2024 Last Man Standing Contest (New Rules!)

Finals games schedule:
Division II – Thursday, Dec. 5, 7:00 PM – Cincinnati Anderson (15-1) vs. Avon (16-0)
Division VII – Friday, Dec. 6, 10:30 AM – Jeromesville Hillsdale (14-2) vs. Maria Stein Marion Local (16-0)
Division III – Friday, Dec. 6, 3:00 PM – Columbus Bishop Watterson (16-0) vs. Toledo Central Catholic (14-2)
Division I – Friday, Dec. 6, 7:30 PM – Powell Olentangy Liberty (14-2) vs. Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (14-2)
Division VI – Saturday, Dec. 7, 10:30 AM – Coldwater (15-1) vs. Kirtland (15-1)
Division V – Saturday, Dec. 7, 3:00 PM – Liberty Center (15-1) vs. Ironton (15-1)
Division IV – Saturday, Dec. 7, 7:30 PM - Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (16-0) vs. Sandusky Perkins (14-2)

Since the ML game scenarios are outlined above, and all remaining possible winners have TCC winning the afternoon game, I will wait until after the D1 title game Friday night to update.
 
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The Marion Local tragic slaughter eliminated @10404life, and made @a_td solely dependent on a Kirtland victory.
The Watterson victory over TCC neither helped nor harmed any of the non-eliminated entries, as everybody remaining has TCC winning.
The Olentangy Liberty defeat of Moeller clumped @a_td in with @Foster, hence eliminated by the trio. It also add @Gamecock to the precarious eagles group.

Updated scenarios after Friday's titles:

(5) the number of state title winners mother of all tiebreakers is now down to 15 not mathematically eliminated entries:
(5d) if Perkins beats Indian Valley, then: @GoldenLions17 is eliminated by @dukie, and the not so braves, the precarious eagles, are each eliminated by the trio;
(fg) if Liberty Center beats Ironton, then: @ceebass13 and @Mean_Green and the precarious eagles are each eliminated by the trio;
(5i) if Liberty Center wins, then @dukie is eliminated by the trio;
(6) the Parlay of Doom has been avoided already with Avon's win over Anderson, eliminating 8 entries with that one game. Will worry about whether we need to add up wins or not as the finals games progress.

@GoldenLions17 can at best hope to go to the wins tiebreaker with @dukie and all the Avon winners following a needed Coldwater win for them.
@ceebass13 can at best hope to go to the wins tiebreaker with @Mean_Green and all the Avon winners following a needed Ironton win.

the trio has clinched at least a share of the state titles tiebreaker.
---

Brute forced scenarios:
With 3 games and only 8 outcomes remaining available, we can brute force outcomes. Abbreviating winning teams as CW=Coldwater, KL=Kirtland, LC= Liberty Center, IR=Ironton, IV=Indian Valley, SP=Sandusky Perkins below.
the trio = @doubtme, @43460, @Bolts_Fan who have the same 3 teams and hence would have a deathmatch as their tiebreaker, though @doubtme had the earliest entry of the 3. All listed tiebreakers include ALL games (OHSAA recognized or not) including playoff games

(1) CW+LC+IV: 6-way total wins tiebreaker amongst those with 3 state titles (ML, LC, Avon)
@WJ-OSU-STEELERS, @Kirtland4580, @danville96, the trio,

(2) CW+IR+IV: Worst case scenario, 14-way tie amongst entries with 2 state titles
@WJ-OSU-STEELERS, @Kirtland4580, @danville96, the trio, @TigerBeast78, @WGH94, @Gamecock, @Bluestreak1980, @iveseenitall, @ceebass13, @dukie, @GoldenLions17,

(3) CW+LC+SP: 3-way Death Match amongst the trio with 4 state titles
the trio,

(4) CW+IR+SP: 5-way amongst those with 3 state titles
the trio, @dukie, @Mean_Green,

