2013 Central District

S

swimmer24

Member
With psych sheets coming out this week for sectionals, time for some predictions, UA and SC seem to be shoo ins for first and second respectively, but the district looks pretty deep with Jerome, Coffman, Darby, Pick North and others bringing a chunk of kids to states! Predictions? Here are mine:
200 MR: UA, SC, PN
200 Free: Long, Kabelka, Cook
200 IM: Reardon, McKinley, Harper
50 Free: Trace, Whitaker, Miller
Fly: Higdon, Jelen, Barton
100: Miller, Whitaker, Dickhaut
500: Long, Kabelka, Cook
200 Relay: UA, Jerome, SC
Back: Trace, Jelen, Martin
Breast: Reardon, Harper, McKinley
400 Relay: UA, SC, Coffman
Thoughts???
 
 
UA is a lock for the district - don't expect SC to be within 100 points - and will challenge for the state title. They will sweep the relays in the district & possibly again at the state meet. Depending on how rested they are they will win every district event except diving and the 100 free. Both Long & Trace will individually be double winners in the state meet. Expect the following to move on to the state meet individually:

200 Free: Long, Newcome & Miles (on the bubble)
200 IM: I. Reardon & C. Reardon (on the bubble)
50 Free: Trace & Dickhaut
Fly: Jelen & Sullivan (on the bubble)
100: Dickhaut
500: Long, Newcome, Miles & C. Reardon (on the bubble)
Back: Trace, Jelen, & Sullivan (on the bubble)
Breast: I. Reardon

Watch out St. X the Bears are coming!
 
It will be interesting to see if the district is as deep as last year. Comparing times at this point last year to this year and it appears that the field was a bit faster top to bottom last year. As usual rjones has overstated UA's prospects...especially at the state level and in his prediction of who will move on individually to the state meet for UA. The relays, Reardon, Trace, & Long are givens. Obviously, Long is the favorite in the 200 & 500. Trace could win both his events and Reardon should top heat his. Any others moving on individually would be a surprise. Don't think that UA will challenge X but agree they are in the battle for second. UA & SC are a lock for first and second in the district but rjones' projected point gap seems overly optimistic...big surprise! Presumably, Long, Trace & Reardon will not taper for district meet. Although the rest probably will, UA doesn't look as deep as they were last year. Meanwhile, the top of SC's team may score better than 2012, but the bottom will be weaker. Expect SC to fully taper everyone for the district. This year they will likely taper some for sectional just to try and get them to the district. Ultimately how they score will depend on how they taper. And if the performance by their JV last weekend is an indicator, they will taper very well. The time drops were impressive and generally larger than in past years. Still, don't expect either UA or SC to move all their swimmers to the district as has happened in the past. Agree that the battle for third is wide open and will be very competitive. Relay finishes will ultimately determine who takes third. As to the predicted event finishes it looks like Swimmer24 has it about right. Anyway, it should be a great end of the season. Looking forward to seeing some surprises in the psych sheets and in the year end swims. Good luck to all!
 
rjones said:
UA is a lock for the district - don't expect SC to be within 100 points - and will challenge for the state title. They will sweep the relays in the district & possibly again at the state meet. Depending on how rested they are they will win every district event except diving and the 100 free. Both Long & Trace will individually be double winners in the state meet. Expect the following to move on to the state meet individually:

200 Free: Long, Newcome & Miles (on the bubble)
200 IM: I. Reardon & C. Reardon (on the bubble)
50 Free: Trace & Dickhaut
Fly: Jelen & Sullivan (on the bubble)
100: Dickhaut
500: Long, Newcome, Miles & C. Reardon (on the bubble)
Back: Trace, Jelen, & Sullivan (on the bubble)
Breast: I. Reardon

Watch out St. X the Bears are coming!
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UA will not be close at all to St X at state. UA girls might even lose to Ursuline in the girls. The 200 and 500 free are wide open this year so don't expect Long to be a lock to win state in those events. Wooley is in the 100 back so don't count on Trace winning that one.
 
i would consider jelen a lock to make states in two events as he has each of the last two years, scoring in both last year
 
Not sure how UA can beat St. X, when they lost to St. Francis and St. Francis was down one of their top sprinters. X wins in a landslide. Long and Trace are great swimmers, but I would not count 4 individual victories for them just yet. The 50 is going to be very competitive, with last year's winning time getting you 4th or 5th this year.
 
