#16 seeds the last five years (DV-DVII)

thavoice

Well-known member
Good morning y'all.

Here is a breakdown in the years 2015-2019, and some details, on the records of the 16 seeds.

2015-2019, the last 5 'normal' seasons this is the breakdown of the #16 seed's record,

There would have been 60 #16 vs 1 games in the last 5 seasons in DV-D7. These are the records of those 60 #16 teams and some additional details.

6-4: 4 teams. 16 Leetonia vs Cuy Heights. CH lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Mad plains vs Taft. Taft lost in round 2. Could this have been an 16 vs 1 upset??????
-----------------16 Smithville vs Rootstown. Roots lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Ironton vs Wheelersburg. Burg lost in round 3.

5-5: 13 teams.

4-6: 25 teams. Of note (2019) #16 Ft Recovery vs LCC. LCC Lost in the first round of the playoffs. Could the Fort upset LCC that season?

4-5: 1 team.

3-7: 15 teams.

3-6: 1 team.

2-8: 1 team.


In closing:
Of the 60 #16 seeds, 43 were below .500.

What say you?
 

WishYouWereHere

Active member
Good morning y'all.

Here is a breakdown in the years 2015-2019, and some details, on the records of the 16 seeds.

2015-2019, the last 5 'normal' seasons this is the breakdown of the #16 seed's record,

There would have been 60 #16 vs 1 games in the last 5 seasons in DV-D7. These are the records of those 60 #16 teams and some additional details.

6-4: 4 teams. 16 Leetonia vs Cuy Heights. CH lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Mad plains vs Taft. Taft lost in round 2. Could this have been an 16 vs 1 upset??????
-----------------16 Smithville vs Rootstown. Roots lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Ironton vs Wheelersburg. Burg lost in round 3.

5-5: 13 teams.

4-6: 25 teams. Of note (2019) #16 Ft Recovery vs LCC. LCC Lost in the first round of the playoffs. Could the Fort upset LCC that season?

4-5: 1 team.

3-7: 15 teams.

3-6: 1 team.

2-8: 1 team.


In closing:
Of the 60 #16 seeds, 43 were below .500.

What say you?
Nice investigative work.
 

dnis30

Well-known member
Good morning y'all.

Here is a breakdown in the years 2015-2019, and some details, on the records of the 16 seeds.

2015-2019, the last 5 'normal' seasons this is the breakdown of the #16 seed's record,

There would have been 60 #16 vs 1 games in the last 5 seasons in DV-D7. These are the records of those 60 #16 teams and some additional details.

6-4: 4 teams. 16 Leetonia vs Cuy Heights. CH lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Mad plains vs Taft. Taft lost in round 2. Could this have been an 16 vs 1 upset??????
-----------------16 Smithville vs Rootstown. Roots lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Ironton vs Wheelersburg. Burg lost in round 3.

5-5: 13 teams.

4-6: 25 teams. Of note (2019) #16 Ft Recovery vs LCC. LCC Lost in the first round of the playoffs. Could the Fort upset LCC that season?

4-5: 1 team.

3-7: 15 teams.

3-6: 1 team.

2-8: 1 team.


In closing:
Of the 60 #16 seeds, 43 were below .500.

What say you?
I say, not one of those teams belong. Not one. This sh*t is purely about more games, more money.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
Nice investigative work.
Thanks, unless you were being sarcastic.

I did a more in depth one this winter with records and % of making it when the proposal was the top 12. In looking at the numbers I liked the 12 team setup. In D5-7 if you win 7 games you were almost assuredly be in. Less than that.........you are rolling the dice. I Just dont have time to do the this for the top 16 but I would gather that win total dropped to 6 wins get you in almost every time


THIS WAS THE % and WIN TOTALS FOR THE TOP 12 PLAYOFF FORMAT THAT WAS ABORTED (PUN INTENDED) AND NEVER GIVEN A CHANCE BY THE OHSAA.......
Of course, it depends on a lot of other factors, but it gives a little insight on what has been the chances since the 7 division format was adopted.

DIVISION 5:
10 wins: 100%
9 wins: 100%
8 wins: 100%
7 wins: 93.3 %
6 wins: 65.9%
5 wins: 40.2 %
4 wins: 9.9 %
3 wins: only one team would have finished in the top 12 with 3 wins, and I did not track all the 3 win teams who did NOT make it.


DIVISION 6:
10, 9, 8 wins: 100%
7 wins: 90.2%
6 wins: 66.3%
5 wins: 22.6%
4 wins: 3.6%
3 and below: ZERO.


DIVISION 7:
8-10 wins: 100%
7 wins: 98.4%
6 wins: 91.3%
5 wins: 65.7
4 wins: 35.7
3 wins: 4 teams would have finished in the top 12, did not track all three win teams who did not make it.
 

justalurker

Active member
it honestly wouldnt shock me if in the next few years you saw teams opting out of the playoffs. Who wants to take a 4-6/3-7 team against a powerhouse?
No one enjoys getting physically dominated and beat 60-0. This isn't the movies, where they plucky underdog finds a way. Its just a butt whoopin and a long bus ride home.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
it honestly wouldnt shock me if in the next few years you saw teams opting out of the playoffs. Who wants to take a 4-6/3-7 team against a powerhouse?
No one enjoys getting physically dominated and beat 60-0. This isn't the movies, where they plucky underdog finds a way. Its just a butt whoopin and a long bus ride home.
I said it in another thread but I see that as rare.

