Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic spreads from China to US

eastisbest

Well-known member
The sad side of me is thinking those idiots blairing their "music" in the park will be first to go, solving a couple problems.
 

irish_buffalo

Well-known member
Really odd virus.

I hear all kinds of mild case stories and then I read where a cop from Detroit who was 38 died yesterday. How a healthy 34 year old from Italy died recently. I understand these are outliers but it is odd how some get hammered.

The virus really has not taken hold here so there is an assumption that everything will be ok. There is no doubt it is hard on older folks (much like regular flu). I just hope we have enough needed supplies for when it strikes everyone's parents/grandparents.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
Seems like Imperial College of London isn't the only Brit university putting out demographic models on c-virus progression. Oxford has a much more optimistic take:



The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.

The head of the study, professor Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford theoretical epidemiologist, said she still supports the U.K.'s decision to shut down the country to suppress the virus even if her research winds up being proven correct. But she also doesn't appear to be a big fan of the work done by the Imperial College team. "I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model," she said.

If her work is accurate, that would likely mean a large swath of the population has built up resistance to the virus. Theoretically, then, social restrictions could ease sooner than anticipated.


If this model is correct and like the alarmist models all modeling of the pandemic at this stage is suspect then Trump is right to think we could get back to work in the next couple of weeks.

I hope Dr. Acton is aware of this model.
And if she is correct, this virus really was not that deadly. I'm going to bet her model is off, but I still think we should get back to work.
 

y2h

Well-known member
The SARS Co-V outbreak from 2003 most certainly originated from a live animal market in China. For 17 years since SARS, scientists have been warning that a pandemic from these live animal markets in China was inevitable. The world, including WHO, did nothing about it and here we are. This pandemic was completely preventable.

China knew about this new virus as early as November of 2019 and no later than the first week in December of 2019. They tried to cover it and allowed millions to travel in and out of China spreading it all over the world. China also refused to allow world experts in to help assess and contain the virus, which likely would have made a significant difference. China is not our friend.
China is no ones friend. If they were an ice cream flavor they'd be pralines and .
 

y2h

Well-known member
Trump initially dropped the ball, started to listen to experts and quickly got with the program.

He is clearly now back to following his "gut" with the stupid mention of opening things back up. The guy cannot get out of his own way.
Yes how stupid to get people working again. Let's take the rest of the year off...what's the worst that can happen?
 

y2h

Well-known member
Rough date. At some point yes, we have to get on with everything but I think it would be foolish to put all of these measures in place only to take them away prematurely. If that becomes reality there was little point for these measures in the first place (and they are working).
Working to tank the economy and explode debt and inflation...winning.
 

boiler

Well-known member
Really odd virus.

I hear all kinds of mild case stories and then I read where a cop from Detroit who was 38 died yesterday. How a healthy 34 year old from Italy died recently. I understand these are outliers but it is odd how some get hammered.

The virus really has not taken hold here so there is an assumption that everything will be ok. There is no doubt it is hard on older folks (much like regular flu). I just hope we have enough needed supplies for when it strikes everyone's parents/grandparents.
I wonder how it will be affecting the younger group that vape constantly?
 

Rohbino

Well-known member
How many times does it have to be explained to you that Germany isn't testing post-mortem?
The lack of post-mortem testing is accurate but there may also be some claim that Germany is better prepared than many countries. It does appear that testing has been done in Germany at an earlier point. Marylyn Addo, who heads the infectiology department at Hamburg’s University Medical Centre, claims this: “One advantage Germany has is that we started doing professional contact tracing when the first cases were reported,” Addo said. “It bought us some time to prepare our clinics for the coming storm.”

With only a small sliver of Austria and Switzerland separating Northern Italy from Germany it would be expected that the death-to-case ratio of the two areas would be similar. Addo suggested, though, that a likely explanation for the discrepancy in figures between Italy and Germany is that while northern Italy’s hospitals are being overrun with new patients, Germany’s are not yet at full capacity and have had more time to clear beds, stock up on equipment and redistribute personnel. It will be interesting to see if that trend holds.

Medical specialists such as Addo also do not believe that the number of unreported cases is statistically significant. “I have yet to see any data that would suggest a large number of untested corona-related deaths that don’t show up in the statistics,” she said.

Overall it appears that the reporting methodology that Germany is using does lend itself to a lower percentage of deaths but it doesn't seem to account for the entire discrepancy. It appears that preparation is also a contributing factor to the statistics. In my travels, and merely through observations, the overall population of Italy appears to be more healthy than the population of Germany so if it is true that lack of post-mortem statistics is accounting for only a small portion of a smaller death-to-case ratio, there must be some other factor(s).
 

Hammerdrill

Well-known member
The lack of post-mortem testing is accurate but there may also be some claim that Germany is better prepared than many countries. It does appear that testing has been done in Germany at an earlier point. Marylyn Addo, who heads the infectiology department at Hamburg’s University Medical Centre, claims this: “One advantage Germany has is that we started doing professional contact tracing when the first cases were reported,” Addo said. “It bought us some time to prepare our clinics for the coming storm.”

With only a small sliver of Austria and Switzerland separating Northern Italy from Germany it would be expected that the death-to-case ratio of the two areas would be similar. Addo suggested, though, that a likely explanation for the discrepancy in figures between Italy and Germany is that while northern Italy’s hospitals are being overrun with new patients, Germany’s are not yet at full capacity and have had more time to clear beds, stock up on equipment and redistribute personnel. It will be interesting to see if that trend holds.