OhioSwimming said:
UA will not be close at all to St X at state. UA girls might even lose to Ursuline in the girls. The 200 and 500 free are wide open this year so don't expect Long to be a lock to win state in those events. Wooley is in the 100 back so don't count on Trace winning that one.
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Bombers have a strong senior class this year. There will be others that step up as well. Coach Brower and the coaching staff gets them ready to throw it down every year.

Always good to see, meet and talk with the Bear faithfull at 4:00 a.m. or earlier in line at the pool to get the seats for prelims.
 
i dont think anyone realistically thinks x is going to be challenged, the real question is who can challenge ua for second, sf would have with trimble, i dont think centerville, iggy, hudon, or anyone else have enough depth at the state level to challenge for second
 
Top 5 predictions:

Medley: UA, Pick North, SC, Darby, Thomas
200 Free: Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Weaver (Scioto), Horton (Coffman), Newcome (UA)
200 IM: Cook (Darby), Harper (Thomas), I. Reardon (UA), McKinley (SC), Aslaner (SC)
50 Free: Miller (W. North), Trace (UA), Whitaker (W. Central), Bailey (Grove City), Calcara (SC)
100 Fly: J. Higdon (W. South), Jelen (UA), Barton (Jerome), Martin (Pick. N), C. Higdon (W. South)
100 Free: Miller (W. North), Griffith (Pick. N), Bailey (Grove City), Dickhaut (UA), Scott (Jerome)
500 Free: Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Cook (Darby), Weaver (Scioto), Orlov (Coffman)
200 Relay: UA, Jerome, Coffman, SC, Thomas
100 Back: Trace (UA), Martin (Pick. N), Penn (SC), Jelen (UA), Satre (Bradley)
100 Breast: Harper (UA), I. Reardon (UA), McKinley (SC), Welty (SC), Kendall (SC)
400 Relay: UA, SC, Jerome, Coffman, Darby
 
Interesting picks Aquacard. See a few that I really like to come out and race. Mason Miller, the new kid at W. North has really yet to match what he went last year. He should double in the 50 and 100. His stroke is textbook. I think that Reardon is racing very well in the IM and should win, with Harper in 2nd. There is a dark horse from Thomas to watch named Teufel. This kid has only been swimming 1 1/2 and he is capable of a mid 21 in the 50. He is consistently splitting under 22 with a horrible start. He might also slip in the top 3 in the 100, he ate up Dickhaut at OCCs. I would like to see Joey Long really tear it up, he deserves it.
 
aquacard said:
Top 5 predictions:

Medley: UA, Pick North, SC, Darby, Thomas
200 Free: Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Weaver (Scioto), Horton (Coffman), Newcome (UA)
200 IM: Cook (Darby), Harper (Thomas), I. Reardon (UA), McKinley (SC), Aslaner (SC)
50 Free: Miller (W. North), Trace (UA), Whitaker (W. Central), Bailey (Grove City), Calcara (SC)
100 Fly: J. Higdon (W. South), Jelen (UA), Barton (Jerome), Martin (Pick. N), C. Higdon (W. South)
100 Free: Miller (W. North), Griffith (Pick. N), Bailey (Grove City), Dickhaut (UA), Scott (Jerome)
500 Free: Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Cook (Darby), Weaver (Scioto), Orlov (Coffman)
200 Relay: UA, Jerome, Coffman, SC, Thomas
100 Back: Trace (UA), Martin (Pick. N), Penn (SC), Jelen (UA), Satre (Bradley)
100 Breast: Harper (UA), I. Reardon (UA), McKinley (SC), Welty (SC), Kendall (SC)
400 Relay: UA, SC, Jerome, Coffman, Darby
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Looking over the psych sheets this seems pretty close. I think you need to add Griffith in fly & Horton in the 100. Preeder's right about Teufel from Thomas who could make some noise in the 50 & 100. Even though Whitaker comes in an 11 seed in the 50...he will move up in the 50 and if he's like his brother could end near the top in the fly. Kilbourne has a freshman in the 50 - Tajima who could crack the top 5. He's swimming all the relays so Kilbourne will move up there as well.