Only way I see it happening is in some schools who have very low numbers and experience some injuries late in the season and just cannot field a team.

You know it is coming, but I wonder when we will see some kids on overmatched teams and are strong athletes in other sports sit out the playoff game to mitigate an injury forcing them to possibly miss hoops/baseball.

You know it will happen. I imagine they will sit out under the guise they are injured and not flat out say it but I see it happening.
 

smurfyeah19

Active member
it honestly wouldnt shock me if in the next few years you saw teams opting out of the playoffs. Who wants to take a 4-6/3-7 team against a powerhouse?
No one enjoys getting physically dominated and beat 60-0. This isn't the movies, where they plucky underdog finds a way. Its just a butt whoopin and a long bus ride home.
To be fair, those days are mostly done with the running clock. It sucks because it's HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL, but we see it even today where there's 40 bowl games and teams with losing records playing in them.
 

justalurker

Active member
I said it in another thread but I see that as rare.

Only way I see it happening is in some schools who have very low numbers and experience some injuries late in the season and just cannot field a team.

You know it is coming, but I wonder when we will see some kids on overmatched teams and are strong athletes in other sports sit out the playoff game to mitigate an injury forcing them to possibly miss hoops/baseball.

You know it will happen. I imagine they will sit out under the guise they are injured and not flat out say it but I see it happening.

I totally agree about the opt out, and I cant really blame them. If you are a good bball player but on a 4-6 team that has to play Coldwater, or Kirtland, or Harltley, or Massilon, why risk that carrying the ball 25 times and getting lit up as a QB or RB? Its a meaningless game that could ruin your bball season.
 

LELL

Well-known member
I totally agree about the opt out, and I cant really blame them. If you are a good bball player but on a 4-6 team that has to play Coldwater, or Kirtland, or Harltley, or Massilon, why risk that carrying the ball 25 times and getting lit up as a QB or RB? Its a meaningless game that could ruin your bball season.
Just think if Coldwater was 4-6 and traveled to the higher seed for the first playoff game. Yikes!
 

LELL

Well-known member
Yeah, some team is going to be pissed to be a 3 seed and their reward is facing a fort recovery or St. Henry.

But the MAC is the one anomaly is this whole thing. Maybe a mooney or some other smaller private that plays a loaded schedule.
I like teams that play a loaded schedule. Gets them ready for the playoff run.
 

dograt

Well-known member
Yeah, some team is going to be pissed to be a 3 seed and their reward is facing a fort recovery or St. Henry.

But the MAC is the one anomaly is this whole thing. Maybe a mooney or some other smaller private that plays a loaded schedule.

I think the schools that are around big cities might fit this. But the further out you are, the more you just have to tighten up and play the schools around you regardless of size. I bet there are smaller schools all over that play in leagues of mostly bigger schools that will do just fine if they could only make it in. I'm not saying championship teams, but teams that aren't going to fit the "oh no the #2 team is going to injure our poor poor #15 baby boys" narrative many are sticking with.

I'd love to see someone figure historical points from the other perspective. How many times has a #1,2,or 3 seed only been there because they ran through a poor league and really isn't that good? Are there always scary good teams? sure. Are they always the #1 seed? not even close.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
I think the schools that are around big cities might fit this. But the further out you are, the more you just have to tighten up and play the schools around you regardless of size. I bet there are smaller schools all over that play in leagues of mostly bigger schools that will do just fine if they could only make it in. I'm not saying championship teams, but teams that aren't going to fit the "oh no the #2 team is going to injure our poor poor #15 baby boys" narrative many are sticking with.

I'd love to see someone figure historical points from the other perspective. How many times has a #1,2,or 3 seed only been there because they ran through a poor league and really isn't that good? Are there always scary good teams? sure. Are they always the #1 seed? not even close.
The OHSAA, in their playoff press releases, used to give stats on the historical first round records of the seeds and it was always interesting.

I want to say it was 15-20% of 5-8 won the first round games. I know the number was significant enough as proof that 5-8 did belong.

This fall I will be crafting a spreadsheet, because I am a numbers guy, on the records of the seeds for the playoffs (likely in just D5-D7 that I care about) moving foward.


With that said, what % of 9-16 winning games will be seen as proof positive it was a good idea?
 

BirdDog10

Well-known member
With that said, what % of 9-16 winning games will be seen as proof positive it was a good idea?
I could give a crap less about what 9-16 seeds win 1 game. It doesn't take much for a 7-3 9-12 seed to pick off a 4-8 seed, which is why I thought 12 would work.

4 years from now, show me 1 single 13-16 seed that makes it to the regional championship or state semi-finals. If there's more than 1 13-16 seed that makes it to the final 4 in the next 4 years, I'll eat my words. Until then, they don't belong.
 

dograt

Well-known member
2 different schools of thought:
1- the playoffs exist to get the best team to win it all
2- the playoffs exist to reward teams who perform well.