(5) KL+LC+IV: 6-way amongst those with 4 state titles
@WJ-OSU-STEELERS, @Kirtland4580, @danville96, the trio,
(6) KL+IR+IV: 13-way amongst those with 3 state titles
@WJ-OSU-STEELERS, @Kirtland4580, @danville96, the trio, @TigerBeast78, @WGH94, @Gamecock, @Bluestreak1980, @iveseenitall, @ceebass13, @Mean_Green,

(7) KL+LC+SP: 3-way Death Match amongst the trio with 5 state titles
the trio,

(8) KL+IR+SP: 4-way amongst those with 4 state titles
the trio, @Mean_Green,

Remaining teams:
LMS_Week16_AfterFriday.png


Will compute wins tiebreakers amongst those listed above as needed.
 
After the Coldwater victory over Kirtland, I have updated the short list.

Updated scenarios after Coldwater win:

(5) the number of state title winners mother of all tiebreakers is now down to 15 not mathematically eliminated entries:
(5d) if Perkins beats Indian Valley, then: @GoldenLions17 is eliminated by @dukie, and the not so braves, the precarious eagles, are each eliminated by the trio;
(fg) if Liberty Center beats Ironton, then: @ceebass13 and @Mean_Green and the precarious eagles are each eliminated by the trio;
(5i) if Liberty Center wins, then @dukie is eliminated by the trio;
(6) the Parlay of Doom has been avoided already with Avon's win over Anderson, eliminating 8 entries with that one game. Will worry about whether we need to add up wins or not as the finals games progress.

@GoldenLions17 can at best hope to go to the wins tiebreaker with @dukie and all the Avon winners following a needed Coldwater win for them.
@ceebass13 can at best hope to go to the wins tiebreaker with @Mean_Green and all the Avon winners following a needed Ironton win.

the trio has clinched at least a share of the state titles tiebreaker.
---

Brute forced scenarios:
With 3 games and only 8 outcomes remaining available, we can brute force outcomes. Abbreviating winning teams as LC= Liberty Center, IR=Ironton, IV=Indian Valley, SP=Sandusky Perkins below.
the trio = @doubtme, @43460, @Bolts_Fan who have the same 3 teams and hence would have a deathmatch as their tiebreaker, though @doubtme had the earliest entry of the 3. All listed tiebreakers include ALL games (OHSAA recognized or not) including playoff games

(1) LC+IV: 6-way total wins tiebreaker amongst those with 3 state titles (ML, LC, Avon)
@WJ-OSU-STEELERS, @Kirtland4580, @danville96, the trio,

(2) IR+IV: Worst case scenario, 15-way tie amongst entries with 2 state titles
@WJ-OSU-STEELERS, @Kirtland4580, @danville96, the trio, @TigerBeast78, @WGH94, @Gamecock, @Bluestreak1980, @iveseenitall, @ceebass13, @dukie, @GoldenLions17, @Mean_Green,

(3) LC+SP: 3-way Death Match amongst the trio with 4 state titles
the trio,

(4) IR+SP: 5-way amongst those with 3 state titles
the trio, @dukie, @Mean_Green,

Remaining teams:


LMS_Week16_AfterD6.png


Will compute wins tiebreakers amongst those listed above as needed. Please some school that starts with an I, please lose. A 15-way tiebreaker would not be fun!
 
Reminder of the Rules
Sykotyk said:
We're going to do this one a bit different this year. Gone is the weekly competitions. Instead, you're going to pick SEVEN teams to go undefeated. Obviously, you're going to want to span out across divisions but you can pick all D1 or all D7 or all in between. Doesn't matter.

The concept is simple. Pick 7 teams. Rank them in order from #1 through #7. You will be judged by HOW FAR into the season (by OHSAA WEEK) that the team goes before suffering a loss. For this new contest, the loss can happen to any team, including out of state teams. When your #1 team loses, you then jump to your #2 team. And #3 team. #4, etc. Hopefully ONE of your 7 goes undefeated.