In the team race it should be quite a battle for 3rd. Based only on the sectional psych sheets, Darby, Coffman & Pick North are less than 20 points apart. Jerome and Thomas could move up with a great taper. Anyway, it will be interesting to see where things stand after the sectionals.
 
Hey preeder are you announcing the district meet? I always think you do a nice job with that...especially giving the extra tidbits and working the crowd when someone is close to a record. Hope you're doing it again this year.
 
thedutchman said:
Hey preeder are you announcing the district meet? I always think you do a nice job with that...especially giving the extra tidbits and working the crowd when someone is close to a record. Hope you're doing it again this year.
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Yes, this might be the last year, since my daughter is a senior. Thanks for the encouraging words. I really like doing it. I hope that I don't yak too much, but I like it when the crowd is loud and into the race.

Swim fan, unfortunately, Kilbourne's Tajima is going to Japan and will not be swimming at Districts and will scratch at Sectionals.
 
anyone at any of the sectional meets this year? looks like central district keeps getting faster in many events...any predictions change after sectionals? can either of the dublins really hang with ua in the free relays? aquacard any of your top 5 change?
 
At the UA sectional didn't seem like many were suited or shaved. UA swimmers looked very good, the lower end of their team appeared tapered for the meet in an effort to move them on to the district. That worked everywhere but the 100 and their fourth swimmer in the 50. SC for the most part looked tired and slow...but then that seems to happen every year and then they drop time significantly the next week. Because they swam slow for the most part, SC has room to move up in the scoring. Still UA will win by a comfortable margin. SC did have some swimmers suited and shaved presumably like UA to move them on to the district. All but one did. It will be a surprise if any of the rested swimmers finish in the top 16 this week. Both Westerville North and Central swam very well in the UA sectional. It will be interesting to see if they continue to drop time.

UA & SC had unstacked relays. Maybe this year UA will keep the relays unstacked this week to move more swimmers to the state meet. Typically UA stacks its relays at the district meet. SC who in stronger years has unstacked its district relays will definately stack them and still may not move all their relays (400 free) on this year.

Revised top 5 predictions after sectional:

Medley: UA, Pick North, SC, Thomas, Darby
200 Free: Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Weaver (Scioto), Newcome (UA), Horton (Coffman)
200 IM: I. Reardon (UA), Cook (Darby), Harper (Thomas), McKinley (SC), Aslaner (SC)
50 Free: Miller (W. North), Trace (UA), Bailey (Grove City), Hinton (Delaware Hayes), Whitaker (W. Central)
100 Fly: J. Higdon (W. South), Jelen (UA), Barton (Jerome), Martin (Pick. N), C. Higdon (W. South)
100 Free: Miller (W. North), Horton (Coffman), Bailey (Grove City), Hinton (Delaware Hayes), Scott (Jerome)
500 Free: Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Cook (Darby), Weaver (Scioto), Orlov (Coffman)
200 Relay: UA, Jerome, Coffman, SC, Thomas
100 Back: Trace (UA), Martin (Pick. N), Penn (SC), Jelen (UA), Satre (Bradley)
100 Breast: Harper (Thomas), I. Reardon (UA), McKinley (SC), Welty (SC), Kendall (SC)
400 Relay: UA, Jerome, Coffman, SC, Darby
Teams: UA, SC, Jerome, Darby, Pick N.
 