I think which camp you fall into might have an impact on how you feel about this. And before you say a 3-7 team shouldn't be rewarded, I agree. But if it takes letting a 3-7 team in to also create a vehicle to let in a 6-4 team that plays 'up' and does deserve it, then I am for letting kids in.

I know the coaches DO NOT AGREE!! There are many against 16, but there are more than you might think that like 16 (at least as opposed to 8). There are many who are tired of going 7-3 or 8-2 and missing. They are in a league with 2 tough programs, or a smaller school in their league and always feel like they are close but no cigar.
 

330740

Active member
2 different schools of thought:
1- the playoffs exist to get the best team to win it all
2- the playoffs exist to reward teams who perform well.

I think which camp you fall into might have an impact on how you feel about this. And before you say a 3-7 team shouldn't be rewarded, I agree. But if it takes letting a 3-7 team in to also create a vehicle to let in a 6-4 team that plays 'up' and does deserve it, then I am for letting kids in.

I know the coaches DO NOT AGREE!! There are many against 16, but there are more than you might think that like 16 (at least as opposed to 8). There are many who are tired of going 7-3 or 8-2 and missing. They are in a league with 2 tough programs, or a smaller school in their league and always feel like they are close but no cigar.
12 teams was a good combination of the the thoughts. If you go 8-2 or 7-3 and get left out bc your conference doesn’t give u enough points those teams should get a chance to compete to see if they actually belong in the playoffs
 

thavoice

Well-known member
That is why I was okay with the 12 teams. After looking at the numbers, quite a few 7 plus win teams were missing the playoffs.
Teams can only do so much with their schedule and I am not a fan of all the league hopping with Harbins being a big reason.

There are more to conferences than just Harbins such as the other sports and geography.

Plus, there are years you just have bad luck and your OOC opponents have down years compared to what they normally have.
12 teams was a good combination of the the thoughts. If you go 8-2 or 7-3 and get left out bc your conference doesn’t give u enough points those teams should get a chance to compete to see if they actually belong in the playoff
 

exit322

Member
The OHSAA, in their playoff press releases, used to give stats on the historical first round records of the seeds and it was always interesting.

I want to say it was 15-20% of 5-8 won the first round games. I know the number was significant enough as proof that 5-8 did belong.

This fall I will be crafting a spreadsheet, because I am a numbers guy, on the records of the seeds for the playoffs (likely in just D5-D7 that I care about) moving foward.


With that said, what % of 9-16 winning games will be seen as proof positive it was a good idea?

As just a guess, I think the 9-12 seeds will be in that 15-20% range, while the 13-16 teams will be far, far, far below that. From 35 NCAA basketball tournaments between 1985 and 2009, here are the records by seed:

#1 v 16: 139-1
#2 v 15: 132-8
#3 v 14: 119-21
#4 v 13: 111-28
#5 v 12: 90-47
#6 v 11: 88-51
#7 v 10: 85-52
#8 v 9: 69-71

My guess is that 2-6 seeds will probably do a bit better percentage wise in the OHSAA playoffs than the NCAA tournament stats, while 1 and 2 are right on pace there as "will win almost always," while 7/8/9/10 are probably going to be crap shoots.
 

WishYouWereHere

Active member
I posted this earlier in another post, but here it is again...
* 10 game regular season.
* Top 8 (or 12) in each region make playoffs.
* Any other teams that didn’t make it in, they have 2 weeks to play more games (a bowl game or 4-team bowl tournament). Could be an agreement with a neighboring league, a cross-county rival, etc, and maybe create a trophy of some type.
* And of course, teams can pack it up after week 10.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
In 2019 region 23 Gisonburg went 10-0 and missed the playoffs. What's even more interesting to me is Fort Recovery went 4-6 and was 16th. How good were they? They opened the season with a 35-0 win over Sidney Lehman and then took a very talented Valley View team to a 16-13 final. The wheels kind of fell off once MAC competition started, but that was a darn good 4-6 team that I said at the time could have won the CCC with the exception of Fort Loramie.

Looking further down the list of teams that year in region 23 was a 6-4 team that would have missed the 16 team playoffs.
 

dhsdog06

Well-known member
In 2019 region 23 Gisonburg went 10-0 and missed the playoffs. What's even more interesting to me is Fort Recovery went 4-6 and was 16th. How good were they? They opened the season with a 35-0 win over Sidney Lehman and then took a very talented Valley View team to a 16-13 final. The wheels kind of fell off once MAC competition started, but that was a darn good 4-6 team that I said at the time could have won the CCC with the exception of Fort Loramie.

Looking further down the list of teams that year in region 23 was a 6-4 team that would have missed the 16 team playoffs.

Hard to tell by common opponent since Fort Recovery didn't play St. John's who LCC beat.

But based on the fact LCC lost to Fairview, I would have given FR decent odds to win that game. Common opponent between FR and Fairview was Anna, and both lost by 34.
 
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