2013 Central District

rjones, no one is declaring UA dead or done. The observation is that next year the district meet will be far more competitive for the team title. If UA were "done" that wouldn't be the case. And by the way, shockingly you are selling the 2006 UA team short. (Guess there's a first for everything.) Anyway, that "uncharacteristically weak" team in 2006 simply ran up against a more talented St. Charles team. Run the numbers, they do not lie. Place the 2006 SC team into the 2013 District as the St. Charles team or the 2013 UA team into the 2006 District as the Arlington team and UA finishes second in each meet. So either you are wrong in your characterization of the 2006 team as "weak" or you must feel that the 2013 team was "weak" as well. Of course, their victory in the District meet and runner up finish in the state meet this year makes that conclusion a tough sell.
 
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You are correct about the 2006 UA team aquacard. That team was very competitive. However, unless UA has a strong freshman class you have to give SC the edge to win the district. At the state level no Central District team appears to be competitive for a top spot in the team race. As things stand now it looks like the Southwest will dominate the team race. Expect X to repeat and Moeller is the early favorite for the runner up spot. A top 5 finish by SC or UA would be an outstanding meet for either team.
 
I agree that it will be a close battle for the central division title next year but I do think both teams will be able to make the top 5 next considering St. Francis is down in talent as well. X looks to be the favorite to win it all again, however Moeller does have a chance. It's this simple.. If moeller gets the potential transfer they will beat x, if they don't then they will be runner ups.
 
How do you figure that St. Francis is not in the running for the runner-up spot and that their talent is down. St. Francis had 4 swimmers score points at the state meet and got 4th place in the team standings. 3 of those swimmers are back. Their medley finished 2nd and all of those swimmers are back, which should make them the favorite to win that event. They should be the favorite to win the 200 free relay. They will have one swimmer who will go below 20 and two who will go 20 point, and they have younger swimmers who will split 21 point. In individual events, they will be competing for titles in the 50/100 free, IM, and breast at the very least. St. Francis does not have the numbers to compete with St. X for the team title, but they will bring more swimmers this next year than they brought this year, and if they get their relay starts down this time, they will score more points than all but St. X.
 
I didn't mean to infer that Francis would not make the top 5. No doubt Francis will make the top 5. The point I was trying to make was that there is not going to be any teams that are going to run away with the state title and even the top 5 is open for many teams
 
The only problem with St. Francis is that their relay starts suck every year. I wouldn't doubt if they get DQ'd in 2 of the 3 relays this year.
 
Then St. Francis must have the best swimmers in the state if their relay starts suck so bad and they have won or finished second in so many relays over the past 5 years or so. No other school can claim as many titles as St. Francis has in the relays since 2009. Man, just think how many relay titles they would have if they did not suck so bad!!!!!!

Let me be the first to give you a headsup, their relay starts will not suck this year so look out!!!!!!!!
 
rjones said:
Unlike in 2006 when the team was uncharacteristically weak having no returning stars, the 2014 Bears have plenty returning (Trace, Reardon & Newcome) and can expect significant improvement from the younger guys (Miles, Hamilton & Gorski).
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aquacard said:
Anyway, that "uncharacteristically weak" team in 2006 simply ran up against a more talented St. Charles team. Run the numbers, they do not lie. Place the 2006 SC team into the 2013 District as the St. Charles team or the 2013 UA team into the 2006 District as the Arlington team and UA finishes second in each meet.
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Interesting analysis aquacard. But the 2006 UA team was considerably weaker at the state level. They only qualified 2 swimmers (in 3 events), 1 diver, and 2 of 3 relays to the state meet. That is a significantly diminished presence in the state meet. rjones may have a point about the comparative quality of the top of the 2006 & 2014 UA teams. Nonetheless, looking strickly at the 2013 times and the overall teams, SC has an edge on UA in the district meet going into next season. That edge disappears at the state meet.
 