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i think i agree for the most part with you, although i think trace will win the 50, he has been well ahead of the field all year in that event and i. reardon in the breast again 5900 already
 
swimmer24 said:
i think i agree for the most part with you, although i think trace will win the 50, he has been well ahead of the field all year in that event and i. reardon in the breast again 5900 already
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You may be right. The only reason I didn't pick Trace & Reardon in the 50 & breast is because I don't think they will taper for the district meet and I think Miller & Harper will.
 
Trace & Reardon will not taper for district but will still win their events. Team score: UA 390, SC 210. Watch out St.X the Bears are coming!
 
Based on the sectional times the meet scores UA 365, St. Charles 210 without diving. However, based on past years St. Charles will increase their score significantly at the district meet. Meanwhile, UA historically has stayed about the same. That's because although UA will drop time, there is not much room to move up as most of their scoring swimmers are already holding the top seeds. UA will win handily but the gap will be narrower than rjones predicts.
 
rjones said:
Trace & Reardon will not taper for district but will still win their events. Team score: UA 390, SC 210. Watch out St.X the Bears are coming!
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oops! Miller looked unbeatable in the 50 and the 100 and Harper lead start to finish in breast.
 
How they finished vs. prediction:

Original top 5, but different place italics; not predicted in top 5 bold

Medley: Predicted - UA, Pick North, SC, Thomas, Darby; Actual - UA, SC, Pick North, Thomas, Darby

200 Free: Predicted - Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Weaver (Scioto), Newcome (UA), Horton (Coffman); Actual - Long (UA), Horton (Coffman), Newcome (UA), Kabelka (SC), Hackett (Delaware Hayes)[/B]

200 IM: Predicted - I. Reardon (UA), Cook (Darby), Harper (Thomas), McKinley (SC), Aslaner (SC); Actual - I. Reardon (UA), Cook (Darby), Harper (Thomas), McKinley (SC), C. Reardon (UA)

50 Free: Predicted - Miller (W. North), Trace (UA), Bailey (Grove City), Hinton (Delaware Hayes), Whitaker (W. Central); Actual - Miller (W. North), Whitaker (W. Central), Trace (UA),Hinton (Delaware Hayes), Cashman (Jerome)

100 Fly: Predicted: J. Higdon (W. South), Jelen (UA), Barton (Jerome), Martin (Pick. N), C. Higdon (W. South); Actual - J. Higdon (W. South), Martin (Pick. N), Barton (Jerome), Jelen (UA), G. Whitaker (W. Central)

100 Free: Projected - Miller (W. North), Horton (Coffman), Bailey (Grove City), Hinton (Delaware Hayes), Scott (Jerome); Actual - Miller (W. North), Horton (Coffman), Scott (Jerome), Bailey (Grove City), Hinton (Delaware Hayes),

500 Free: Projected - Long (UA), Kabelka (SC), Cook (Darby), Weaver (Scioto), Orlov (Coffman); Actual - Cook (Darby), Long (UA), Newcome (UA), Kabelka (SC), Hackett, (Delaware Hayes)

200 Relay: Projected - UA, Jerome, Coffman, SC, Thomas; Actual - Jerome, UA, Coffman, W. Central, SC

100 Back: Projected - Trace (UA), Martin (Pick. N), Penn (SC), Jelen (UA), Satre (Bradley); Actual - Trace (UA), Martin (Pick. N), Jelen (UA), Penn (SC), Satre (Bradley)

100 Breast: Projected - Harper (Thomas), I. Reardon (UA), McKinley (SC), Welty (SC), Kendall (SC); Actual - Harper (Thomas), I. Reardon (UA), McKinley (SC), Welty (SC), Dawson (O. Liberty)