If only one survives all 16 weeks, they're the Last Man Standing. If there's MORE THAN ONE participant alive going into Week 16, the tie-breaker will be WHICH RANK your team is in your 7 that goes undefeated. If still tied, it will be HOW MANY STATE CHAMPIONS you picked out of your seven. And if there's still a tie, it will be overall record of ALL SEVEN teams you picked. Still tied? In the exceedingly unlikely situation, you'll have a fight to the death after the Saturday night game at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. Or you can share the title. Doesn't matter to me.

For example, you would write out your seven like this:

#1 Millersport
#2 Vanlue
#3 Leetonia
#4 Richmond Heights
#5 Ashtabula St. John
#6 Beallsville
#7 Vienna Mathews

Then you sit back and watch your season play out. I will give updates from time to time how players are doing. Once all seven of your teams suffer a loss, your participation in the contest ends.


Picks need to be in by 7pm on FRIDAY! August 23th, 2024. You CAN pick a Thursday playing team if you get your pick in by Thursday before kickoff. This is your only chance to play. There will be no additional opportunities to join.

Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...
I am making the following interpretations: "overall record" means win-loss percentage of all games, OHSAA recognized or not. If, instead, it meant most number of OHSAA recognized wins, there would ensue a bloodbath amongst 4 people, none of which won according to win-loss percentage. If, finally, it meant most number of wins, recognized or not, there would also be a single winner. @Sykotyk is the final judge on interpreting the rules, so don't kill the messenger. ;)


Final Teams Listing
LMS_Teams.png


Entries, sorted by entry sequence only
LMS_BeforeSorting.png


Final Sort (Best asc, Titles dsc, Pct dsc, Seq asc)
LMS_Final.png



Congratulations to @Kirtland4580 for being the Last Man Standing 2024!

Second interpretation: @WJ-OSU-STEELERS , and the trio of @doubtme, @43460, and @Bolts_Fan can slug it out, even though @doubtme's entry was the 16th submitted and would win by gentleman's rules.

Third interpretation: congrats to @WJ-OSU-STEELERS for your Massillon-fueled 100th win!
 
This sort of contest is ALL about the tiebreakers structure. Period.

Some trivia:
We, collectively, went a weighted 3199-119 (0.884) with our picks this year, and we picked 2 of the 4 unbeaten teams from this season, 2 of the 3 beaten title winners, and 10 of the 14 state finalists. Marion Local alone accounted for 528-0 of that total, since only two folks did not choose them.
Every single entry contained at least one state title winner amongst its ranks. All but one (@auscon) picked one of the 4 unbeaten teams this year.

@FirestoneFan, with a 96-6 record, had the best W-L Pct of any entry at 0.941. He was also the only entrant who picked 7 unbeaten regular season teams, so he would have been the regular season Last Man Standing.
@a_td, with a 101-9 W-L record, had the most overall wins by his teams.
@10404life picked 3 state title winners, which was the most.
The fewest wins were by @David Wooderson who went 76-18, dragged down by 4-7 Findlay and 6-5 Cleveland Heights picks.
The most losses and lowest W-L Pct were by @Burgunbiased who went 80-21 (0.792), dragged down by a 4-6 West Jefferson pick.

If @Foster had made 7 picks, instead of 6, where I penalized him with an 0-10 team named NONE, had instead chosen 16-0 Indian Valley to replace NONE, he would have gone 101-8 (0.927 Pct) with 2 Titles and still would NOT have won. Please people, when asked to make 7 picks, please make 7 picks.

There were 35 entries in this contest, where we selected 46 teams in total.
My picks (@LS92) were the Yappi preseason top #1 pick vote winners, and went 91-16 (0.850) with 1 Title. Had I chosen the Yappi preseason poll winners (Ironton instead of Liberty Center), the W-L record would have been the same, but the 2 Titles would have moved me up from 20th place to 15th place, so choosing one of the "safe, consensus picks" strategies was middling in this group of entries, which means that the median participant in this contest is on par with the Yappi preseason poll consensus.

