You figured it about the same but I like the winner of the Lehman / TC games chances a little better being D7 in size. I looked at the last 5 years in D7 and Bradford was 16th in 2016 and Mississinawa would have made it in 2018. Gotta believe out of conference becomes the real question. It's going to be difficult for Northridge to get in playing small schools with only 4 wins. I think they will need 5. Bethel has same issue.Looking at past seasons, I'll guess most teams that go 4-6 will make it in. So to me, the question becomes "how many TRC teams will go 4-6 or better?"
The Math says 4 teams should win 4 of their 7 league games, so then how many times will the 5th and 6th place (2 or 3 league-win) teams win a few OOC games to get to that fourth win?
I'll guess the 5th place team will have 3 league wins (3-5) and at least one OOC win. I'll also guess the 6th place team (potentially 2-6 in league) will not win 2 of 3 OOC games.
There you have it. 5 teams from this league will make the playoffs.
Which 5 in '21? No idea, but I'll guess MU, Covington, East, Riverside (I like their OOC) and the winner of the Northridge/Troy Christian game.