400 Relay: Projected - UA, Jerome, Coffman, SC, Darby; Actual - UA, SC, Jerome, W. Central, Coffman

Teams: Projected - UA, SC, Jerome, Darby, Pick N.; Actual - UA, SC, Jerome, Darby, Coffman
 
thedutchman said:
Based on the sectional times the meet scores UA 365, St. Charles 210 without diving. However, based on past years St. Charles will increase their score significantly at the district meet. Meanwhile, UA historically has stayed about the same. That's because although UA will drop time, there is not much room to move up as most of their scoring swimmers are already holding the top seeds. UA will win handily but the gap will be narrower than rjones predicts.
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dutchman you hit it right on the nose. Projected scores without diving UA 365, SC 210. Final score without diving, UA 357 (-8 ), SC 265 (+55). Once again SC moved up significantly from the sectional placing. Another very enjoyable meet. The Central District sent the second most swimmers to the state meet. Out of 264 possible swims in the state meet the break down by district is: SW 104; Central 63; NW 50; & NE 47. Wondering who will hold their time next week. Traditionally, that's what it takes to move up in the state meet.
 
swimfan said:
dutchman you hit it right on the nose. Projected scores without diving UA 365, SC 210. Final score without diving, UA 357 (-8 ), SC 265 (+55). Once again SC moved up significantly from the sectional placing. Another very enjoyable meet.
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But whose swimming for the title swimfan? And this week UA wil be tapered and all will be wearing fast suits unlike last week.
 
Speaking of fast suits, who picked UA's. I thought their colors were black & gold. Why are they wearing lime green?
 
rjones said:
But whose swimming for the title swimfan? And this week UA wil be tapered and all will be wearing fast suits unlike last week.
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Long was the only UA swimmer not shaved or wearing a fast suit. He looked very comfortable and his drive in the last 10 yards of the 4 free relay proved that he has speed to burn.
 
Based on who is coming back and not factoring improvement or freshmen into the scoring, next year the Central District looks to be very competitive with a slight edge right now to SC. That said UA could repeat, assuming they can win a couple of relays. Of more interest, however, is how the gap seems to be closing for the rest of the field. Specifically, Coffman & Darby may move to within striking distance of SC or UA for second.
 
Agree that it will be closer than this year, but unless UA has some phenomenal time drops or a super freshman or two, they won't be able to put together 3 relays that will win. SC tops them on returning points in individual events and may beat them in all the relays. Depending on placing, that could be an additional 18 or more points that SC picks up on UA. At best SC and UA will be about even from relay points. Then SC's numbers (in scoring opportunities) will top UA. You are correct that it looks like both SC & UA are coming back to the rest of the district. A good meet for SC would be to score over 300 points. Doubt anyone can score 350.
 
swimfan said:
Agree that it will be closer than this year, but unless UA has some phenomenal time drops or a super freshman or two, they won't be able to put together 3 relays that will win. SC tops them on returning points in individual events and may beat them in all the relays. Depending on placing, that could be an additional 18 or more points that SC picks up on UA. At best SC and UA will be about even from relay points. Then SC's numbers (in scoring opportunities) will top UA. You are correct that it looks like both SC & UA are coming back to the rest of the district. A good meet for SC would be to score over 300 points. Doubt anyone can score 350.
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No question that the District Meet will be very competitive and much closer than the last 3 years. However, it is premature to write UA off. Yes they lose an outstanding senior class, but they still have some great swimmers coming back and over the years UA has routinely developed state qualifiers in their junior and senior years from swimmers who seemed quite ordinary in their freshman and/or sophomore seasons. Just to name a few of the recent examples look at the times for Huffman, Higbee, Spangler, Rabe & Orr in their freshman and in some cases sophomore years. Looking over UA's roster there appear to be some similar diamonds in the rough within the freshman & sophomore classes. It will be interesting to see what develops next year, but it's way to soon to declare the end of UA's championship reign.
 
You are correct dutchman, it's waaaaaaaay to early to declare the Bears done! And aquacard & swimfan, keep in mind that 2014 will not be another 2006! Yes like in 2005, the 2013 Bears graduate an outstanding senior class but it's not the time to rebuild, but time to reload! Unlike in 2006 when the team was uncharacteristically weak having no returning stars, the 2014 Bears have plenty returning (Trace, Reardon & Newcome) and can expect significant improvement from the younger guys (Miles, Hamilton & Gorski). Look for the Bears to easily continue their domination of the Central District. With the projected time drops from the top of the team, they will again challenge X at the state level. Go Bears!
 
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