CFP 2021

  1. Georgia
  2. Michigan
  3. Alabama
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Ohio State
  8. Ole Miss
  9. Baylor
  10. Oregon
  11. Michigan State
  12. BYU
  13. Iowa
  14. Oklahoma
  15. Pittsburgh
  16. Wake Forest
  17. Utah
  18. NC State
  19. San Diego State
  20. Clemson
  21. Houston
  22. Arkansas
  23. Kentucky
  24. Louisiana
  25. Texas A&M
 
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AEW Champion said:
Oklahoma State at #5 over Notre Dame is preposterous! Is the committee sniffing glue?!?!

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

AEW Champion is runnin’ the show
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Their best win exited the rankings. They currently have 0 top 25 wins. Oklahoma St has two top 14 wins already - #9 Baylor and #14 Oklahoma.

By the way, Baylor got absolutely hosed having Ole Miss jump them. It looks like if the favorites win out, but they beat the Cowboys then they'll fall short of that 4th spot behind either 1-loss Notre Dame, 2-loss Alabama or 2-loss Ohio St.
 
If there’s been one constant for the committee: they value ranked wins. Not surprising ND is at 6th with 0 ranked wins and no HC.
 
Had a lot of free time to think, so here it goes.

Here are the possibilities following this weekend games:

SEC: Georgia/Alabama (1 Loss)
B10: Michigan (1 Loss) or Iowa (2 Loss)
B12: Ok St (1 Loss) or Baylor (2 Loss)
AAC: Cincinnati (Undefeated or 1 Loss)
P12: Oregon (2 Loss)
ACC: Wake or Pittsburgh (2 Loss)
At-Larges: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Losers of Conference Championship Games

Given this information, here are some top 4 results that could be possible:

SCENARIO 1: All favored teams win
1 Georgia (SEC Champ)
2 Michigan (B10 Champ)
3 Cincinnati (AAC Champ)
4 Oklahoma St or At-Large (Alabama, ND)

SCENARIO 2: All upsets
1 Alabama (SEC Champ)
2 Georgia (At-Large)
3 Notre Dame (At-Large)
4 Best At-Large or 2nd Best Champion
*Baylor, Iowa, Oregon (Conference Champions)
*Oklahoma State, Michigan, Ohio State, Cincinnati (At-Large Choices)

SCENARIO 3: Georgia, Michigan, Cincy fall
1 Alabama (SEC Champion)
2 Georgia (Bet At-Large)
3 Oklahoma State (B12 Champion)
4 Notre Dame (At-Large)
SCENARIO 3A: Georgia falls
1 Alabama (SEC Champion)
2 Georgia (At-Large)
3 Michigan (B10 Champion)
4 Cincinnati (AAC Champion)
Scenario 3B: Georgia, Michigan fall
1 Alabama (SEC Champion)
2 Georgia (Best At-Large)
3 Oklahoma State (B12 Champion)
4 Cincinnati (AAC Champion)
SCENARIO 3C: Georgia, Cincy fall
1 Alabama (SEC Champ)
2 Georgia (Best At-Large)
3 Michigan (B10 Champ)
4 Oklahoma State (B12 Champ)

Scenario 4: Michigan falls
1 Georgia (SEC Champ)
2 Oklahoma State (B12 Champ)
3 Cincinnati (AAC Champ)
4 Best Champion vs Best At-Large
SCENARIO 4A: Michigan, Cincy fall
1 Georgia (SEC Champ)
2 Oklahoma State (B12 Champ)
3 Notre Dame (At-Large)
4 Best At-Large vs Best Champion

SCENARIO 5: Cincy falls
1 Georgia (SEC Champ)
2 Michigan (B10 Champ)
3 Oklahoma State (B12 Champ)
4 Notre Dame vs At-Larges

