2021 Inaugural Season: Three Rivers Conference

D4fan

Well-known member
Looking at past seasons, I'll guess most teams that go 4-6 will make it in. So to me, the question becomes "how many TRC teams will go 4-6 or better?"
The Math says 4 teams should win 4 of their 7 league games, so then how many times will the 5th and 6th place (2 or 3 league-win) teams win a few OOC games to get to that fourth win?
I'll guess the 5th place team will have 3 league wins (3-5) and at least one OOC win. I'll also guess the 6th place team (potentially 2-6 in league) will not win 2 of 3 OOC games.

There you have it. 5 teams from this league will make the playoffs.

Which 5 in '21? No idea, but I'll guess MU, Covington, East, Riverside (I like their OOC) and the winner of the Northridge/Troy Christian game.
You figured it about the same but I like the winner of the Lehman / TC games chances a little better being D7 in size. I looked at the last 5 years in D7 and Bradford was 16th in 2016 and Mississinawa would have made it in 2018. Gotta believe out of conference becomes the real question. It's going to be difficult for Northridge to get in playing small schools with only 4 wins. I think they will need 5. Bethel has same issue.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
Looking at Drew's site from 2019, the last season he did full evaluation of teams, he has these schools ranked this way

1-Covington #194
2-Milton Union #252
3-Miami East #431
4-Northridge #446
5-Troy Christian #532
6-Riverside # 551
7-Lehman #579
8-Bethel # 659

Quite a spread.
 

dograt

Well-known member
I've just seen many many good game scores between 'Ridge and TC & 'Ridge and Bethel. I could see 'Ridge beating Bethel, Lehman and fighting TC and Riverside for the 4/5/6 spots. If 'Ridge also beats Dixie in week 1, they also have a fair chance against Oakwood and Carlisle.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
I posted this on the MAC site but was not clearly worded.

Looking back in D7 region 28 over the 5 year period of 2015-2019 the 16th place finisher only needed 3 wins most of the time if the opponets they defeated had a combined minimum of 4 wins ( ie. 0-10, 3-7, and 1-9 = 4 combined wins).

With that information, I then tried to figure the probability of how many teams out of 8 would get at least 3 wins. The worst case scenerio is for a league to have perfect decending ability with teams going 7-0, 6-1, 5-2.........1-6,0-7. That gives 5 teams three wins just in conference play. Best case scenerio is 7 teams go 4-3 in conference play and one team goes 0-7. That scenerio would never happen in high school football as teams have too much disproportionate talent and ability. More likely is top four teams all defeat bottom four. That means in the bottom 4 pool you would have these teams producing potential records against each other in the pool of (3-0, 2-1 1-2,0-3) or (2-1,2-1,2-1,0-3) or ( 2-1,2-1,1-2,1-2).

In actual likelihood, one of the bottom four will defeat a team from the top four, and it's likely to be a team that defeated two other of the bottom four, so that team would also have 3 wins just from conference play. If you allow for each of the bottom four to get one win from out of conference then you have a very real possibility that at least 5 of the eight make the top 16 in their region, and by my calculations, a greater than 50% probability that 6 get in so long as they have 1 OOC win.
 

dograt

Well-known member
Good Math. With only 3 d7 schools in this league, it only applies if Riverside, Lehman, or TC end up 5th in this league. or 6th with 1 OOC win, or 7th with 2 OOC wins (unlikely)

I actually think there's good odds of that happening in many years. Maybe I should adjust my prediction to 6 teams in? But if one of these teams is better (1st-4th), it means a bigger school is not (Northridge or Bethel?).

