different.

In short, not a sound argument - but a very common one.
 
IVCguy said:
This is the argument that is essentially the same one that says football Team A lost to Team B , but Team A had more total yards even though Team B had more points, therefore Team B didn't really win. Of course the problem is that the rules are that points determine the winner, not total yards.

Similarly, the reason that doesn't work in elections is the rules of the game are oriented around electoral votes, not popular votes. If you do change the system to the popular vote system, then the campaigns would be drastically different - particularly Dem candidates would mine for votes in Red State's and Pub candidates would be seen heavily in NY and CA.

In addition, the conservative voters in NY and CA know their votes won't matter in the electoral college system, and libs in solid red states know that their votes won't alter who gets their state's electoral votes, so the motivation to vote is suppressed. But if the game is popular vote, the motivations and actions of the campaigns are entirely different.

In short, not a sound argument - but a very common one.
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What makes it relevant is Trump lost the popular vote in back to back elections. One where he was the incumbent. That has never happened before. The vote was enough to flip the vote in some key states to guarantee the electoral victory. With both candidates receiving the two highest vote totals ever I don't see any suppression of votes. An election like no other. Nothing common about it.
 
bob99 said:
What makes it relevant is Trump lost the popular vote in back to back elections. One where he was the incumbent. That has never happened before. The vote was enough to flip the vote in some key states to guarantee the electoral victory. With both candidates receiving the two highest vote totals ever I don't see any suppression of votes. An election like no other. Nothing common about it.
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No. I would.argue that what is most relevant is you are making a argument from a set if rules that is imaginary, speculative, and not applicable.

However, if you want to change the point to the fact that under the rules of the game that do apply, Trump won once, but couldn't follow it up due to his ability to make large numbers of voters despise him, I'm totally in on that. It's a point I have repeatedly made.

But the popular vote thing is misleading for the reasons stated. GWB lost the popular vote over Mr Stiff, but he was still president. The left howled about the popular vote, but that is simply an argument based on "but we had more yards!"
 
IVCguy said:
No. I would.argue that what is most relevant is you are making a argument from a set if rules that is imaginary, speculative, and not applicable.

However, if you want to change the point to the fact that under the rules of the game that do apply, Trump won once, but couldn't follow it up due to his ability to make large numbers of voters despise him, I'm totally in on that. It's a point I have repeatedly made.

But the popular vote thing is misleading for the reasons stated. GWB lost the popular vote over Mr Stiff, but he was still president. The left howled about the popular vote, but that is simply an argument based on "but we had more yards!"
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The argument is about the totality of the 2020 election. Trump lost the popular and electoral votes. My contention has always been Trump lost due to a vote against him not a vote for Biden. There are those who post that Trump received the second highest popular vote in history. What does that mean when his opponent received even more popular votes? It all comes down to Trump being a polarizing figure. It seems like you either hate him or you love him. In 2020 the majority hated him.
 
IVCguy said:
No. I would.argue that what is most relevant is you are making a argument from a set if rules that is imaginary, speculative, and not applicable.

However, if you want to change the point to the fact that under the rules of the game that do apply, Trump won once, but couldn't follow it up due to his ability to make large numbers of voters despise him, I'm totally in on that. It's a point I have repeatedly made.

But the popular vote thing is misleading for the reasons stated. GWB lost the popular vote over Mr Stiff, but he was still president. The left howled about the popular vote, but that is simply an argument based on "but we had more yards!"
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This is exactly why Trump will never win again. People purposely went out of their way to ensure that Trump would not win. This number of people who despise Trump has only gotten bigger since he keeps whacking off to his “rigged election”, “stolen election” nonsense. Add Jan. 6 to the equation and record numbers will come out again to ensure Trump never occupies the Oval Office ever again. You people that are delusional and think Trump can somehow win in 2024 are brain dead.
 
Mean Machine said:
This is exactly why Trump will never win again. People purposely went out of their way to ensure that Trump would not win. This number of people who despise Trump has only gotten bigger since he keeps whacking off to his “rigged election”, “stolen election” nonsense. Add Jan. 6 to the equation and record numbers will come out again to ensure Trump never occupies the Oval Office ever again. You people that are delusional and think Trump can somehow win in 2024 are brain dead.
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Right now with Biden's approval rating tanking and the unpopularity of MIA Harris, I don't see much chance of the left winning in 2024. The left would have to do a complete turnaround. So far they just keep digging themselves a deeper hole.
 
bob99 said:
Right now with Biden's approval rating tanking and the unpopularity of MIA Harris, I don't see much chance of the left winning in 2024. The left would have to do a complete turnaround. So far they just keep digging themselves a deeper hole.
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Put in a half intelligent candidate and Trump loses. Guaranteed.
 
bob99 said:
The argument is about the totality of the 2020 election. Trump lost the popular and electoral votes. My contention has always been Trump lost due to a vote against him not a vote for Biden. There are those who post that Trump received the second highest popular vote in history. What does that mean when his opponent received even more popular votes? It all comes down to Trump being a polarizing figure. It seems like you either hate him or you love him. In 2020 the majority hated him.
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Yeah, I don't think I would disagree with that to any substantive degree.
 
Mean Machine said:
This is exactly why Trump will never win again. People purposely went out of their way to ensure that Trump would not win. This number of people who despise Trump has only gotten bigger since he keeps whacking off to his “rigged election”, “stolen election” nonsense. Add Jan. 6 to the equation and record numbers will come out again to ensure Trump never occupies the Oval Office ever again. You people that are delusional and think Trump can somehow win in 2024 are brain dead.
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The potential flaw in your reasoning is that people now have reference points. 4 years of Trump and 9 months of the Demented One. You are assuming that people have remained static in their opinions. I suspect that many of the people who voted, as Bob alleges, against Trump/for Biden, may have realized that their life pre-covid under Trump was a ton better than what they are experiencing now.

That is not an argument for Trump 2024, but it is definitely one against Biden, or anyone that looks like or is associated with Biden, in 2024.
 
Hammerdrill said:
That is a nice opinion piece, but I would think you could produce polling data that supports your theory. And keep in mind, I'm not saying you are wrong, just saying I have never seen any data to support it. They do all sorts of polls, one would think there would be numbers out there.
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There is no argument that Trump gained voters in most demographics. He lost big time with the Independent vote. Is being an Independent a separate demographic? I gave you numbers on the Independent vote. The Independent and the suburban women was enough to spell defeat for Trump.
 
IVCguy said:
The potential flaw in your reasoning is that people now have reference points. 4 years of Trump and 9 months of the Demented One. You are assuming that people have remained static in their opinions. I suspect that many of the people who voted, as Bob alleges, against Trump/for Biden, may have realized that their life pre-covid under Trump was a ton better than what they are experiencing now.

That is not an argument for Trump 2024, but it is definitely one against Biden, or anyone that looks like or is associated with Biden, in 2024.
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Biden won’t run in 2024. Too old.
 
bob99 said:
Setting a high bar for DC
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There will be no Christmas display at the Capitol this year. No wise men can found and searches for a virgin have proven fruitless. On the other hand, there are plenty of asses to fill the stable.
 
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