Medical specialists such as Addo also do not believe that the number of unreported cases is statistically significant. “I have yet to see any data that would suggest a large number of untested corona-related deaths that don’t show up in the statistics,” she said.

Overall it appears that the reporting methodology that Germany is using does lend itself to a lower percentage of deaths but it doesn't seem to account for the entire discrepancy. It appears that preparation is also a contributing factor to the statistics. In my travels, and merely through observations, the overall population of Italy appears to be more healthy than the population of Germany so if it is true that lack of post-mortem statistics is accounting for only a small portion of a smaller death-to-case ratio, there must be some other factor(s).
Italy was over run because of all the Chinese that came into that region directly from Wuhan area. That and they have the oldest population on the planet.
 

OhioBobcatFan06

Well-known member
Medical specialists such as Addo also do not believe that the number of unreported cases is statistically significant. “I have yet to see any data that would suggest a large number of untested corona-related deaths that don’t show up in the statistics,” she said.
Obviously there wouldn't be any data, that's the entire reason they don't show up in the statistics in the first place...

:rolleyes:
 

lotr10

Well-known member
As the usual suspects go after Trump on his response to this the most odious is Mayor De Blasio from New York City. If you want to ID an incompetent villain you need look no further then this man.

From the MASSIVE February 5 demonstration in Chinatown to support Wuhan and blast Trump's closing of the border with China to De Blasio urging New Yorkers LESS THEN TWO WEEKS AGO, to go about their business as if nothing was happening. This included him telling his people to go see a movie or go out to dinner.


And for runner up lets not forget Governor Cuomo who in 2015 was offered a chance to buy thousands of ventilators but he opted instead to support some green energy initiative. This in spite of the FACT that NY State sits on top of a massive Natural Gas deposit that they refuse to exploit.

As of today more then 1/3 of all the covid19 deaths in America are coming out of NYC. And you can make a credible argument that Mayor De Blasio & Governor Cuomo bear a great deal of responsibility for this.
 

lotr10

Well-known member
When we take the lead should we change the name to Covid-45 or the Trump virus?
When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor less then 2500 Americans were killed. By the end of WW2 we had killed millions of Japanese. Did that mean that we started the war and that Japan did not attack us?

Why are you shilling for China here? Their lies early on in the pandemic have cost the rest of the world thousands of dead. China's refusal to KEEP their citizens home and instead to allow them to travel abroad also contributed to the carnage.

And now the Chinese government is lying to us about the prevalence of the c-virus in their country. Unless you believe the numbers coming out of China today?
 

AllSports12

Moderator
Seems like Imperial College of London isn't the only Brit university putting out demographic models on c-virus progression. Oxford has a much more optimistic take:



The Oxford research suggests the pandemic is in a later stage than previously thought and estimates the virus has already infected at least millions of people worldwide. In the United Kingdom, which the study focuses on, half the population would have already been infected. If accurate, that would mean transmission began around mid-January and the vast majority of cases presented mild or no symptoms.

The head of the study, professor Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford theoretical epidemiologist, said she still supports the U.K.'s decision to shut down the country to suppress the virus even if her research winds up being proven correct. But she also doesn't appear to be a big fan of the work done by the Imperial College team. "I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model," she said.

If her work is accurate, that would likely mean a large swath of the population has built up resistance to the virus. Theoretically, then, social restrictions could ease sooner than anticipated.


If this model is correct and like the alarmist models all modeling of the pandemic at this stage is suspect then Trump is right to think we could get back to work in the next couple of weeks.

I hope Dr. Acton is aware of this model.
Did you see her try to walk back the "100,000 infected" claim from a couple of weeks ago? She claimed that she didn't want it wait til 1% of the population was infected before she acted...... Said it came out wrong to the public......

The reporter whiffed on an easy follow up question........ so I'll ask it.

Now, Dr. Acton.......

How about that 1.1 million that will die ? Do you still stand by that?
 

lotr10

Well-known member
Did you see her try to walk back the "100,000 infected" claim from a couple of weeks ago? She claimed that she didn't want it wait til 1% of the population was infected before she acted...... Said it came out wrong to the public......

Now, Dr. Acton.......

How about that 1.1 million that will die ?
I heard it on the radio and it came across as pathetic. Given her answers to any questions along these lines I'm surprised the news media isn't more skeptical and hammers Dr. Acton over what comes across as evasive answers.

But she did read a note from a 9 year old girl.
 

Happygoluckky

Well-known member
When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor less then 2500 Americans were killed. By the end of WW2 we had killed millions of Japanese. Did that mean that we started the war and that Japan did not attack us?
Because we were bombed by a virus not a country.



Why are you shilling for China here? Their lies early on in the pandemic have cost the rest of the world thousands of dead. China's refusal to KEEP their citizens home and instead to allow them to travel abroad also contributed to the carnage.
I am not shilling for China their inititial response was political self interest. (similar to our presidents) both have caused the virus to spread within and outside of their countries.

And now the Chinese government is lying to us about the prevalence of the c-virus in their country. Unless you believe the numbers coming out of China today?
I don't believe the chinese governemnt or our president on anything to do with the c-virus.
 
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