I am going to predict 5 in and hope for a 6th.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
16 teams in seems really strange. Most years a 10 or above gets knocked out early on. Rarely is a 10 or above competitive enough to make a run, outside of the MAC.
I'm pumped for this new league. I read an article that Bethel is preparing for rapid growth. As a school district they expect to be the size of Tipp very soon. They are already larger than Milton from k-12. I believe that makes them the largest district in the TRC.
I can see them eventually wanting to move to a larger conference if that happens.
 

ghsknightsfan

Well-known member
16 teams in seems really strange. Most years a 10 or above gets knocked out early on. Rarely is a 10 or above competitive enough to make a run, outside of the MAC.
I'm pumped for this new league. I read an article that Bethel is preparing for rapid growth. As a school district they expect to be the size of Tipp very soon. They are already larger than Milton from k-12. I believe that makes them the largest district in the TRC.
I can see them eventually wanting to move to a larger conference if that happens.
where could they move? they’d be banking on MVL expansion. SWBL doesn’t make sense geographically. maybe MVL North breaks off. feels weird talking about Bethel being Tipp’s size but that’s the reality these days
 

dograt

Well-known member
yeah, but they have a pretty big population of ethnic groups that are not traditionally active in school sports. Even when they are the biggest 9-12, I'm not sure they will dominate this league.
 

dograt

Well-known member
There are many things to like/hate about 16 teams in. I don't like that it is no longer special to make it in. One big positive is that most every team will still be alive very late in the season. The late season blowouts that happen because a team is just counting down to the end of the season might not happen as often.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
yeah, but they have a pretty big population of ethnic groups that are not traditionally active in school sports. Even when they are the biggest 9-12, I'm not sure they will dominate this league.
Agree. They have not produced much in any sport the last two or three years save for possibly boys soccer. I dont see that changing unless they build 600 new homes and more of a traditional Huber Heights (Wayne) blend occupies them.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
Agree. They have not produced much in any sport the last two or three years save for possibly boys soccer. I dont see that changing unless they build 600 new homes and more of a traditional Huber Heights (Wayne) blend occupies them.
Based on what I read, that's exactly what's going in. Carriage Trace has built 1000 homes and is eyeing another 1000-1500. It's silly to think my ex wife graduated from there in 1990 and had less than 100 in her class.
 

yakyak

Well-known member
There are many things to like/hate about 16 teams in. I don't like that it is no longer special to make it in. One big positive is that most every team will still be alive very late in the season. The late season blowouts that happen because a team is just counting down to the end of the season might not happen as often.
This helps the TC eagles. Finishing .500 against bigger schools IMHO should get you in the playoffs. The old system not sure if it would. They should do like college where you need to be .500 to make the playoffs. That might be hard to make a working bracket without knowing your teams till week 10 though.
 

ex_dc_atc

Well-known member
16 teams in seems really strange. Most years a 10 or above gets knocked out early on. Rarely is a 10 or above competitive enough to make a run, outside of the MAC.
I'm pumped for this new league. I read an article that Bethel is preparing for rapid growth. As a school district they expect to be the size of Tipp very soon. They are already larger than Milton from k-12. I believe that makes them the largest district in the TRC.
I can see them eventually wanting to move to a larger conference if that happens.

I feel like Bethel has been growing and will continue to grow. I had mentioned before that the athletic programs seem to be lagging behind, but I would expect the growth in the community to happen first, then the growth of the field later. To me, Bethel's football program looks like it's vastly underachieving and would be a great opportunity long term. With this new league, I see no reason they can't be competing with the top teams, comparing their size to a Miami East.
 

ex_dc_atc

Well-known member
There are many things to like/hate about 16 teams in. I don't like that it is no longer special to make it in. One big positive is that most every team will still be alive very late in the season. The late season blowouts that happen because a team is just counting down to the end of the season might not happen as often.

The main positives I can see are that teams from the MAC or potentially private schools that might have missed the playoffs before, have a better shot at making it in. Those are the types of teams in general that I could see also having post season success. Many of the 8-16 teams won't really offer a massive playoff boost in competition. The MAC or private schools could have regular playoff success. By regular success, I mean being able to win a game or two. I think we started to see that during last season's "COVID Playoff System". Several MAC teams that would've missed the playoffs won a playoff game or two. We also saw Lake Catholic make the DIV state championship game in what probably wouldn't have been a playoff team in the 8 team format.