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By "sucking" I meant that they always false start. I didn't mean that they were slow. St. Francis' relay starts are fast, but way too fast because they false start every year.
 
OhioSwimming said:
By "sucking" I meant that they always false start. I didn't mean that they were slow. St. Francis' relay starts are fast, but way too fast because they false start every year.
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True StF has had more false starts on their relays in recent years than any of the other swimming powers. But they also have had a fair amount of success. In fact in the last 5 years the Knights have won more state relay championships than any other school...including X. During that same period untimely injuries and/or relay DQs have cost them one state team title (2011) and at least one runner up trophy (2012).
 
aquacard said:
Based on who is coming back and not factoring improvement or freshmen into the scoring, next year the Central District looks to be very competitive with a slight edge right now to SC.
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Rumor is that SC loses some underclassmen next year. Do you still think SC has the edge?
 
rjones said:
Don't have any names. Just heard that not all the seniors will be back.
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If that is true, depending on which seniors that could remove SC as a threat to unseat UA in the district. Remember in 2010 when Schuttinger transferred to Westerville Central SC hung on by the slimmest margin (1/2 point) to win the district. It will be interesting to see the roster next season.
 
i think the sc kid who won't be swimming this year is aslaner, apparently he is doing a study abroad in turkey for a year (what a cool opportunity), additionally looks like ua has another stud coming in andrew kibbe won the backstroke at jo's this past weekend, the younger kabelka looks very promising as well for sc, do you guys think this info changes anything? we should see some interesting times at sectionals and senior meet this week to see how the returning swimmers have trained this summer!
 
You're right swimmer24, the studs just keep coming for UA. With or without Aslaner, SC was always swimming for second! So no, Aslaner's absence won't change anything other than for those who deluded themselves into to thinking that UA 2014 was UA 2006. Unlike 2006 when UA was weak and rebuilding, UA now simply reloads!
 
Despite rjones' bravado, the district meet is far from decided. No question if SC loses Aslaner, winning becomes more difficult, but not impossible. Based on what's returning UA certainly has the edge, but victory is far from guaranteed. Indeed, a review of returning points would indicate that SC has more room to move up. And of course freshmen can effect this as well. Finally, who wins the meet could depend on the relays. Looking forward to a very competitive year with SC & UA battling all season.
 
I don't know aquacard, if SC loses Aslaner, not only do they lose his individual points but their relays will be impacted. That could be as much as a 50 point swing in the team scores. I think it becomes very difficult for them to dethrone UA at the district meet. The Ned Reeb should give us some idea of what to expect.
 
agree with you swimfan, especially after looking at results the past week at sectionals/senior meet
sc: both kabelkas and welty swam well, penn not bad, a couple of other here and there
ua: trace, reardon, newcome, hamilton, fischer, kibbe etc. all swam and swam well to very well in some cases
sc does have more boys who don't swim year round so it is hard to judge accurately, but the aslaner loss is huge from my perspective
jerome (scott, burns) looks to be looking at third along with darby (cook) and maybe coffman (orlov and horton)
 
I see that Aslaner is not on SC's water polo roster. That would seem to confirm that he's not available this year. Good news for UA's prospects of holding on to the District crown.
 
Without Aslaner you have to see UA as the favorite. But then nothing is certain and that's why you swim the meet. I can see SC winning. They're deeper than UA, but they will need to step up. Should make for a very competitive season.
 
dutchman, UA is the favorite whether SC has Aslaner or not. This year Trace, Reardon, & Newcome will be the top 3 in the Central District and swim their 4 events (relays and individual) in the top heat at the state meet. SC has no chance of defeating the Bears.
 
No doubt Trace, Newcome & Reardon will swim well and place high in the district. But only Trace is a certain top heat at the state meet. Reardon & Newcome will advance to state, but no certainty they will top heat in their event(s). UA will need someone else to step up to score well in the relays at the state meet. And yes, UA should be favored for the district crown, but it too early to crown them champs.
 
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