Thanks to @Sykotyk for this year's Last Man Standing contest. It was fun, and thankfully not a weekly grind of submitting entries and praying the people who participated weren't on one's ever-growing Ignore list.

Congrats to all the 2024 state title winners, and to the contest winner, as ruled by @Sykotyk.
 
LS92 said:
Reminder of the Rules

I am making the following interpretations: "overall record" means win-loss percentage of all games, OHSAA recognized or not. If, instead, it meant most number of OHSAA recognized wins, there would ensue a bloodbath amongst 4 people, none of which won according to win-loss percentage. If, finally, it meant most number of wins, recognized or not, there would also be a single winner. @Sykotyk is the final judge on interpreting the rules, so don't kill the messenger. ;)


Final Teams Listing
View attachment 70733

Entries, sorted by entry sequence only
View attachment 70731

Final Sort (Best asc, Titles dsc, Pct dsc, Seq asc)
View attachment 70732


Congratulations to @Kirtland4580 for being the Last Man Standing 2024!

Second interpretation: @WJ-OSU-STEELERS , and the trio of @doubtme, @43460, and @Bolts_Fan can slug it out, even though @doubtme's entry was the 16th submitted and would win by gentleman's rules.

Third interpretation: congrats to @WJ-OSU-STEELERS for your Massillon-fueled 100th win!
Click to expand...
Overall record is overall. Not just OHSAA recognized and winning percentage only.
 
LS92 said:
Reminder of the Rules

I am making the following interpretations: "overall record" means win-loss percentage of all games, OHSAA recognized or not. If, instead, it meant most number of OHSAA recognized wins, there would ensue a bloodbath amongst 4 people, none of which won according to win-loss percentage. If, finally, it meant most number of wins, recognized or not, there would also be a single winner. @Sykotyk is the final judge on interpreting the rules, so don't kill the messenger. ;)


Final Teams Listing
View attachment 70733

Entries, sorted by entry sequence only
View attachment 70731

Final Sort (Best asc, Titles dsc, Pct dsc, Seq asc)
View attachment 70732


Congratulations to @Kirtland4580 for being the Last Man Standing 2024!

Second interpretation: @WJ-OSU-STEELERS , and the trio of @doubtme, @43460, and @Bolts_Fan can slug it out, even though @doubtme's entry was the 16th submitted and would win by gentleman's rules.

Third interpretation: congrats to @WJ-OSU-STEELERS for your Massillon-fueled 100th win!
Click to expand...
this was a lot of fun to follow actually. thanks you all who ran this
 
doubtme said:
this was a lot of fun to follow actually. thanks you all who ran this
Click to expand...
Just my idea, @LS92 went and ran with it keeping track and projecting everything. Kudos to him.

Next year the plan will be the same concept with a few differences to the tie-breakers. And one MAJOR change:

No picking the defending champions!
 
LS92 said:
Reminder of the Rules

I am making the following interpretations: "overall record" means win-loss percentage of all games, OHSAA recognized or not. If, instead, it meant most number of OHSAA recognized wins, there would ensue a bloodbath amongst 4 people, none of which won according to win-loss percentage. If, finally, it meant most number of wins, recognized or not, there would also be a single winner. @Sykotyk is the final judge on interpreting the rules, so don't kill the messenger. ;)


Final Teams Listing
View attachment 70733

Entries, sorted by entry sequence only
View attachment 70731

Final Sort (Best asc, Titles dsc, Pct dsc, Seq asc)
View attachment 70732


Congratulations to @Kirtland4580 for being the Last Man Standing 2024!

Second interpretation: @WJ-OSU-STEELERS , and the trio of @doubtme, @43460, and @Bolts_Fan can slug it out, even though @doubtme's entry was the 16th submitted and would win by gentleman's rules.

Third interpretation: congrats to @WJ-OSU-STEELERS for your Massillon-fueled 100th win!
Click to expand...

Thank you again for organizing
 
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