One other potential positive is scheduling. When the playoff system went from 4 to 8 teams, you definitely saw an uptick in OOC games. Clinton Massie comes to mind. They started to play anyone and everyone in their OOC, challenging themselves greatly. With 16 teams now making the playoffs, I would think that potentially increases that scheduling mindset. Maybe even seeing larger schools take on some of the mighty smaller schools.
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
I feel like Bethel has been growing and will continue to grow. I had mentioned before that the athletic programs seem to be lagging behind, but I would expect the growth in the community to happen first, then the growth of the field later. To me, Bethel's football program looks like it's vastly underachieving and would be a great opportunity long term. With this new league, I see no reason they can't be competing with the top teams, comparing their size to a Miami East.
Read an article in the Dayton Business Journal that they expect Bethel to outgrow Tipp City. Milton and the rest of the TRC will be chasing them in most sports. I could see a Bethel vs Tipp rivalry in the future.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
Read an article in the Dayton Business Journal that they expect Bethel to outgrow Tipp City. Milton and the rest of the TRC will be chasing them in most sports. I could see a Bethel vs Tipp rivalry in the future.
Wouldn't think it impossible, but right now Bethel has growing pains in the sense that it is a tiny school looking back and the community is not relating to a large school idea. Not many years ago there was talk of it being too small to continue and many wanted to divide it up and close the school down. Now it is larger than Miami East.

Still the size is not translating into quality programs. Culture shock is a prime factor in their inability to build a program. The rural families keep looking for that small local flavor while the spillover from Huber Heights never were that into supporting athletics. The end result is many kids skip the idea of representing their community when the community is unrecognizable.

They will have the numbers but not sure they will be interested in program building.
 

ghsknightsfan

Well-known member
Wouldn't think it impossible, but right now Bethel has growing pains in the sense that it is a tiny school looking back and the community is not relating to a large school idea. Not many years ago there was talk of it being too small to continue and many wanted to divide it up and close the school down. Now it is larger than Miami East.

Still the size is not translating into quality programs. Culture shock is a prime factor in their inability to build a program. The rural families keep looking for that small local flavor while the spillover from Huber Heights never were that into supporting athletics. The end result is many kids skip the idea of representing their community when the community is unrecognizable.

They will have the numbers but not sure they will be interested in program building.
Bethel needs an identity and not being named “Tipp City Bethel” by the OHSAA is a start. wish a village could develop in the district. maybe Brandt?
 

D4fan

Well-known member
Bethel needs an identity and not being named “Tipp City Bethel” by the OHSAA is a start. wish a village could develop in the district. maybe Brandt?
Brandt is the modest housing section of Bethel township.

Things are building up all around Brandt, two gas stations now in the township ( 201 Big Mike's and 202 just south of Phonton.

I serve on a planning committee and let's just say they needed a committee many years ago. 201 is lined with industrial and service businesses, now you throw in a Dollar store and that does not help bring the best of business to the area. There is a nice little independent restaurant on 40 that serves pizza and icecream. The best restaurant hands down though is Tom's Deli on 571, but that is the old alchohol depot that served New Carlisle when they were a "dry town". It's essentially New Carlisle.

With all the big box stores and restaurants in Tipp and Huber I seriously doubt Bethel will ever develop Brandt into a functioning village. It will likely still be the best place in the township to get a starter home.
 

ghsknightsfan

Well-known member
Brandt is the modest housing section of Bethel township.

Things are building up all around Brandt, two gas stations now in the township ( 201 Big Mike's and 202 just south of Phonton.

I serve on a planning committee and let's just say they needed a committee many years ago. 201 is lined with industrial and service businesses, now you throw in a Dollar store and that does not help bring the best of business to the area. There is a nice little independent restaurant on 40 that serves pizza and icecream. The best restaurant hands down though is Tom's Deli on 571, but that is the old alchohol depot that served New Carlisle when they were a "dry town". It's essentially New Carlisle.

With all the big box stores and restaurants in Tipp and Huber I seriously doubt Bethel will ever develop Brandt into a functioning village. It will likely still be the best place in the township to get a starter home.
would be nice if they could develop Brandt. Bethel needs an identity and having that town within the district could help
 

BlessEmAll

Moderator
Most folks in Bethel are ok with the Tipp City mailing address. My ex-in laws live there and it's just a area that folks are either New Carlisle, Tipp or Huber. I like Bethel. I can see eventually Huber growing out there more and wanting to annex the whole township. Bethel then becomes Huber Heights Bethel. Just sayin.
Kinda like Union has grown so much due to Englewood becoming a hood, Union still has an Englewood zip code.
 
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