SCENARIO 6: Oklahoma St falls
1 Georgia (SEC Champ)
2 Michigan (B10 Champ)
3 Cincy (AAC Champ)
4 Best At-Large vs Best Champion
SCENARIO 6A: Ok State, Georgia fall
1 Alabama (SEC Champ)
2 Georgia (Best At-Large)
3 Michigan (B10 Champ)
4 Cincinnati (AAC Champ)
SCENARIO 6B: Ok State, Michigan fall
1 Georgia (SEC Champ)
2 Cincinnati (AAC Champ)
3 Best At-Large vs Conference Champ
4 Best At-Large vs Conference Champ
SCENARIO 6C: Ok State, Cincy fall
1 Georgia (SEC Champ)
2 Michigan (B10 Champ)
3 Notre Dame (At-Large)
4 Best At-Large vs Best Conf Champ
SCENARIO 6D: Ok State, UGA, Michigan, Cincy fall
1 Alabama (SEC)
2 Georgia (Best At-Large)
3 Best Conference Champion
4 Alabama (2nd Best At-Large)

The way I see it is the committee will need to weigh 1 & 2 Loss Champions against 1 & 2 loss At-Larges. Notre Dame can benefit the most by only having 1 Loss to compare against other At-Larges and Conference Champs.
 
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If Ok St, Alabama and Cincy lose will tOSU get in? Seems the committee is still pretty high on them as the first two loss team. A long shot I’m sure but this could be one crazy weekend. Personally I want to see:
Georgia
Michigan
Cincy
Ok st
Would love to see Cincy beat Meatchicken ?
 
zeeman said:
If Ok St, Alabama and Cincy lose will tOSU get in? Seems the committee is still pretty high on them as the first two loss team. A long shot I’m sure but this could be one crazy weekend. Personally I want to see:
Georgia
Michigan
Cincy
Ok st
Would love to see Cincy beat Meatchicken ?
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I would think Baylor as a 2-loss Conference Champ would jump Ohio St for a spot, they would have wins over 3 top 15, potentially 2 top 10 teams in Oklahoma St, BYU and then Oklahoma. But then again the Committee did just drop them a spot even after winning with their backup QB.
 
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Baylor and OK State both looked anything but playoff caliber. OK State obviously out, two-loss Baylor almost certainly out, too.

And then there were five …

UGA
Michigan
Bama
UC
Notre Dame

UC and Bama are on the clock … 17 minutes and counting.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …

AEW Champion: Greatness Personified
 
The 4 best teams are

Michigan
Alabama
Georgia
Ohio State

Cincinnati will get in this year probably against Alabama.
 
Matchups are almost assured to be Alabama/UC and Michigan/Georgia. The only thing there may be any doubt to is the top seed. I think UM has made a legitimate argument for it but I'd be surprised if it's not Alabama. Seeding will accordingly follow to prevent a semifinal rematch of Bama/Georgia.
 
Michigan will beat Georgia, so no rematch. Georgia's qb is not good; JT Daniels gives them a better shot. The UM defense is just too tough for the Georgia running game.
 
Bama gets an essential bye. I hope this is a future lesson.

I also agree UM can beat GA. They have to play very well to do so but they can do it.
 
adselder09 said:
Yep. There's an argument to be had for Michigan over Alabama, and also Cincinnati over Georgia, but I think the Committee will avoid that rematch.
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I can see:

Michigan
Alabama
Cincinnati
Georgia

Admit it will probably be A, M, G, C, but as NWW noted either way it will be Bama-Cincy and Michigan-Georgia.

Maybe, they should forget the seedings and just announce the matchups. lol
 
ronnie mund said:
Curious as to what the lesson is as well and whether or not that lesson was also learned from 2014 FSU, 2015 MSU, 2016 OSU, 2018 ND, 2019, Oklahoma, or 2020 Clemson.
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Exactly, they did the right thing this year and these are without a doubt the best four teams
 
zeeman said:
Exactly, they did the right thing this year and these are without a doubt the best four teams
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They got it right because of the criteria they set up. No doubt. I think what Cincinnati did was awesome. I am a big fan of Fickell and Tressel. With that said there are probably 4-5 teams not in the playoff who would beat UC most nights.
 
Utah, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State, MSU, Clemson, Pitt, Auburn, A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Ole Miss are teams that would give UC fits.
 
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